Loading summary
Transcript119 lines
- [00:01]
Alistair Campbell
Thanks for listening to the Rest is Politics. Sign up to the Rest is Politics plus to enjoy ad free listening, receive a weekly newsletter, join our members chat room and gain early access to live show tickets. Just go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com it was wall to wall Trump. Here's Trump arriving. Here's Trump at the Knesset. It really was the Trump show, parts of which were slightly mind blowing.
- [00:23]
Rory Stewart
Everybody is a little bit scared of him. They're dealing with somebody who isn't carefully calculating within a rules based order what to do but can be extraordinarily reckless.
- [00:31]
Alistair Campbell
The bombing has stop. Hostages are being reunited with their families. So that of itself is a huge achievement. But I think we're kidding ourselves. We think this is peace. What we've got now is the beginning of the framework, seeing the Palestinians returning to their homes now 90% rubble.
- [00:48]
Rory Stewart
There's no international structure, there's no UN structure here around this deal. There's no Palestinian Authority connected with this deal.
- [00:57]
Alistair Campbell
This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. Now more and more drivers are moving to electric as the economic and environmental arguments get much harder to ignore.
- [01:05]
Rory Stewart
And the real benefit of an electric car comes when you can charge affordably at home. Saves time, saves money. Difference between a late night queue on the motorway and stepping outside in the morning to a car that's already full.
- [01:16]
Alistair Campbell
And Fuse makes that shift very, very simple. It's already the fastest growing energy provider in the uk. They go further, installing affordable smart EV chargers and linking them directly to their.
- [01:26]
Rory Stewart
Smart EV tariff, which means the charger in your driveway is synced to the cheapest hours of the day, so every charge costs less. Think of it as having an economist in the garage, but one who finally earns their keep.
- [01:39]
Alistair Campbell
Fuse is not just supplying power, they're setting you up properly. Charger installed, tariff aligned, everything in place.
- [01:46]
Rory Stewart
Switch to Fuse today, make driving electric cheaper. Find out more@fuseenergy.com politics.
- [02:02]
Alistair Campbell
Welcome to the Rest is Politics with me, Alistair Campbell.
- [02:04]
Rory Stewart
And with me Rory Stuart.
- [02:05]
Alistair Campbell
And we're going to devote the first half of this episode to peace in our time. Donald Trump in Gaza and Egypt and then the second half. Talk about Latin America. Lots going on in Latin America. So did you manage to watch much of yesterday's proceedings?
- [02:19]
Rory Stewart
Nope, didn't get much that I've been talking to a lot of people in the region, talking to Israelis, talking to people in the Gulf, talking to Palestinians. But what was your sense of the actual proceedings? The whole.
- [02:29]
Alistair Campbell
Well, I had a really strange Day I was all over the place, but every time I was kind of had 5 minutes, 10 minutes, I would just sort of get on my phone and get onto one of the news channels and just follow it. And it was just, it was wall to wall Trump. Here's Trump arriving, here's Trump at the Knesset, here's Trump doing this. It was just, it was literally every time it was Trump doing stuff. And then occasionally you'd get to see hostages meeting their families, you'd get to see Palestinians being released, you'd get a sort of broader sense, but it really was the Trump show and parts of which were just slightly mind blowing. I mean, fair play. When this plan, this 20 point plan first came out, you and I were both very, very skeptical that it would kind of lead anywhere. It has led somewhere, it's led somewhere very significant. And that, as it were, is in phase one. And that has been the bombing has stopped, Gazans are going home and hostages are being reunited with their families. Palestinian prisoners are being released and aid is going in. So that of itself is a huge achievement. Fair play.
- [03:32]
Rory Stewart
Let's start maybe with that one. So this is of course, pretty much what the ceasefire agreement in January was supposed to be. So we're now going back 10 months, which was torpedoed in March largely by Netanyahu's government that didn't proceed to the next phases. So the basic structure, from the moment Trump came in, people will remember that Trump, as soon as he came in, announced within a few weeks, I've achieved what nobody else has ever managed to achieve. I've done what Biden can never do. I've got peace in the Middle East. And that peace was basically hostages release, east, ceasefire, Israel withdraws its troops. And since then, if you go back to July, for example, beginning of July, they were still in the middle of the negotiations that have been going on since January. And huge tribute to all these negotiators, the work that Trump has done, the work that Jared Kushner's done, the work that the Israeli delegation has done, the work that the Qataris did, putting pressure on Hamas, Egypt, Egypt, etc. I mean, you must be familiar with this from Northern Ireland. I mean, completely sick of this, because for at least 10 months, but basically an outline for a year and a half, they've seen what the beginning of a ceasefire could look like. And essentially I think what's been happening is they've been going back and forth with the Gulf countries, who are the people with the influence on Hamas saying, why won't you agree to hand over the hostages and disarm. And the United States, that has the influence on Israel saying, why won't you stop bombing Gaza? And we sort of know the reasons why they didn't want to do that, but we can also see the reasons why, in the end, it would make sense for them to do that. And they got there in January, collapsed in March. They were trying to put it together again in July, which is now, I suppose, three months ago. And now finally it's happening.
- [05:18]
Alistair Campbell
When it was collapsing, I can remember we talked about at the time, and our shared sense was that that was at the point at which we genuinely did feel. Got a lot of flak for saying so, but we felt that Netanyahu's felt his own political interests of survival were to keep it going. And I think where you do have to give credit to Trump is that, and you could say belatedly, because it is essentially the same deal, if he always felt he had the power really, to force Netanyahu to do something he was a bit uncomfortable about and then do it in a way that gave Netanyahu the sense that he was very much part of it, then he could have done it earlier. That is true. But I still think when you see all of the things that happened at the same time yesterday, it was an extraordinary thing to pull off. And then I think it's interesting, I've talked a bit to Tony Blair, who's, as you know, pretty closely involved in this, and he is. I mean, it's pretty clear this has been the kind of framework the whole way through. Essentially, what it is, what this is basically saying is you have Gaza without Israeli troops all over the place, and you have Gaza without Hamas. That's kind of the framing of it. But he did say that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have been pretty impressive in the way that they've done this. Really? Absolutely on it, and pushing the right people and pushing the right buttons. And the one thing that I think is really interesting about Trump, been trying to think about Trump, because, of course, we've got such a negative view of him. And I know you have. I've got a very negative view of him. I think the one thing that you give him is this, for good and bad, this ability just to sort of. And, boy, did you see it yesterday, just to command all the energy and all the attention. But I think what that's a reflection of, more significantly, is his instinctive understanding of the power of the United States still. And that ultimately is what pushed Netanyahu.
