The Rest Is Politics – Episode 453

Trump’s Far Right Allies in Germany: Is History Repeating Itself?

Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Guest: Gerald Knaus (Migration and European Policy Expert)

Overview

In this special episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dive deep into the alarming rise of the far-right in Germany, particularly the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), and the international networks fueling right-wing populism. Their guest, Gerald Knaus — a prominent European policy expert and writer — provides expert analysis, connecting the German situation to global trends, including the influence of Trump and his MAGA movement. The episode critically examines the historical parallels, policy failures, and the risks for European democracy, with a call to vigilance and civic engagement.

Key Discussion Points

1. Introduction to Gerald Knaus and the AfD (03:36–06:55)

• Rory introduces Gerald Knaus, emphasizing his extensive experience in European politics and migration.
• Campbell highlights Knaus’ work on immigration, mentioning his involvement in the EU-Turkey deal and his bestselling book on immigration policy.

Gerald Knaus:

• Outlines the foundational period of post-war Western European institutions since 1949 (Adenauer, NATO, EU, Council of Europe).
• Describes AfD as fundamentally anti-Adenauer, anti-western, and anti-liberal, threatening to undo Germany’s democratic commitments.
• Focus on AfD leader Björn Höcke, who pushes identitarian, anti-Muslim, and xenophobic narratives.

“At the core of their emotional appeal is the promise to expel Muslims from Europe.” – Gerald Knaus (05:38)

• Traces how the Identitarian movement influenced AfD’s ideological transformation since 2013.
• AfD is now polling at 39% in key East German states; could achieve a majority.

2. The Far-Right Spectrum: AfD, Trump, Orban, Le Pen, Farage (06:55–10:19)

• Campbell seeks clarity on the far-right scale: “Let’s take Trump, Meloni, Orban, AfD, Le Pen, Farage. Where are they on a scale?” (06:56)
• Knaus aligns AfD most closely with Trump’s brand of populism.
  • Notes internal party struggles: Höcke was nearly expelled for extremism—now publicly supported by party leadership.
  • Points to chilling rhetoric, e.g., posters calling to remove “1.4 million people,” not just asylum seekers but also long-term residents and citizens.
  • Links their “remigration” stance to language and tactics used before ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia.

Notable Quote:

“They are supporting a party with a leadership that openly talks about… millions of people being made so uncomfortable, which means violating their human rights, that they will leave or be expelled.” – Gerald Knaus (08:42)

• Stresses that AfD openly seeks alliance with Putin, wants Germany out of the EU (“Dexit”), and is a direct threat to European neighbors.

3. International Far-Right Alliances: MAGA, Orban, Musk & Beyond (10:19–15:47)

• Rory references the recent 130,000-strong far-right rally in London, featuring Tommy Robinson, Éric Zemmour, and Elon Musk.

Gerald Knaus:

• Underscores Germany’s pivotal role in the European order; any shift has continent-wide consequences.
• Outlines Russian and American right-wing interests in destabilizing Germany’s liberal political consensus.
• Notes high-profile figures like Elon Musk and JD Vance expressing explicit support for AfD.

“Elon Musk openly call[s] on people to vote for the AfD.” – Gerald Knaus (11:13)

• Explains Viktor Orban’s strategy: anticipated the 2015 “culture revolution” via refugee influx as a trigger for an anti-liberal, populist wave across Europe.
  • Sees echoes now, with renewed refugee crises and populist gains.
  • Russia actively works to destabilize Europe via displacement (e.g., encouraging crisis-driven migration).

“…Putin tries to destroy infrastructure because he knows… our friends benefit politically.” – Gerald Knaus (14:37)

4. Democratic Fragility & Lessons from History (16:37–25:15)

• Campbell: Envisions realistic path for far right to power in Germany, France, even UK, given weakened democratic cultures.
• Knaus: Draws inspiration from Jean Monnet—advocates determined realism, not naive optimism.
  • Western Europe’s unusually peaceful post-1950 run is underpinned by NATO, the Council of Europe, and European integration.
  • Warns: If key states withdraw (e.g., UK from human rights conventions), core European trust and institutional fabric could dissolve.

“We need to recognize what we are about to lose, because these institutions are now at risk.” – Gerald Knaus (16:54)

• Recaps post-Cold War European violence (300,000 killed, 10 million displaced outside EU/NATO), suggesting that reverting to pre-EU/NATO structures risks similar outcomes.
• Sees current anti-system parties as a direct attempt to unravel the postwar order.

