The Rest Is Politics – Episode 475: The Budget Backlash – and Trump's Plan to Profit from Peace in Ukraine

Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Date: December 3, 2025

Episode Overview

Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart analyze the turbulent aftermath of the UK's recent budget, the challenges of political communication in a febrile media environment, and the growing commercial entanglements surrounding Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace ambitions. This episode delves into domestic British policy debates, the politics and substance of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget, the state of UK journalism, and Trump’s transactional approach to geopolitics, particularly regarding Ukraine, Venezuela, and Honduras.

I. UK Budget Fallout: Facts, Fiascos, and Media Narratives

A. The OBR Briefing Controversy and Resignation [03:53–06:01]

• Key points:
  • Rumors swirled that Chancellor Rachel Reeves had been warned of a fiscal crisis by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
  • Journalists were primed to expect income tax rises, but Reeves ultimately froze thresholds and raised revenue through other taxes.
  • Journalists, including Robert Peston, were left feeling misled.
  • Resignation of Richard Hughes (OBR head) tied both to a botched early budget release and deeper frictions over OBR’s remit.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “He felt effectively lied to, that he was briefed… there was a severe fiscal crisis… [but] it turned out that wasn’t the information she’d got…” [05:02]

B. The Changing Media Landscape [06:23–10:03]

• Campbell argues media speculation, not government leaks, often drives pre-budget narrative chaos.
  • Outlines the shift from journalistic caution to today’s speculative, spin-driven reporting.
• Calls for a return to “the golden rule” where only authorized and accountable voices shape budget narratives.
• Quote:
  • Alastair Campbell: “Unless it comes from somebody authorized to speak on behalf of them, it has no merit whatsoever.” [07:57]

C. Budget Analysis: Style vs. Substance [10:03–13:09]

• Stewart critiques Rachel Reeves for aiming to please both Labour MPs and market actors, ending up “in a gray muddle in the middle.”
• Both hosts note the budget was well-received by Labour backbenchers and financial markets, but express frustration at the lack of radical economic vision.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “She’s neither doing the kind of radical pro-business reforms... nor prepared to really lean into the kind of instincts of her backbenchers… ends up in a gray muddle.” [10:34]

II. Media Framing vs. Policy Reality

A. Keir Starmer’s Unheard Announcements [11:27–16:09]

• Alastair reviews Starmer’s recent speech, lamenting that major policy announcements (lifting the two-child benefit cap, reforms to nuclear power planning, welfare overhaul) were ignored by the press.
• Points to the lack of substantive policy reporting compared to the hard focus on political drama.
• Draws contrasts with alleged media cheerleading for past Conservative policies.
• Quote:
  • Alastair Campbell: “If this was France or Germany... that would have been part of the news coverage. I’ve not seen it anywhere.” [15:55]

B. Critique of Modern Political Journalism [16:09–18:02]

• Stewart laments that government announcements are often treated as proof of delivery rather than starting points for scrutiny.
• Argues neither the press nor government is trusted to offer substantive, transparent policy updates.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “The government makes endless announcements and they want the press to report them as though they’ve achieved them.” [16:54]

C. Media’s Relentless Adversarialism [18:02–25:18]

• Campbell claims Labour faces uniquely hostile coverage reminiscent of earlier decades.
• Stewart counters that outgoing Conservative leaders experienced similarly dismissive treatment.
• Discussion centers on whether the current media climate allows for fair, nuanced debate or drives all politics toward personality and scandal.

III. Debating Rachel Reeves: Technocrat or Visionary?

A. Lack of Narrative Drive [29:32–35:46]

• Stewart critiques Reeves and Labour for failing to articulate a singular, driving narrative: “What’s the problem you’re fixing?”
• Accuses the Chancellor of being “a competent technocrat” rather than a bold reformer.
• Calls for clarity on economic priorities and risks.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “In the end, there needs to be a relentless idea, driven through government, of what the priority is here… What’s the problem you’re fixing and what are you doing about it? And that’s why I think she’s no good.” [32:15]
• Campbell notes Shared Disappointment: budget silence on AI, tech, and strategic investment.

