The Rest Is Politics – Episode 454

"Starmer's Farage Fightback and Trump's Unworkable Gaza Plan"
Date: September 30, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

In this live episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dive deep into two critical issues dominating UK and global politics:

• Keir Starmer’s pivotal Labour Party conference speech and the party’s evolving strategy on facing down Nigel Farage and the Reform Party
• Donald Trump’s much-hyped 20-point “peace plan” for Gaza, delivered with Benjamin Netanyahu and the controversial involvement of Tony Blair

The hosts use their trademark mix of insider insight, historical context, and sharp disagreement to interrogate the thick fog of present-day politics, focusing on how progressive politics must respond to rising right-wing populism, the limits of technocratic fixes, and the messy moral realities of peace negotiations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. Labour Conference & Starmer's Speech – "Fightback Against Farage"

[01:11 – 25:12]

A. The Conference Mood and Starmer's Reception

• Campbell describes a "genuine rapturous" response to Starmer's speech in Liverpool, emphasizing a new "fire" within the party, particularly when Starmer hit hard on Farage and "Reform" (01:11–04:31)
  • Quote: "They've now absolutely set out, he is the enemy, he is the person they've got to take down. And I think it's that that's put a bit of fire in their belly." (07:53, Campbell)
• Rory Stewart highlights the cyclical nature of political hype around speeches, noting that speeches often revive the party's spirits before news narratives quickly turn again (02:05–02:40).

B. Strategic Framing: Battling Populism

• Stewart stresses the delicate act for center-left parties:
  • They must empathize with public frustrations, but distinguish themselves from populists by offering credible and optimistic alternatives (04:31–06:53).
  • Notes Labour's split messaging: Rachel Reeves' prudent economics vs. Starmer's nod towards Swedish-style social democracy.
  • Quote: "It's very difficult to work out how you can be a kind of bidenomic social democrat when you don't have any extra money, unless you're prepared to cut welfare, which he can't..." (06:35, Stewart)

C. Policy Surprises & Missed Opportunities

• Campbell points to Starmer’s notable shift: prioritizing apprenticeships and "a Britain built for all," moving away from Blair-era university targets. This resonated strongly with the party base (06:53–07:51).
• Both hosts note Starmer’s attempt to "reclaim the flag" and frame patriotism as inclusive and progressive through "patriotic renewal" (07:53–08:58).

D. Starmer vs. Farage – Framing the Contest

• The hosts debate how effective Labour is at targeting Farage:
  • Stewart finds Starmer's attack—that Farage "isn't proud of Britain"—"complicated" and potentially too clever for voters, preferring a simpler, more values-based message (18:20–19:02).
  • Campbell observes Labour needs a clearer, more consistent attack line as Farage rises in polling, with multiple "scattergun" approaches currently in play (20:02).

E. Growth, Welfare, and Party Tensions

• The central economic tension is between the party’s aspirations to invest and lift people out of poverty and the fiscal constraints likely to limit what’s possible—especially on issues like lifting the two-child welfare limit and revisiting cuts (15:15–17:23).
• Stewart calls out the need for Labour to prove it is serious about economic growth through a blend of mainstream investment and credible restraint (14:09–15:15).

F. Political Fallout: Tory Collapse and Reform’s Rise

• With polling showing Reform surging, Campbell warns against overreacting to MRP polls but acknowledges a full shake-up of UK party politics is underway, with existential stakes for the Conservatives (22:03–25:01).
  • Quote: "I think Kemi Badenok's in a lot of trouble and of course she's got Robert Jenrick, who's basically kind of trying to be a kind of mini Farage..." (23:14, Campbell)

II. Trump’s “Unworkable” Gaza Plan – “Diplomacy Without Palestinians”

[29:40 – 60:05]

A. Overview and First Impressions

• Trump and Netanyahu present a 20-point plan in the Oval Office, with Tony Blair named to a “body of peace.” Campbell likens it to the complexity of the Northern Ireland process, but sees “hardly anything to be optimistic about” (29:40–30:40).

B. Fatal Flaws: Absence of Palestinian Agency

• Stewart lambasts the plan for excluding Palestinians from negotiation, comparing it to the absurdity of a Good Friday Agreement without Republicans (30:40–32:21).
  • Quote: "The Palestinians are not part of the negotiation. This is a peace deal that's been put together between Israel and the US." (30:40, Stewart)

C. Unrealistic Security & Governance Proposals

• Drawing parallels to the slow, stepwise IRA decommissioning, Campbell and Stewart consider the 72-hour disarmament demand for Hamas fantastical and a “surrender document.” Any “concessions” by Israel—like foreign aid or no expulsions—are in reality minimum international law obligations (32:22–33:42).
• Both question the feasibility of a “technocratic, apolitical” Palestinian government, the legal authority of the new “international body,” and the lack of genuine reconstruction commitments. Comparison is made to difficult experiences in Iraq, Kosovo, and Bosnia (41:18–49:11).