- [07:10]
Rory Stewart
I'D love to come back to the Blair point, which I think is fascinating, but just to develop your sense of American power. When Biden was operating within the old world, in some ways America was hiding its, I guess it's steel fist and a velvet glove. It was reluctant to do certain kinds of things. So something amazing has happened, as you say, to American power. And that's partly because of the way that Trump uses it. Obama, Biden to some extent often seemed powerless. They would say, here's a red line in Syria, the red line would be crossed. They couldn't really act. Biden was putting pressure on Netanyahu for a ceasefire. He never got there. What's different about Trump? What's different about Trump is an incredible recklessness and a total disregard for global norms. So we can see it. Here's a 50% tariff on Brazil to back my friend Bolsonaro. Here's $20 billion going to Argentina, here's airstrikes against Iran, etc, etc, etc. And what's happened there is all these players are now off balance because they're dealing with somebody who isn't carefully calculating within a rules based order what to do, but can be extraordinarily reckless. And as you're said, absolutely this has worked with Israel. And it's also given Netanyahu, for some reason, coverage with his far right. I mean, what's the reason he stopped fighting or was reluctant to stop fighting? He was scared about Ben GVIR and Smotrich, that they would collapse the coalition. Somehow Trump's participation in this has created a situation where it looks as though his coalition will hold in a way that it didn't look like it was going to hold in JanuaryMotri. And it's true with the Gulf too. The Gulf are profoundly, I guess, worried about the way that Israel's behaving, incredibly resentful of that. The attacks on Qatar, totally thrown off balance and probably pretty resentful of the way that Trump is behaving. But somehow I think everybody is a little bit scared of him. And unfortunately this is one consequence of something that we hate, which is the collapse of the rules based order in this case probably is getting results. Because if you are Mohammed bin Salman or if you're the catteries, or if you're Israel, you do look at this guy and think he has power and.
- [09:24]
Alistair Campbell
He uses that power in all sorts of different ways. And the other really bizarre sense you have in the last 24 hours, because I mean, even though I'm absolutely prepared to say this is in a very Significant part down to him and the way he operates and the sheer brute force of the way that he applies that power. At the same time, I heard somebody saying that it's like watching a split screen presidency. You have this guy who's talking about being the peacemaker and bringing peace to the world and the Middle east, and this is the 3,000 years of history. And then over in his own country, he's doing as much as he can to fuel division, to fuel hate. He talks. And everybody in this side of the screen is they're great friends of mine, and over here, they're all his enemies. You know, the slob governor in Chicago and all this sort of stuff. And that's, I think, part of. And again, I'm not sure it's that thought through. I think it's just the way he's always operated instinctively. It is a kind of form of strategic chaos.
- [10:20]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, the split screen. Ezra Klein, who we interviewed on Leading, also has this idea that it's a little bit like those optical illusions where you can see a face or a vase, but you can't see both at the same time. And I think this is the nature of this new form of power. So let's lean into Mohammed bin Salman, for example, in Saudi Arabia, right, where you can see your same split screen. On the one hand, he is the great reformer who's done extraordinary things for opening up the Saudi economy and Saudi society, and it's a great success story and people are going there. On the other hand, at the early days of his rule were the most extraordinary examples of random power. Famously, if you were turning up to have your passport renewed in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, you were not expected, like Khashoggi, to then be chopped up with chainsaws. If you were Mohammed bin Nayaf, who was the previous crown prince of Saudi Arabia, one of the most powerful wealthy men in the world, friends with US Presidents, senators, and everybody. You're not expecting when you turn up to the palace to suddenly find yourself arrested, locked up in a hotel room, stripped of most of your possessions, and find yourself under house arrest years later, along with many other close relatives of Mohammed bin Salman, some of whom still haven't been heard of to this day, most who lost their money. So we are in a new world. And it's a world that actually I want to talk about a little later in relation to a new book by a man called Dat Mpoli. We've got Saudi doing it, we've got Trump doing it in the US We've got Israel doing A version of this. I mean, what is Netanyahu doing with that strike on Qatar and what may happen, I would not be at all surprised if there is soon an Israeli strike on Iran again, that he reopens the front with Iran. They're all people who sense. And same with Putin doing his drones. They sense that power in the modern world involves being excessive, provoking, going beyond the limit, doing things that shock people and make them think this is completely unnecessary. Why did you need to do that?
- [12:15]
Alistair Campbell
Just adding to your theme. So if you watched through the whole day yesterday. So, for example, when Trump was addressing the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, and he was doing his usual thing, if he had an auto cue, there was a script, but he kept sort of, you know, going off on tangents. One of his tangents, because he had Herzog, the president two down from him on his left, and he's got Netanyahu sitting in front of him, and he just turns to the president and says, and I don't even know if this is possible in the Israeli system, but because it's possible in the American system, he obviously thinks it's an appropriate thing to say. He says, hey, I have an idea, Mr. President, why don't you give him a pardon?
- [12:56]
Rory Stewart
Give him a pardon.
- [12:58]
Alistair Campbell
Just give him a pardon of all these silly charges that he's facing, you know, corruption and the like. And of course, huge applause from all of Netanyahu's supporters, huge applause from the. In the galleries, from all the kind of people who've been put there, to Lord Trump. And then later, when he met Sisi in Egypt and the thing in Sharm el Sheikh was extraordinary. These leaders coming in from all over the world, who my Fiona said this morning, it was like they were like extras in his film. It was his film. He stood there and it was literally like a red carpet thing with peace, this massive peace 2025. And one by one, they had to come up and just stand there and shake his hand and pulling Macron and pulling Orban and doing his usual thing. But then when he sat down with Sisi for a sort of proper bilateral, brought the cameras in as usual, and he just started to. He went straight in. He didn't talk about the Middle east thing, we talked about crime. And this guy, I'm with this guy all the way, because you commit a crime in this guy's country and, you know you're going to pay the price. It's not like with our slob governor in Illinois background for that.
