The Rest Is Politics – Episode 483: The Future of British Politics, How The World Order Is Changing, and The Power of History
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: December 31, 2025
Episode Overview
In this lively New Year's Eve special, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart analyze the current state and future of British politics against the backdrop of shifting global dynamics. The duo applies their signature balance of insight and friendly disagreement to dissect the fortunes of UK political parties, the evolving world order, historical narratives’ power in geopolitics, and leaders to watch for 2026. They provide forward-looking "New Year’s resolutions" for each of the UK’s main political parties, discuss emerging challenges from populism and global instability, and reflect on the increasingly complex networks of power shaping the 21st-century world.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Location and Personal Touches (02:24–03:15)
- Alastair and Rory are both in Scotland for New Year's, with a playful exchange about Scottish history and the Glencoe Massacre.
- Kicks off with typical banter:
"I'd love to know how many of our listeners have 20 acres of land."
— Alastair Campbell, 01:00
New Year’s Resolutions for British Political Parties
Labour Party (03:38–09:46)
- Alastair’s Resolution: “Go for growth and get a grip.”
- Labour must refocus on economic growth, its supposed core mission, and improve coherence and direction across government.
- Criticizes Labour’s shifting language away from ‘growth’ and emphasizes a need for discipline and narrative clarity.
- Rory incorporates economist Felix Martin’s advice:
- Overhaul banking/finance to allow for more responsible risk-taking.
- Build on momentum in planning and infrastructure (e.g., film studios).
- Tackle high energy prices, especially for businesses.
- Deregulate and reduce bureaucracy choking business.
“These are Peter Kyle issues, not Rachel Reeves issues... They take political courage.”
— Rory Stewart, 07:44 - Peter Kyle’s rising prominence:
Campbell spotlights his role brokering business-union compromise and hints he may lead a new growth agenda.
Conservative Party (10:44–15:47)
- Rory’s themes:
- Conservatives need to regain ‘agency’ and compete on a genuine growth agenda, especially in energy and incentives to return people to the workforce.
- Should focus on workforce participation and more radical energy policies.
- Alastair’s Slogan: “Own your past.”
- Urges honest acknowledgment of mistakes since 2019, especially post-Boris era, to rebuild public trust.
“I think all the things you’re saying are perfectly sensible... but I don’t think they’ll get a proper public hearing until they are honest about the extent to which the problems... are the consequences of choices that the Tories made.”
— Alastair Campbell, 12:52
Liberal Democrats (15:47–18:14)
- Need a strong national message (especially on Europe/Brexit) that complements effective local campaigning.
- Discussion of risk-aversion: Lib Dems often shy from strong national stances for fear of alienating local voters.
- Both hosts agree volatility presents opportunity for further growth but clarity on what the Lib Dems stand for is essential.
Reform UK (18:41–22:15)
- Rory argues their strategy is to outflank Tories by emphasizing Labour’s “leftism” and Tory “hopelessness.”
- Alastair urges Reform to improve local government performance and beware of becoming a haven for discredited Tory MPs:
“It’s looking very much like the Tory Party that the country really couldn’t stand any longer. So I’d be wary of that.”
— Alastair Campbell, 21:05 - Pressing need for media and public to subject Reform to proper scrutiny, particularly regarding Russia influence.
Greens, Plaid Cymru, SNP (22:15–24:51)
- Greens: Need a prominent economic voice/spokesperson.
- SNP: Own more of the critique to demonstrate capacity for change.
- Plaid Cymru: Suggests celebrity Matthew Rhys join to add vibrancy and profile.
International Outlook: 2026 and the Changing World Order
The Limits of Prediction, Black Swan Events (27:20–29:15)
- Stewart warns against linear "straight-line" thinking for 2026, emphasizing the unpredictability of "black swan" events: pandemics, tech disruptions, etc.
US Politics & Trump’s Impact (29:15–32:03)
- Campbell expresses anxiety about Trump exploiting international events like the World Cup for political gain.
- Stewart highlights Trump’s oscillating persona, but underlying consistency on protectionism, America First, skepticism of alliances, Russia-friendliness, and corruption.
“He loves the drama of oscillation... the hokey cokey. But on the substance of Ukraine, Russia and USA Europe, Trump has not moved an inch.”
— Rory Stewart, 31:05
Major 2026 Elections and Populism (33:35–43:31)
- Hungarian election: Peter Magyar possibly ending Orban’s long rule ("would be a very, very big moment").
- State elections in Germany: Deep concern at 40%+ polling for AfD, a far-right party.
“We’re now in a state in European politics where almost no party gets 40%... At 40%, you’re getting a much higher percentage than Labour got in the last election.”
