The Rest Is Politics — Episode 439: “The Pro-Putin President: Are Zelensky and Europe sleepwalking into disaster?”
Date: August 19, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Overview:
This episode dives into the alarming repercussions of the recent Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, focusing on the implications for Ukraine, Zelensky, and the direction of European leadership. The hosts dissect Trump’s alignment with Putin, the scramble of European leaders to influence US policy, and the fragile state of Western unity on Ukraine. In the second half, Campbell and Stewart pivot to an in-depth analysis of developments in Israel and Gaza, including domestic Israeli politics and shifting public opinion.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Trump’s Alaska Meeting with Putin: European Shockwaves
[02:45–05:26]
- European leaders’ scramble: After the Trump-Putin Alaska meeting yielded nothing concrete, Zelensky and a host of EU leaders (Macron, Starmer, Meloni, Stubb, Rutte, von der Leyen) rushed to Washington.
- “I’ve never seen anything like it. How quickly these guys clear their schedules and get on a plane…” — Rory Stewart [03:15]
- Shift in rhetoric: Trump initially demanded a ceasefire from Putin, but after the meeting, backed off, pivoting to "peace agreements" and vague "security guarantees.”
- Trust deficit: Both Campbell and Stewart spotlight that neither Putin nor Trump is trustworthy—and Trump’s shifting positions only deepen the anxiety.
- “It’s all about trust now, isn’t it? …the only person… minded to trust Putin is Trump.” — Alastair Campbell [04:10]
The Trump-Vance Dynamic and European Tactics
[05:26–12:31]
- Trump’s unpredictability: Trump had promised EU leaders not to make unilateral moves but broke this as soon as he met Putin.
- “He is very impressionable… doesn’t actually enjoy confrontation… the best chance to… shift his position… is to get in the room with him.” — Campbell [05:50]
- Psychology of Trump: The hosts debate whether Trump’s decisions are rooted in business instincts, indifference to Ukraine, or a pure desire for deals and applause.
- “What if Trump just doesn’t care about Ukraine, doesn’t care about NATO, doesn’t care about Europe?” — Stewart [06:37, echoed at 11:01]
- Marginalization of ‘New Right’ US politicians: JD Vance and Marco Rubio were sidelined—Vance “was told by Trump to stay in his box.” [10:14]
- “J.D. Vance looked very miserable yesterday. He was made to sit at the children’s table.” — Campbell [09:48]
Trump’s Endgame: Is He “Pro-Putin”?
[11:01–13:08]
- Strategic indifference: Stewart posits that Trump’s core instincts are fame, money, and great power spheres of influence—Ukraine being “really part of Russia anyway.”
- “His gut instinct is screw Ukraine; it’s really part of Russia anyway. It doesn’t really matter.” — Stewart [12:03]
- Desire for Nobel recognition: Trump’s obsession with looking like a peacemaker, even if by conceding to the aggressor.
- “He’d like the Nobel Peace Prize. And the easiest way… is to take the aggressor’s peace.” — Stewart [12:33]
- Trump’s enjoyment of European attention: “He quite enjoys probably having all these European leaders jumping on planes to see him all the time.” — Stewart [12:31]
- “He loved it. He loved it.” — Campbell [12:33]
The Pool Spray: Zelensky, Optics, and Kremlin Messaging
[13:08–15:05]
- Zelensky’s wariness: During a media “pool spray,” Zelensky tried to keep it brief, but Trump took questions at length, often on irrelevant topics.
- “Let’s make it short.” — Zelensky (whispered)
“Short, very short.” — Trump [13:31]
- “Let’s make it short.” — Zelensky (whispered)
- Russian trolls seize the narrative: Medvedev tweets mocking the European “groveling” and calling Zelensky “the Kyiv Clown.”
- “He’s trolling Zelenskyy, he’s trolling the Europeans… if he [Medvedev] does that with Putin’s blessing… he’s basically taking the piss.” — Campbell [14:19]
Putin’s Confidence and Russian Mobilization
[15:05–18:04]
- Russian recruiting advantage: Russia is recruiting twice as many soldiers daily as Ukraine, driven by huge pay and bonuses.