- [14:01]
Rory Stewart
People who aren't concentrating, right? US Ambassadors Sitting there in Egypt for the last four years complaining about human rights, complaining about European citizens tortured Italian citizens, disappeared in Egyptian prisons. Sisi is a military dictator running a profoundly authoritarian regime. The standard American line for years, hypocritical though it would have been, would have been respect for human rights and all this kind of stuff.
- [14:24]
Alistair Campbell
Basically saying, if only we had more leaders like him. I told you, I met Sisi at the time, just as he took over. And I was part of this plan to try and get him to kind of democratize and, you know, be a nice guy, kind of.
- [14:39]
Rory Stewart
Absolutely, yeah. Which you've done a certain amount of and maybe not too much of, but you've done a certain amount of this.
- [14:44]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. Was, you know, varying degrees of success. I think we'd have to put Egypt down as didn't exactly move the dial very far. But I remember when talking to about, you know, the importance of values and the importance of, you know, taking the public with you on this journey and making them feel part of this journey. He did look at me like I was kind of from another planet. I thought, this is, this is not going to work. But there's Trump basically saying, this guy is my guy. And then when he had the. Later, when he had the leaders behind him and he was just sort of wheeling them in, he. There was only one lectern and he was in charge of it. So he says, where's Victor? Where's Victor? I got Victor a 28 point lead and he's going to do even better in the next election. Where's uk? Where's uk? He goes, it was like. And it was a show. The whole day was a show. The really big worry I have out of it. This is where it's very different, I think, to the Good Friday agreement or Bosnia and any of these other peace processes or post conflict processes is that let's say we're through. They keep saying we're through. Phase one, the number of points at which the detail is so difficult and where things can go wrong. And I just worry that yesterday was such. I get the whole, you know, day of joy for the hostages, day of joy for Palestinian families being reunited, all that, I get that 100%. But because of the way Trump communicates, I think you have a sense that it's all sorted and it's not.
- [16:09]
Rory Stewart
Yeah. So two things. Quick shout out to a book that was published two days ago called the Hour of the Predator by a man called Da Mpoli about authoritarians and tech bros who really would make these connections between CC Mohammed bin Salman, Trump and Bukele in Latin America, who maybe we can talk about a little bit after the break when we get to Latin America. But your bigger point, phase two. So phase one is basically a ceasefire. Phase two is supposed to be reconstruction of Gaza. And this is something that you and I saw because this was very much my time in the Foreign Office, your time in government. Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq. And the story. Then, the great cliches that you will remember were there meant to be three things you do when you reconstruct a country. Governance, security, economic development. If you look at Gaza from that point of view. And what was the logic? Well, the logic basically is that governance is at the heart of all of it, which is a pompous way of saying if you haven't got a government, which seems, and again, this sounds like jargon, credible, effective, legitimate, ideally elected, it's very difficult to do the economic development and security. And how do you illustrate that? Well, look, if. And I found this when I was in Iraq, so I was the deputy governor coordinator of this province in southern Iraq, and I'm sending back reports every week talking about all the good stuff we're doing this week. We've fixed all these schools, we've sorted out the petrol, we've repaired a clinic, we've created these jobs, we've set up police. But actually, what's happening over my time there is an angrier and angrier local population who are demonstrating outside my door. And the fundamental problem when I say to them, look, why are you so angry we're doing all these things is our problem isn't what you're doing. The problem is you're doing them. And who are you? And this is the problem, to cut to the chase with this technocratic Palestinian administration, if it ever emerges that's meant to be running Gaza, they will have to make every day the most difficult decisions in the world. Decision number one, Hamas is fighting with tribal groups which have been armed by Israel. These are tribal, semi criminal groups that Israel have turned into militia and are given weapons to. They're fighting. Whose side do you intervene on?
- [18:26]
Alistair Campbell
What do you do and who intervenes? What are the security forces that intervene? And that's where you do this other complicated thing about international force and where that comes from.
- [18:35]
Rory Stewart
Exactly. And at the moment the story is maybe Pakistanis, Egyptians, Indonesians. But then there was a little bit from Sharma Sheikh. Well, they'll stay on the borders and there'll be a local Palestinian police force in charge of doing this. How does that really work? There is a firefight taking place in the streets between these two groups. What do you do about it? Who do you shoot? Secondly, when you start doing your economic development and somebody comes and says, of the 32 hospitals, why are you starting with that one, with that community rather than that community? Number two, why did you hire that contractor? What do you mean you've spent $2 billion on that? I know this guy. He's completely corrupt. He will have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars. It's too slow. You're not creating any jobs for this tribe, you're creating jobs for that tribe. Hamas is influencing you and you're discriminating in that direction. Then the question isn't technical. It's not just saying, this is how you build a hospital. It's politics. It's the stuff that you live and breathe every day. It's exactly the same as, why are you investing in Bolton instead of investing in Dorset?
- [19:38]
Alistair Campbell
So you just dropped in there 2 billion for this project, that project. And there's a prior question to all of this, which is, where does the money come from? And I can remember being at one of those big donor conferences on Bosnia and the sums of money, I don't remember off the top of my head, but I do remember we were talking astronomical, for the time, sums of money that countries around the world with governments present were basically. They're almost outbidding each other. No, I'll put in this and I'll put in this. Where I think we are, global economy wise, is where I think if you were to do something similar now, a global donor conference to help rebuild Gaza, where is the money going to come from? Who are going to be the big donors of America?
- [20:20]
Rory Stewart
Traditionally, two of the big donors, of course, were the US and the uk. So forget interventions. I mean, forget Afghanistan, Iraq, which was $3 trillion interventions, $3,000 billion dollars. If you even look at Pakistan, for example, in the 2015 16, the UK government was giving 400 million pounds a year just to Pakistan. The US government's probably giving $2 billion a year. USAID is now gone. There is no more American money, the British money. And I don't think people have fully taken this on. When I was secretary state for DFID, we were spending 0.7% of GDP and it was almost entirely untouched, unconditional, unrestricted, anywhere in the world. $20 billion a year. Today, the headline's gone from 0.7 to 0.3, but we're spending of that two thirds on asylum hotels in Britain. So there's 0.1 left. So effectively the budget has gone down from, let's say 20 billion to 3 billion. And of that already the money's given to the World bank and the imf, which we're committed to. Then you have humanitarian responses, which we used to give £100 million to. There's no money, literally no money. So then the whole burden falls on Qatar and Saudi to pay for this whole thing. Because again, this is not like people draw analogies. With the end of the Second World War, America and Britain defeat the Nazis. Occupation, Reconstruction. No. From the time of the Atlantic Charter onwards, America and Britain were already thinking about reconstruction of Germany. Israel has no interest in reconstruction of Gaza. I did a conference earlier this year, speak to a lot of Israelis about this. The one consistent theme is we want no responsibility for Gaza. Yes, there's been $50 billion worth of damage to Gaza, but if you expect us to contribute $0.01, you can forget it.
