The Rest Is Politics – Episode 469: Is Starmer Out of Moves? Asylum Gamble, Tax Chaos, and Open Infighting

Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

This episode sees Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dissecting one of the most tumultuous periods in recent British politics. Hot off a nationwide live tour, the duo breaks down sagging Labour support, chaos over fiscal policy, the party's contentious new asylum reforms, and the spectre of Nigel Farage’s rise. They also grapple with Labour’s leadership questions, public mood, the political response to immigration, and the dangers of populism both in the UK and the US.

The tone is frank, often frustrated, and peppered with moments of humor and urgency, as both hosts question whether either major UK party has a viable plan and warn of the global drift toward authoritarian populism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Labour’s Waning Support and Leadership Crisis

• Audience Reaction on the Tour

  • During their live tour, the hosts engaged with over 10,000 people and used live polling. In Manchester, only about a dozen in a crowd of 2,600 wanted Keir Starmer to lead Labour into the next election, with Andy Burnham receiving overwhelming support locally. (05:29–06:34)
  • In audience polls pitting Starmer against Nigel Farage, results were “almost 52-48,” leaving Campbell unsettled:
    • “It was a very, very close call.” (06:34)
    • “I hated to see that...52-48, which of course...triggers you and makes you want a second referendum.” (07:06, Campbell)

• Labour's Struggles & Tax Policy Confusion

  • Labour is reeling from bad polling and news coverage, as well as confusion around Rachel Reeves’ shifting tax plans.
  • Reeves suggested taxes would rise, but later stepped back, causing uncertainty.
  • Audiences overwhelmingly expect Labour to increase income tax but are not bothered by potential manifesto breaches (09:05–10:13).
    • Notable Quote: “I think everybody has concluded that that tax commitment from Labour was mad, they shouldn’t have made it before the election.” (10:13, Stewart)

• Leadership Instability and Open Infighting

  • Persistent rumors swirl about Starmer’s future, with chatter of alternatives like Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting.
  • Labour’s mechanisms make leadership challenges difficult, unlike the Conservative “1922 Committee” system:
    • “The mechanics of getting rid of Starmer [are] difficult.” (21:21, Stewart)

• The Mandate for Big Change

  • Both hosts argue Labour must be bolder, riskier, and present a real strategy for growth.
    • “They've got to do something radical.” (03:41, Stewart)
    • “You’ve got to do big things in politics.” (22:45, Campbell)
  • Campbell: “He has got resilience. That has got to be turned into confidence. And the confidence has got to be turned into courage.” (23:09)

2. Labour’s Fiscal Dilemma – Tax and Growth

• Rachel Reeves’ Budget Headaches

  • Reeves faces a “20 billion black hole” and little fiscal room for maneuver, even after reportedly “better than expected” signals from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
  • Both warn that piecemeal tax rises (“pick off a bit of tax here, a bit of tax there,” 11:47–13:04) are politically dangerous and economically insufficient.

• Business Anxiety & Capital Flight

  • Possible tax rises on entrepreneurs and property make Labour donors, MPs, and business types consider moving abroad.
    • “If the budget hits me as hard as the last one did, then I’m...looking to go.” (15:19, Campbell, paraphrasing a donor)
    • Stewart: “Capital is much more mobile than left wing economists want to believe...” (15:43)

• Lack of Credible Growth Vision

  • When asked about Labour’s growth plan, business audiences “laughed.”
    • “That’s a terrible place to be in.” (02:04, Campbell; 19:03, Campbell)
  • Stewart: “Labour is at risk of defaulting to its comfort zone, which is squeezing business, entrepreneurs, wealth creators, and...abandoned...traditional pro business, pro market deregulation policies.” (14:37)

3. The Asylum Policy Gamble

• Shabana Mahmood’s New Asylum Plan

  • Dominating media headlines, Labour proposes tightening rules on appeal, making status temporary and harder to achieve, and increasing “safe country” listings. (25:53–28:07)
  • Aims to reduce crossings by making UK less attractive—but Stewart and Campbell question effectiveness.

• Gerald Knaus’ Return Deal

  • Hosts cite Gerald Knaus (architect of the EU-Turkey deal) who suggests real deterrence only comes from automatic third-country returns (e.g., to France or Germany), not harsher conditions.
    • “If you make that journey, knowing you get sent straight back...that is what happened with Turkey.” (28:07, Campbell)
    • "It works." (28:47, Stewart)

• Parliamentary Reaction

  • Campbell watched the entire Parliamentary debate; notes less Labour backbench revolt than expected and some praise even from Tories, but deep unease from Labour’s left and reform critics accusing Labour of “auditioning to join reform.” (29:11–31:54)
  • Mahmood praised for her detail and grip, but many see this as playing into Reform’s hands.

