The Rest Is Politics
Episode 472: Is Trump’s Peace 'Plan’ Forced Surrender for Ukraine?
Date: November 23, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Episode Overview
This emergency episode dives deep into the newly leaked "Trump peace plan" for Ukraine, critically dissecting its contents, implications, and the political response in both the UK and across Europe. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart use their combined insider knowledge, international contacts, and frank debate to scrutinize whether this plan is really a forced surrender for Ukraine, and what it reveals about the future of Western alliances, European security, and US/UK foreign policy.
Main Topics and Key Insights
1. The “Trump Peace Plan” for Ukraine: Anatomy & Content
- Purpose: The leaked draft, crafted primarily by Steve Witkoff (Trump's negotiator), outlines a 28-point framework for ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Immediate Reactions: The plan is met with shock and anger, seen as overwhelmingly favoring Russia, undermining Ukrainian sovereignty, and offering little genuine security.
- Comparisons: Campbell likens this plan to Trump’s so-called "peace" deal in Gaza, criticizing both as giving the aggressor nearly everything they want.
Notable Quote:
“This is basically saying, I'm sick to death of dealing with this... and here’s, for God’s sake, the basis on which it ends.”
— Alastair Campbell (05:10)
2. Breakdown of Major Points from the Plan
a. Territorial Concessions & Sovereignty
- Ukraine’s sovereignty “confirmed,” but Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk to be recognized as de facto Russian—even by the US (06:03).
- Ukraine must give up more land than Russia currently occupies; effectively a reward for aggression.
- Ambiguity: Plan freezes lines but, as Stewart puts it, “is not just freezing the frontlines where they are. It’s giving Russia more than they currently have.” (06:03)
b. Demilitarization & Security Guarantees
- Non-aggression pacts echoing historical analogies (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), seen as undermining long-term security (08:08).
- Ukraine barred from joining NATO and even enshrining this in its constitution; its armed forces limited to 600,000—well below current levels (12:04).
- “If you're a sovereign country, you can decide how much you want to spend on defence, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin has done.”
— Alastair Campbell (12:04) - Limiting European and US military presence and aid, set up with conditions that favor Russian and US business interests.
c. US-EU Security and Economic Role
- US security guarantees loaded with caveats and economic compensation (“The US will receive compensation for the guarantee... will lose the guarantee if Russia invades Ukraine…”), with no clear commitment to defend Ukraine (14:46).
- US and European profits prioritized in reconstruction, with a “mafia deal” feel:
“The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture... having put no money in.”
— Rory Stewart (18:03)
d. Blanket Amnesty & Historical Denial
- Blanket amnesty for war crimes ("all parties ... will receive full amnesty ... no claims in the future" – 24:00). Forced “denazification” language, widely seen as Russian narrative.
e. Ukraine’s Political Future
- Rapid elections (in 100 days), likely timed to exploit current Ukrainian political scandals and possibly unseat Zelenskyy (24:45).
f. Trump as “Peace Council” Head
- Trump cast as the arbiter, overseeing plan implementation—bolstering his own profile for personal and political gain (24:59).
3. European Reaction & Geopolitical Stakes
- Europe broadly rejects the plan. Leaders debate whether to outright dismiss it or use it as basis for counter-proposals. Solidarity remains, but undertones of fear about losing US support or provoking Trump (29:14).
- Criticism of America’s shifting position: “What the US is saying is that it doesn’t have allies anymore... it no longer cares about the Western alliance, values, or liberal democracy. What Trump fundamentally cares about is making money.”
— Rory Stewart (52:54) - Fears that if Ukraine is forced to capitulate, the Baltic states and wider Europe are at more risk.
- Stewart: “If Putin triumphs in Ukraine in this way, there is a considerable risk that he will then continue to push ahead in places like the Baltic.” (22:17)
4. US Political Dynamics & Actors
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J.D. Vance vs. Marco Rubio: Vance is portrayed as harder-line isolationist, more hostile to Europe and liberal democracy. Rubio’s role as Secretary of State is uncertain amidst Trump’s freelance diplomacy approach (32:09).