- “Soldiers on the front line earn much more than their British equivalents. … $2,450/month salary… $30,000 signing bonus…” — Stewart [16:27]
- Battlefield reality: Russian breakthroughs are threatening Ukrainian logistics; Putin perceives the war as moving in his favor.
- American disengagement: Vance publically signals US funding of Ukraine is over.
- “America—we’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business…” — Vance (paraphrased) [17:49–18:04]
Security Guarantees: Substance or “Froth”?
[18:04–20:19]
- Ambiguity of “guarantees”: No clarity exists on what security guarantees actually mean—certainly not NATO Article 5.
- “If it remains ambiguous, it’s not really a deterrent, is it?” — Stewart [18:32]
- Donbas “deal” impossible: Campbell draws an analogy—asking Ukraine to cede Donbas is for Zelensky “suicidal,” akin to telling Trump “give up Florida and a bit of Texas.” [19:22]
- “For Zelenskyy to hand over the Donbas would be suicidal. So that can’t happen.” — Campbell, quoting Shashank Joshi [19:38]
Insights on a Frozen Conflict: A “Cyprus Scenario” for Ukraine?
[20:19–22:04]
- Stewart predicts a likely outcome is neither a pro-Russia nor a pro-Ukraine deal, but a protracted “frozen conflict” akin to Cyprus, the world gradually losing interest.
European Strategy and the Failure to Rearm
[26:41–28:20]
- Europe’s gamble: Stewart critiques EU leaders “putting all their focus onto trying to change Trump’s mind,” arguing they should have spent the last months rearming.
- “What’s worrying me is… unless Europe actually… sorts out the lessons of Ukraine and how to defend itself against Russian attack, Putin will be opportunistic.” — Stewart [27:45]
The Flattery of Trump and the Realpolitik of EU Leaders
[28:20–31:56]
- Backstage skepticism: European leaders (notably Maloney, Starmer, Macron) are “rolling their eyes” and “whispering,” recognizing the need for flattery.
- “It makes most of them feel sick… they have to do this flattery stuff… but I think there was enough yesterday of: ultimately, this is about Putin. Putin has to be the one who makes changes.” — Campbell [30:53]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “I think we’re misreading it… Trump is only outmaneuvered if you assume that what Trump is trying to do is support Ukraine… what if Trump just doesn’t care?” — Stewart [08:33]
- “If that’s the case, why doesn’t he go much closer to the JD Vance position? …You sit there and you don’t speak. And in the meeting in the Oval Office… Vance did not open his mouth.” — Campbell [09:48]
- On Putin’s mindset: “If I were Putin, I’d be pretty confident at the moment that things are going in my direction, that these European meetings are just froth.” — Stewart [15:05]
- On security guarantees: “If it remains ambiguous, it’s not really a deterrent, is it?” — Stewart [18:32]
- On the Cyprus analogy: “There’s a serious chance that’s the kind of world you end up in, in Ukraine.” — Stewart [21:35]
- Kasparov (via Campbell): “How do we want to be seen in the history books of the future—as spectators of authoritarianism or as defenders of freedom and democracy?” [25:44]
Second Half: Developments in Israel & Gaza
[34:40–48:07]
Gaza War Escalation, Settlements, and Israeli Politics
[34:40–36:23]
- Israeli war cabinet’s next move: Announces ground operation to “clear out” northern Gaza.
- Mass protests: 400,000 demonstrate against Netanyahu, driven by growing Israeli reporting of Gaza’s hunger and civilian suffering.
Polarization & Coalition Politics
[37:29–39:16]
- Hardliners—Ben Gvir & Smotrich: Their provocations and initiatives (new settlements, aggressive language) keep pulling Netanyahu to the right.
- “Ben Gvir goes into a prison, berates Marwan Barghouti…” — Campbell [42:33]
- Netanyahu’s dependency: His ruling coalition is balanced on having these far-right figures (finance/security portfolios)—without them, his government falls.
Military vs. Political Leadership in Israel
[39:16–42:33]
- Disagreement over Gaza operations: The Israeli Chief of Staff overtly opposes plans for a renewed push into Gaza.
