The Rest Is Politics – Episode 488: "Is Iran on the Edge of Revolution?"

Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: January 13, 2026

Episode Overview

In this in-depth episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart turn their analytical lens towards the Middle East, focusing primarily on the explosive situation unfolding in Iran amidst widespread protests and a deepening government crackdown. The discussion covers the causes, scale, potential outcomes, and historical context of the Iranian unrest. The hosts also briefly pivot to geopolitical dynamics in Yemen, and touch on global competition in the Arctic, weaving together threads of revolution, power shifts, and the unpredictable nature of global affairs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Iran in Turmoil

• Background to Protests:
  • Sparked by surging gas prices, currency collapse, and a bank governor's resignation (03:37).
  • Escalation: By January 6, over 200 protests across nearly all Iranian provinces.
  • Violent crackdown by the regime, including blackouts and lethal force (03:37).
  • International dimension: Donald Trump threatens military intervention if repression continues.
  • Emergence of the exiled Crown Prince as a protest symbol among Iranian youth.

Quote:
“These regimes are completely secure, totally in place, until in an instant they suddenly aren’t.”
— Rory Stewart (09:41)

2. Uncertainty of Regime Change

• Historical Precedents: The Iranian regime has withstood several prior protest waves:
  • 1999, 2005, 2009 (Green Revolution), and the Mahsa Amini protests (2022-23).
  • Each time, outsiders predicted imminent collapse, but the regime endured.
• Current Differences:
  • Economic despair felt across classes.
  • New strategies involving public calls for defections and high-profile interventions by exiles.
  • Military strength diminished under pressure from US/Israeli actions and sanctions, but repression remains formidable (06:13).

Quote:
“This will only lead to regime change and the collapse of the regime if it goes on for months and months and months.”
— Alastair Campbell (08:38)

3. Anatomy of Regime Stability & Collapse

• Comparative Analysis: Soviet block revolutions, Assad’s endurance, Gorbachev/Yeltsin, Indonesia’s Suharto—a recurring theme:

  • Regimes appear solid until a tipping point triggers rapid unraveling.
  • Iran differs due to a hardcore, ideologically driven clergy and Revolutionary Guard (09:45).
  • Possible army defections could be decisive; traditionally less ideologically motivated than the Revolutionary Guard or Basij militia.

• Technology & Information Control:

  • Iranian regime adeptly curtails internet access to disadvantage protesters, but retains digital channels for propaganda.
  • Misinformation and competing narratives complicate outside assessments.

Quote:
“They’re pretty good…at shutting down the Internet insofar as it helps the protesters, but keeping the Internet open insofar as it helps them.”
— Alastair Campbell (12:05)

4. Social Dynamics & Protest Demographics

• Class divisions historically hinder united opposition:

  • Urban vs. rural split remains significant; regime maintains support via rural development and nationalism (15:51).

• This time, there are signs of broader participation:

  • Youth, working class, older generations, and intellectuals found in protests (18:28).

• National Pride: External interventions (e.g., from US, Israel, exile elites) do not always translate into domestic support.

• Role of Exiled Crown Prince:

  • He gains traction via social media, calls for coordinated protest, and a public stance as a "bridge to democracy."

Quote:
“It’s so hard to oppose from within. There are presumably a lot of opposition people in prison…very, very hard to organize.”
— Alastair Campbell (14:46)

5. The Trump Factor & International Intervention

• Trump’s and Netanyahu’s rhetoric (and threats of force) complicate progressive solidarity with Iranian protesters (12:40).
• Debate on whether US military intervention would simply result in "regime decapitation" with little structural change (21:01).
• Uncertainty about external actors’ true intentions or plans for post-regime Iran.

6. Information Blackout and Reliability

• Difficulty in gauging on-the-ground reality due to regime-induced blackouts, propaganda, and echo chambers abroad (24:57).
• Acknowledgement that assessments of defections and regime cracks are highly speculative.

Quote:
“Because of the media blackout, it is unbelievably difficult to know what’s actually going on on the ground.”
— Rory Stewart (24:57)

Important Timestamps & Memorable Moments

• [03:37] – Rory outlines how inflation, currency collapse, and leadership resignations sparked Iran’s nationwide protests.
• [08:38] – Alastair sets a cautious tone on predictions of regime change.
• [09:41] – Rory draws parallels to sudden collapses of seemingly stable regimes in history.
• [12:05] – Alastair explains the regime's sophisticated internet control strategy.
• [15:51] – Rory shares a personal account from walking across Iran and observing class divides.
• [18:28] – Alastair notes broader demographics in current protests versus previous, more fragmented uprisings.
• [21:01] – Rory questions whether US (Trumpian) intervention would actually foster positive change.
• [23:59] – Rory admits underestimating the exiled Crown Prince as a protest figurehead.
• [24:57] – Both hosts urge skepticism on media reports from Iran due to information blackouts.

Yemen and Wider Regional Power Plays

Yemen's Ongoing Crisis (from [26:25])

• Conflict Reprise: Quick history of Yemen’s division, civil war, and the Saudi/UAE intervention.
• Recent Shifts: Unexpected splits between UAE- and Saudi-backed southern factions.
• Geopolitical Complications: Proxy conflicts mirror broader Saudi-Emirati rivalry, as also seen in Sudan.

Quote:
“…Mohammed bin Salman is really presenting himself as…a force for stability. They’re trying to say the Emiratis are reckless, dangerous…”
— Rory Stewart (33:30)

Arctic Power Competition (from [34:57])

• Book Recommendation: Kenneth R. Rosenberg’s “Polar War” highlights Russian and Chinese advances in the Arctic and US strategic neglect.
• Summary: Russia’s military and logistical dominance in the Arctic outpaces US and allies.
• Geopolitics: Trump administration’s performative interest in Greenland masks underlying US disengagement.
• Security Implications: The battle for mineral wealth and control over shipping lanes intensifies.

Notable Quotes

• “These regimes are completely secure, totally in place, until in an instant they suddenly aren’t.” — Rory Stewart (09:41)
• “This will only lead to regime change and the collapse of the regime if it goes on for months and months and months.” — Alastair Campbell (08:38)
• “They’re pretty good…at shutting down the Internet insofar as it helps the protesters, but keeping the Internet open insofar as it helps them.” — Alastair Campbell (12:05)
• “…because of the media blackout, it is unbelievably difficult to know what’s actually going on on the ground.” — Rory Stewart (24:57)

Tone and Style

The episode is marked by an informed but cautious tone, with consistent reminders of both the limits of foreign observation and the unpredictability of seismic political change. The hosts disagree agreeably—Rory often drawing on historical parallels and personal experience, Alastair balancing left-wing skepticism about Western intervention with ethical clarity about the regime’s brutality.

For Listeners: Key Takeaways

• Iran faces its most serious challenge in years, but historic precedent and the regime’s ruthlessness urge caution in predicting its rapid collapse.
• A new generational alignment and broader protest base offer the possibility of genuine transformation—if repression fails or fracture within the security forces occurs.
• Information from inside Iran is scarce and contested; outside projections should be doubly scrutinized.
• Broader Middle Eastern dynamics remain in flux, particularly in Yemen and the evolving Saudi-UAE rivalry.
• Simultaneously, global power competition is intensifying in less-watched theaters, such as the Arctic, where strategic neglect may have profound consequences.

This summary was curated to provide a comprehensive, timestamped overview for those who have not listened to the episode. It captures the thematic breadth, conversational style, and key arguments of The Rest Is Politics, episode 488.