— Rory Stewart, 43:31 - Israel (Knesset) election anticipated.
- UK’s local, Scottish, and Welsh elections could reshape UK landscape, with implications for party leaderships.
Britain, Europe, and Right-Wing Populism (44:01–47:27)
- Stewart warns Europe must disentangle from over-reliance on the US (especially under Trump) and develop true strategic autonomy.
- Campbell’s hope: the real nature of right-populism is “properly examined and exposed,” especially their Russia connections and local governance failings.
The Power of Historical Narrative in Politics (35:39–40:37)
- Campbell predicts "historical narratives" will play a crucial role in international contests in 2026:
“I think historical narratives are going to become a big part of this year... China and Russia were using anniversary events... to give a different narrative about the Second World War and who the good guys and who the bad guys were.”
— Alastair Campbell, 36:58 - Stewart notes Western societies’ academic skepticism of their own histories leaves them vulnerable to manipulation by authoritarian regimes.
- The framing of global conflicts (Ukraine, Israel-Palestine) will increasingly be about "who owns history."
Politicians and Leaders to Watch in 2026 (40:37–48:03)
- Hungary: Peter Magyar (challenger to Orban).
- Germany: Friedrich Merz (CDU leader; described as the "most credible, serious leader" in Europe right now).
- Emphasis on Germany’s pivotal role: "Germany is still our best hope, I’m afraid."
- Caution against underestimating impacts of regional elections, especially with far-right surges.
Hopes for UK & World Politics in 2026
- Alastair: Hope for a reckoning with right-populism and an end to the excessive deference to Trump by world leaders.
- Rory: Europe’s allies must reduce dependency on the US and become more resilient and autonomous, both economically and militarily.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
Alastair on Labour’s Direction (03:38):
“Go for growth and get a grip. Growth was meant to be the number one mission... The lack of coherent messaging, coherent narrative and a grip where everybody knows what everybody else is meant to be doing.” -
Rory on long-term economic challenges (07:44):
“Many of these things are, in technical jargon, supply side reforms... not necessarily things where Labour needs to have a huge fight with its backbenchers about tax.” -
Alastair on Conservative honesty (12:52):
“Own your past. I think all the things you’re saying are perfectly sensible thoughts for them, but I don’t think they’re going to get a proper public hearing until they are honest about... the consequences of choices that the Tories made.” -
Rory on the risk of business-as-usual thinking (27:31):
“The problem is that humans tend to think about the future as a straight line... and that just doesn’t take into account the black swans that can suddenly throw things off balance.” -
Alastair on Trump’s impact (30:05):
“If I had a New Year's resolution for Trump... stop lying, stop being so corrupt, and stop being played by Putin.” -
On Historical Narrative (37:02–38:36):
Stewart: “We’ve learned in the U.S. and Europe to be suspicious of our own historical narratives. And Russia and China can exploit that...”
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 03:29 – New Year’s resolutions for Labour and their growth agenda
- 10:44 – Tories: competing on growth, honesty about their record
- 15:47 – Liberal Democrats: need for a national message
- 18:41 – Reform UK: local government record, Russia scrutiny
- 22:15 – Greens/SNP/Plaid: messages and strategy
- 27:20 – Global “black swan” risks in 2026
- 29:15 – Trump, US politics, and global implications
- 33:35 – Hungary and Germany: elections to watch
- 35:39 – The power of historical narrative in global politics
- 44:01 – Dependence on US, autonomy for Europe, right-wing populism
- 46:23 – Europe’s need to "wake up" to US threat
- 47:27 – The importance of Friedrich Merz and German politics
Flow & Tone
- Spirited, occasionally humorous, always substantive.
- Frequent cross-cutting disagreement, but with mutual respect.
“Let’s not do [New Year’s resolutions] for ourselves, let’s do them for the political parties instead.” — Alastair Campbell, 03:15
- Balances insider Westminster gossip with structural global analysis.
- Warning undertone about the urgency of political reform, especially in confronting populism, and global threats to democracy.
Summary for the Uninitiated
This Rest Is Politics episode delivers a panoramic review of British party politics as 2026 approaches, offering sharp, accessible diagnostics of Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Reform, Greens, SNP, and Plaid—plus their international counterparts. Campbell and Stewart blend Westminster insider knowledge, internationalist perspective, and genuine disagreement to illuminate not just where UK politics stands, but how it fits in a rapidly fragmenting world. Key elections, rising right-wing populists, the global contest for historical narrative, and the US’s shifting role all come under the microscope. The episode is essential listening for those seeking both a deep dive on the UK and a coherent map of the risks and opportunities in world politics in the year ahead.