The Rest Is Politics – Episode 455

Question Time: Is Europe Already At War With Russia?
Date: October 1, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Overview

In this Question Time episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dive into escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, particularly Russian interference and the resilience of democracy in Moldova and the Czech Republic, as well as the broader picture in the Netherlands. The hosts discuss the rise of far-right populism, Russian hybrid warfare, and push back on the implications for the UK's foreign policy and Europe's political future. They also answer listener questions on National Parks protections, highlight a youth-led policy idea, and pay tribute to recently deceased public figures.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immigration Debate – Context and Deep Dive

• Exclusive content for members will feature Zoe Gardner (liberal pro-immigration) and Gerald Knaus (expert, author on immigration policy).
• [01:49] Alastair Campbell: “Gerald...has absolutely devoted the last couple of decades of his life to studying immigration and immigration policy.”
• Focuses on the polarizing nature of immigration debate in the UK—between open liberal policies and stricter controls.
• Campbell and Stewart point to the direct impact of this debate on major British parties and politicians (Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage).

Notable Quotes

• [02:14] Rory Stewart: "This is one of the debates of our time. And really relevant for the whole world."
• [02:51] Campbell: "How worried are you that the values have been eroded, that actually people are saying just let them drown?"
• [02:57] Rory Stewart: "We’ve had 30,000 people now in 10 years die in the Mediterranean. The deadliest border in the world is the border around the EU."
• [03:09] Rory Stewart: "You need a way of controlling borders that does not end up going down the Orban route, the Trump route or the Gaza route."

2. Moldova & Russian Interference in Eastern Europe

• [03:45] Listener Question: Tilly Abrahams asks about Moldova and predictions for the Czech election—are these tests for resisting Putin?
• [04:07] Rory Stewart: Recapitulates the Moldovan election, emphasizing:
  • Russian interference (bomb scares, disinformation).
  • Importance of the Transnistria region as a Russian satellite.
  • President Maia Sandu’s pro-European, reformist policies and her resilience.
• [05:24] Alastair Campbell: "I find her very impressive. I think it's really terrifying to be the leader of a country like Moldova right Now... Absolutely on the list of countries that Putin would like to have within his sphere of orbit."
• Low turnout (52%) in Moldova is noted as "very low," reflecting the challenges of civic participation.

Notable Insight

• Russian interference is now subtle, coordinated, and digital—often more impactful than old analog methods.

3. The Czech Republic’s ‘Proxy Vote’ and Russian Influence

• Czech politics framed as a battle between technocratic pro-European leadership (Peter Fiala) and the populist, oligarch Babiš—a "fellow traveler" with Orban and Fico in Slovakia.
• [07:27] Campbell: "If the more pro Russian candidate gets in, then you have this little grouping... that is frankly tending to act as a break on what the European Union is trying to do."
• [08:44] Stewart: Lays out the intellectual tradition difference: Havel (liberal internationalist) vs. Klaus (nativist).
• Role of disinformation and Russian-controlled fake news outlets is highlighted:
  • [11:06] Campbell: "Fake news outlets controlled by Russia were producing more content within the Czech current debate than the entirety of the Czech conventional mainstream media."
• Discussion of a cautionary "what if Russia wins?" political novel, envisioning Europe letting down Article 5 in the Baltics (NATO collective defense collapse) — again, underlining perceived lack of resolve.

Notable Quotes

• [12:49] Stewart: "We did see this through the Belarusian border where the Russians and Belarusians were pushing migrants up against the Polish border."
• [13:03] Stewart: "Although there isn’t a traditional migrant issue in the Czech election, they have accepted 350,000 Ukrainians. That’s about 3% of the Czech population."

4. Netherlands: Fractured Politics and Far-Right Challenge

• [14:21] Rory Stewart: Responds to Dutch listener's question on political stability.
• Analysis of Geert Wilders and the rise of fragmented far-right parties:
  • Multiple far-right leaders (Wilders, Edemann, Bode) splitting the vote, but together surpassing 30%.
  • Coalition politics means Wilders likely cannot govern even as largest party.
• [17:15] Alastair Campbell: Notes new centrist leader Henry Bonnental drawing a Nick Clegg-style appeal—could lead a coalition despite Wilders' vote share.
• Social tensions and recent riots mark Wilders’ challenge, but Timmermans (Labour/Greens) receives praise for openly condemning far-right violence.
• Netherlands’ issues are revealed as both classic (immigration, populism) and uniquely local (language, culture wars, economic strength).
  • [20:22] Stewart: "100% of the key printing for the chips which are right at the core of the. The AI revolution, are produced in the Netherlands. So in a sense they have a stranglehold over the American economy."

