The Rest Is Politics – Episode 484

“War in Europe, Trump’s Destruction of Institutions, and Britain’s National Treasures (Question Time)”

Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Release Date: January 1, 2026

Episode Overview

In this New Year’s Question Time episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart field questions from listeners about the unpredictable state of global politics. Key themes include the future of the US and its global role under Trump, the prospect of war in Europe, the erosion of institutions, the resilience (or lack thereof) of alliances, and musings on national identity and “national treasures.” The hosts combine insider Westminster knowledge with global perspectives, and even in the face of geopolitical gloom, end on a (qualified) note of cautious optimism and hope for positive change.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Retrospective Predictions & Global Order in 2025/26

• Prediction Recap: Rory reviews their predictions from exactly a year ago (03:45), finding they correctly foresaw Trump’s return and anticipated a shift away from rules-based international order. However, both admit they underestimated the magnitude and unpredictability of Trump's actions.

  • Trump’s Tariffs: Imposed not just on rivals like China, but across allies including Switzerland, India, Canada, and with erratic frequency (04:17).
  • Immigration and Law Enforcement: Much harsher than imagined—ICE storming homes, deployment of National Guard—plus little institutional pushback (05:07).
  • Erosion of Congressional Oversight: Trump ignored congressional appropriations, dismantled USAID, and sacked staff with almost no resistance (05:43).
  • Foreign Policy Surprises: Unexpected US strikes on Iran and Israeli attacks on Doha happened with “much less real world impact” than feared, indicating a new normal of chaotic, muted reactions (06:25).

• The New Normal of Chaos: Stewart claims Trump’s presidency is defined not by singular spectacular crises but by a “medium term, hollowing, erosion, degradation of all our institutions.” (10:00)

  • Quote [11:25]:
    "What Trump's doing is rotting the system from within." — Rory

2. Populism vs. Storytelling

• Campbell’s Reflection: Establishment parties are losing out because their storytelling and emotional engagement are far inferior to that of populists (09:00).

  • Quote [09:17]:
    "If there's one thing to learn from Trump, it is you've got to keep storytelling... Mainstream parties across Europe are not doing that remotely well enough." — Alastair

• Mark Carney in Canada is cited as a rare example of a mainstream leader improving at storytelling.

3. War in Europe? Russia, NATO, and the New Global Risks

• ‘Will Europe go to war with Russia in 2026?’ (12:06)

  • Campbell points out that for some, especially in Poland, “Russia is already at war with us” via hybrid tactics, assassinations, and cyberattacks.
  • The core question: What does NATO’s Article 5 mean in this new context, especially if the US withdraws support?

• Trump’s Undermining of Article 5: Stewart stresses Trump’s needless ambiguity and withdrawal of the US security guarantee, shattering confidence in the transatlantic alliance (13:55).

  • Quote [13:58]:
    "Trump... has completely, unnecessarily destroyed all that confidence. He thinks it’s about saving money... but it doesn't cost America anything to say that [an attack on one is an attack on all].” — Rory

• Multiple Global Crises:

  • Stewart warns of scenarios with simultaneous emergencies: Russia annexing Ukraine, a move on the Baltics, war over Taiwan, climate tipping points, or disaster with AI—potentially all at once, generating “a very, very odd world.” (16:00)
  • The key loss: Without US stabilizing power, global crises could spiral without leadership.

• Campbell’s Book Reference (17:13): He recounts a scenario from ‘If Russia Wins’—a Russian move against Estonia prompts US debate: “Are we really going to shed American blood for some village in Estonia?”; the collapse of Article 5 could follow.

4. The Case for National Service

• Listener Question: Should the UK or others reintroduce national service? (18:47)
  • France and Finland’s examples discussed.
  • Stewart suggests a broader “national citizen service,” including non-military options (19:34). Campbell pushes on whether military service should be mandatory (20:09).
    • Stewart: A hybrid model could improve social solidarity and provide vocational training, beyond just military purposes (20:33).
  • Campbell notes the lack of British public awareness about current global dangers.

5. G20, the US Role, and International Cooperation

• Disinviting South Africa from G20 & US Absence (22:25):

  • Campbell and Stewart agree it’s outrageous and undermines the G20’s legitimacy.
  • Campbell notes these actions are driven by Trump’s “white supremacist approach to immigration and race” (23:15).

• The US as ‘Indispensable Parasite’:

  • Stewart’s analogy: Since 1945, the world “invited America in like a parasite,” becoming so dependent it’s nearly impossible to operate without them (24:43).
    • Quote [24:43]:
      “Basically the whole world since 1945, invited America into its body. Like a parasite. We put this huge virus inside our body politic called the United States.” — Rory
  • The UK, Canada, and others cannot easily sever their US ties due to deep economic and defense integration.

6. Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics

• Will AI reach ‘AGI’ by 2027? (27:50)
  • Stewart, midway through a podcast miniseries on AI, outlines the major stakes: If superintelligent AI emerges, it will cement complete dependency on American tech—and could be “very, very dangerous” (28:12).
  • Campbell asks if Europe must always side with the US vs. China; Stewart says the real vulnerability comes not from China’s authoritarianism but from how deeply entwined our systems already are with America (31:31).
  • Quote [33:13]:
    “We’ve let [the US] much more deeply into our system than we’ve let China. And in the unlikely event that Trump keeps exploiting our vulnerabilities... it doesn’t really matter that America is a place founded on liberal democracy and China is an authoritarian communist state.” — Rory

7. Africa, Southeast Asia, and the “Global Majority”

• Known Unknowns (33:38):
  • Stewart underlines climate vulnerability, demographic bombs (e.g., Nigeria's population surge), and post-colonial realignment, particularly with Russia’s Wagner Group and UAE influence in the Sahel.
  • Aid cuts—UK overseas development is now at 1999 levels—have long-term negative effects (36:15).
  • Campbell criticizes Trump’s neglect of Africa, which is both driven by indifference and “white supremacist” politics.

8. National Treasures: Who Counts?

• Defining a ‘National Treasure’ (37:40):
  • Prompted by a listener, Campbell jokes about being one himself; both debate the elusive status.
  • David Attenborough, Prunella Scales, Stephen Fry, Paul McCartney discussed as archetypes.
    • Campbell sets a test: “When the news of their death breaks, will the universal reaction be sadness?” (38:34)
    • McCartney “definitely one”—his passing would be mourned globally.
  • Politicians rarely make the cut; Mandela a unique exception, but even Obama would sharply divide opinions.
  • “Becoming a national treasure is basically a way of saying: aging.” (43:40)
  • Campbell vows to be “edgier, more controversial” to avoid the complacency of ‘treasure’ status.

9. Prime Minister’s Questions – Best Theoretical Match-ups

• Which past/present UK Prime Ministers would be most entertaining at PMQs? (44:25)
  • Campbell: Harold Wilson vs. Boris Johnson would be spectacular for Wilson’s wit.
  • Stewart: Gladstone vs. Gordon Brown would be a “grim liberal” face-off; Lloyd George vs. Churchill would be electric.
  • Both bemoan the loss of old-school oratory and suggest “televizing Parliament has not necessarily improved it.”

10. Reflections, Optimism, and New Year’s Resolutions

• On Getting Predictions Wrong and Hope:
  • Stewart admits being overly optimistic on Kamala Harris in 2024 and says it’s important to warn of what could go wrong (47:40).
  • Both encourage focusing sometimes on “how much good stuff is out there”—including audience moments where most say they “enjoy life” despite the news agenda (48:42).
  • Obama’s choice to not watch the news or scroll his phone is referenced as a (perhaps wise) model for mental health (49:30).
  • Campbell: “I think you keep a sense of positivity by actually constantly saying to yourself, there’s a lot of good stuff out there.” (49:35)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump and Institutions:
  “What Trump did is… much more radical, unpredictable things with less moral consequence and less pushback than you ever could have acknowledged.”
  — Rory, [06:14]

• On Storytelling vs. Populism:
  "What the populists do better than the established parties is to engage people emotionally and strategically." — Alastair, [09:25]

• On NATO and Security:
  “All you need to do to hold that article is just say it clearly, unambiguously… What Trump has done is completely, unnecessarily destroyed all that confidence.”
  — Rory, [13:58]

• On US Dependency:
  “We put this huge virus inside our body politic called the United States”… “Getting ourselves resilient, independent of the US… is not possible at the moment because we've spent 80 years being lured into having bodies that are not really our own bodies.”
  — Rory, [24:43]

• On AI Vulnerabilities:
  “If they do break through… these large language models sit in the United States and we would be even more dependent on America for everything that runs our economy and public services.”
  — Rory, [28:25]

• On National Treasures:
  “Becoming a national treasure is basically a way of saying: aging.”
  — Rory, [43:40]

Important Timestamps

• 03:36 – First listener Q: “What will the world look like at the end of 2026?”
• 04:17–07:19 – Stewart recaps and assesses 2025 predictions, the shock of unexpected Trumpian actions.
• 12:06–17:13 – Will Europe go to war with Russia? NATO, Article 5, and worrying scenarios.
• 18:47–22:25 – National service: Should the UK reintroduce it?
• 22:25–26:00 – G20, US disinvites, and global systems’ reliance on America.
• 27:47–33:38 – The AI dilemma, digital geopolitics, Europe between US-China.
• 33:38–37:40 – Africa, SE Asia, demographics, UK’s retreat from aid.
• 37:40–43:40 – Who counts as a ‘national treasure’ in Britain and why?
• 44:25–47:40 – Dream PMQs battles: Wilson vs. Johnson, Gladstone vs. Brown.
• 47:40–49:55 – Reflection, hope, personal positivity practices (and Obama’s news habits).

Tone & Style

The conversation balances wry humor, qualified exasperation, and deep concern with insider insight. Disagreements remain civil and evidence-driven. There’s a spirit of realism, but both hosts ultimately gravitate toward faith in human adaptation and the hidden resilience of society.

Summary Takeaway

This New Year’s episode offers a sobering tour of international and domestic political fragility, bluntly tracing how unpredictable leadership, populism, and systemic dependence on the US have left the world less stable and harder to read. Yet, Campbell and Stewart’s frank, often witty exchanges model the “lost art of disagreeing agreeably.” The message: pay attention, understand history, but also seek out hope—both in public action and private perspective.