Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: The Rest Is Politics
Episode: 457 – Is Trump Planning Regime Change?
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: October 8, 2025

Overview

This lively episode tackles major current affairs, focusing prominently on the escalating U.S. posture toward Venezuela under President Trump, the moral and legal dangers of "regime change" ambitions, and related American immigration policy. The hosts also journey through French political chaos, press illegality scandals in the UK, the evolution of the Green Party, and close with a heartfelt discussion of Jane Goodall’s legacy. Campbell and Stewart exchange sharp analysis, personal anecdotes, and witty banter throughout, modeling civil disagreement.

Main Topics & Key Discussion Points

1. Is the U.S. Gearing Up for Regime Change in Venezuela?

[01:19 – 06:17]

• Background:

  • Venezuela, plagued by authoritarianism under Maduro (who allegedly stole the last election), is in the crosshairs of U.S. policy.
  • Trump administration, especially pushed by Marco Rubio, has upped military activity: drone strikes, destroying supposed drug boats, and a $50 million bounty on Maduro’s head.

• Escalation of Force:

  • U.S. action now includes eight warships, submarines, drones, and F-35 fighters in the region, plus thousands of Marines.
  • Allegations drug boats targeted aren't even necessarily headed to the U.S.
  • "[The Trump government] is no longer remotely interested in international legal guidance." – Rory Stewart [02:29]

• Legal and Ethical Concerns:

  • Actions lack Congressional clarity or any due process.
  • "It’s as if nothing would stop them sending a drone over Britain, blowing up a bunch of people in the British streets, and claiming they’re drug runners... with no evidence whatsoever." – Rory Stewart [03:30]
  • The suspected real motive: create a legal basis under ‘time of war’ to mass deport Venezuelan migrants.

• Political Context:

  • Trump is using the 'war on drugs' and temporary protected status (TPS) for Venezuelans as wedge issues, enhancing his populist law-and-order credentials.
  • Notably, a judge’s house was set on fire after hindering Trump policies, showing the intimidatory climate.

2. US Immigration Enforcement, ICE, and the Erosion of Law

[06:17 – 10:25]

• Normalization of Draconian Tactics:

  • Stewart laments the collapse of legal norms, even among traditionally liberal Americans.
  • ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has ballooned to a $160 billion budget, operating largely unchecked, with masked agents and aggressive, theatrical enforcement.
  • "One of their advertising posters represents the white American angel with a group of settlers chasing off Native Americans... ‘Protect the homeland, protect the heritage.’" – Rory Stewart [07:46]

• Wider Populist Influence:

  • UK political figures, including Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, peddle modeling British deportation plans after America's ICE—a prospect the hosts find dangerous.
  • "Nobody should ever vote for any party in Britain that was modeling itself on ICE." – Rory Stewart [09:40]

3. U.S. Government Shutdown: Blame Games and Political Strategy

[10:25 – 13:01]

• Shutdown and Polarization:
  • Shutdown largely centers on disputes over Medicare and immigration.
  • Trump frames it as Democrats favoring "illegals" over Americans.
  • The hosts critique the increasingly toxic blame culture, noting Trump previously said government shutdowns are always the president's fault—unless he is the president.

4. French Political Chaos and Macron's Predicament

[13:01 – 19:33]

• Prime Minister Resignation Drama:

  • Macron’s PM, Sebastien Lecornu, resigned after ~25 days, failing to assemble a government able to pass fiscal reforms.
  • Chronic deadlock: three parliamentary blocs — far left, centrists (Macron), and far right — unable to collaborate.

• Systemic Issues:

  • "You need at least two of them, or half of one, joining [the government]... But the point is... they're not giving each other anything." – Alastair Campbell [15:30]
  • Constitution blamed for super-powered presidency out of step with parliamentary reality.

• Implications for Europe:

  • European unity is hampered by France’s political fragility, just as the continent faces urgent strategic and security challenges.
  • "At the time when Europe needs to be stepping up in the age of Trump, we've got a very, very weak Macron..." – Rory Stewart [19:01]

5. Phone Hacking Scandal and ‘The Hack’ TV Series

[20:26 – 25:38]

• Alastair Campbell’s Experience:

  • Reflects on dramatization "The Hack" about phone hacking and police corruption.
  • His cameo line: "It's like when they've set out to kill you and then when they've killed you, they get a bit bored and are missing something so they try and kill the corpse." – Alastair Campbell [21:16]

• Scandal Details:

  • Tabloid reporters hacked voicemails to fuel sensational stories.
  • Few senior figures were punished, and media quickly closed ranks—Rebecca Brooks, e.g., returned to Murdoch empire after resignation and massive payoff.
  • Leveson 2 (a proposed second inquiry): unlikely under Keir Starmer due to anticipated media backlash.

