The Rest Is Politics – Episode 438

“Inside the Trump-Putin Summit: What Really Happened in Alaska?”
August 16, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Overview

This episode centers on the dramatic Trump-Putin summit that took place in Alaska—a meeting loaded with global consequences and intense media scrutiny. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart unpack what happened during and after the summit, analyze the optics, discuss international reactions (particularly from Ukraine and Europe), recall their insider experiences with Putin, and debate what this could mean for future peace—and instability—in Europe.

The tone is by turns incredulous, analytical, and deeply concerned, with both hosts bringing their characteristic mix of insider insight, skepticism, and sharp wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Atmosphere and Stakes of the Alaska Summit

• Widespread Anxiety and Uncertainty

  • Both hosts remark on the global tension as leaders like Zelenskyy and others stayed up throughout the night waiting for the summit's outcome.
  • “World leaders… will have been watching their televisions, trying to guess what on earth was happening during that three hours.” – Rory Stewart (01:47)
  • The summit featured no traditional press preamble and went straight into a three-hour closed-door meeting, heightening speculation.

• Putin’s First US Visit as an Indicted War Criminal

  • Heavy symbolism as Putin landed on US soil with all the ceremonial trappings, despite his pariah status internationally.

2. Press Conference: A Disorienting Anti-Climax

• Putin Takes Center Stage

  • Unorthodox: Putin opened the press conference, spoke three times longer than Trump, and took no questions.
  • “The moment Putin started, it was basically a history lesson… unless there’s something to come from Trump, then this is a disaster, particularly for Trump.” – Alastair Campbell (05:07)

• No Concrete “Deal” Emerges

  • Instead of a clear agreement, there was vagueness, body language scrutiny, and media confusion.
  • “It was literally, what… just happened there?” – Alastair Campbell (06:16)

• The Optics and Theatrics

  • American soldiers rolled out a red carpet for Putin, bombers flew overhead; Trump applauded, yet looked tired and “not his usual confident self.”
  • Trump and Putin were seen together in cars and photo-ops, but something seemed to change between initial bonhomie and the chilly broader meeting.

3. The Power Dynamic: Who Was Really in Charge?

• Putin Called the Shots

  • Putin’s smirk and body language were read as celebratory and threatening, hinting that he was in control—even on US soil.
  • “The whole pitch of the thing was Putin’s in charge here, even though he was in America.” – Alastair Campbell (09:01)

• The Absence of a Ceasefire Discussion

  • “The C word, the ceasefire, was not even mentioned… He [Putin] didn’t get pushed on that.” – Alastair Campbell (09:24)
  • In parallel, fighting continued in Ukraine even as the summit unfolded.

4. Shifting Expectations and Erosion of Western Leverage

• How Far Expectations Have Fallen

  • Rory recounts the shift from aiming to defeat Russia to simply hoping that Trump wouldn’t make a disastrous deal:

    “Our expectations have got lower and lower and lower… The last discussion… whatever you do, just don’t sign a deal. Just don’t agree to any land swaps.” (11:00)

• Trump’s Instincts Remain Unchanged

  • Despite pressure, Trump’s “instincts remain unaltered—pro Putin, pro Russia, contemptuous of Europe and Ukraine.” (13:35)
  • “All that’s happened… is a sort of miraculous attempt by Ukraine, Europe, his own officials… just to stop Trump from doing what it almost feels like he’s inevitably, eventually going to do, which is sell out Ukraine.” – Rory Stewart (13:58)

5. Theories, Suspicions, and Conspiracies

• Why Hold the Meeting at All?

  • Alastair muses if the summit was just a ploy to distract from scandals like Epstein or if “Russia really, really does have something on Trump.” (14:21)

• Body Language and Chill

  • The “switch” in body language from camaraderie to coldness between Trump and Putin—possibly something said in the car?

6. Decoding the Potential Deals on Offer

• Best vs. Worst-Case Scenarios for Ukraine

  • Rory: The best hope is Ukraine keeps sovereignty and security guarantees but loses territorial control; worst is disarmament, pro-Russian leadership, no NATO or EU, and Russia keeps all taken territories. (18:00–20:00)
  • “When you were setting out what might be palatable to Ukraine… they were a million miles away from any of that last night.” – Alastair Campbell (20:18)

• Trump’s Obsession with Land and Minerals

  • Rory lampoons Trump’s worldview as “childlike,” focused on “big countries, minerals, oil and gas”—outdated, simplistic, and out of step with what actually makes America wealthy. (21:56–23:14)

7. The Return of Strongman Politics

• Trump’s Admiration for Autocrats
  • Reference to a phone call with Lukashenko, whom Trump described as “the highly respected Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus.” Campbell and Stewart highlight Trump’s affinity for strongman rulers. (26:17–27:36)

8. Scenarios Going Forward

• Europe and Ukraine’s Difficult Position

  • “All they can hope to do is just every week hope that they can convince Trump never quite to sign up to a deal with Putin, never quite to lift sanctions.” – Rory Stewart (39:29)
  • Ukraine’s position has objectively worsened—in military and diplomatic terms.

