The Rest Is Politics – Ep. 447: "Is Starmer Sleepwalking Britain into Farage’s Hands?"

Podcast: The Rest Is Politics
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: September 10, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dive into the turmoil gripping British politics, focusing on concerns that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is failing to articulate change—potentially ceding ground to Nigel Farage's populist Reform Party. They examine the recent Labour reshuffle, party dynamics, Farage’s electoral surge, and the dire state of the UK’s political centre. Beyond the UK, the discussion ranges over the rise of populism across Europe, white working-class underachievement in education, and recent political upheaval in France.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Labour’s Troubles and the Rise of Reform

• Labour’s Faltering Polls:

  • Labour’s ratings have dropped sharply; June 2025 Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, Labour on 20%, and Conservatives at 15%. Labour’s big majority from the previous year now seems dangerously insecure. (04:16–05:17)
  • Key Quote: “There's no real sign of where the change that's going to turn things around is coming from.” – Alastair Campbell (00:00–00:08)

• Farage’s Populist Ascent:

  • Reform is viewed as a classic right-wing populist movement: “This is somebody who wants to trash institutions, break international law, expel 600,000 people in contravention of all our international treaties.” – Rory Stewart (00:34)
  • The fact that Reform is being discussed as a serious contender shows the extraordinary churn in British politics. (05:17–05:41)
  • Campbell calls the shift “a terrible inexorable march toward...another right-wing, populist governed country.” (00:46)

2. Labour Reshuffle: Instability or Strategy?

• Starmer's Cabinet Moves:

  • The Angela Rayner resignation catalysed a major reshuffle, but most changes appear tactical rather than visionary. (05:41–07:32)
  • Heavy reliance on internal party calculations: Bridget Phillipson floated for deputy leader; the party machine acting to narrow competition. (05:17–05:41)
  • New Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is positioned as tough on immigration—seen as central to blunting Reform, but at the cost of party coherence. (10:45–12:21)

• Ministerial Musical Chairs:

  • Only one cabinet minister fired; most were rotated to new departments. Stewart: “All that's happening...is only two Cabinet ministers were fired and they were not in key positions...The problem is that civil servants are faced with a problem...how long are you going to be around?” (09:23–10:45)

• Concerns over Loyalism and Factionalism:

  • “A real sense that there's a massive reward for ultra loyalists and particularly young ultra loyalists...the soft left...seem to have been frozen out.” – Rory Stewart (14:56–16:38)
  • The government is “tightening up the Whips operation” to battle for welfare cuts. (16:38)
  • “Probably not” an overstatement, says Campbell, but warns this risks party unity. (16:38)

3. Brexit Legacy and Left/Right Realignments

• Parallels to Conservative Party Collapse:

  • “It's beginning to remind me a little bit of what I felt in the Conservative Party as the Conservative Party began to collapse.” – Rory Stewart (00:21, 17:38)
  • Starmer’s marginalization of the soft left mirrors previous Tory strategies under Cameron, risking backlash.

• Split Loyalties:

  • The fear is of a new “soft left” Labour opposition emerging, potentially led by Angela Rayner. “Is it some of the same tension or am I overdoing that?” – Stewart (19:45)
  • The working class feel left behind, and this resentment is driving support for Reform. (20:01–21:56)

4. The White Working-Class Education Crisis

• Stark Disparities:

  • White working-class kids are dramatically underperforming: “They are 23 months behind the average...Chinese ethnicities are 27 months ahead...Only 33% go on to university.” – Rory Stewart (23:34–24:18)
  • Ofsted and the education system are failing this cohort: “They are the statistical footnote of a system that has become more interested in self-congratulation than self-correction...Their underachievement pathologized rather than understood.” – (29:37)

• Policy Solutions:

  • Funding, targeted reforms, and recruitment/retention of teachers are pitched as vital (26:09–27:15).
  • Bridget Phillipson faces a choice: focus on systemic changes (Ofsted, curriculum) or on teacher support and multi-agency interventions. (27:25–29:37)
  • “For a Labour government this should be a moral imperative.” – Campbell (26:09)

