The Rest Is Politics – Episode 446: "Israel Bombs Qatar: Where Does Impunity End?"

Date: September 9, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell (A) and Rory Stewart (B)
Theme: Emergency analysis of the unprecedented Israeli missile strike on Doha, Qatar, examining its implications for international law, diplomacy, US-Israeli relations, and the global order.

Episode Overview

This emergency episode covers breaking news of an Israeli missile strike on Doha, Qatar, and explores its destabilizing effect on the postwar international order, ceasefire negotiations, and multilateral relations in the Middle East. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, with first-hand contacts in the region, discuss the legality, justification, and possible consequences of the strike—including how it may signal the erosion of international norms and the onset of a world of unchecked impunity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strike: What Happened and Immediate Reactions

• The Event: Israel launched a missile strike in central Doha, reportedly targeting senior Hamas negotiators who had been residing in Qatar and involved in ceasefire discussions. (00:22)
  • "A friend of mine was driving past the building when the explosion happened. Pretty terrifying experience." – Rory Stewart (00:34)
• Netanyahu's Statement: Openly confirmed Israel acted alone and takes "full responsibility." (01:06)
  • "Benjamin Netanyahu has come out and said today's action was a wholly independent Israeli operation." – Rory Stewart (01:06)
• Unprecedented Move: First instance of Israel striking a stable Western-aligned ally not previously engaged in active hostilities (compared to past strikes on Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, etc.).
• Chaos and Disbelief: Multiple sources and rumors about casualties and the target; Qatari authorities suggest Hamas delegation may not have been hit, but Qatari security personnel were killed. (08:22)

2. Impact on Ceasefire Negotiations and Diplomacy

• Ceasefire "Stone Dead": The strike disrupts delicate truce discussions involving Israelis, Hamas, Qataris, Egyptians, and Americans.
  • "This has killed any talk of a ceasefire in any talk of a deal for some time. I would say stone dead." – Alastair Campbell (02:38)
• Qatar's Role: Previously lauded for mediating and facilitating negotiations, hosting both Israelis and Hamas delegates.
  • "Qatar has been playing an extraordinary positive role in trying to get the ceasefire and get the hostages out." – Alastair Campbell (02:52)
• US Involvement: Trump administration was notified in advance, but the difference between “notified” and “approved” is significant.
  • "Confirmed that the Trump administration was notified about the Israeli strike on Doha before it took place. Now, what that says to me... Notified says to me they were told, they were informed and there’s nothing you can do." – Alastair Campbell (11:21)

3. International Legality and "Impunity"

• Breakdown of Norms: The strike is characterized as a flagrant violation of international law, akin to other recent attacks by authoritative leaders.
  • "We've entered a world in which the old post war order, which was based on this article 2 brackets 4 of the UN Charter, which said that you cannot strike another country unless you're doing it in self-defense ... has been just blown through." – Rory Stewart (04:41)
  • "This is a completely illegal act. This is extrajudicial killing." – Rory Stewart (19:15)
• Impunity and Precedent: Concerns raised about other nations (Turkey, India, Congo) citing similar arguments for extraterritorial actions.
• Comparison to Putin's actions against dissidents abroad and other "strongman" doctrines: Both see parallels and the dangerous normalization of illegal cross-border attacks. (06:36)

4. Political and Security Implications

• Qatar-United States Relationship at Risk: Qatar has invested tens of billions in US defense equipment and hosts the crucial Al Udeid air base with over 10,000 US troops. Confidence in the US as an ally is shaken.
  • "Qatar has bought from the US ... billions upon billions to protect them from ballistic missile attack. And now a ballistic missile has just been fired at them, which Trump may be saying was done with his authorization. At which point might they not go off and buy in future from China?" – Rory Stewart (10:52)
• Shifting Alliances and Fallout: Gulf nations (UAE, Saudi, Oman, Turkey, Iran) rapidly condemn Israel; the attack alters previous patterns of reticence.
  • "The worry now in the Gulf about state sovereignty is beginning to create alliances which are emerging." – Rory Stewart (14:21)
• Impact on International Forums: The US's denial of visas to the Palestinian delegation for the UNGA is noted as further undermining the rules-based order. (24:11)

