The Rest Is Politics – Episode 460

Inside Trump’s Gaza-Ukraine Playbook: Who Profits from Peace? Released: October 21, 2025 | Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dissect Donald Trump's approach to international crises, focusing on his influence in Gaza and Ukraine. They scrutinize the motivations and consequences behind Trump’s interventions, debating who stands to gain from his brand of "peace." The episode moves through the collapse of global climate cooperation, volatile situations in Gaza and Ukraine, political developments in Wales, and the worsening crisis of mental health in the UK. Throughout, Campbell and Stewart provide sharp insider analysis, measured disagreements, and touch on how power, money, and brute force are reshaping geopolitics and domestic affairs under Trump’s shadow.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Disruption of Global Climate Agreements

• Maritime Emissions Deal Scuttled

  • 10 years of negotiation at the International Maritime Organization for cleaner shipping fuels was torpedoed by Trump (03:45–05:06).
  • Trump called the deal a “green scam”—the U.S. withdrawal led to Saudi and Russian refusal, pressuring small states with threats of new tariffs.
  • Campbell: “It's part of threat was actually to impose fresh tariffs on anybody who backed this thing. And this includes countries...facing existential threat from the sea...” (07:02)
  • Stewart: “What really swung it...was not the US, Saudi and Russia...but the fact that he put pressure on small island states and we suddenly had Caribbean states saying, I'm really sorry, but the US is a 400 pound gorilla and we can't afford to defy them on this.” (06:10)

• Rule of Law Undermined

  • Courts found Trump's tariffs illegal—presidential powers over trade are being abused (08:15).

2. Trump's Approaches to Ukraine and Gaza: Power, Chaos & Personal Diplomacy

• Ukraine: Consistency or Chaos?

  • Trump’s stance: increasingly aligned with Russia despite past contradictions, e.g., earlier claiming a win for Ukraine was possible (08:50–12:27).
  • Trump's diplomatic reversals are linked to personal conversations with Putin; Zelensky’s White House meetings see “maps thrown around” and Trump telling him to “do the fucking deal and get on with it.” (10:41)
  • Quote: “Putin yet again, has played Trump like a violin.” – Alastair Campbell (11:00)

• Gaza: “Success” by Brutality

  • Stewart unpacks the Trump-Netanyahu strategy: no real peace, simply overwhelming Israel victory as “unconditional surrender” (12:27–14:10).
  • Trump’s inner circle (J.D. Vance, Kushner, Witkoff) are now running US/Israeli coordination on humanitarian aid and postwar planning.

• Brutal Devastation on the Ground

  • UN's Tom Fletcher describes Gaza as “like Dresden, like Stalingrad...like the aftermath of a kind of nuclear bomb...devastation on a scale we cannot see.” (13:16–13:58)

  • Aid is flowing, but foundational issues for peace and justice are ignored.

  • Quote: “Nothing will prepare you for what it actually looks like when you get there. So I do hope Vance goes to Gaza and takes a proper look.” – Alastair Campbell (17:33)

3. Rebuilding, Power, and the New Rules of Global Diplomacy

• Profit Motives & Colonialism

  • Discussing Blair and Powell’s involvement, Stewart notes, “Trump has essentially created a court. And it's about money, it's about power, it's about influence, it's about thinking about rebuilding Gaza in terms of property deals...” (23:16)
  • Legal order is absent; everything is transactional and based on brute force.

• Changing Role of Peacemakers

  • Even normally principled mediators (Blair, Powell) must adapt to the “Trump court,” playing by his rules to have influence (24:38).

4. Power Politics’ Ripple Effects: Wales and the Rise of Reform

• Wales By-Election: Labour Collapse, Reform Ascendant

  • The by-election could upend Welsh politics—Labour’s majority depends on one Lib Dem (33:38–38:45).
  • Campbell: “Labour currently can only get a budget through with the help of a lone Liberal Democrat...If they lose theirs to Reform, they will lose the capacity automatically to get a budget through...” (36:16)
  • Reform’s candidate distances himself from former UKIP/Reform leader Nathan Gill, now jailed for taking Russian bribes.
  • Voters’ anger, a toxic political climate, and the sense of old political norms collapsing are clear.

