The Rest Is Politics, Episode 458: Can Trump’s Peace Deal Actually Work?

Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: October 14, 2025

Brief Overview

Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart devote the latest episode to dissecting Donald Trump’s recent “peace deal” in the Middle East, particularly centering on Gaza and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict. The hosts alternate between cautious praise, deep skepticism, and comparative analysis, examining the mechanics, legitimacy, and implications of Trump’s intervention. They also explore broader trends of autocratic leadership and instability by segueing into Latin America, spotlighting Javier Milei and the region’s populist wave.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Peace Deal for Gaza: Real Progress or “Peace Show”?

• “Wall to wall Trump”: The media coverage and negotiation were dominated by Trump’s high-profile visits, pronouncements, and public relations moves. (02:28)

  • “It really was the Trump show, parts of which were just slightly mind blowing.” — Campbell (02:28)

• The Achievements of Phase One:

  • Ceasefire achieved, bombing paused, hostages (on both sides) reunited with families, prisoners released, and some aid entering Gaza.
  • “The bombing has stopped, Gazans are going home and hostages are being reunited with their families... a huge achievement.” — Campbell (03:18)
  • “Essentially, what it is, what this is basically saying is you have Gaza without Israeli troops all over the place, and you have Gaza without Hamas.” — Campbell (05:50)

• Historical Context and Skepticism

  • The deal’s framework closely mirrors previous failed attempts, notably a January 2025 ceasefire torpedoed by Israeli internal politics.
  • Credit is given to the negotiators—Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, the Qataris, Egyptians, and others.
  • Observations about Netanyahu’s political calculus: He’s seen as self-interested, prolonging conflict for his own survival—until real pressure came from Trump.

• Trump’s Diplomatic Style: Recklessness as Power

  • Stewart repeatedly returns to Trump’s unpredictability:
    • “Everybody is a little bit scared of him. They're dealing with somebody who isn't carefully calculating within a rules based order… but can be extraordinarily reckless.” — Stewart (00:22 and repeated at 07:10)
  • Contrast with prior U.S. presidents (Biden, Obama): While they outlined red lines, Trump enforces his power by ignoring norms (tariffs, airstrikes, abrupt deals).
    • “What's different about Trump is an incredible recklessness and a total disregard for global norms.” — Stewart (07:10)
  • Trump offers cover to Netanyahu’s far-right coalition and unsettles both allies and adversaries with brute unpredictability.

• Split-Screen Presidency

  • Campbell highlights Trump’s dichotomy: Peacemaker abroad, divider at home.
    • “It’s like watching a split screen presidency… talking about peace in the Middle East, while fueling division at home.” — Campbell (09:24)
  • Stewart compares this duality to optical illusions: “You can see a face or a vase, but you can’t see both at the same time.” (10:19)

Memorable Moments from the Show

• Trump’s Tangents:

  • At the Knesset, Trump suggests:
    • “Hey, I have an idea, Mr. President, why don't you give him [Netanyahu] a pardon?”
    • Roaring applause from Netanyahu’s supporters highlights Trump’s disregard for diplomatic conventions. (12:14)

• The Trump "Peace 2025" Pageantry:

  • Summit in Sharm El Sheikh depicted as a staged red-carpet event for Trump.
  • “These leaders coming in from all over the world ... extras in his film. It was his film.” — Campbell (12:57)

2. The Challenge of Phase Two: Reconstruction and Governance

• Gaza in Rubble, International Responsibilities Unclear

  • 90% of homes destroyed; the necessity of credible governance, massive funding, and security arrangements.
  • Revisiting post-conflict analogies—Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq—underscores the complexity of reconstruction. (16:09–18:34)
  • Stewart: “If you haven’t got a government which seems credible, effective, legitimate—ideally elected—it’s very difficult to do the economic development and security.” (16:57)

• Who Will Pay, Who Will Govern?