Notable Quotes

• [14:51] Alastair Campbell: "This is going to get me in hot water. I prefer Rotterdam to Amsterdam."
• [19:04] Stewart: "One very popular flag they were carrying was... the House of Orange has suddenly become politicized."
• [22:49] Stewart: "The odd parallels with Nigel Farage... It's just him and he seems to find it very difficult to get on with other people."

5. Is Europe Already at War With Russia?

• Stewart references Fiona Hill’s assertion that “we are basically now at war with Russia,” pointing to cyberattacks, drone incursions, and election interference.
• The hosts stress the theme of "hybrid warfare": disinformation, migration manipulation (e.g., Belarus/Poland border crisis), attempts to erode Western democratic institutions.
• Cautionary tales are shared about how the West could stumble into “peace” on Russia’s terms (through exhaustion or appeasement).

6. National Parks & Policy on Protected Landscapes

[Timestamp: 26:16]

• Listener Julian asks about the future of UK National Parks—current government considering amendments to weaken planning protections for development.
• [26:51] Rory Stewart: “Are you trying to build 10,000 houses or some big AI data center, in which case... you should not be putting it in the middle of a national park...”
• The hosts urge the government not to weaken protections, emphasizing their long-term environmental and social value.

7. Youth Policy Competition Winner

[Timestamp: 29:46]

• Winner: Rosie Holsall (18, Yorkshire) proposes annual provision of free sports bras and fittings for all secondary school girls.
• Argued as an intervention to boost girls’ participation in sport, prevent health issues (osteoporosis), and build confidence.
• Campbell and Stewart express delight at Rosie’s chance in-person encounter.

Memorable Stats Shared

• Only 36% of girls wear a sports bra for PE; 72% feel self-conscious exercising without one.

8. Tributes to Late Political Figures

[Timestamp: 31:58]

• John Sandwich, Charles Guthrie (Chief of Defence Staff), Ming Campbell (former Lib Dem leader), and Martin Mansur (Good Friday Agreement negotiator) are remembered fondly for their characters, contributions, and personal stories.
• The stories are full of humor and warmth, e.g., Campbell’s run-in with Ming Campbell’s wife.

Quotes

• [33:57] Stewart: “Remind us who [Ming Campbell] was.”
  Campbell: “He was once described ... as the fastest white man on earth. Famously beat O.J. Simpson in a race once.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• [08:44] Stewart: “Czech Republic very much performing at a much bigger scale, you know, extraordinary for quite a small country, that it was really shifting the world.”
• [11:06] Campbell: “Fake news outlets controlled by Russia were producing more content within the Czech current debate than the entirety of the Czech conventional mainstream media.”
• [16:19] Stewart: “As they go into the election, that's exactly what's happening. So [Bonnental] actually might end up as being the one that kind of emerges as the leader of a possible government. And he's come out of nowhere...”
• [18:18] Campbell: “I think we'll get credit for that because the two, the more centrist parties were sort of basically a bit worried about offending these people who'd been out sort of beating up policemen.”
• [26:51] Stewart: “The basic drive of this is the treasury and others are saying it gets in the way of growth, having to worry about a protected landscape. Now, I think that's daft...”
• [38:48] Stewart: “The window of what's acceptable has shifted so far under Trump... Trump's not so bad because he's not Hitler. He's more like Mussolini. And then people will then say, and Farage is not so bad because he's not quite Trump...”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:20 — Members’ deep dive on immigration and preview.
• 03:45 — Moldova election and Russian interference.
• 07:27 — The Czech Republic: pro-European vs. pro-Russian politics.
• 11:06 — Russian misinformation and "What if Russia Wins?" scenario.
• 13:23 — The Netherlands: fractured political system, far-right, and coalition dynamics.
• 20:22 — Dutch technology and economic strength; culture and identity tensions.
• 26:16 — National Parks: UK policy debate.
• 29:46 — Youth policy competition winner: proposal for free sports bras.
• 31:58 — Tributes: John Sandwich, Charles Guthrie, Ming Campbell, and Martin Mansur.

Episode Tone & Style

• Tone: Engaged, respectful, occasionally witty and self-deprecating; balance of personal anecdotes and hard analysis.
• Style: Back-and-forth dialogue, disagreement with civility, peppered with historical context and references.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode is a compelling sweep across current European political turbulence: elections under threat of Russian interference, the resilience of liberal democracy, and the rise and limits of populism in the East and West. For listeners who crave intelligent, candid, and deeply informed political discussion—with plenty of humor, humility, and context—the conversation delivers both granular insights (turnout rates, migration stats) and wide-angle perspective on the future of Europe and the UK.

Skip straight to:

• [03:45] for deep-dive on Russian interference in Moldova and Czech Republic,
• [13:23] for shifting Dutch politics and far-right dynamics,
• [26:16] for the National Parks question,
• [29:46] for the inspiring youth policy proposal.