The Rest Is Politics Episode 449: Starmer Loses Control—Will Andy Burnham Challenge the PM?

Date: September 16, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Main Theme:
A no-holds-barred dissection of Keir Starmer’s leadership crisis amidst scandal, the challenges posed by the Trump visit, cabinet reshuffles, infighting within Labour, the rise of right-wing populism, and questions swirling about Andy Burnham’s leadership ambitions. Campbell and Stewart blend insider analysis with sharp disagreement, tracing the current turbulence in UK politics and its links to broader global shifts.

Main Sections

1. State of Starmer’s Leadership and Trump’s UK Visit

(02:14 – 05:31)

• Backdrop:

  • Donald Trump arrives for a UK state visit as Keir Starmer faces mounting criticism and plummeting poll ratings.
  • Angela Rayner’s resignation and a cabinet reshuffle create a “very, very negative” mood around Downing Street.

• Diplomatic Dilemma:

  • Starmer sought to leverage Trump’s visit for tech and investment announcements (e.g., a £5 billion Google deal), but optics are complicated by scandals and negative public mood.
  • Alastair Campbell (02:26): “The mood around Keir Starmer at the moment is just very, very negative...”

• Scandals and Fallout:

  • A Labour advisor's WhatsApp controversy forces another resignation.
  • Campbell raises the challenge of planning a state visit with such political baggage: “Keir Starmer as the Prime Minister... at a time when the mood... is just very, very negative.” (04:41)

2. Handling Scandal: Mandelson, Epstein, and Team Starmer’s Response

(05:31 – 12:16)

• Mismanagement of Information:

  • Discussion on Labour’s failure to pre-empt the Mandelson-Epstein fallout.
  • Rory Stewart (06:52): “If you just play it through... What are all the press conferences? It’s the BBC political correspondent saying to Trump, who’s already embarrassed about the Epstein stuff, what’s all this about Mandelson and the Epstein letters?”

• Failures in Crisis Preparation:

  • Detailed examination of the PMQ (Prime Minister's Questions) debacle: conflicting timelines, lack of full briefing, and the team’s lack of alignment.
  • Campbell (07:42): “I find it unfathomable that anyone can be sent into the House of Commons without at least having all relevant information..."

• Team Dynamics and Blame:

  • McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) both defended and criticized—question of whether he’s too influential or simply trying to implement a coherent agenda.

3. Who’s Really In Charge? McSweeney, Starmer, and the Perils of ‘Shadow Leadership’

(12:16 – 19:01)

• “Power Behind the Throne”:

  • Debate over whether Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief strategist, wields too much control—parallels to Cummings/Johnson and Bannon/Trump.
  • Campbell (13:32): "I think it’s a consequence of there being too much focus on Morgan McSweeney’s role..."

• Campaign vs. Governance:

  • Campbell: “Government is very, very different to campaigning… Unless there is alignment with the team and in particular the leader is driving that, nobody can do a really, really good job.” (17:03)

• Media Perspectives:

  • Reference to New Statesman and broader Westminster class fascination with McSweeney as the “intellectual backbone” of Starmerism.
  • Stewart (18:02): “Tom McTague... is trying to work out what Starmerism is... and the closest they can get often comes back to Morgan McSweeney.”

4. Leadership Threats: Andy Burnham and Party Restlessness

(19:16 – 24:44)

• Quiet Rumblings of a Challenge:

  • Open speculation about Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster; Peter Kyle gently urging Burnham to stay in Manchester.
  • Campbell (21:28): “These conversations are happening. You can’t ignore them… Andy Burnham is, you know, he’s a national figure... even though he’s now best known for being mayor of Manchester.”

• Starmer’s Weakness, Conference Stakes:

  • The proximity of internal leadership talk; much riding on Starmer’s upcoming conference speech.
  • Stewart (22:57): “There is absolutely no way that I can imagine some kind of Churchillian speech which is going to restore it… He’s incapable of doing this.”

• Memorable Moment:

  • Campbell (23:52): “Sometimes when your back is against the wall… that can produce something that is unexpected.”