• Putin’s Weaknesses and the Unexpected Victory

  • Despite economic struggles and mounting international setbacks, Putin managed to snatch “victory from the jaws of defeat” through optics and Trump’s facilitation.
  • “A smarter American president would say this is a moment where Russia is on the back foot… Instead, Trump hands him a victory.” – Rory Stewart (30:24)

9. Lessons from Past Encounters with Putin

• Campbell’s Diary Insights

  • Alastair reads from his diaries, recalling that Putin’s hardline approach hasn’t wavered since the early 2000s—first about Chechnya, now about Ukraine.
  • “Trump never changes. I’m not sure I totally buy that. But with Putin, absolutely, I buy that.” – Alastair Campbell (34:04)

• Putin’s Manipulative Tactics

  • Putin flatly denied any Russian human rights violations, always pivoted to flattery, and would spring surprises on the world stage (e.g., ambushing Blair on WMDs after the Iraq war). (35:47–37:16)

10. Europe's Dilemma and Next Steps

• What Can Europe Do?

  • “I would hate to be Starmer or Macron in this position… They have to say the same thing week after week: ‘Please, don’t sign up to a land deal. Please include Zelenskyy in the talks.’” – Rory Stewart (39:29)

• Media and Political Leverage

  • Europeans should use the negative media coverage of the summit as leverage, as Trump “believes in ratings” and “was the outright loser” in the eyes of the world’s media. (43:55)
  • “That’s a moment of leverage… you almost came a complete cropper there, and we’ve now got to get serious.” – Alastair Campbell (43:33)

11. The Dismantling of Postwar Institutions

• Trump’s Approach: Short-Term Deals Over Long-Term Stability
  • “He’s dismantling all those international laws, all the norms, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, the trade agreements, NATO, the UN… At best, he could get some short-term sugar rushes of gangster-style deals, but totally at the expense of stability for the world in the future.” – Rory Stewart (47:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Putin Opens the Summit:
  “Putin opened proceedings at the press conference… Which is unheard of, isn’t it?”
  – Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart (05:04–05:07)

• On Trump’s Worldview:
  “I think Trump’s entire worldview is sort of based on… games of strategy that are kind of children’s games of strategy, which, A, big countries do better, and B, the minerals that you have in the ground are what really matters.”
  – Rory Stewart (21:56–22:37)

• Putin’s Flattery:
  “What did he say? I can confirm that if Trump had been president, there wouldn’t have been a war, which of course is one of Trump’s utter obsessions.” – Alastair Campbell (16:49)

• Campbell’s Diary: Putin Never Changes:
  “With Putin, absolutely, I buy that. So, for example, our first meetings, a lot of the discussions: Ukraine barely figures. It’s all about Chechnya. And Putin absolutely hard over… any human rights violation should be addressed. Putin said point blank, there aren't any.” – Alastair Campbell (35:47–36:20)

• Lukashenko Call:
  “Then, on the way in the plane, who does he phone up and have a nice friendly chat with… the highly respected Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus.” – Alastair Campbell (26:17)

• Europe’s Desperation:
  “They just have to hope against hope that they can keep delaying and holding off the inevitable… I'd hate to be Starmer or Macron in this position.” – Rory Stewart (39:29)

• On Trump’s “Peace”:
  “Is he trying to make the world more peaceful? He’s definitely trying to win a Nobel Peace Prize because he’s obsessed with baubles. But I don't think he has made the world more peaceful on this.” – Alastair Campbell (45:49)

Timeline of Key Segments

• 01:47 – 09:24: The summit’s setting, atmosphere, and immediate press conference analysis
• 09:24 – 14:21: Optics, Putin’s control, and the non-negotiation of a ceasefire
• 14:21 – 20:18: Western expectations collapse, Trump’s instincts, theorizing about motives
• 20:18 – 27:36: Potential peace “deals,” Trump’s worldview, strongman politics
• 27:36 – 31:06: International consequences, lifting of sanctions, what Putin got
• 33:47 – 39:29: Have leaders ever negotiated effectively with Putin? Campbell’s diaries and past summits
• 39:29 – 43:55: Europe’s and Ukraine’s narrowing options, ways forward, leveraging Trump’s aversion to negative press
• 43:55 – End: Dismantling global norms, what the summit means for long-term peace, conclusion on Trump and Putin’s respective positioning

Final Takeaways

• Putin came out the political winner—he restored his image on the world stage at the expense of the US.
• Trump looked weakened, tired, and played; no concrete deal but lots of red flags for Ukraine and Europe.
• Ukraine’s best outcomes are slipping away, Europe feels helpless, and the international order is fraying.
• Both hosts urge European leaders to press their advantage from Trump’s negative press while they have it.
• Campbell and Stewart agree: Trump, obsessed with strongmen and transactional “deals,” is being played by Putin—and the world order is increasingly at risk.

This summary provides a rich, detailed account of the episode and should equip anyone—whether they’ve heard the recording or not—to understand the issues, arguments, moods, and stakes of the Alaska Trump-Putin summit and its fallout.