Episode Summary: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 436. "Is Trump Gifting Ukraine to Putin?"

Release Date: August 12, 2025

In this compelling episode of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart delve deep into the intricate web of international affairs, focusing primarily on the high-stakes interactions between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The discussion navigates through the potential ramifications of their impending summit, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the evolving landscape of modern warfare with drones, and pressing domestic issues in the UK, including the controversial classification of Palestine Action as a terrorist organization.

1. The Trump-Putin Summit: Implications and Analysis

The episode opens with Rory Stewart highlighting the precarious balance in the international arena:

Rory Stewart [00:13]: "Up on the show today, all the cards again are on Putin's side. There's nothing Trump will ever actually really do to punish him."

Alastair Campbell echoes this sentiment, expressing his unease about the forthcoming summit:

Alastair Campbell [00:21]: "What's perfect for Putin is this idea that he and Trump are coming together to decide what to tell Europe is going to happen to a major part of Europe."

The hosts dissect the historical and symbolic significance of the summit's location in Alaska, drawing parallels to the 1867 sale of Alaska from Russia to the United States for just over $7 million. This historical context underscores the potential gravity of the discussions, especially concerning territorial concessions in Ukraine.

Alastair Campbell [06:54]: "Just imagine, I'm not Ukrainian and I'm not, I don't, I'm not remotely involved in these discussions. But even I, at the moment, I'm waking up feeling a little bit sick about what's going to happen. Just imagine what Zelenskyy's feeling like."

2. Trump's Consistent Inconsistencies and the Ukraine Dilemma

Rory Stewart provides a nuanced view of Trump's approach to foreign policy, particularly concerning Ukraine:

Rory Stewart [03:52]: "There's a really interesting theme, I think, which is true of everything that Trump's done so far, from Ukraine all the way through to tariffs... On the surface, he changes his position a lot... But actually beneath the surface of all this stuff, he remains remarkably consistent."

He anticipates that Trump’s proposed deal with Putin will mirror earlier proposals, likely benefiting Russia by allowing territorial concessions from Ukraine without exerting substantial pressure.

Rory Stewart [08:23]: "So essentially, he remains remarkably consistent because my guess is that the kind of deal he's going to try to strike with Vladimir Putin this week is going to be very similar to the kind of thing we would have been talking about in January."

3. The Historical Symbolism of Alaska and Yalta

Alastair Campbell delves into the symbolic resonance of Alaska and historical conferences like Yalta, emphasizing how these elements play into Putin's strategic advantages during the summit.

Alastair Campbell [06:37]: "Alaska has its own amazing symbolism in this because Alaska used to be Russia. And then when Alexander II was in deep trouble financially, they sold it to America for just over $7 million in 1867."

He further connects this symbolism to the potential discussions on Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, highlighting the critical nature of these territorial issues.

4. The Diminishing Leverage Over Ukraine

Rory Stewart addresses the shifting dynamics of U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump's administration:

Rory Stewart [17:43]: "One thing I think people haven't focused on enough is that Trump has lost a lot of the leverage that he had over Zelenskyy."

With the U.S. scaling back direct support and transitioning to selling arms to European allies, the traditional leverage the U.S. holds over Ukraine diminishes, potentially weakening Ukraine’s negotiating position.

5. Modern Warfare: The Rise of Drones in Ukraine

Transitioning to military technology, the hosts discuss the transformative role of drones in the Ukrainian conflict:

Rory Stewart [19:50]: "There are two sorts. There's a kind of analogue drone and there's a digital drone... 70 or 80% of the casualties on the front line are currently created by these pretty basic cheap drones."

They explore the tactical advantages and vulnerabilities introduced by drone warfare, including issues related to jamming and the proliferation of inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The discussion highlights how drones have redefined combat strategies and the nature of modern warfare.

6. Palestine Action and the UK's Terrorism Classification Controversy

Shifting focus to domestic issues, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart scrutinize the UK government's decision to classify Palestine Action as a terrorist organization—a move that has sparked significant debate and backlash.

Alastair Campbell [37:06]: "What is the big argument? They then said that they were very stymied at the moment because there are some court cases going on at the moment which are under severe reporting restrictions."

The hosts critique the rationale behind this classification, arguing that Palestine Action's actions, akin to those of a direct action group like Extinction Rebellion, do not meet the threshold of terrorism. They emphasize concerns about government overreach and the erosion of civil liberties.

Rory Stewart [42:25]: "It's mad. It's mad. I'm afraid I don't believe the Home Office. I think they're got it completely out of proportion and I think they've got their knickers in a twist."

The discussion references a letter from Wing Commander Andrew Brooks, advocating against the terrorist designation, and condemns the potential mass arrests and the impact on activists who pose no genuine threat.

7. The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

Alastair Campbell brings attention to the deteriorating situation in Gaza, highlighting the devastating humanitarian impact and the suppression of journalistic freedom:

Alastair Campbell [46:50]: "Gaza is just increasingly horrific. Incredible aerial footage this week of, you know, before and after. Just seeing the level of the extent of devastation and the death that is, of the many deaths that has really cut through this week."

Rory Stewart underscores the critical role of journalists like Anas Al Sharif in bringing the grim realities of Gaza to the global audience, despite the risks posed by the ongoing conflict.

Rory Stewart [48:20]: "They have evidence that we can't see that says he was Hamas. Could they really not have taken him out without taking out five of his colleagues?"

8. Reflections on Democratic Values and International Order

Concluding the episode, the hosts reflect on the broader implications of the discussed topics on global democracy and the international rules-based order. They caution against the normalization of authoritarian tactics and the undermining of democratic institutions.

Rory Stewart [28:43]: "I think we've all of us got to be very, very careful because let's just look at this week alone... making democracy in the United States and throughout the world totally undermined and the rules-based international order completely undermined."

Conclusion

This episode of The Rest Is Politics adeptly intertwines multiple threads of contemporary global politics, offering listeners a comprehensive analysis of the fraught Trump-Putin dynamics, the evolving nature of warfare, and the contentious issues within the UK’s domestic sphere. Campbell and Stewart provide discerning insights, underpinned by firsthand accounts and expert commentary, making this episode an essential listen for those keen on understanding the complexities of modern political landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• Rory Stewart [03:52]: "On the surface, he changes his position a lot... But actually beneath the surface of all this stuff, he remains remarkably consistent."

• Alastair Campbell [06:54]: "Just imagine, I'm not Ukrainian and I'm not... I'm not remotely involved in these discussions. But even I... I'm waking up feeling a little bit sick about what's going to happen."

• Rory Stewart [17:43]: "Trump has lost a lot of the leverage that he had over Zelenskyy."

• Alastair Campbell [37:06]: "What is the big argument? They then said that they were very stymied at the moment..."

• Rory Stewart [42:25]: "It's mad. It's mad. I'm afraid I don't believe the Home Office."

• Alastair Campbell [46:50]: "Gaza is just increasingly horrific. Incredible aerial footage this week..."

Note: Time stamps correspond to the transcript provided and are included to contextualize the quotes within the episode.