  • U.S. and UK unlikely to fund or lead reconstruction as in earlier eras.
    • “There’s no more American money, the British money... there's no money, literally no money. So then the whole burden falls on Qatar and Saudi.” — Stewart (20:20)
  • No clear international structure; no real Palestinian Authority buy-in; legitimacy in question.
    • “There's no international structure, there's no UN structure here around this deal. There's no Palestinian Authority connected with this deal.” — Stewart (23:11, and earlier)

• Risks of Political and Security Vacuum

  • No clear security force, no sustainable authority or accountability for difficult decisions in Gaza.
    • “What security forces...are you there legally under an Israeli occupation? Under a UN Peacekeeping mission? Or reporting to U.S. CENTCOM?” — Stewart (23:43)

• Campbell’s Warnings Amid Euphoria

  • Media and politicians risk over-celebrating; the framework does not equate to peace or solve root grievances.
    • “I think that if only Trump could find it within himself to say, look, this is a great breakthrough and we’ve made progress and now here are the steps that are going to have to be taken... Instead, it was all ‘the war is over, peace in our time, the most momentous day in a century.’” — Campbell (25:44)

• Long-term Prospects: A Cautious, Sober Outlook

  • Without sustained pressure, attention, and legitimacy, Gaza risks ending up even poorer and more unstable.
    • “The only way of getting to a peace is continual pressure day in, day out... I fear... there's definitely a chance that [Trump] loses interest and feels he’s done the heavy lifting.” — Stewart (27:56)

• Fundamental Obstacles Remain

  • Absence of a two-state solution or any real political sovereignty for Palestinians; risk of return to instability and violence.
    • “The most optimistic scenario I can see: Gaza is very poor, very high unemployment, still in rubble. Israel still mounting strikes, Hamas still there, US disengaged, no two-state solution.” — Stewart (28:40)
    • “I think we’re kidding ourselves we think this is... peace. What we’ve got now is the beginning of the framework.” — Campbell (30:13)

3. Comparative Analysis: Authoritarian Playbooks (Trump, MBS, Bukele, Sisi, Milei)

• Pattern of “Strategic Chaos” and Authoritarian Strength

  • Stewart connects Trump’s method to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Egypt’s Sisi, and even Latin American strongmen: excess, unpredictability, power through shock.
    • “They sense that power in the modern world involves being excessive, provoking, going beyond the limit, doing things that shock people.” — Stewart (11:40)
  • Reference to new scholarship: The Hour of the Predator by Da Mpoli, analyzing tech, autocracy, and new global power structures. (16:09)

• Latin America as a Test Bed for Populist-Authoritarian Experiments

  • Segue into region-wide instability, exploring the political rise (and troubles) of Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Bukele, and the crisis in Peru.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rory Stewart:
  “Everybody is a little bit scared of him. They're dealing with somebody who isn’t carefully calculating within a rules based order… but can be extraordinarily reckless.” (00:22, 07:10)

• Alastair Campbell:
  “It’s like watching a split-screen presidency. You have this guy bringing peace… and over in his own country, fueling division, fueling hate.” (09:24)

• Alastair Campbell on Trump’s Power:
  “The one thing that you give him is this—for good and bad—this ability just to sort of... command all the energy and all the attention.” (06:52)

• Rory Stewart on Postwar Parallels:
  “If you haven’t got a government which seems—credible, effective, legitimate—it’s very difficult to do the economic development and security.” (16:57)

• Alastair Campbell on the Day’s Spectacle:
  “It was a show. The whole day was a show... it was his film.” (13:43)

