The Rest Is Politics – Episode 464

Labour’s Tax Timebomb, Climate Backsliding, and Sudan’s Forgotten War
Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

In this incisive episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dissect three urgent and interlinked topics shaping British and global politics:

• The Labour government’s looming decision to potentially break tax-related manifesto commitments amid dire economic realities.
• The worrying decline in global and UK commitment to decisive climate action, despite worsening impacts.
• The catastrophic and underreported civil war in Sudan, exploring the web of external actors and the dwindling will of Western powers to intervene meaningfully.

The episode’s tone oscillates between forensic political analysis, passionate stakeholder advocacy, and candid frustration at media and public short-termism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Labour’s Looming Tax Dilemma

[02:55–08:49]

• Rachel Reeves’ Pre-Budget Speech:
  • Reeves has signaled possible tax hikes, preparing the public for “breaking a manifesto commitment.” However, ambiguity remains about which taxes would rise.
  • Rory Stewart: Highlights that the big, broad-based taxes (VAT, National Insurance, corporation and income tax)—those most stable, fair, and effective—are ones Labour pledged not to raise. The contradiction is unsustainable:
    • “What’s the point of making the speech if you’re not answering the fundamental question?” [04:46]
  • Alastair Campbell: Defines “pitch rolling” (preparing the public/political context for difficult decisions) and frames Reeves’ speech as managing expectation:
    • “She was essentially giving the framing for the budget...” [05:25]
• Political Risks:
  • Both agree the real issue is public trust, and that breaking a manifesto promise (if Labour goes ahead) will dog them to the next election, necessitating a compelling justification.
  • Stewart: Points out Keir Starmer’s poor popularity and the harsh electoral choice:
    • “His only hope...is to get the economy growing. People will forgive a broken manifesto commitment if the government’s performing well.” [07:38]

2. Political Paralysis on Climate Policy

[08:56–24:44]

• Backsliding on Commitments:
  • Stewart: Critiques Labour (and specifically Ed Miliband) for rigid targets on net zero/electric vehicles, noting public skepticism: only 18% believe net zero-by-2030 goals are realistic. [08:56]
  • Campbell: Shares data from the Lancet Countdown, painting a dire picture:
    • 23% increase in heat-related deaths since the 1990s
    • 2.5 million deaths annually from fossil fuel burning air pollution
    • “15 out of 87 major emitting countries spent more on fossil fuel subsidies than on their health budgets.” [10:51]
• The Global Picture:
  • Despite hype over COP summits, the global energy mix remains unchanged: “20 years ago, 80% of world energy was from fossil fuels; still about 80% today.” [12:39]
  • Stewart: “We’re going to miss the 1.5°C target by a country mile...probably miss 2°C too.” [13:01]
  • Both agree adaptation is now as vital as mitigation, with climate impacts already unavoidable.
• Public Attitudes & Argument Framing:
  • Rising climate skepticism in the UK, but reform party voters still support taxing polluting firms.
    • Stewart: “A really good leader could shift this debate, but the argument is moving from idealism to questions about energy security, cost of living, and jobs.” [15:49]
• The Business Case & Policy Hesitation:
  • Campbell: Cites analysis showing wind investment generated a £100bn benefit for UK consumers [16:36], countered by Stewart’s skepticism about true costs “because of the grid, intermittency, and transmission.”
  • Business uncertainty prevails as investors sense government may be rowing back from commitments and possibly reshuffling Ed Miliband.
    • “Nobody believes that Ed Miliband is going to hold to these targets.” [21:04]
  • Political Consequences:
    • Labour risks ceding green leadership to the Greens (Zack Polanski).
    • Right-wing narrative focuses on lowering electricity prices, not net zero.
  • On international aid failings: UK’s initial £2.5m contribution to Jamaica after climate-induced disaster is “unbelievable” when contrasted with footballer Mbappé’s £20m personal donation. [24:49]

3. The Media, Social Media, and Populist Narrative Warfare

[26:34–35:38]

