Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics – Episode 443

Title: China’s Plot to Topple Trump: How to Bring Down a Superpower
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Release Date: September 2, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dive deep into the shifting landscape of global power, focusing primarily on China's influence, the strategic moves of Russia and India, and the unraveling of US-led strategies under the recurring leadership of Donald Trump. The hosts analyze major diplomatic summits in Asia—from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting to the growing weight of ASEAN—and reflect on their implications for Western alliances, democracy, and the future global order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shanghai Cooperation Summit – A New "Superpower Bloc"

• Background: Recent SCO meeting in Shenzhen brought together Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi, highlighting a growing alignment of China, Russia, and India in strategic opposition to the West.
• US Policy Fallout:
  • For decades, US policy aimed to keep China isolated, drawing India and Russia closer to the West (“Reverse Kissinger”).
  • Collapse of Strategy: Trump’s recent policies—like punishing tariffs and contentious diplomacy—have inadvertently driven Moscow, Delhi, and Beijing together.
  • Quote (Campbell, 03:38):

    “Trump has seemingly bought them all together in a way that... makes them look like a... they’re definitely vying to be a rival collection to the Western alliance.”

• Modi’s Shift:
  • Relationship between Modi and Trump has soured, especially over a Nobel Peace Prize nomination and Trump’s public credit-taking in India-Pakistan peace assessments.
  • The imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports is seen as punitive and unpredictable.

2. China’s Strategic Positioning

• Diplomatic Maneuvering:
  • Xi leveraging the summit to present China as a champion of stability and international order, flipping the traditional Western narrative.
  • Quote (Xi via Campbell, 09:43):

    “…member states… should ‘oppose Cold War mentality, block based confrontation and bullying… safeguard the international system with the United Nations at its core.’”

  • China is positioning itself as the upholder of the global rules-based system—calling the US destabilizing and unpredictable.
• Partnership with Russia:
  • Russia provides cover for China by vocalizing aggressively anti-Western positions that Beijing, officially, cannot.
  • Moscow and Beijing agreed on a new energy pipeline, cementing their economic interdependence.
  • Quote (Stewart, 10:22):

    "Russia can say things China can’t... they have this mate who can go out there saying unbelievably aggressive and hostile things against the West… Russia is very, very useful to China."

3. The View from Asia – Business and Perceptions

• Campbell’s Singapore Polling Experience ([17:00-18:55]):
  • Among 500 regional business leaders, 60% see China as the world’s most powerful country.
  • 81% believe China, not the US, will benefit from Trump’s tariff policy.
  • When asked about threats to global stability:
    • 79% identified the US as a greater threat, only 21% chose China.
  • Quote (Campbell, 18:48):

    “USA 79. China 21. Now, I just do not believe that would have been the case a year ago.”

4. The Fraying of Western Alliances

• European Pushback:
  • European states are starting to resist Trump administration actions and rhetoric.
  • Noted personal and diplomatic confrontations, especially from France and Denmark.
  • Quote (Campbell, 20:23):

    “…that is a case of where the institutions of a country like Brazil appear to be holding in a way that in America, the institutions don’t appear to be holding.”

• Alliances in Question:
  • Concerns for security pacts like QUAD (US, India, Australia, Japan) and US-Japan relations under duress from Trump’s unpredictability.

5. New Geopolitical “Mini-Lateral” Clubs

• Growth of “Blocs”:
  • Organizations like SCO, BRICS, and ASEAN are expanding, becoming venues for alternative global leadership outside traditional Western frameworks.
  • Quote (Stewart quoting Sasha Kobuyev, 15:14):

    “They’re blocks, but not economic blocs, they’re clubs, they’re not alliances, they’re minilaterals… they are increasingly useful as the US alliances begin to fray.”

• Singapore’s Pivot:
  • Singapore exploring smaller economic groupings for “fairer trading” alongside UAE and Morocco.

Southeast Asia: Democracy, Growth, and Authoritarianism

1. The ASEAN Perspective

• Regional Optimism & Growth:
  • ASEAN now comprises over 500 million people—larger than the EU by population.
  • Many Southeast Asian economies (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia) are growing quickly and attracting global investment, sometimes as alternatives to China.
• Shifting Democratic Landscape:
  • Indonesia:
    • Once a beacon of democratization post-Suharto, now experiencing protests, authoritarian regression, and scandals.
    • Quote (Stewart, 37:46):

      "So Indonesian democracy now in big, big trouble."

  • Thailand:
    • Political life dominated by recurring military coups and the Shinawatra family, with courts often instrumentally removing populist leaders.

2. Controlled and “Dynastic” Democracies

• Personal Rule and Institutional Decay:
  • Cases abound of family dynasties and entrenched political families in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
  • Courts and military often act as power brokers, sometimes undermining democratic movements.

3. China’s Soft Power & Disinformation

• Social Media and Narrative Control:
  • Evidence of Chinese-run social media operations influencing opinion across Southeast Asia, especially regarding South China Sea disputes.
  • Local leaders and publics are both wary and pragmatic about relations with China, seeing the US as more unpredictable than Beijing.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Campbell (on the US’s loss of moral credibility, 22:52):

  “We’ve really effed things up when we’re now in a position where the Chinese Communist Party can hold the moral high ground over our alliances.”

• Stewart (on the new global order, 49:10):

  "This is about a world tilting away from the West, tilting away from European-American models of liberal democracy, towards these authoritarian semi-democracy states... probably the things to watch if we're thinking about the future shape of the world."

• Campbell (on Trump’s authoritarian envy, 49:34):

  “It’s also probably why Donald Trump, whose instincts are authoritarian anyway, is thinking, you know, maybe they’ve got it right. He gives himself a kind of historical, intellectual justification for some of the authoritarian stuff that he’s doing.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:37 – Podcast proper begins
• 03:05 – US-India relations and Trump’s diplomatic fallout
• 05:25 – “Reverse Kissinger” and failed US strategy to isolate China
• 09:37 – China’s diplomatic messaging & new energy deals
• 10:22 – Russia’s utility to China, handling Western hostility
• 17:00-18:55 – Campbell’s Singapore poll on superpower perceptions
• 22:52 – Campbell on Western loss of moral high ground
• 29:08-32:16 – Overview of Southeast Asian economic growth and optimism
• 35:04 – The troubled state of Indonesian democracy
• 40:45 – Political dynasties and democratization setbacks in Thailand, Philippines
• 45:57-47:13 – China’s use of social media to influence Southeast Asian politics
• 48:04 – “Controlled democracy” in stable, wealthy Singapore
• 49:10 – Summary: the world’s pivot away from Western-led order

Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering, detailed look at how recent US strategies under Trump have not only undermined traditional alliances, but also enabled the rise of competing geopolitical clubs led by China and Russia—with India increasingly charting an independent course. The hosts paint a picture of a world where Western models of liberal democracy are giving way to new forms of “controlled democracy,” authoritarianism, and economic pragmatism, especially across Asia. The political center of gravity is shifting, making new alliances, power blocs, and regional actors more important than ever in shaping the future global order.

For next episode:
The hosts plan to discuss the reshuffled UK government, the Online Safety Act, AI regulation, and Nigel Farage’s attacks on the UK from America.