5. Is Trumpism Truly a Threat? (21:07–22:30)

• Rory: Many believe US institutions can contain Trump—should we be more alarmed?
• Knaus: History warns against underestimating declared intentions; cites Austria’s democratic collapse in 1933.
  • Argues for taking political extremism at face value.

“We should believe when people announce things. We should take them seriously.” – Gerald Knaus (22:31)

• Details Trump’s signals: delegitimizing opposition, attacking courts, valorizing Jan 6 attackers, building loyalist-controlled security structures.
• Analogizes potential US democratic subversion to the Austrian experience of swift, incremental authoritarian takeover.

6. Erosion of Democratic Norms & The “Big Lie” (25:15–28:05)

• Rory: On post-assassination of Charlie Kirk—are we seeing a new normalization of political violence and conspiracy in the US?
• Knaus:
  • Notes post-Trump reversal of loyal opposition norm—entry to his administration now based on asserting “the big lie” (Biden’s illegitimacy).
  • Connects this to totalitarian tactics (Orwell’s “2+2=5”).
  • Warns: When facts are lost, democracy cannot endure.

“When this is a test to join a democratic government, then you expect this government to have no problem lying about anything.” – Gerald Knaus (26:49)

7. Far-Right Militarism: US Encouragement of European Rearmament (28:06–30:06)

• Rory: Questions contradiction in US right’s urge for European rearmament while supporting European far-right nationalist parties.
• Knaus: For alt-right theorists (e.g., Curtis Yarvin), destroying liberal international order is a global objective; attacking EU from within is strategic. Supporting anti-EU parties in Germany serves that goal—even at the risk of a militarized, unstable Europe.

8. Rules-Based Order, Gaza, and Human Rights Institutions (30:06–32:56)

• Rory: On European response to Gaza.
• Knaus: Europe’s failure to defend the International Criminal Court undermines its own standard of international law.
  • Reminds listeners how colonial abuses delayed ratification of European human rights norms in the past.
  • Argues human rights compliance isn’t mere idealism, but the foundation of better, lasting policy. Dismantling international law would revert Europe to its most violent past.

“…Human rights compliant actions aren't just naive idealism. They are the basis for better policy.” – Gerald Knaus (32:41)

Member Discussion: British Exceptionalism & Populist Drift (32:56–37:31)

• Campbell and Stewart reflect on UK’s lack of serious engagement with European populist trends, myth of British immunity to extremism, and widespread factual misperceptions around immigration.

Notable Quotes:

“The British public think that 50% of immigrants come here on small boats. It's less than 4%. That is the drowning out of fact.” – Alastair Campbell (34:21)

• Call for deeper public understanding, less complacency, and imaginative cooperation with Europe.

Highlighted Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the AfD’s intent:
  “The poster said, let's get rid of 1.4 million people... It's about people who have legal status.”
  – Gerald Knaus (07:45)

• On complacency:
  “There’s nothing in human nature that says Europeans will not fall back to where they were in the past.”
  – Gerald Knaus (18:48)

• On the US:
  “When this is a test to join a democratic government, then you expect this government to have no problem lying about anything.”
  – Gerald Knaus (26:49)

• On defending European institutions:
  “We need to defend the idea that what Churchill and Adenauer and Monet and Schumann and Bevin… created in the late 40s, early 50s, as a result of lessons learned in two terrible wars, it worked.”
  – Gerald Knaus (20:11)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:36 – Introduction to Gerald Knaus and AfD’s evolution
• 06:56 – Comparison of far-right politicians; AfD’s radicalization
• 10:19 – International far-right networks; Russian and MAGA involvement
• 16:37 – European institutions at risk; historical perspective on peace
• 21:07 – Should we be worried about Trump’s return?
• 22:31 – Lessons from Austria’s democratic collapse
• 25:15 – Democracy, facts, and the normalization of political violence in the US
• 28:30 – US right-wing’s strategic interest in destabilizing Europe
• 30:12 – Support for the ICC and international law; lessons from colonial-era abuses
• 32:56–37:31 – UK debate, exceptionalism, immigration facts, and European cooperation

Final Thoughts

The episode paints an urgent picture: Europe—especially Germany—faces a pivotal test as far-right parties threaten the postwar liberal order. The AfD’s radicalism, bolstered by global networks and historical amnesia, is not just a German problem, but a bellwether for Western democracy. The hosts and Knaus urge vigilance, historical awareness, and active defense of institutions and factual debate—warning that complacency leaves democracies fragile and open to authoritarian drift.

For listeners seeking further insight, members can access a deeper interview on immigration featuring Gerald Knaus and Zoe Gardner on the Rest Is Politics platform.