The Rest Is Politics – Episode 485

"Trump Says America will Run Venezuela"

Release Date: January 3, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

This emergency episode reacts in real-time to stunning developments in Venezuela: a dramatic U.S.-led military operation ousting longtime President Nicolás Maduro, directed by President Donald Trump from Mar-a-Lago. Alastair and Rory break down the operation, legality, risks, and global ramifications, drawing parallels to historic interventions while scrutinizing potential fallout for Venezuela, the U.S., and international law. The conversation balances alarm, analysis, and some characteristic dry wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Operation: Surprise, Execution, and Scale

Timestamps: 01:55, 03:09, 07:00

• Maduro & his wife were captured during a surprise U.S. military op, reportedly with no U.S. fatalities.
• Trump oversaw the operation remotely; meticulous intelligence gathering and timing, including disabling Caracas’s electricity and air defenses, were crucial.
• Alastair:
  “Trump has been building up military options in the Caribbean… what was key to this was the element of absolute surprise.” (01:55)
• Rory highlights the operation’s scale: massed Marines, stealth fighters, an aircraft carrier—visible from Caracas.

2. Legality: International & Domestic Challenges

Timestamps: 04:26–07:00

• The hosts dissect the lack of legal justification. The U.S. did not secure UN authorization or Congressional approval, with Trump and Rubio citing dubious national security arguments.
• Most international lawyers, according to Alastair, say “there’s no legal basis of this at all.” (05:01)
• Rory:
  “No consultation with Congress… Congress is feeling particularly bruised… committees called in the administration and were told ‘no regime change was planned’.” (06:24)
• Trump’s approach evokes the Monroe (now “Donro”) Doctrine—asserting U.S. hegemony in its hemisphere, doing things unilaterally.

3. Trump Doctrine & Attitude

Timestamps: 08:00–09:48, 27:26–29:44

• Trump explicitly references U.S. ownership of the Americas, warning neighboring leaders (notably Colombia and Mexico) against defying him.
• Alastair:
  “When he says he’s the leader of the free world, that is how he sees himself.” (08:00)
• Trump directly links the intervention to U.S. interests in Venezuelan oil (27:26), echoing, even amplifying, “it’s about oil” accusations from the Iraq War era.

4. The “Day After” Problem: What Next for Venezuela?

Timestamps: 09:48–18:33, 35:37

• The hosts compare the military operation’s brilliance to the absence of transition planning.
• Rory:
  “What’s grossly irresponsible… is the question of the day after. At least with these other interventions, there was some attempt at planning...” (09:48)
• U.S. officials at a press conference failed to answer who would run Venezuela post-Maduro; Trump vaguely gestured to his inner circle, implying further improvisation (11:25).
• Historical comparison with Panama (1989): Venezuela is vastly larger and more broken; U.S. faces tremendous challenges—8 million refugees, collapsed infrastructure, entrenched criminal networks.

5. Venezuela's Political & Military Reality

Timestamps: 16:05–22:19

• The system Chávez built persists; removing Maduro does not erase an oligarchic structure of generals and officials controlling the economy and judiciary.
• Discussion of prominent regime figures (Interior Minister, Vice President), indictments, and potential for persistent resistance or backroom deals to maintain the existing order.
• The role of “colectivos”—armed paramilitary civilian groups—poses additional complications for securing order and rebuilding.

6. International Ramifications

Timestamps: 22:19–25:58, 38:45–41:26

• Attention to the tepid responses from Latin American neighbors and larger powers (China, Russia): strong rhetoric, little action.
• Rory:
  “Ultimately, not Britain, but Latin America… must decide how to come behind this and what to do.” (22:19)
• Alastair and Rory use hypotheticals: What does this precedent mean for Taiwan, Ukraine, the Falklands, or any small nation facing a powerful neighbor?

7. Trump’s Political & Psychological Drivers

Timestamps: 35:37–38:45, 43:26–44:28, 49:01

• Both hosts argue Trump’s real goal is news spectacle—a reality-TV approach to foreign policy prioritizing drama and dominance over international norms or strategic coherence.
• Potential for hubris and escalation:
  “Luck like that breeds hubris and you then go and do the next thing and stuff doesn’t [work out].” – Alastair (41:58)
• Possible parallels to previous failed interventions (Bay of Pigs, Iran rescue), which could have easily gone wrong.

8. Broader Consequences & Lack of Accountability

Timestamps: 44:28–47:51

• Demise of multilateralism: The UN and European leaders offer only weak protests, hesitant to provoke Trump or challenge U.S. actions.
• “It’s unbelievable that one country just invades another country and captures the leader and nobody really blinks an eye.” – Listener comment highlighted at (38:45)
• Trump’s move may inadvertently drive weaker countries to seek “nuclear insurance” (38:45)—risking proliferation and global insecurity.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Absolute Surprise:
  “He managed to catch him… the US seemed to have switched off electricity, took out the air defenses, flew in helicopters… extracting Maduro… The big question is, is this remotely legal?” – Rory (03:09)

• On U.S. Legality:
  “No international law that he’s going to kind of put this through the lens of… There has been no contact with the United Nations.” – Alastair (05:01)

• Spectacle & Trump Doctrine:
  “He even said at one point… some people are now calling it the Donro Doctrine, you know, bringing himself right into the heart of it.” – Alastair (08:00)

• Dangers of Weak Planning:
  “The question is, what then happens? Grossly irresponsible…we have to find a way of balancing three different things… what’s the future of Venezuela after the removal of Maduro?” – Rory (09:48)

• Historical Parallels:
  “Panama is tiny compared to Venezuela…there are 8 million living outside, oil infrastructure is destroyed, electricity destroyed…” – Rory (14:19)

• Oil Admission:
  “Trump is very close to saying it’s all about the oil. And he was basically saying that, you know, he actually said at one point… it’s pathetic how much they’ve been pumping.” – Alastair (25:58)

• Chilling Precedent:
  “What he has done here, essentially, to say, I don’t like this regime and I don’t like this leader, so I’m just toppling him, could be exactly done by China against Taiwan, Russia against Zelensky…” – Rory (31:06)

• On U.S. Allies’ Anxiety:
  “If you’re the Danish prime minister looking at this…if they can do this, Greenland’s a piece of cake for them.” – Alastair (39:56)

• Spectacle over Substance:
  “Maybe this is me going too far here, but there’s an element of it that just seems childish. When I see Hegseth and Vance celebrating this, they seem like children.” – Rory (46:00)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Operation Breakdown & Legality: 01:55 – 07:00
• Doctrine, Oil, and U.S. Intentions: 08:00 – 09:48, 25:58 – 29:44
• What Next for Venezuela?: 09:48 –18:33, 13:32 – 18:33
• International Response & Ramifications: 22:19 – 25:58, 38:45 – 41:26, 46:00 – 47:51
• Trump’s Political Psychology & Comparative Analysis: 35:37 – 38:45, 43:26 – 44:28, 49:01
• Listener Questions & Final Reflections: 50:58 – End

Closing Thoughts

The episode closes on the note that America's daring, potentially reckless operation has left Venezuela in political limbo and the global community on edge. Both hosts agree this event’s echoes will last for years—testing international law, U.S. alliances, and the very notion of the liberal order.

Alastair:
“I think this could have broader consequences that we’ll be talking about for some time to come.” (54:48)

For deeper dives:

• On-the-ground insight from Latin American officials
• Think tank war-gaming around Venezuela’s future
• Ongoing analysis of global leaders’ measured, anxious responses

Summary by The Rest Is Politics Podcast Summarizer