• Far-Right Normalization

  • Stewart’s concern: “Just how thin the support for traditional democratic values are and how easily figures like even Tommy Robinson become normalized...these are people with Oxford degrees working for investment banks beginning to say this to me now about Tommy Robinson in Britain.” (41:14)

5. Mental Health in Crisis: A Bleak Report

• Backsliding on Stigma and Services

  • Mind’s annual report shows rising stigma and falling support for community mental health services (42:20–52:38).
  • 70% → 63% would be comfortable with a mental health service opening nearby; stigma is increasing in workplaces and communities.
  • Campbell: “I think we've made massive progress on breaking down the stigma, but we've gone backwards on services. And right now...I feel we're going backwards on both.” (45:16)
  • Mental health makes up 20% of disease burden but gets <10% NHS funding; spending has fallen under both Conservative and Labour governments.

• Root Causes

  • Poverty is the biggest driver of poor mental health, with COVID, social pressure, and funding cuts all compounding the crisis.

• Impact on Politics

  • The suicide of Hefin David, triggering the Welsh by-election, highlights both personal tragedies and the broader pressures on those in public life (42:20–46:26).

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Trump’s Worldview:

  • “Trump basically of a view that if he disagrees with those facts...they just basically, they go with his view as opposed to what a factual basis might be. And that is unbelievably dangerous.” – Alastair Campbell (07:02)

• “Putin yet again, has played Trump like a violin.” – Alastair Campbell (11:00)

• “There is now this big US operation...these are American soldiers...the US military under CENTCOM has now deployed troops forward...coordinating the aid moving in.” – Rory Stewart (14:10)

• “Tom said they were averaging about a million meals a day...kids who were 50% malnourished, they'd managed to get it down to about 30%.” – Alastair Campbell (14:49)

• On Peacebuilding vs. "Raw Power":

  • “Peace was about refugee return...minorities...justice...the setting up of the courts of the Hague...liberal democratic principles, international legal principles baked into every single stage. In Gaza...Kushner and Witkoff are acting like colonial governors...” – Rory Stewart (15:07)

• “Trump has essentially created a court. And it's about money, it's about power, it's about influence, it's about thinking about rebuilding Gaza in terms of property deals...” – Rory Stewart (23:16)

• On Mental Health:

  • “My problem on mental health is I think we've made massive progress on breaking down the stigma, but we've gone backwards on services. And...I feel we're going backwards on both.” – Alastair Campbell (45:16)

• “Mental health makes up 20% of the burden of disease and yet receives less than 10% of NHS spending.” – Alastair Campbell (47:03)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Trump kills global shipping emissions deal: 03:45–08:15
• Ukraine “peace” and Trump’s chaos: 08:50–12:27
• Gaza “brutal peace” and humanitarian crisis: 12:27–17:33
• New world of power, Blair/Powell adapting: 23:16–25:35
• Rise of Reform in Wales, collapse of Labour: 33:38–38:45
• Normalization of far-right figures (Tommy Robinson): 41:14–42:20
• Mental health crisis & Mind’s report: 42:20–52:38

Memorable, Characteristic Exchanges

• Bickering over Betting (Wales):

  • Stewart: “I believe in worthless bets. How much can I put on the Tories and how much will I make back?”
  • Campbell: “This is what they call a Rory Stewart, Kamala Harris bet.” (34:21)

• On Blair & Powell Mediation:

  • Stewart: “The lesser evil in this case is this American system which has no legal status. I mean, what is the legal status? Nobody...even in the senior members of the UN can tell me what the legal status of anyone operating inside Gaza is at the moment.” (23:16)

Episode Tone and Takeaways

The discussion is rich, critical, and at times ruefully humorous—true to the Rest Is Politics’ hallmark “disagree agreeably” style. The hosts voice concern over the erosion of norms, the reshaping of diplomacy into transactional power games, and the normalization of extremes, both at home and abroad. The episode closes on a reflective note regarding mental health and with a promise to bring more optimistic stories in the future, previewing Stewart’s new book on Cumbria.

For listeners who want a deep, skeptical, and often moving look at the current state of politics—where raw power, profit, and personal whim increasingly define outcomes—this episode is essential.