B. Importance of Risk and Boldness in Leadership [35:04–35:46]

• Stewart: success requires picking clear enemies and taking calculated risks.
• “Britain’s in trouble…you’d have to be very brave, you’d have to pick enemies…”

IV. Trump, Ukraine, and Foreign Policy Transactionalism

A. Wall Street Journal Exposé on Trump’s Ukraine Plan [40:51–42:52]

• Stewart highlights US investigative work uncovering backchannels between Trump allies (including donors and family associates) and the Russian regime.
• The Kremlin dangles “juicy deals” on minerals and state assets in exchange for US acquiescence to Russian designs in Ukraine.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “Kremlin policy since January… [is] to say, forget about Europe. We will give you lots of juicy deals… in return… your recognition that Ukraine is… part of the Russian sphere of influence.” [41:21]

B. Trump’s Relationship with the Media [43:29–45:41]

• Campbell observes Trump’s ability to manipulate press coverage and dominate the news agenda, despite constant false promises of peace breakthroughs.
• Draws a contrast to British press hostility to Starmer/Reeves.
• Quote:
  • Alastair Campbell: “For some reason, Trump has got this hold over the media because they know that he is newsworthy. Whatever he says, whatever he does, people will tune in.” [44:01]

C. The Commercialization of US Diplomacy [45:41–49:57]

• Reports of Trump’s inner circle, especially Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, mixing private business interests with national security policy.
• Campbell recounts Kushner’s notorious habit of blending official diplomacy with private dealmaking.
• Stewart: The US foreign policy machine is being sidelined for commercial gain.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “Half the meeting would be about business deals. Kushner would…say, let’s stop talking about whatever geopolitical issue we’re talking about. By the way, I’d like to do this deal.” [46:42]

D. The Futility of Trump’s Ukraine “Peace Plans” [48:41–50:55]

• Both hosts assert that nothing in the Trump-adjacent proposals addresses the irreconcilable positions of Russia and Ukraine.
• Ukraine-Russia war described as nowhere near an end; commercial deals overshadow peace principles.

E. Changing Dynamics on the Battlefield [50:55–51:55]

• Stewart notes Russian advances in drone warfare with new fiber optic models sourced from China.
• Campbell highlights significant Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” hurting Putin’s economic resilience.

V. Venezuela & Honduras: Extrajudicial Power and Pardons

A. Venezuela: US Military Escalation [51:55–54:31]

• Reports of dramatic US strikes on Venezuelan vessels with ambiguous legal basis.
• Trump’s team allegedly orders the killing of all survivors in controversial incidents.
• Lawmakers accuse administration of perpetrating war crimes.
• Quote:
  • Rory Stewart: “You are not allowed to conduct extrajudicial killings of this sort… overseas, it’s even more extreme… you don’t get to just… randomly assassinate other people’s citizens…” [55:16]

B. Honduras: Pardons and Political Threats [54:31–59:33]

• Trump dangles pardons for convicted drug traffickers (e.g., ex-President Hernandez) while threatening to cut Honduran aid if the “wrong” candidate wins.
• Campbell: illustrates a worldview where loyalty to Trump outweighs any concerns over crime or justice.
• Quote:
  • Alastair Campbell: “What Trump is doing here is signaling that if you are part of his gang… you should be entitled to do anything you want. And that goes up to and including flooding America with drugs. As long as you’re my guy, it’s okay.” [57:19]

C. The Weakening of Old Alliances [59:33–60:22]

• Stewart notes the absence of Russia, China, and Iran in defending Venezuela—each withheld out of transactional interest in current US deals or pending negotiations.

D. Rule of Law vs. Rule by Favour [60:22–62:00]

• Campbell confirms that Trump rarely consults case evidence, acting only on appeals from his circle.
• Stewart highlights the contradiction of pardoning US-convicted drug kingpins while waging violent campaigns at home and abroad.

VI. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rory Stewart:
  “What’s the problem you’re fixing and what are you doing about it? That’s why I think she’s no good.” [32:15]
• Alastair Campbell:
  “If this was France or Germany… that would have been part of the news coverage. I’ve not seen it anywhere.” [15:55]
• Rory Stewart on Trump’s Ukraine policy:
  “Putin thinks this is like Stalin dealing with Roosevelt and Truman about dividing up Europe after the Second World War.” [41:37]
• On the media’s focus:
  “The government makes endless announcements and they want the press to report them as though they’ve achieved them.” [16:54]

VII. Further Topics Teased for Upcoming Episodes

• Zach Polanski’s Green Party economics.
• Climate tragedies in Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
• Alastair Campbell’s campaign to rejoin the EU.

Key Timestamps for Reference

• UK Budget/OBR Fallout: [03:53–13:09]
• Media Critique / Starmer’s Speech: [11:27–16:09]
• Substance vs. Performance in Leadership: [29:32–35:46]
• Trump’s Ukraine “Peace” Plan: [40:51–50:55]
• Venezuela/Honduras Segment: [51:55–62:00]

Tone & Style

• Direct, frank debate with moments of wit and exasperation; political insider anecdotes abound.
• Critical, analytical, and sometimes sharply polemical—especially on media failures and political risk-aversion.

Takeaway

This episode is a masterclass in joined-up political analysis, blending deep policy criticism, acute media observation, and global geopolitical context. Campbell and Stewart are both deeply skeptical of surface narratives—whether in British domestic politics or Trump’s international machinations—and continually call for greater clarity, risk, and honesty in both government and the press.