• Rory Stewart on Future Failure:
  “No two-state solution, no political sovereignty for Palestine. Basically, simply Gaza in a more unstable, poorer situation than before October 7th.” (28:40)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Highlight | |------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:28 | Trump’s overwhelming presence during negotiations and in the media | | 03:18 | Details of achievements so far: ceasefire, hostages released, prisoners exchanged | | 07:10 | Trump’s reckless, norm-breaking style; comparison to Biden, Obama | | 09:24 | The “split-screen” presidency: Trump abroad vs. Trump at home | | 12:14 | Trump’s pardon tangent in the Knesset, audience reactions | | 16:09–18:09| Transition to postwar reconstruction challenges; historical parallels | | 20:20 | No international will or cash for reconstruction; can Qatar/Saudi foot the bill? | | 23:11 | Absence of UN/Palestinian Authority; legitimacy and security force conundrums | | 25:44 | Campbell’s warning on premature self-congratulation | | 27:56 | Stewart worries about Trump losing interest, as with Ukraine | | 28:40 | Most likely pessimistic scenario for Gaza six to twelve months out | | 30:13 | The “beginning of the framework”: Campbell’s historical perspective | | 32:05 | Segment recommendations: other podcast/artistic resources on Gaza/Palestine history | | 38:34–55:12| Latin America: Milei’s politics, US-Argentina ties, populist pivots, crisis in Peru, Chile’s voting reform |

Latin America Discussion (Second Half)

Framing:

• Trump’s influence and style reverberate in Latin America, shaping local politics, economic aid, and models of populist leadership.
• Noted increase in immigration (Venezuela, Cuba), crime (cocaine trade, criminal gangs), and small-vs-big government clashes.

Argentina’s Milei:

• Called “the wig,” campaigned with a chainsaw to symbolize radical state reduction, has cut government spending deeply, slashed subsidies, taken inflation from 144% to a projected 25%, but overall economic performance is mixed.
• Reliance on a $20 billion U.S. currency swap (Trump administration), a first since Clinton’s Mexico bailout, raises questions on U.S. motives and Congress’s involvement.

“Trump has said that [Milei is] his favorite other president. Obviously, he’s his own favorite, but Milei is number two.” — Campbell (42:56)

Corruption and Public Perception:

• Corruption scandals involving Milei's sister prompt concern about Milei’s longer-term viability.
• Midterms (October 26) will test his support following poor local electoral showing.

Peru’s Chaos:

• President Dina Boluarte ousted after approval dropped to 2%; plagued by corruption, crime, and leadership vacuum; replaced by a Congressional leader with his own scandals.

Bukele and Authoritarian Temptation:

• Stewart flags the rise of El Salvador’s Bukele (mass detentions, crime crackdown) as a new template for authoritarian efficiency.

Chile’s Democratic Experiment:

• Applause for Chile’s combined automatic registration and compulsory voting: a model for civic participation. Debate about the left’s track record (Boric) in the region.

Overall Tone & Conclusions

The hosts balance skepticism and nuance, mixing wry wit and personal experience with a deep grasp of political history. Throughout, they invoke the need for humility, caution, and the recognition that headline “peace” moments are only frameworks, not solutions.

Campbell and Stewart highlight the risk that both the Middle East deal and Latin America’s anti-institutional populism fall short without legitimate, sustainable structures and funding. They underscore the vital difference between spectacle and substance—a recurring theme as the world navigates new forms of power that blend charisma, chaos, and brute force.

Further Reading & Resources Mentioned

• The Hour of the Predator by Da Mpoli (Autocrats, tech, new power)
• Podcast: "Empire" (History of Gaza)
• Don McIntyre’s “Gaza”
• Articles by David Ross, Phil Gordon, Elliot Abrahams, Joost Hiltermann, Josephine Quinn

Summary Table

| Topic | Main Insights | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Trump’s Gaza Deal | Ceasefire and prisoner exchanges achieved, but lacks legitimacy and implementation structure | | Trump’s Style | Norm-busting, media-dominant, and unpredictable; contrast with prior U.S. approach | | Risks for Gaza | No clear reconstruction plan, funding crisis, leadership vacuum, risk of relapse into instability | | Authoritarianism & Chaos | Rise of leaders using spectacle and excess as a form of power (Trump, MBS, Sisi, Bukele, Milei, etc.) | | Latin America | Populism, economic instability, crime, and democratic reforms; Milei’s experiments, Peru's leadership turmoil |

This summary offers a comprehensive foundation for listeners and non-listeners to grasp the core themes, detailed analysis, and captivating moments from episode 458 of The Rest Is Politics.