5. Cabinet Reshuffle and Rising Stars: Shabana Mahmoud’s Test

(25:01 – 27:39)

• Changing of the Guard:

  • Mahmoud promoted as Home Secretary; Cooper demoted to Foreign Secretary; high pressure on new faces to deliver, especially on immigration.
  • Stewart (25:01): “A lot is resting on her [Shabana Mahmoud] because, boy oh boy, they're not going to get the communication out of Starmer... It's basically Wesley Singh, maybe Peter Kyle. And a lot of it is going to be Shabana Mahmoud, isn't it?"

• Strategic Dilemmas:

  • Debate over Labour’s strategy of “tough on immigration” and whether it’s too close to Reform’s talking points.
  • Campbell (27:03): “I just think that the political strategy around this, to my mind, has not been effective because it sounds too much like Reform.”
  • Stewart (27:10): "One story is that what’s missing... is that Starmer is hitting the kind of right wing talking points, but he’s not good enough about articulating the progressive message.”

6. Party Discipline and the Speed of Crisis

(27:46 – 32:41)

• Internal Dissent, Weakening Authority:

  • Early, public Labour backbench dissent (Richard Burgon, Rhys Cadbury) signals unprecedented fragility for a government barely a year old.
  • Stewart (27:46): “It’s a very, very strange moment when openly backbench MPs this soon into a government start talking in the way that Richard Bergen or Rhys Cadbury have been...”

• Goodwill and “Reputational Bank”:

  • Campbell on how the loss of momentum invites disloyalty: if a government is seen as successful, MPs support it even when disagreeing; when not, disloyalty spreads.

• Scandal Management in the Modern Age:

  • Explosion of “bad news days,” the Bannon “flooding the zone with shit” strategy, and how the rapid news cycle both amplifies and potentially erases scandals before the public can keep up.
  • Campbell (30:57): “That’s a very difficult landscape in which to operate. Trump operates in it by flooding the zone with shit, to quote Steve Bannon.”

7. Tommy Robinson’s Trafalgar Square Rally & The Far Right Wave

(36:45 – 48:18)

• Scale and Symbolism:

  • Tommy Robinson organizes a rally of 100,000+ in Trafalgar Square—biggest far-right gathering in years, with international speakers (Eric Zemmour) and direct involvement from Elon Musk.
  • Stewart (37:00): “Tommy Robinson managed to get 100, 130,000 people… Even Nigel Farage is distancing himself.”

• Elon Musk’s Role:

  • Musk projects a fiery video to the crowd: “Whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you. Fight back or die.” (37:52)
  • Campbell (38:01): “I found that part of it absolutely repellent…”

• Far Right Funding and Globalization:

  • US billionaire Robert Shillman’s role in funding Robinson and far right activity internationally.
  • Jewish/Israeli “defense” think-tanks funding anti-immigrant UK activism; the paradox of pro-Israel groups backing UK populists.

• Crowd Analysis:

  • Some participants frame it as a “pride march for guys”—football culture, alcohol, nostalgia, adding to the populist energy.
  • Campbell (46:45): "If you saw the stuff with the police, it was absolutely classic... you're trying to get to the other side, your opponents. This is the anti-fascist demonstration..."

8. Social Media & Algorithmic Radicalization

(48:18 – 53:30)

• The TikTok Effect:

  • Will Davies’ research on right-wing social media, TikTok’s role in amplifying despair, outrage, and far-right talking points.
  • Stewart (48:18): "What you see... is a sense of somebody sitting in their car, looking at their phone, saying, why is this country such an effing joke?... It’s a sense of despair..."

• Algorithmic Bias and Political Manipulation:

  • Example from Germany: TikTok accounts tailored to mainstream parties still receive 75% content from the far-right AfD.
  • Stewart (52:03): “Even they [academics] can’t really understand how these algorithms work... But whatever the cause of it is, there's no doubt that the far right... is getting far more visibility than anyone else on social media.”

• Broader Implications:

  • Technology, politics, and the pace of news are outpacing “the old political class.” Social media creates an overwhelming, dystopic sense of national decline, fueling discontent.

