The Rest Is Politics – Ep. 486

Does Maduro’s Capture Put Greenland at Risk?

Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Location: Chisinau, Moldova

Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart examine seismic shifts in international politics. They begin by analyzing Donald Trump’s dramatic abduction of Venezuelan leader Maduro and the performative spectacle surrounding it. The focus then shifts to the alarming possibility that Trump might move on Greenland, testing Western alliances and the rule of law. The second half moves to Europe, focusing on Moldova’s struggle for sovereignty, threats from Russia, and the precarious state of the Western-led world order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Maduro Operation: Shifting Global Norms

(03:01–15:30)

• The hosts reflect on the fallout from the U.S.-led abduction of Venezuela’s President Maduro, the theatrical display accompanying it, and what it signals about Trump's leadership style.
• Rory Stewart highlights the operation's performative aspects:

  “Every single step of the way, being filmed…shackled, legs and hands, all of which…is purely for camera.” (04:15)

• Campbell questions the legality and spectacle, comparing it to historical strongmen:

  “Trump is almost the first person since Genghis Khan to say, I’m just going to help myself to territory.” (00:09; 13:19)

• They note that the U.S. is sending a message of power, dismissing traditional legal grounds for intervention:

  “He was not talking about democracy. He was basically saying, when Trump says he needs Greenland for American security in the Arctic, then that is what he means and they’re going to do something about it.” (06:46, Stewart)

2. Greenland as the Next Target

(15:30–24:00)

• Trump’s repeated interest in acquiring Greenland is discussed as a serious threat, not simply media bravado.
• Stephen Miller’s interview with Jake Tapper is dissected:

  “We are a superpower. We will behave like a superpower. We will assert American interests without apology.” (07:35, Stewart quoting Miller)

• Campbell: Points out Denmark’s difficult position as a small NATO ally and Trump's performative politics:

  “It’s almost irresistible for him...to add to the United States the largest single bit of territory since it took Alaska.” (06:15, Campbell)

3. The Playbook: Rolling the Pitch and Hybrid Disruption

(09:58–14:10)

• Stewart likens the U.S. rhetoric to "rolling the pitch" for intervention, building a narrative for invasion, similar to Putin’s tactics.

  “It’s giving reasons for actions that you may already have decided to take.” (10:00, Stewart)

• Campbell describes U.S. intelligence stirring separatism in Greenland as a hybrid tactic.

  “Classic hybrid warfare disruption. Get the independence movement going so that you then say, we’re intervening for the rights of indigenous people.” (12:19)

4. The Erosion of Legal and Normative Restraints

(13:28–15:31)

• The hosts highlight how Trump’s administration ignores established pretexts for intervention, rejecting even the façade of legality:

  “He doesn’t even really bother that much with legal arguments...Trump is almost the first person since Genghis Khan...” (13:19, Campbell)

5. Domestic Politics: The Economic Distraction

(15:31–18:27)

• They explore how foreign adventurism diverts attention from domestic trouble—echoing past patterns.

  “It’s just a gigantic distraction, but it is serious...He is serious about what he’s doing. But it is also having that political effect.” (16:52, Stewart)

• They discuss polling on economic hardship in the U.S., connecting public policy and foreign adventure.

6. Western Response: Europe's Dilemma

(19:29–24:01)

• European leaders’ muted criticism is scrutinized; the U.S. is irreplaceable in supporting Ukraine, so confrontation over Greenland is suppressed for pragmatic reasons.

  “Most of them...can’t say the things that we say.” (21:57, Campbell)

• Highlight Donald Tusk's warning:

  “No one will take seriously a weak and divided Europe, neither enemy nor ally...we are finished.” (23:08, Stewart quoting Tusk)

7. Venezuela After Maduro: Who is Really in Charge?

(24:05–28:10)

• Despite Maduro’s removal, power structures remain. The real legacy: “Maduro light”—the same regime minus its figurehead.