5. Farage’s Reform Party – Can It Be Blunted?

• Attack Lines on Farage:

  • Conventional criticisms haven’t worked. Danny Finkelstein suggests exposing his inability to control his party and the infiltration of MAGA-style extremists may be more effective. (30:45–32:15)
  • Campbell: “He should never be allowed to forget that he was a big part of Brexit. Brexit has been bad for the country...bad for people in these working-class areas.” (32:15–34:02)
  • Focus on issues that matter—especially the NHS and pensions—rather than just institutional threats: “Say he’s a threat because he’s going after the NHS.” (35:26–35:42)

• Media Critique:

  • Campbell lambasts the media’s leniency towards Farage, noting sustained attacks on Angela Rayner versus minimal scrutiny of Farage. (32:15–34:02)
  • “You have to find ways of making [Trump] damage him politically without damaging the government.” (35:42)

6. Europe in Turmoil: France and Beyond

• French Political Crisis:

  • Macron’s government is in chaos, with repeated PM replacements and deep economic woes (debt at 114% of GDP, large deficits). (41:29–43:56)
  • Macron’s tax cuts for the rich backfired; the Gilet Jaune movement and current left/right opposition fuel instability. France’s economic credibility is now being questioned akin to Italy. (43:56–46:08)
  • Key Quote: “If you look at French bond spreads against Germany...it's now looking much more like Italy.” – Rory Stewart (43:56)

• Online Radicalization:

  • Both the right (pro-Le Pen/AfD) and left (“block en tout”) are weaponizing social media, sometimes accelerated by Russian interference. (47:07)

• Broader Populist Shift:

  • Across Europe, traditional parties are in decline: “Where working-class votes go” is increasingly to populist right parties (AFD, Le Pen, Reform). (21:56)
  • Norway’s left is uniquely resilient, though the traditional right has fractured, replaced by a “Progress” party (48:37–49:31).

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• “We’re on some terrible inexorable march towards the UK becoming another right-wing, populist governed country, which I think would be a disaster.”
  – Alastair Campbell (00:46)

• “This is somebody who wants to trash institutions, close the BBC, break international law, expel 600,000 people in contravention of all our international treaties.”
  – Rory Stewart (34:02)

• “They are the statistical footnote of a system that has become more interested in self-congratulation than self-correction. Their low performance is rationalized as inevitable.”
  – Alastair Campbell, quoting the Department for Education report (29:37)

• “He should never be allowed to forget that he was a big part of Brexit. And Brexit has been bad for the country.”
  – Alastair Campbell (32:15)

• “There's a massive reward for ultra loyalists...the entire Whip's office...considered loyal to Starmer...the soft left...frozen out.”
  – Rory Stewart (14:56)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Labour & Reform Polling Crisis: 04:16–05:41
• Labour Reshuffle Dissection: 05:41–14:56
• Farage & Right-Wing Populism: 14:56–19:45, 30:45–36:00
• Labour Internal Divisions: 16:38–19:45
• Working-Class Education Crisis: 21:56–30:45
• France’s Political Crisis: 41:29–48:37
• European Populism Trends: 21:56, 48:37–49:31

Conclusion and Next Steps

As Labour faces internal divisions and stalling public support, Reform’s populist message, powered by shifting working-class allegiances and disaffection, continues to bite. Campbell and Stewart argue that Starmer needs not only policy clarity and credible reforms—especially in education and social policy—but a proactive counter-narrative against Farage’s populist threat. Elsewhere in Europe, the episode draws sobering parallels and differences with the rise of hard right movements, noting that the fate of the centre-left may depend on reclaiming relevance with neglected constituencies.

For those interested: The hosts promise further analysis on global populism, Trump’s resurgence, and UK party maneuverings in their upcoming "Question Time" special.

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