• Both decry the media’s declining attention to overseas disasters and the compounding effect of social media-driven disinformation and fear-mongering.
  • Campbell: Details Elon Musk’s viral, xenophobic commentary and the lack of robust pushback from mainstream politicians:
    • “Where are the mainstream politicians calling out Musk?” [29:05]
  • Social media responding to violent incidents with instant conspiracies, “speaking to existing biases,” even when real crime rates are down. [34:13]
• The “virtualisation” of politics is feeding populism and making it harder to rebut lies with facts.
  • Memorable quote, Stewart: “The whole of politics has become virtual…these kind of facts are entirely irrelevant.” [34:55]

4. Sudan: A Forgotten Catastrophe

[37:01–52:00]

• The Human Cost:
  • 150,000 killed, 2 million at risk of or in famine, 30 million needing aid, 90% of children out of school.
    • “This is pretty much the worst thing that’s happening anywhere in the world right now.” [37:36]
• Complex Conflict Dynamics:
  • Intricate explanation of two warring factions:
    • RSF (Rapid Support Forces, led by Hermeti, formerly Janjaweed militia) vs SAF (Sudan Armed Forces, led by Burhan).
  • External sponsors:
    • SAF: backed by Egypt, Turkey, Saudis
    • RSF: backed by UAE (denied, but proven via weapons and satellite imagery) [41:47]
  • Rising weapon sophistication, with modern drones, precision artillery, etc., mostly supplied via Gulf states.
• The UAE as a Middle Power:
  • Now Africa’s largest growth investor, overtaking China.
  • Resource scramble (oil, gold, food security), port acquisitions, anti-Islamist alignments all play into UAE’s interests. [43:20]
  • The illicit gold trade and mercenary use highlight a “return to Empire” rather than respect for sovereignty.
    • Rory Stewart: “Many of these states no longer have real sovereignty—being divided in two, like Sudan, pillaged, and manipulated by external actors. ... It feels much more like the age of empire.” [45:48]
• Collapse of Western Influence:
  • U.S. and UK have little leverage left: “America has basically lost its influence entirely over places like Sudan.” [48:06]
• Hope and Realpolitik:
  • Stewart floats (dubiously) the idea that a U.S. “deal” could deliver ceasefire/humanitarian corridors—if focused on getting UAE to stop propping up RSF. [51:20]
  • Campbell: “The UK could do a bit of that as well, but we’ve lost a lot of leverage, haven’t we?” [51:27]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“His only hope of actually winning the next election is to get the economy growing. People will forgive a broken manifesto commitment if the government’s performing well.”
— Rory Stewart, [07:38]

“Twenty years ago, 80% of world energy was from fossil fuels; still about 80% today…we’re missing the 1.5°C target by a country mile.”
— Rory Stewart, [12:39]

“Fifteen out of 87 countries responsible for 93% of global CO₂ emissions spent more on net fossil fuel subsidies than their national health budgets.”
— Alastair Campbell, [11:53]

“The whole of politics has become virtual…these kind of facts are entirely irrelevant.”
— Rory Stewart, [34:55]

“Back in the days when you were in power, £2.5 million to Jamaica, which has just seen this catastrophe…there would have been an absolute outcry.”
— Alastair Campbell, [27:06]

“This is pretty much the worst thing that’s happening anywhere in the world right now [in Sudan].”
— Alastair Campbell, [37:36]

“Many of these states no longer have real sovereignty… It feels much more like the age of empire.”
— Rory Stewart, [45:48]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Labour & Tax Promises: [02:55–08:49]
• Climate Crisis & COP Politics: [08:56–24:44]
• Media, Social Media & Populism: [26:34–35:38]
• Sudan’s Crisis & Global Implications: [37:01–52:00]

Tone & Further Notes

The hosts’ interplay maintains “disagreeing agreeably,” balancing mutual respect with challenging each other's takes. The episode is brisk, urgent, and unvarnished in its assessment of political leadership—and the implications of national and international short-termism.

For listeners, it’s both a masterclass in connecting domestic politics to the global context and a call to reject indifference—to tax honesty, to climate urgency, and to humanitarian crises far from home.

For more episodes and bonus content, visit therestispolitics.com.