  “They get Maduro light. And the idea is the United States running it...just means the US keeps a lot of troops off the border and runs it by threatening to abduct any future leader...” (25:13, Campbell)

• The unpredictability of both Trump and the generational loyalty of Venezuelan military figures is discussed.

8. Russia’s Takeaway: The Moldova Context

(28:13–45:39)

• “If you are Vladimir Putin, what’s to stop you abducting the president of Armenia or a Georgian opposition leader in exactly the same way?” (28:30, Campbell)
• Moldova is presented as a microcosm of big-power rule-breaking, its future tied to European engagement and the West’s project of law and order.

Moldova’s Precarious Place

(29:28–41:20)

• Historical complexity, threats from Russia, and the fragility of pro-Western reform under President Maia Sandu.

  “It’s a country with a very, very contested national story...” (30:35, Campbell)

• Moldova’s dependence on European integration and the implicit threat if it fails.

  “If Europe fumbles this and doesn’t take Moldova into the European Union, Moldova will naturally go back into a sphere of Russian influence.” (33:42, Campbell)

The Battle with Disinformation and Corruption

(37:07–41:20)

• Russian hybrid tactics, disinformation, and financial interference in Moldovan politics:

  “With her own party spending a few hundred thousand euros, or a million at most... Russians with an entire unit based out of the Kremlin...buying mayors, paying money...creating fake websites.” (39:27, Campbell & Stewart)

• The resilience and incorruptibility of President Sandu are praised.

9. The Proliferation of Power Politics: Armenia, Georgia, and Beyond

(41:20–43:15)

• Europe’s missed opportunities in Georgia; Armenia is now exposed. The normalization of big-power impunity:

  “If we get to a world where basically the big countries can do what the hell they want...we really are going back not just years, but centuries in terms of how the world is run.” (42:53, Stewart)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Alastair Campbell:

  “Trump is almost the first person since Genghis Khan to say, I’m just going to help myself to territory.” (00:09; 13:19)

• Rory Stewart:

  “No one will take seriously a weak and divided Europe, neither enemy nor ally...otherwise, we are finished.” (23:08 quoting Tusk) “If we get to a world where basically the big countries can do what the hell they want, international law doesn’t matter...then we really are going back not just years, but centuries in terms of how the world is run.” (42:53)

• Stephen Miller (quoted):

  “We are a superpower. We will behave like a superpower. We will assert American interests without apology.” (07:35)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:09–01:55 – Opening context, parallels to historical power grabs
• 03:01–07:35 – The spectacle and narrative around Maduro’s abduction
• 07:35–15:31 – Greenland discourse, Miller’s interview, and the U.S. as a "superpower"
• 15:31–19:29 – Domestic economic struggles in the U.S., foreign distraction
• 19:29–24:01 – European leaders’ dilemma, quote from Tusk
• 24:05–28:10 – Venezuelan regime post-Maduro
• 28:13–29:28 – Putin’s potential implications, transition to Moldova
• 29:28–34:13 – Moldova’s history and European fate
• 37:07–41:20 – Russian interference, disinformation and Sandu’s resilience
• 41:20–43:15 – Power politics in the former Soviet region
• 45:39–46:58 – Final thoughts: need for European idealism and unity

Tone & Language

• The tone is urgent, informed, and conversational, with clear frustration at the erosion of international norms.
• Campbell uses sharp analogies (e.g. Genghis Khan), while Stewart adopts a calm, reflective style, probing the strategic implications and historical context.
• Occasional humor and references to their Moldovan setting add humanity and a personal touch.

Conclusion

This episode is a comprehensive, nuanced conversation that links Trump’s unprecedented foreign policy flamboyance and disregard for legal norms to the weakening of the international order. The potential move on Greenland is dissected as both distraction and dangerous reality. The conversation then sharply pivots to Europe’s fraught eastern front, with Moldova’s fate and Russia’s opportunism as focal points of larger global trends. The episode closes with a call for Western vision, courage, and unity in the face of resurgent power politics.