• Limits and Risks

  • Stewart doubts the plan will meaningfully cut numbers:
    • “People whose claim is rejected and who are not deported...choose to go into the grey economy and then they’re in a very difficult situation.” (33:23)
    • Campbell: “Many have done great things after settling—what if they had been forced to return?” (36:41)

4. The Global Context: Populism, Farage, and the American Example

• Farage’s Meteoric Ascent

  • Farage, recently written off as a fringe figure, now polls as possible Prime Minister in some “informed, politically engaged” audiences. (07:19–08:18)
  • Campbell: Labour must take the fight to Farage by painting his true connections to Russia, Trump, the BBC attacks, and his “best mate” going to jail for treason:
    • “Farage is utterly beatable if they start attacking him properly...It is closeness to Russia, it is supporting Donald Trump...best mate...about to go to jail for, effectively, treason...” (24:09–25:04, Campbell)

• Internal Party Dysfunction

  • Internal Labour briefings/leaks “not done through Starmer’s permission” must stop (25:13): “There are too many of them who go around thinking they're in a movie of their own making...Stop doing it, shut up.” (25:53, Campbell)

5. The Rise of Christian Nationalism and the “Fascist” Debate in America

• Audience Polls on US Fascism

  • In live show polls, over 70% of every audience (82% in Glasgow) agreed the US could be witnessing the birth of a “fascist” state under Trump. (43:41–44:09)
  • Stewart: “I use words like proto fascist...it doesn’t mean what he’s doing is not unbelievably dangerous and troubling.” (44:09)

• Christian Nationalism Explained

  • Stewart explains Trump’s coalition: “tech bros,” the broad MAGA base, and Christian nationalists—prompted by Nick Fuentes’ recent interview.
  • Fuentes described as a genuine fascist: “Jews are responsible for every war in the world and they must be absolutely annihilated when we take power.” (45:12, Stewart)
  • Large swathes of Republican staffers reportedly listening to extremist voices.

• Fascist Principles Checklist (per Umberto Eco)

  • Campbell and Stewart walk through Eco’s fascism traits, showing how many are visible in US/MAGA rhetoric: cult of tradition, fear of difference, machismo, anti-intellectualism, and more. (51:46–54:08)
    • “That is the birth of fascism.” (54:08, Campbell)

• Application to British Context

  • Stewart: “We need to acknowledge that’s what Tommy Robinson is about: 100%.” (54:08–54:24)
  • Personal experience: Stewart details being targeted with abuse for challenging Robinson and his supporters.
  • Farmers, donors, and even “wealthy, educated people” are asking “do you think we need a Trump?” (54:52–55:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Labour’s predicament:
  • Campbell: “I was to get it out of my system would regularly be sort of banging my head against a wall and just sort of, what the fuck is going on?” (08:18)
• On manifesto honesty:
  • Stewart: “Nobody thinks it’s a good idea to just plow ahead with a stupid plan for four years, because you said you were going to do it.” (10:13)
• On Starmer’s qualities and challenge:
  • Campbell: “He has got resilience. That has got to be turned into confidence. And the confidence has got to be turned into courage.” (23:09)
• On migration solutions:
  • Stewart: “We cannot survive as liberal governments unless we put proper controls in our borders, which are humane and just.” (39:48)
• On the American scene:
  • Campbell: “That is the birth of fascism.” (54:08)
  • Stewart (on Tommy Robinson): “We’re endlessly whitewashing...I’m getting more and more aggravated about this.” (54:25–55:45)
• On Impersonators:
  • Campbell: “I do have a very hard...Andrew Dunn who did me said, you’re very hard to get because your voice keeps changing a bit.” (59:12–59:37)

Memorable Segment Timestamps

• Audience polling shock (Labour vs. Farage): 05:29–07:14
• Labour’s tax confusion dissected: 09:05–11:43
• Business and donor anxieties revealed: 15:06–16:34
• Strategy for growth: “They laughed.” 19:03
• Open infighting and leadership question debate: 19:43–22:13
• Asylum reform details and critique: 25:53–34:15
• Gerald Knaus’ migration model: 28:07–29:03
• Farage threat and attack lines: 24:09–25:04
• Fascism in America/Umberto Eco checklist: 51:46–54:08
• Stewart’s clash with Tommy Robinson: 54:24–54:52

Summary Takeaway

This episode reflects a UK political landscape in flux and under pressure, with Labour apparently “out of moves” and a populist wave threatening traditional party lines. The hosts vigorously challenge Labour’s credibility, message discipline, and readiness to confront Farage head-on. The asylum reforms are recognized as both politically savvy and potentially unworkable. Parallels are drawn between Britain’s and America’s vulnerability to populism and proto-fascism, underlining the episode’s central warning: without radical, confident action, the centre left risks being swept away by movements far outside liberal democratic norms.