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Freelance Diplomacy: Unusual prominence of people like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and, on the Russian side, Kirill Dmitriev, sidelining traditional diplomacy (32:09, 33:49).
Notable Quote:
“Trump is much more consistent than people appreciate. This deal is only a hair-breadth different from the deal Russia was asking for.”
— Rory Stewart (23:24)
5. The Wider Crisis of Western Response
- Weak UK media and political class: Campbell laments that Russian interference (and related scandals) aren’t even making headlines, highlighting British and wider Western complacency (43:01).
- Right-wing populists across Europe and the UK (including Farage, AFD, Le Pen) remain soft or sympathetic to Russia, posing a systemic threat to democracies (47:43).
6. What Next? Can Europe Fill the Gap?
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Broad acceptance among European leaders that they must prepare to defend themselves, develop stronger defenses, and not rely on the US (49:14).
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Listeners and hosts argue about “war-mongering” versus “sound alarm”:
“The reason why we are saying that we have to prepare is exactly because we've seen places like Iraq and Afghanistan done. We know how horrendous it is when things go wrong. And this idea that you’re going to be safe by putting your head on the ground... is really at the heart of it."
— Rory Stewart (50:51)
7. Values, Diplomacy, and the Disorder of the “New Normal”
- The episode closes by stressing that international diplomacy and leadership have irreversibly changed. Trump’s alliances with autocrats and disdain for Western values are now plain.
“Our world of diplomacy has fundamentally changed. And that's what Zelenskyy's finding out right now.”
— Alastair Campbell (56:32)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the plan’s essence:
“This is like the mafia days of old in American business deals.”
— Chatham House (cited by Alastair Campbell, 18:16) -
On blank amnesty for war crimes:
“We know war crimes have been committed... no punishment, blanket amnesty.”
— Alastair Campbell (24:00) -
On European attitude:
“They’re trying to keep (America) broadly on board, but buy time for Europe to develop its better defences.”
— Alastair Campbell (49:14) -
On the US mindset:
"What Trump fundamentally cares about is making money. Right at the heart of this deal is minerals deals, 50% profits, doing business with Russia."
— Rory Stewart (52:54) -
On the stakes for Ukraine:
“Lisa Jasko, the mp, is saying that if we accept this whole package, it is an act of national suicide.”
— Alastair Campbell (18:18)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:05 – Episode focus on Ukraine and the leaked plan.
- 05:22 – Beginning the point-by-point breakdown of the plan.
- 09:51 – Discussion of US as 'neutral mediator' and implications.
- 12:04 – Detailed critique of force size limitations and sovereignty.
- 14:46 – Security “guarantees” and US profit-making from reconstruction.
- 18:03 – Analysis of economic, security working groups, and “mafia deals.”
- 22:17 – Sweeping amnesty for war crimes explained.
- 24:45 – Ukrainian elections and Trump's role as Peace Council head.
- 29:14 – European leaders’ strategic response and debate.
- 32:09 – Freelance diplomacy, minor actors, and Russian negotiators.
- 43:01 – Media’s blindness to Russia’s threat in the UK.
- 49:14 – Europe’s need to step up and defense urgency.
- 52:54 – What the plan really reveals about US attitudes and priorities.
- 56:32 – Final take: new diplomatic realities and standing by Ukraine.
Overall Tone & Final Thoughts
Campbell and Stewart’s tone is urgent, analytical, and occasionally wry, highlighting the gravity of the moment but leavened by their characteristic clarity and willingness to disagree agreeably. The episode is a clarion call for European—and especially British—audiences to wake up to the strategic, military, and values-based implications of the Trump plan, and the broader unraveling of the old Western order.
Summary Judgement:
The “Trump Peace Plan” is, in the hosts’ view, a forced Ukrainian capitulation with global consequences, marking a turning point in Western security and diplomacy. Europe must now choose: reject the plan outright and invest in its own defense and values, or face a future shaped by autocracy and appeasement.