- [22:04]
Alistair Campbell
So the other big donors back then were Japan. Their economy's not great and they've got, providing she gets through a new Prime Minister coming in who may or may not be as committed as predecessors. Us, uk, as you say, Germany facing similar pressures to the, to the uk. So I think in the end it will, a lot of it will fall on the Gulf. But meanwhile, as you say, the needs will be now. And I think it was right yesterday, there was all this focus on the hostages. But I did keep thinking as, because there was kind of wraparound television coverage of the whole thing, far less seeing the Palestinians returning to their homes now, 90% rubble, possibly finding bodies there and so forth. So they're going back to that. They're going to expect some sort of recovery fairly quickly and they will look to the famed international community to do that. And I'm really too worried that parts of the international community, not least Trump, will think, well, we've done our bit, absolutely, and now it's over to the rest of you.
- [23:12]
Rory Stewart
So firstly, what do we know about Trump? He's not going to put any boots on the ground and he's not going to be writing big American checks, for sure. Secondly, the upside of Trump's autocratic rule breaking behavior is that he can pull off a ceasefire. The downside is this pompous word, legitimacy. There's no international structure, there's no UN structure here around this deal. There's no Palestinian Authority connected with this deal. And when he talks about what security forces.
- [23:40]
Alistair Campbell
Well, it's good that Mahmoud Abbas was eventually at that meeting yesterday, that's good.
- [23:44]
Rory Stewart
But when you look at the security force going in on the ground. The sort of questions, if you are Egypt or Indonesia or Pakistan or the Gulf, that you'll be asking is what is the legal authority under which this group operates? Right? Let's say you're a, a UAE colonel or Pakistani colonel on the ground and you're having to make this decision, what do I do? Do I shoot this person? What is your authority to shoot that person? Are you there legally under an Israeli occupation? Are you there under a UN Peacekeeping mission? Or are you, as Trump seemed to be suggesting yesterday, reporting to the U.S. cENTCOM commander, the admiral in charge of U.S. forces, with the U.S. somehow saying, we are in charge, we're coordinating, by the way, we're not providing any troops, we're not providing any money. But you, the UAE colonel or Pakistani colonel, Ghana, you're somehow following, are you going to get a Security Council resolution? Well, I mean, again, Trump goes back and forward on that. If you can't get an elected Palestinian Authority that people can look at and say these horrible decisions, because within six months, 12 months, people will be so angry. I mean, people are hoping at the moment their houses will be rebuilt. You just pointed out there's no money rebuilding. $50 billion worth of damage is like 10, 15 year project. So people will be so impatient. Where will the jobs be? Will the borders will be open? Will you be able to have a port? Will there be any economic activity? Are the trucks actually going to be able to cross the border? Are you going to be able to cross as a migrant worker into Israel in order to get revenue? Probably not. So your family will be very, very poor. You won't have a job, your house will be in rubble. So this government that you're going to have to be patient with is neither an international UN sanctioned body, nor is it a Palestinian body. It's a body that very quickly you'll begin to say, if you're an angry Palestinian, is this a sort of proxy for Israel? And then Israel will say from the other side where it's like, is this a proxy for hammers?
- [25:44]
Alistair Campbell
No. And also the other thing that will happen because we've had no real international media access, I think the stories that are going to start to emerge about the scale of devastation, the scale of destruction. So let's take at face value 67,000 deaths. You're probably going to find there's more than that now. Those stories will start to get told. And so I just felt that there was something discordant about the tone yesterday. I think that if only Trump could find it within himself to say, look, this is a great breakthrough and we've made progress and now here are the steps that are going to have to be taken. Instead of which it was all the war is over, peace in our time, the most momentous day in a century. You know, Rubio said it was the Greatest day in 50 years. And Trump said, is that all? He said, okay, 100. I mean, it's all this kind of boastfulness and this self aggrandizing stuff. And I have to say, I think that is part of what this is, why we're back to the sort of split screen stuff. It's part of what has allowed him to make it happen. The over the topness, going over the top, that sense of making somebody like Netanyahu a bit scared of him. But the over the topness in this stage, I think is setting us laying the ground for a failure to understand the kind of thing that you've just said. The processes and the organizations that now have to be put in place very, very quickly to avoid an escalation of the sort of violence that's already starting to creep in.
- [27:10]
Rory Stewart
And you've put your finger on something that maybe we haven't concentrated on enough, which is the question of Trump's attention span and patience. Because one risk with Trump, which we maybe have seen with Putin, Ukraine, where he seems to have just lost interest now and given up, is as you say, that he may have felt he's done his job.
- [27:25]
Alistair Campbell
Now he did Alaska, the Ukrainian government, his job was Alaska. Wall to wall attention. I'm doing something big, I'm doing something bold. You've got two weeks, Vladimir. Well, how many weeks ago was that? And actually we should just give a shout out to our current leading interview with the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. I mean, it is amazing how he somehow manages to stay positive and optimistic. But I don't think he's in any doubt, under any illusion that the Ukrainians are not as reliant upon the Americans as they were.
- [27:56]
Rory Stewart
If we follow up your instinct on his patience, the only way of getting to a peace is continual pressure day in, day out on Hamas, who need to be made to disarm, withdraw, and on Israel, who need to be convinced to withdraw and to give the freedom and autonomy to Gaza to allow it to reconstruct, flourish, grow. And how's that going to happen? Well, that pressure on Israel can only come from one place. It can only come from Trump and the US and what I think, I fear we don't know with Trump's. He's so unpredictable, but there's definitely a chance that he loses interest and he feels he's done the heavy lifting and he's not going to continue to apply day in, day out pressure if, for example, Israel refuses to withdraw from the lines it's currently at. Because the most optimistic scenario that I can see at the moment, I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but the most optimistic scenario I can see at the moment is go forward 6 months, 12 months. Gaza is very poor, very high unemployment rates, still in rubble. Israel still mounting strikes and military raids. Hamas still there on the ground, not fully disarmed, in a very ambiguous position with the government. No opening of ports, no opening of airports. The US Largely disengaged. No two state solution, no political sovereignty from Palestine. Basically simply Gaza in a more unstable, poorer situation than they were in before October 7th.