6. Rupert Murdoch’s Influence and the Fox News–Trump Relationship

[25:43 – 29:38]

• Murdoch’s Power:
  • Hosts discuss their miniseries exploring Murdoch’s reach as a media mogul.
  • Stewart: “He seemed like a real newspaper man, wanting to challenge his editors. But if you score his power over 70 years… he’s up in a pretty high place in a global league table.” [27:23]
  • Campbell: “When Murdoch tried and failed to stop Trump, it was the moment he lost control of Fox News … Trump became a more powerful player inside Fox News than Murdoch.” [29:11]
  • The dynamic: “This is the man who makes or breaks presidents... But Trump broke the equation.” – Stewart [28:56]

7. AI, Government, and Public Sector Reform

[33:45 – 37:59, ad-integrated, substantive discussion]

• Potential for AI:
  • Both hosts reflect on how AI (like Google Gemini) could have transformed government workflows, e.g., integrating databases, drafting speeches, flooding prediction.
  • “One of the things that AI can now do very powerfully is begin to predict flooding events with more accuracy... It’s far more cost-efficient.” – Rory Stewart [35:09]

8. Media Impartiality and Green Party Coverage

[37:59 – 43:44]

• Unequal Attention:

  • BBC gives more coverage to Reform than the Green Party, despite Greens' comparable poll results and MP numbers.
  • Social media levels some playing field for the Greens.
  • "The Liberal Democrats have had 645 [media mentions per MP], less than 1% of mentions that Farage gets." – Alastair Campbell [39:25]

• Green Party’s Messaging and Risks:

  • Green Party leader Zach Polanski praised for communication skills, but concern expressed:
  • Risk of being “too woke” or “never rising above 10%” if focus narrows to hot-button left issues instead of broader appeal.
  • "[Polanski’s] party election broadcast... was a very effective piece of communication. He was all about wealth and inequality." – Campbell [42:20]
  • Populist messaging: “Make hope normal again” [43:44]

9. European Elections and Syrian “Hybrid Parliament”

[44:00 – 45:51]

• Czech Republic and Syria Updates:
  • Czech PM Babis’s coalition struggles.
  • In Syria, Ahmed Al Shara’s hybrid parliament model is cautiously cited as "a step in the right direction."

10. Tribute: Jane Goodall’s Legacy of Hope

[45:51 – 47:44]

• Impact and Anecdotes:
  • Stewart shares being upstaged by Goodall’s chimpanzee impression at a Paris university honorary degree ceremony.
  • Campbell highlights her final messages on hope, advocating global optimism and jesting that “Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping should be sent on the first spaceship and never come back.”
  • “You have to keep hope and everybody has to have hope in their hearts and we can all make a difference.” – Recounted by Alastair Campbell, quoting Goodall [47:04]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Stewart on US–Venezuela escalation:
  "It's a sign of a Trump government that is no longer remotely interested in international legal guidance." [02:29]

• Stewart:
  "It's as if nothing would stop them sending a drone over Britain, blowing up a bunch of people in the British streets, and claiming they're drug runners... with no evidence whatsoever." [03:30]

• Campbell on Trump’s style:
  "Are you for dealing with the war on drugs, or are you not? ...You're either with me or against me." [04:51]

• Stewart on ICE:
  "These agents are masked, completely unaccountable. No civil cases can be brought against them, basically. No criminal cases can be brought against them..." [07:19]

• Campbell’s cameo line in “The Hack”:
  "It's like when they've set out to kill you and then when they've killed you, they get a bit bored... so they try and kill the corpse." [21:16]

• Campbell on French politics:
  "Britain is not ungovernable. But you get the feeling that France actually is right now." [18:08]

• On Rupert Murdoch:
  "If you go through the last 70 years and give a score to Rupert Murdoch’s power... he’s up in a pretty high place in a global league table." – Alastair Campbell [27:23]

• On Jane Goodall:
  "You have to keep hope and everybody has to have hope in their hearts and we can all make a difference." – Jane Goodall, via Alastair Campbell [47:04]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:19: Venezuela explainer and U.S. intent
• 06:17: ICE/immigration and rule of law under Trump
• 10:25: U.S. government shutdown and polarization
• 13:01: French political crisis and Macron’s woes
• 20:26: The Hack TV show and press scandal reflections
• 25:43: Rupert Murdoch and media power
• 33:45: AI in government and ministerial workflow
• 37:59: Media coverage of Greens vs Reform
• 44:00: Czech and Syrian political developments
• 45:51: Jane Goodall’s life and message

Tone & Style

The tone is analytical yet conversational, witty, and rooted in personal experience and insider perspectives. Campbell is more sardonic and passionate, Stewart more measured and legalistic, but both balance seriousness with dry humour and a catchy back-and-forth.

Closing Thoughts

This episode spotlights the real-world and philosophical dangers posed by the Trump administration’s disregard for rule of law, the normalization of theatrical cruelty in enforcement, and the erosion of civil debate. The hosts amplify their warnings about political populism both in the US and its echoes in Britain, but they end thoughtfully—reminding listeners, via Jane Goodall’s words, to keep hope alive and believe in progress.