9. Reform, Defections, and the “Authenticity” Trap on the Right: Danny Kruger & Farage

(53:30 – 58:05)

• Danny Kruger Defects to Reform:

  • Kruger, seen by some as an “authentic” intellectual, defects to Farage’s Reform party, underlining a migration of the Conservative right.
  • Stewart (53:53): “He’s a really interesting figure... but... along with all these positive qualities... there is something very, very disturbing for me...”

• Elite Drift Toward Populism:

  • Kruger’s journey mirrors that of some Tories: from Cameron’s “compassionate conservatism” to hard Brexit, to Farage.
  • The paradoxical embrace of Christianity as a far-right identity badge, contrasted with their real-world alliances.

10. The Weaponization of Tragedy and US-UK Political Symmetry

(58:05 – 63:20)

• Moral Panics and “Us vs. Them”:

  • After the Charlie Kirk assassination, US right uses the tragedy as a rallying point for crackdowns; fears of similar tactics crossing the Atlantic.
  • Campbell (59:28): "The metamorphosis of Jesus Christ from humble servant... to a symbol that stands for gun rights, prosperity theology, anti science... is truly the strangest transformation in human history."

• Widening Orwellian Rhetoric:

  • Stephen Miller (Trump aide) calls for “unleashing the organs of the state” on an ill-defined “far left terrorist conspiracy.”
  • Stewart (61:10): “Once you have a completely ill-defined conspiracy and a moment like that, that is often where the fascists take all their strength.”

• British Dilemmas:

  • Debate around the appropriateness of Trump’s UK visit, anti-Trump protests, and Starmer’s navigation of these treacherous waters.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Leadership Chaos and Feeling “Old”:
  Campbell (19:16): “We’re now being talked about as a government that’s kind of been there forever. It doesn’t feel like we’ve been there for a year with a huge majority.”

• Questioning Starmer’s Oratory:
  Stewart (22:57): “There is absolutely no way that I can imagine some kind of Churchillian speech which is going to restore it... he’s incapable of doing this.”

• On Populist Rallies and the Far Right:
  Campbell (41:30): “To turn out to a march, a rally that, you know, is being headed by a many times convicted far right thug, you're making a statement, I think, just by being there.”

• Algorithmic Danger:
  Stewart (52:03): “There’s no doubt that the far right... is getting far more visibility than anyone else on social media.”

• On US-UK Parallels:
  Stewart (62:34): “It is really, really interesting how pretty well informed people suddenly have to talk as though they’ve always known who Charlie Kirk was... It’s the Americanization of British politics.”

Key Timestamps

• 02:14 – Trump visit, state of Labour, context of negative mood
• 05:31 – Scandal preparation breakdown, PMQs, Mandelson-Epstein timeline
• 12:16 – Morgan McSweeney debate: shadow strategist or scapegoat?
• 19:16 – Leadership whisperings, Andy Burnham’s potential return
• 25:01 – Cabinet reshuffle fallout, Shabana Mahmoud in the spotlight
• 27:46 – Labour dissent, loss of party discipline
• 36:45 – Tommy Robinson’s rally, Musk’s involvement, far right funding
• 48:18 – Social media and right-wing radicalization
• 53:30 – Danny Kruger defects to Reform, failings of “compassionate conservatism”
• 58:05 – Death of Charlie Kirk weaponized by US right, Christianity and politics
• 61:10 – Miller’s conspiratorial rhetoric; implications for democracy
• 62:34 – Americanization of British politics, Charlie Kirk’s sudden notoriety

Tone & Atmosphere

• Frank, often pessimistic, but with flashes of humour and wit.
• Campbell is more indignant and urgent, while Stewart uses wry, sometimes sardonic, commentary.
• There’s camaraderie, but genuine disagreement—especially around Starmer’s abilities and party strategy, as well as differing views on the best response to populism’s rise.

Conclusion

This episode offers a deep and at times bleak exploration of Labour’s crises, the risks posed by resurgent far right populism, and the global interplay of scandal, technology, and leadership style. Looming in the background: the possibility of a Starmer implosion and the uncertainty of who might step into the breach, as personalities like Andy Burnham hover and new political strategies are urgently needed.