- [29:30]
Alistair Campbell
You'll still have the settler movement sort of focused on development in the West Bank. I thought the King of Jordan made a very interesting intervention yesterday. He basically said, this is a great day. They're all saying that, but unless there remains a commitment to a Palestinian state, then the war effectively isn't over because that's what they've all been fighting over for so long. So I think we're in a very, very unpredictable, vulnerable, quite dangerous place right now. And of course, so many people have bought into and I don't want to be a killjoy, I really don't. I mean, I get the joy, I get all that. I understand why people were so excited and so happy and, and what have you. But I think we're kidding ourselves. We think this is, this is the end of, or if this is peace, they're not going to be at peace with the, and just think of all the, think of all the resolution that's gonna have to be done. Think of all the people who are gonna feel more radicalized, probably on both sides. And so I think unless there's that understanding of the processes that have to put in place and, you know, going back to the Good Friday agreement or going back to Bosnia, the big day, Good Friday was not the, that was not the end of it. That was the framework. And what we've got now is the beginning of the framework.
- [30:47]
Rory Stewart
And Netanyahu is selling a story to the Israeli people of unconditional surrender by Hamas. This is a great victory. But the truth is Hamas has not disappeared. There are still thousands of them around. Clearly. And what we've learned here is what we should have learned in Vietnam. What we should have learned in Afghanistan, which is that unless you have a political path, unless you have economic reconstruction, you're not going to be able to destroy an ideology. The idea that you can just drop bombs, kill 67,000 people and eliminate a movement like Hamas has never worked, didn't work with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
- [31:25]
Alistair Campbell
And from the Israelis perspective, they hear you say something like that and they'll say, yeah, and don't forget part of that ideology is to wipe us out. So we still feel at risk. You know, the fundamentals are still not on the side of a long term peace, I guess is what we're saying.
- [31:39]
Rory Stewart
Everything we always believe and I think there's wisdom in it, even if it's considered liberal, wishy washy nonsense, right, is that long term peace requires in the end both Palestinians and Israelis feeling safe, prosperous and having their own legitimate governments. And nobody is offering that to the Palestinians. So it's very difficult to believe that these problems are going to go anywhere so long as the only approach is one of violent military force.
- [32:06]
Alistair Campbell
We should also say to our listeners that fellow Goal Hanger podcast Empire has done a series on the long history of Gaza all the way back 11 part series starting in 1450 BC. I'm also going to give a shout out to a friend of mine, Don McIntyre, remember Don McIntyre, Middle east correspondent and he wrote a brilliant book about Gaza a few years ago. He's now updated it. I think it's only an ebook now, but it's and it's called Gaza. But I think we need, we need because a lot of people seem to still seem to think this whole story started two years ago. It did not. It's been around. And that's why I think it might be a little bit premature to say it's now all over.
- [32:44]
Rory Stewart
Final shout outs from me. Some great European and American commentary for people who want to go deeper. On the American side you can see the spectrum covered by David Ross, Phil Gordon, more on the Democratic side, Elliot Abrahams, more on the pro Israeli Republican side, Joost Hiltermann from the International Crisis Group. And a lovely article actually on an exhibition that's been done in Paris on archaeological finds in Gaza covered by Josephine Quinn and the Lun Review of Books.
- [33:15]
Alistair Campbell
Excellent. Well, that's enough plugging. We'll go to a break.
- [33:20]
Rory Stewart
This episode is brought to you by Google. We won't fully realize the potential gains of AI unless we make it accessible and useful for everybody across the whole UK workforce. That's why Google, for example, are working closely with Trade unions AI and trade.
- [33:36]
Alistair Campbell
Unions may not sound like the most natural of partners, but the union movement has got a proud history of supporting members from across the economy and and preparing them for the ever changing world of work.
- [33:47]
Rory Stewart
That's why Google partnered, for example, with the community union in the UK on a People's first skills pilot called AI Works, and it's designed to see how AI could help workers and ultimately create productivity benefits across the whole wider economy.
- [34:02]
Alistair Campbell
Just a few hours of training could save members almost a month a year on routine tasks, time free for the work where their expertise really counts.
- [34:09]
Rory Stewart
One community member, for example, working in a supported living home, said Gemini helped streamline paperwork so she could spend more time with residents.
- [34:17]
Alistair Campbell
That's a very powerful story and it shows the positive impact AI can have on people's lives, making a real difference in the day to day.
- [34:25]
Rory Stewart
Find out how Google's AI is helping fuel the UK's growth and transformation at Goo Gleaiworks. This episode is brought to you by Revolut Business the All in one account to manage your finances now.
- [34:44]
Alistair Campbell
Politics has its share of bad deals, trade summits, late night negotiations. Often somebody walks away with the short straw.
- [34:51]
Rory Stewart
And we've seen enough botch negotiations in Westminster to know what happens when numbers don't add up. Business is no different. Nothing empties your pockets faster than hidden exchange rates.
- [35:02]
Alistair Campbell
Revolut business changes that over 25 currencies exchange at the same interbank rates that banks use during market hours within plan allowance with automatic orders and price alerts. The guesswork disappears.
- [35:14]
Rory Stewart
Breaking into new markets feels possible, not perilous. Whether you're paying salaries in Dublin or suppliers in Sydney, your Money reaches over 150 global destinations fast without the fine print.
- [35:25]
Alistair Campbell
Hangover business across borders kept simple for.