- “He thinks that this is tactically mad… will risk the lives of Israeli hostages…” — Stewart [40:02]
- Military’s shifting influence: Rising tension between Netanyahu and senior military/intelligence leaders, who are increasingly at odds with government strategy.
Settlements, International Backlash, and Diplomatic Rifts
[42:33–44:24]
- E1 settlement plan: Smotrich pushes 3,000 new housing units to “bury the idea of a Palestinian state”—an irreversible move, long opposed by the US.
- Diplomatic tit-for-tat: Australia expels Israeli diplomats after being denied a visa for a far-right Israeli MP; Israel previously denied a UK MP entry, but the UK did not retaliate.
US Influence and Information Warfare
[44:24–48:07]
- Influencers shape US policy: Right-wing influencers like Laura Loomer sway White House positions, e.g., suspension of US visas for sick children from Gaza.
- Desensitization to casualty ratios: Israeli military leaders publicly assert the need for high Palestinian casualties as deterrence.
- “Fifty Palestinians must die for every person killed that day. And it doesn’t matter now if they are children.” — Reported statement by Gen. Aharon Haleva [45:54]
- “People genuinely believe… that deterrence is by killing many, many multiples of anyone that are killed. But… it doesn’t look like at the moment it’s stopping.” — Stewart [46:50]
- Military-public split: Many Israelis may soon listen more to generals than to Netanyahu because of rising distrust.
Media Focus and Western Attention
[48:07–49:56]
- Trump as the oxygen of the Western media: When Trump fixates on an issue (Ukraine, Putin), other global crises (like Gaza) fall out of focus.
- “It is really… terrifying, the way that whatever Trump focuses on and engages in, is sort of multiplied in terms of the public oxygen that it gets…” — Campbell [48:07]
- Upcoming Episode Topics: Lib Dems, US redistricting & gerrymandering, and education in UK prisons.
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [02:45] — Start of Ukraine segment, post-Trump-Putin summit
- [05:26] — Trump breaks verbal deal with EU leaders
- [08:33] — Is Trump “pro-Putin” or just indifferent?
- [13:08] — White House optics, pool spray with Zelensky
- [15:05] — Putin’s growing confidence
- [17:49] — JD Vance, American military funding ends
- [19:22] — Donbas as an impossible concession
- [21:35] — “Cyprus scenario” for Ukraine
- [25:44] — Kasparov on learning from history
- [26:41] — Europe’s missed opportunity for military self-reliance
- [34:40] — Start of Israel/Gaza discussion
- [36:23] — Israeli media & public opinion shifts
- [39:16] — Netanyahu’s reliance on far-right coalition partners
- [42:33] — Ben Gvir’s prison visit; settlements to “bury Palestine”
- [44:24] — US right-wing influencers affect Gaza policy
- [45:54] — Gen. Haleva’s deterrence logic: 50:1
- [48:07] — Western media's focus warps under Trump
Conclusion:
This episode offers a sharp, timely dissection of a Western political order wobbling both in unity and in focus. Campbell and Stewart lay bare the limitations of both Trump’s transactional, attention-driven approach and Europe’s reactive strategy, as well as the shifting, ever more precarious lines of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Throughout, their signature blend of insider knowledge, sharp wit, and pointed disagreement brings clarity to some of today’s most dangerous political dynamics.
Key Quotes Recap
- “It’s all about trust now, isn’t it? …the only person… minded to trust Putin is Trump.” — Campbell [04:10]
- “His gut instinct is screw Ukraine; it’s really part of Russia anyway. It doesn’t really matter.” — Stewart [12:03]
- “He quite enjoys probably having all these European leaders jumping on planes to see him all the time.” — Stewart [12:31]
- “For Zelenskyy to hand over the Donbas would be suicidal.” — Campbell, quoting Joshi [19:38]
- “How do we want to be seen in the history books of the future—as spectators of authoritarianism or as defenders of freedom and democracy?” — Kasparov via Campbell [25:44]
- “Ben GVIR goes into a prison, berates Marwan Barghouti…” — Campbell [42:33]
- “Fifty Palestinians must die for every person [Israeli] killed that day. And it doesn’t matter now if they are children.” — Gen. Haleva (via Campbell) [45:54]