The Rest Is Politics – Ep. 480 “Trump, China, and the Scramble for Latin America (Question Time)”

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Rory Stewart & Alastair Campbell

Main Theme & Episode Overview

This Question Time episode explores the changing landscape of international politics with a focus on Trump’s assertive policies toward Latin America, the evolving relationship between the UK and the US, and the growing influence of China in the region. The hosts also dig into the state of the UK’s House of Lords and constitutional reform, Bulgaria’s anti-corruption protests, under-reported hunger strikes by Palestine Action members, and the value of long-form, in-depth podcast journalism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US–Latin America Policy under Trump (02:28 – 19:24)

• Renewed Focus on Latin America

  • Both hosts discuss the Trump White House’s unprecedented attention on Latin America.
  • Alastair notes that the current US national security strategy leads with Latin America—a shift from traditional Eurocentric focus.

    “This White House is more focused on Latin America than any American government I can remember.” — Alastair Campbell (04:08)

• Massive Military Presence

  • Rory highlights the largest US naval deployment in the Caribbean since 1962’s Cuban Missile Crisis, parked for “anti-drugs” operations but widely seen as leverage over political regimes and resources.

    “Am I right, the largest American naval deployment in the Caribbean since 1962…a massive proportion of the American fleet now parked off Latin America.” — Rory Stewart (05:15)

  • Alastair: Many suspect these operations are about oil and regime change (Maduro in Venezuela), not just narcotics.

• Direct American Political Interventions

  • Explicit support and financial backing for preferred candidates, e.g., Argentina's Milei, and pressure on countries like Honduras and Brazil.
  • Discussion on the rise of “Make Chile Great Again” and other Trumpian-sounding slogans from Latin American leaders (Chile’s Castle).

• Populism’s Changing Colour

  • Rory explains the shift from left-wing to right-wing populism in the region.
  • Reference to Moises Naim’s “three Cs”:

    “Crime is the way they're winning power…corruption is what then they engage in…then the sheer cruelty of a lot of the policies.” — Campbell (07:33)

• Personalistic Diplomacy

  • Trump's style is described as strongly personalized, focusing on leader-to-leader dealings rather than multilateral agreements.
  • Example: Trump tells Colombia’s leader to “get in line or you’re next”, or warns Brazil over prosecuting Bolsonaro, complicated by trade/material interests (rare earths).

• The China Factor

  • China is deeply entrenched economically and in infrastructure (Huawei, mineral processing, etc.).
  • Rory: US attempts to push China out (“the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine”) may be futile due to China’s depth of ties.
  • Rory: “Argentina, which is the most pro-American of all, has Chinese listening stations in southern Argentina.” (13:15)

• Strategic Dilemma for Latin America

  • Campbell draws a parallel to the UK’s own balancing act between Trump and Europe.
  • Latin countries must navigate relations with the US (biggest investor) and China (biggest trade partner).

• Underlying Economic Struggles

  • Rory: Latin America’s income has fallen relative to the US from parity centuries ago to a fifth today, largely due to “corruption, ineptitude of state structures, horrifying criminalization”.
  • Campbell: The drug narrative is a cover; the US fleet’s real target is controlling “thick” oil, lacking domestically.

• Dramatic Show of Force

  • US Navy SEALs seizing a Venezuela-sanctions-evading tanker:

    “Moises [Naim] said that was a very dramatic moment and quite a strategic moment as well.” — Campbell (18:03)

2. UK Politics: House of Lords & Constitutional Reform (19:24 – 32:53)

• Is the Lords Blocking Democracy?

  • Listener question: Lords blocking Labour manifesto commitments (e.g., unfair dismissal rights) — A “constitutional crisis?”
  • Rory: In practice, government can push through its manifesto if it truly wants; inaction often means a lack of political will (or internal opposition).
  • Both hosts lament the Lords’ size (“well over 800 people”), its outdated nature, and the dilution of scrutiny.

• Inefficiencies and Party Political Games

  • Alastair: Lords deliberately “buggering around” — e.g., Assisted Dying bill with over 1000 amendments to block progress.
  • Rory: Commons often fails to scrutinize; whips deter knowledgeable MPs from relevant committees, so real scrutiny is shunted to the Lords.
  • Campbell critiques the closed ecosystem:

    “How can this be a modern democratic system for the scrutiny of the laws that affect…every single person in this country?” (26:03)

• Possible Solutions

  • Campbell: Calls for a Citizens’ Assembly to overhaul the second chamber.
  • Rory: Supports crossbench, non-party political appointments; cautions against an elected second chamber due to rivalry.
  • Concludes that the ultimate responsibility for reform sits with the government (and Keir Starmer specifically).