- [35:29]
Rory Stewart
All the entrepreneurs and business owners out there. If you're ready to simplify your business, finances and exchange like an expert, now's the time to open a Revolut Business account. Plus you'll unlock a £200 welcome bonus or the equivalent in your local currency if you sign up and add money to your account by the end of 2025. Just use the link in the description. Fees and terms and conditions apply. This is an ad by BetterHelp. Advice like noise is abundant, but good counsel and clear guidance can be the difference between walking in circles and finally moving forward. 10th of October is World Mental Health Day and I guess a moment to reflect on the importance of mental health and a reminder that progress often begins not with political speeches or manifestos, but often with a quiet conversation. It's also worth pausing to thank those who make those conversations possible. Therapists and the differences they make quietly every day. BetterHelp has over a decade of experience. It's got an industry leading match fulfillment rate. It's got over 30,000 accredited professionals and has served 5 million clients. Their model is built on matching, helping you find the right therapists and switch easily if the fit isn't right. Sometimes a single exchange doesn't just ease your mind, it sets a new direction. So if you're ready to try to find the right therapist for you, BetterHelp can help you start that journey. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com RestPolitics that's better. H E L P.com RestPolitics welcome back to the Restless Politics with me, Rory.
- [37:08]
Alistair Campbell
Stewart, and me, Alistair Campbell and Rory. Do you know what we were doing exactly a year ago this week?
- [37:14]
Rory Stewart
Last year was probably, I mean, not, not for you, but for me, probably the biggest audience who ever played. Do you remember us doing O2? Difficult to forget. That was quite a thing on stage almost. And it was set up like a boxing ring.
- [37:27]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. But we didn't fight.
- [37:29]
Rory Stewart
So we had sort of 14,000 people in the round peering down at us following on from the Royal Albert Hall. That was a pretty bizarre moment in the world of podcasting.
- [37:38]
Alistair Campbell
It was, it was, it was a good moment, though. I enjoyed it. And now we're going to do it all again.
- [37:42]
Rory Stewart
We are. We're off on tour again and this time we're going to do London, Bournemouth, Manchester and Glasgow. You're going to bring along the bagpipes as usual.
- [37:50]
Alistair Campbell
So it's 9th to the south, 16th of November in all of those dates. So if you want to get tickets to any of those shows, just go to therestispolitics.com dead easy.
- [37:58]
Rory Stewart
We'll be able to cover the whole world, delve into some of your lessons on leadership and much more.
- [38:03]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, I also wonder, do you think it'd be. I'm now throwing this out as a live idea. Don't you think we should show some of these impersonators, particularly of you? There's some great impersonators online of Rory Stewart.
- [38:15]
Rory Stewart
Really? I think the ones of you are much better than the ones of me.
- [38:19]
Alistair Campbell
Anyway, we're looking forward to it. Now, Latin America, we don't talk enough about Latin America because it's so interesting. There's so much interesting stuff going on there. But let's do a bit of Argentina and a Bit of Peru and maybe a bit of. I've got a really interesting thing about Chile as well.
- [38:34]
Rory Stewart
Okay, well, a little bit of framing when Trump came in. And I'm sorry, it all keeps coming back to Trump, but a loss of what he was obsessed with relates to what's happening in Latin America at the moment. And probably, I guess, three things. One of them immigration. So Venezuela. Eight million people have left Venezuela. Cuba lost, I think, 20% of its population in the last five years. And that goes to stuff we talked about.
- [39:02]
Alistair Campbell
Right.
- [39:02]
Rory Stewart
Colombia, refusing to accept migrants back. Second thing, crime. Cocaine production, consumption has doubled in the last 15 years. New markets have opened up in Latin America itself and in Asia, which has then led to this incredible explosion of criminal gangs in countries which previously were considered pretty safe in Latin America. And then the third thing is this whole question of small government against big government. Which brings us to Milei. Anyway, where do you want to go?
- [39:31]
Alistair Campbell
Let's start with Milei, because Millay is this extraordinary. He's quite a strange character. Very, very. I know you're obsessed with politicians and their hair. He's unique. The hair is unique.
- [39:42]
Rory Stewart
I think he's called the wig. That's one of his.
- [39:44]
Alistair Campbell
And he's. And of course, you mentioned chainsaws in relation to Khashoggi's murder. His chainsaw was a symbol to say, I'm going to cut the state down to size.
- [39:54]
Rory Stewart
Then taken by Musk. Which shows that the whole world isn't all about.
- [39:58]
Alistair Campbell
It's all connected.
- [39:59]
Rory Stewart
Yeah. Isn't all about Trump influencing other people. It's sometimes about other people like Orban and Milei influencing Trump.
- [40:04]
Alistair Campbell
Absolutely. And also both Kemi Badenot, the conservative leader here, and Nigel Farrar as the reform leader both said that. That Milei is something of a role model and example.
- [40:14]
Rory Stewart
So he's become a global brand. I mean, who would have thought an Argentinian president would become a global brand? Of course. But that's some time back. That's sometime back.
- [40:22]
Alistair Campbell
You heard of Maradola? I played with him, you know, and so what happened recently is that there were local elections in Buenos Aires. It's a, you know, big part of the country. And Milei did very, very badly.
- [40:35]
Rory Stewart
And having campaigned personally and hoped that.
- [40:38]
Alistair Campbell
He'D do well, said that that was. That would sort of turn it around. And that left the markets a little bit spooked. He has come out and said he's going to change his style a little bit. I think the chainsaw is going to be left in the locker. But he's now got really much bigger elections coming up on October 26th. They have midterms like the Americans do. Half of the lower house and a third of the Senate are up for elections. So these are big, big elections. And although he's chainsaw approach and sort of absolutely disruption and all that, it has brought inflation down considerably.
- [41:12]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, let's just remind people a little bit on the economy because we came back into this and again, in terms of self criticism, I certainly was a little bit skeptical about whether he would be able to pull this off. The conventional wisdom, of course, in all these cases is it's much more difficult than it seems. And Argentinian politics was difficult and it was difficult handling the fact he didn't have a majority in the lower house or the upper house. So how was this guy who called himself an anarcho capitalist, who was basically a TV pundit, going to be able to do all the stuff that he wanted to do? He would, inevitably, the story was, at least from my Argentinian friends, be blocked by the system.
- [41:52]
Alistair Campbell
In fact, he's worth the system.
- [41:53]
Rory Stewart
In fact, yeah, he came in and he did these extraordinary things. I mean, he cut government spending by something like 35%, which was removing something like 5% of GDP. He got rid of all the subsidies on public transport, heating, groceries. He fired tens of thousands of civil servants. He cut, I think pensions by 30% and inflation went down from 144% a year. So if you're running a small grocery shop in Buenos Aires, you were putting up your price maybe in the morning and the afternoon, and then again two days later to inflation now being only projected to be 25% a year instead of 144% a year. So all that seemed amazing. And he remained remarkably popular, over 50% popularity even a year. And despite the fact the poverty rate was soaring as we talked about, despite the fact many people were beginning to feel the strain until recently when things prices have got out of control, it's been difficult supporting the peso, et cetera.