D. Deep Dive: Who Actually Runs Gaza?

• Stewart notes any future government in Gaza will draw legitimacy questions, as Hamas is entrenched at all levels; the suggestion that a new, neutral Palestinian technocracy can emerge rapidly is implausible (42:01–42:27).
• Control of borders, security, and aid remains with Israel, in stark contrast to postwar reconstruction models in Germany or the Balkans (45:15–46:27).

E. International “Success Stories” and Trump’s Development Plan

• Campbell highlights the plan’s vague invocation of “miracle cities” like Dubai as models for Gaza, despite the total lack of open borders, investment climate, or security (45:15–46:27).
• Both hosts remain deeply skeptical that Arab states would fund or enforce a plan certain to be seen by Palestinians as collaboration with Israel (47:58–49:11).

F. The Political Logic

• The plan is set up to be rejected by Hamas, allowing Israel to continue its offensive while blaming the other side for missed peace (36:26–37:49).
  • Quote: "[If] Hamas rejects this... then say, well, Hamas rejected it and we can continue. So one question will be, does Netanyahu want this to happen or not?" (37:49, Stewart)
• Stewart and Campbell both note the “perfect world” nature of the plan and foresee stalemate, but see a glimmer of hope in continued international engagement—even if only for appearances (53:11–54:49).

G. Audience Questions & Critique

• Addressing accusations of anti-Trump bias, Stewart asserts that "pushing for peace is not enough… there are many alternatives"—with legitimate, inclusive, internationally structured negotiations being the only way progress is likely (57:10).
• Campbell: "I think it is not unreasonable then to say, okay, these are the questions that flow from it... you can't just say, this is what we think should happen, and therefore it will happen." (57:10–58:18)

H. Tony Blair’s Role

• Stewart is critical: “If he does this, Tony Blair will have responsibility without power, the power will remain with Israel and he'll be carrying the can for things that he can't implement.” (59:34)
• Campbell defenders Blair as simply committed to public service (60:05).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Farage as Labour’s Main Adversary:
  • “They've now absolutely set out, he is the enemy, he is the person they've got to take down...” – Campbell (07:53)
• On the Difficulty of Defining Labour’s Offer:
  • “The problem with that, of course, is they can't, like Biden, borrow.” – Stewart (06:35)
• On Resetting Patriotism:
  • “Reclaiming the flag was a big part of this, but I think it was about saying, ultimately we have values that they don't agree with.” – Campbell (07:53)
• On Gaza Peace Plan Exclusion:
  • “The Palestinians are not part of the negotiation.” – Stewart (30:40)
  • “If you're a reform voter, are you really going to believe that the basic problem with Farage is that he's not proud of Britain? No, not really.” – Stewart (19:17)
• On Technocratic Fixes Abroad:
  • “Who chooses these people? In other words, do they have legitimacy?” – Stewart (42:01)
  • “This is written for a perfect world... but it is so not a perfect world.” – Campbell (52:58)
• On Political Cynicism and Hope:
  • “I actually think it is a good thing that they keep trying, that they keep going... but it is when you are talking about something as important as this... I think we're entitled to probe and press the detail...” – Campbell (57:10–57:58)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Introduction & Labour Themes: 01:11–08:58
• Starmer's Economic Challenge & Speech Analysis: 08:58–15:15
• Labour–Farage Strategy Discussion: 17:50–20:02
• Policy and Social Tensions (Welfare, Growth): 15:15–17:23
• Reform & Tory Turmoil: 22:03–25:01
• Transition to Gaza Plan Discussion: 29:40
• Trump’s 20-point Gaza Plan Analysis: 30:40–43:50
• Governance & Security Dilemmas for Gaza: 41:18–49:11
• Audience Reaction and Final Thoughts: 54:49–60:05
• Tony Blair and International Mediation: 59:34–60:05

Summary

This episode showcases “The Rest Is Politics” at its best—relentlessly granular, contextually rich, and unafraid of disagreement.

• Labour’s Liverpool moment is framed as a turning point not just for Starmer but for the party’s posture against Farage and the populist surge. The celebration is cautious, tempered by the hard tradeoffs on welfare, growth, and identity.
• Trump’s Gaza proposal is dissected as symbolism swaddled in fantasy—technocratically ambitious but politically tone-deaf and structurally rigged to fail, absent Palestinian input and credible enforcement. Though both hosts wish for a breakthrough, they stress that process and legitimacy matter.

For those seeking clarity on the tangled crossroads of British and global politics, this episode stands as a compelling, sometimes sobering listen.