5. Comparisons and Analogy

• Historical Parallels: The hosts liken the incident to the UK killing Sinn Fein leaders in Dublin during the Good Friday negotiations.
  • "Just as you think you're getting somewhere...like, you know, the British government decides to go and wipe out Adams and McGuinness." – Alastair Campbell (22:01)
• The "Arab Street" Becomes Virtual: Predicts global outrage, amplified by social media, especially among Muslims and youth.
  • "It's a virtual street ... a billion Muslims around the world watching repeated footage..." – Rory Stewart (31:18)
• Precedent for Global Disorder: Hosts suggest this normalization of impunity diminishes shock value for other acts of aggression, such as a possible Chinese takeover of Taiwan.

Listeners’ Reactions and Notable Quotes

• Many live comments reflect outrage, fear, and disbelief. Examples:
  • "I am Jewish and I'm utterly ashamed of the Israeli government ... They're accountable for a genocide. This impunity is facilitated...by the willing corporation approval of the US and the UK." (Jeremy Blaine, 15:48)
  • "I cannot believe Trump signed off on this. Where and when does this stop?" (Hamish Mackay, 16:47)
  • "No civilian here in Qatar knew about this attack...people were completely astonished and appalled." (Joe Avison, 16:59)
• Notable host exchange:
  • "It is a sign of [Trump’s] both of his power and his impotence in a way. Most of the world is basically...waiting to see what Trump says. But actually the impotence is also there in that Netanyahu seems to think he can do what he wants.” – Alastair Campbell (12:25)
  • "What then happens if Erdogan wishes to target somebody who he says is a Kurdish terrorist outside Turkey with a missile attack?...Where does this lead?” – Rory Stewart (19:15)
  • "If I was Qatar, I'd be pretty angry and resentful about how slow all these countries...are to make statements.” – Rory Stewart (27:18)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:22 – Breaking news of the Israeli strike on Doha and Netanyahu’s statement
• 02:18 – Discussion on ceasefire negotiations and global condemnation
• 04:15 – Legal and precedential context—breach of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter
• 08:22 – Details on casualties, targets, and regional reaction
• 10:52 – US-Qatar relations, arms sales, and the exposed vulnerability
• 11:21 – US administration reaction: “Notified” vs. “Approved”
• 14:21 – Changing Gulf alliances post-strike
• 15:48–17:21 – Selected audience comments reflecting shock and outrage
• 19:15 – Discussion of erosion of international legal norms and extrajudicial killings
• 22:01 – Analogy with UK peace process and hypothetical political assassinations
• 27:18 – Calls for Western allies to support Qatar and the risk of abandonment
• 31:18 – Virtual "Arab street" and prospects for greater radicalization
• 34:38 – Final reflections: implication for Taiwan, global order, and US leadership

Memorable Moments

• Analogy to Northern Ireland Peace Process: Hammering home the absurdity and consequences of extrajudicial targeting during active negotiations by likening it to assassinating UK peace partners. (22:01)
• "If I was Xi Jinping...": Chilling speculation on the normalization of global lawlessness shaping Chinese calculations on Taiwan. (34:09)
• “It’s like you’ve entered a Godzilla movie”: Captures the chaos and horror experienced by Qatari civilians. (27:18)

Tone and Language

• The tone is urgent, informed, at times indignant, but strives for clarity and sober analysis, consistent with the show's ethos of debating disagreements intelligently.
• Language is direct, candid, and, especially in listener comments, emotionally charged.

Concluding Thought

The episode closes with sympathy for affected civilians and a sober warning about what happens when nations fail to defend international norms:

• "What happens if you don't stand up when the system begins to break and how much worse things can get unless we start forming alliances to, to uphold those rules.” – Rory Stewart (36:51)

This episode is a must-listen for anyone concerned with the survival of international law, the shifting tectonics of Middle Eastern politics, and the global consequences of unchecked state power.