- [42:56]
Alistair Campbell
I think what's happened is that he's focused understandably on inflation and he's managed to get inflation down substantially. But the economy, insofar as performing more generally is not doing terribly well. And then they had this problem with the peso, and this is where he called him really big favor from Trump and from Scott Besant. Trump has said that he's his favorite other president. Obviously he's his own favorite, but Milei is number two. Bessant has waxed lyrical about Milei and essentially said Argentina has to be saved. So they're offering them this $20 billion.
- [43:31]
Rory Stewart
Currency swap, which again is absolutely unprecedented. I mean, the only closest precedent of the US ever doing this before was Clinton doing it with Mexico. But Clinton doing it with Mexico, which again was $20 billion, was in a very different environment in the 90s. And Clinton would say, I guess in his defense, well, Mexico was so integrated with the US economy, it has this enormous border that it shares. And at that stage, Mexico wasn't tapped out on its IMF loans. Argentina, you would have thought in a normal world, if you were a MAGA base, would be the classic example of something which is not in the US national interest, doesn't really have much trade with the US doesn't share a border with the US is totally maxed out on its international credit lines. Why on EARTH Would the US taxpayer be putting $20 billion behind milei politics?
- [44:20]
Alistair Campbell
Also, I don't know the answer to this, but did Clinton get Congress backing for what he did? Because that's the other thing that's happened on this is there's no mention of whether Congress is involved in this, but whether these elections. What's happened is the markets have got a little bit scooped. His big thing was macro stability. And they got a little bit of scoop that maybe the public are not quite as supportive of this as they thought. And therefore, where is that going to go into the future? His ratings have started to drop. And then of course, the other story.
- [44:48]
Rory Stewart
That keeps coming up, although that 20 billion has massively strengthened him, strengthen his popularity, I mean, it's a real life. I mean, it doesn't, in a sense, the numbers don't completely matter. It's a bit like the way that the US deterrent used to work with NATO. It's not really the numbers. It's psychologically the sense that bessance behind you.
- [45:06]
Alistair Campbell
The other sort of story that has hit into his popularity and the sense of competence is our old friend corruption. There's a couple of big corruption things going on. In one of which, although she denies any wrongdoing, his sister Corinna, who is also his chief of staff and his closest advisor by some stretch. I mean, this strange thing about Millay is he doesn't appear to have much of a life outside the public profile. He's very, very, very close to his sister and she's got caught up in these leaked sort of conversations that she got caught up in. She was implicated in one of these big corruption scandals. So that has affected him as well. So if these elections, October 26 go badly then, given how the markets got spooked about a local election in Buenos Aires, then we shall see. We saw yesterday with Orban and you know, Trump will now feel that he can get directly involved in these elections in a way that I don't think any previous president has ever done.
- [46:08]
Rory Stewart
Which brings us, I guess, to Peru. So the big story is the story of Latin America, which has had a very, very strong influence of left wing populists. And we can give many, many examples of this, ranging from people like Borich in Chile, who's turned out actually to be pretty respectful of human rights, respectful of the Constitution, through to people who are slightly further out on the edge. So we'll talk about Pedro Castillo, but we can also talk about the Colombian president and then the far edge of left wing populism in Latin America, which is of course, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, and in this incredibly polarized world, all the people who are instinctively on the right in Latin America, who think that their states are too big, they're spending too much money, they're too much and hooked to the unions, instinctively think that any left wing movement doesn't matter, whether it's Lula or Sheinbaum. In Mexico, the basic right wing critique would be these people are taking their country towards Venezuela. And actually the truth is that many of them are, in a British context, kind of versions of Jeremy Corbyn. They are people with strong left wing identity. They often talk about Marxist Leninism, but they're not actually locking up, well, not in all cases, locking up political prisons. It's like Michael Reed would say, it's like, I guess, Jeremy Corbyn with much weaker institutions. And against that is the right wing push. So the right wing push is Milei doing this sort of radical stuff and restructuring. And Bukele, who in El Salvador has come in, arrested 80,000 people, detained them without trial, and dropped the homicide rate in El Salvador to the lowest homicide rate in Latin America. So a lot of people are looking at this and thinking, if we think about our problems, crime, immigration, security. Well, actually we're not going to exactly do what Bukele is doing, but they're beginning to be pretty tempted towards that authoritarian line.
- [48:09]
Alistair Campbell
Trump is getting ever closer to it. There was a piece I read this week by the former chief of staff to ICE under Biden. I can't remember where I read it, but it was, it was. He was basically saying that what ICE is doing now is, you know, we're almost moving beyond any previous American definition of authoritarianism. But I think what's interesting, and Bukele, you know, I mentioned Sisi Trump saying, I'm with this guy in crime. He's a big fan of Bukele.
- [48:39]
Rory Stewart
Yeah. And wants to send his people that.
- [48:41]
Alistair Campbell
What's been going on in Peru, though? I mean, you regularly and rather gleefully, I fear, sometimes talk about Keir Starmer's terrible, terrible ratings, but Dina Boluarte, who until last week was the president of Peru, she was down at 2%.
- [48:58]
Rory Stewart
Is that. And I never quite understand the negative words. Does that mean like negative 98% or am I getting confused by that?
- [49:02]
Alistair Campbell
2% means that she has 2% approval. That means that 2% out of 2 out of 100 think she's doing a good job. Right. She did. She. Well, it was hovering between 2 and 4.