3. Clean Energy & Land Use in the UK (35:29 – 39:42)

• Solar Growth and Barriers

  • Question about why solar energy uptake is slow.
  • Rory: Only 0.1% of UK land currently solar; could scale to 1% but faces land use, transmission, and aesthetic opposition.
  • Blenheim Estate controversy over turning farmland into solar fields.

• Public Perceptions

  • Alastair: Expresses affection for the sight of solar and wind from above.
  • Rory: Notes rural resistance when iconic landscapes become dominated by panels.

4. Bulgaria’s Democratic Protests & Corruption (39:42 – 43:17)

• Summary of Events

  • Recent youth-led mass protests against corruption and tax hikes forced out the government.
  • Rory: Unusual that student movements protested higher social security/taxes, usually the opposite stance.

• Entrenched Corruption

  • Alastair: Bulgaria ranked lowest in EU for corruption (Transparency International).
  • But both hosts emphasize EU membership has largely improved prospects for Bulgaria versus the counterfactual.

• Eurozone Entry

  • Bulgaria is about to join the Euro amid major political upheaval, raising questions about whether strict convergence criteria are truly being enforced.

5. Palestine Action Hunger Strikes: Media Silence (43:17 – 50:10)

• Context

  • Palestine Action members have been on hunger strike for over 40 days, protesting their designation as a terrorist group and demanding closure of Elbit Systems’ UK facilities.
  • Striking absence of mainstream media coverage, compared to the high-profile Bobby Sands case in 1981.

• Analysis

  • Rory: Notes 2,600 arrests of solidarity protesters; “The intelligence and security services privately disagreed with the terrorist classification”.
  • Alastair: Describes the disconnect—an era with “so much news space”, yet little attention to this story. Wonders if the government is even aware.
  • Both agree changing editorial priorities and algorithm-driven attention explain the silence.

6. Is Long-Form Podcasting the Antidote to Soundbites? (50:10 – end)

• Listener Question

  • Does the popularity of in-depth podcasts show a real appetite for substance over soundbites?

• Insights

  • Alastair: People are increasingly overwhelmed by 24/7 news and turn to podcasts for context and understanding.
  • He criticizes the “algorithmization” of news for chasing drama and anger, even as complex times require more depth.
  • Rory: Proud of podcast’s ability to go “step by step” through nuanced plans (Ukraine, Gaza, AI).
  • Both agree: Podcasts create unique connections with listeners and fill an unmet demand for thoughtful, detailed analysis.
  • Touching moment: Alastair shares a heartfelt note from a listener whose late father cherished their show.

    “So thank you for giving him the pleasure of your company.” — (Tariq Panja’s message, 55:19)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Latin America

  “It’s Trump’s genius that he’s able to make most Americans think this is about stopping drugs…It’s about a lot more than that.”
  — Alastair Campbell (19:20)

• On China’s Role

  “China is absolutely dominating the processing of all the minerals coming out of places like Chile.”
  — Rory Stewart (13:00)

• On Lords Reform

  “We have reached a point now where the House of Lords is beyond a joke…now well over 800 people who are legislators for life.”
  — Alastair Campbell (21:35)

• On Political Media

  “We live in a very weird attention landscape where stories that you would have thought…would be one of the biggest news stories of all time…and it isn’t.”
  — Rory Stewart (48:58)

• On Podcasting’s Power

  “That is a relationship you and I had with somebody we never met, but whose child feels compelled to tell us that that meant something.”
  — Alastair Campbell (55:19)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s Latin America Policy, China, and Populism: 02:28 – 19:24
• House of Lords/Constitution: 19:24 – 32:53
• Solar & Land Use in the UK: 35:29 – 39:42
• Bulgaria’s Protests and Corruption: 39:42 – 43:17
• Palestine Action Hunger Strikes & Missing News: 43:17 – 50:10
• Long-form Podcasting & Listener Letters: 50:10 – end

Tone & Style

The conversation is frank, knowledgeable, and infused with the sardonic wit and political skepticism the hosts are known for. Both are unafraid to “disagree agreeably,” trading granular policy analysis and Westminster gossip in equal measure.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode weaves together shifting geopolitics in the Americas, the state of democracy and due process at home and abroad, and the urgent need for deeper news formats in a world overwhelmed by noise. The result is a trenchant, globe-trotting Q&A that ranges from the South Atlantic to Scotland, Brussels to Bulgaria—anchored in the hosts’ trademark blend of candor, humor, and profound political insight.