- [49:13]
Rory Stewart
So just to remind people's story, because we covered it at the time and if real geeks can go back to our original podcast when this happened. But this figure, Pedro Castillo, who was a primary school teacher from a pretty simple rural background, ran on the back of something called the. The Free Peru Party, which is proper Marxist, Leninist, I suppose. More intellectual listeners from Latin America are definitely familiar with Jose Carlos Mariatogui, who was this great Marxist intellectual from the 20s and 30s. He won, but not long after he got into power, he decided to do a weird reverse coup against himself, which is. Although he was actually the president, he tried to run a coup d' etat against Congress and judiciary. They then impeached him, at which point his deputy, who was this slightly sort of anonymous figure, became, to great applause, you know, the first female president in Peru. A few questions about just how able she was, whether she wasn't actually a little bit mediocre. But anyway, she got in and she was sort of sustained by Congress, including being sustained by Fuhimori's daughter, who's traditionally from the right. There were then protests, the army was very, very violent. People were killed. So now there's a whole human rights story going on. And the Peruvian economy that did pretty well from the reforms of Fuhimori through to 2016, beginning to falter, really losing its way. The parties giving up on ideology and becoming pretty much kind of corrupt party machines. And now this boluati was the sixth.
- [50:51]
Alistair Campbell
Leader of the country since 2018, and three of them are in jail.
- [50:56]
Rory Stewart
A lot of this about lawfare, isn't it? We talk a lot about this complicated question. On the one hand, we support the independence judiciary. On the other hand, in many Latin American countries, there's a sense that they're just used against your political opponents, which almost certainly is what Trump is doing and will probably happen to Trump when he steps down.
- [51:11]
Alistair Campbell
And also it's strange how you have high level corruption and what might be termed low level corruption. There's probably a bit of both going on here. But the media and the opposition became obsessed with her seeming fondness for Rolex watches. And her house actually at one point got raided so they could establish just how many Rolex watches she had. Then there was another story that she went off to have a nose job while she was meant to be doing some sort.
- [51:41]
Rory Stewart
It's a little awkward because if you're coming from the Marxist Leninist less I mean originally sort of Vladimir Ciaron who again was put in jail so couldn't run, which is why Castillo came in and she was coming in on that ticket to be collecting Rolex watches a little, etc.
- [51:53]
Alistair Campbell
But you mentioned crime earlier. Crime and the murder rates and contract killings have just been going off the charts.
- [52:00]
Rory Stewart
So what's next?
- [52:01]
Alistair Campbell
I don't know what's next. What's happened now is that under their constitution she didn't have a vice president. Normally the vice president would take over. So it's gone to the president of the Congress, a guy called Perry. He's just survived rape and sexual assault investigations. So it's a mess. It's a total mess there.
- [52:21]
Rory Stewart
I guess the question is what's next for countries like Peru? Are they going to. And I think this will be an opportunity for mini Bukeles. So. So we're seeing sort of versions of this. Paraguay, Costa Rica, Panama. I mean, of course the pro Trump right wing Canada and Panama is feeling pretty uncomfortable because Trump's still talking about taking over the Panama Canal, confusing everybody. But is there going to be room when the election comes for somebody trying to run on a Milei or Bekele ticket? Because the situation in some of these countries, I mean we talked in January of last year about this amazing moment where Ecuador, which had been one of the most peaceful countries in Latin America, suddenly found criminal gangs. Take over a TV station live on air. Peru. We got a producer produced this extraordinary figure that in 2024, 50% of the homicides in Peru were contract killings. The big story at the moment has been an attack on a local popular Latin American band that didn't pay extortion.
- [53:22]
Alistair Campbell
It turned out to be the final trigger. You know, sometimes it takes a tipping point that feels a bit odd. But there was this popular ban that got caught up in, in a shooting. And I Think it was just the point at which the politicians thought, you know, enough is enough. And the vote, I think there are. It was 124. Zero. She got literally zero votes. This was the eighth impeachment attempt and she got zero votes.
- [53:45]
Rory Stewart
And she was taken out for. Under a clause for mental incapacity.
- [53:48]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, moral incapacity. No, no, it was worse than that. Permanent moral incapacity. In other words, there is no coming back from this lizard. Before we go, just when I mentioned Chile, you know how I'm a big fan of compulsory voting? Well, they've got an election. Chile's got a presidential election on November 16. Also Senate and 155 seats in the lower house. Now, I didn't know this, really. They've had compulsory voting. They had compulsory voting, but voluntary registration. Okay. So if you registered, you had to vote, but you didn't have to register. Then in 2012 they went for automatic registration. So everybody got registered and voluntary voting. And they've now decided to put the two together. They've got automatic registration and compulsory voting. Round of applause for Chile.
- [54:39]
Rory Stewart
I say round of applause for Chile and fingers crossed because, you know, obviously you and I are big believers in compulsory voting. So I think a lot of people in Chile are pretty skeptical about Boric, this young student leader.
- [54:50]
Alistair Campbell
He's only allowed this one term though, right? He can't stand it.
- [54:53]
Rory Stewart
Doesn't exactly. But I do want to do a little shout out from people who thought he was going to go full Venezuela and Nicaragua. It's not been like that. He has been actually more idealistic, more respectful towards human rights than many people anticipated and is, I would argue, a sort of better version of the left wing populist leader in Latin America.
- [55:12]
Alistair Campbell
Well, in which case the Communist Party candidate might come through. Well, listen, we've got question time. Tomorrow we're going to do something a bit different. We're going to be relentlessly positive on the back of a complaint that was delivered to me by hand by one of our listeners who said, we promised such an episode almost three years ago.
- [55:30]
Rory Stewart
Let's try it.
- [55:31]
Alistair Campbell
Take care.
- [55:31]
Rory Stewart
Bye bye. For all the entrepreneurs and business owners out there. If you're ready to simplify your business finances and exchange like an expert, now's the time to open a Revolut business account. Plus you'll unlock a 200 pound welcome bonus or the equivalent in your local currency if you sign up and add money to your account by the end of 2025. Just use the link in the description. Fees and terms and conditions apply. Hi everybody, it's Dominic Sambrook here from.
- [56:05]
Alistair Campbell
The Rest Is History podcast and I have a special message to listeners of the Rest is Politics. I know on the Rest is Politics you hear all the time about Nigel Farage, about the threat of reform, the specter of Brexit, the anti immigration stuff that's so common. Do you want to know where all of that comes from? Because we on the Rest Is History have done an episode exploring just this. It's an episode looking at Enoch Powell, perhaps the most controversial character in modern British history, and his Rivers of Blood speech. And we will be digging into his effect on the Tory party, his role as a kind of intellectual godfather for reform, his importance in the wider story of race and immigration in Britain. So tune in to the Rest is History wherever you get your podcasts and look for episode Enoch Powell, Rivers of Blood. Is this the man who broke British politics forever.