The Rest Is Politics – Episode 490

Title: Trump’s Greenland Ultimatum: What Next?
Date: January 21, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

This episode dives headfirst into the extraordinary geopolitical crisis triggered by former president Donald Trump's dramatic ultimatum over Greenland. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, recording from the World Economic Forum at Davos, dedicate the entire discussion to analyzing Trump’s demand for “complete and total control of 98% of Danish territory,” the fallout for NATO, the EU, and world order, and the wider implications for political leadership and sovereignty on both sides of the Atlantic. The hosts also debate the roles of Britain, Europe, and the global community, exposing the deeper threads of performance, power dynamics, and the new rules of global politics under Trump’s unprecedented style.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Greenland Ultimatum: Trump’s Move and Its Meaning

[02:59–05:11]

• Trump has escalated from publicly musing about “buying Greenland” to outright demanding control over it and threatening aggressive tariffs on European economies until Denmark concedes.
• The US is leveraging military, economic, and political power to pressure Denmark and its NATO allies, with NATO deployments near Greenland heightening tensions.
• The hosts highlight that Trump’s actions play into Vladimir Putin’s ideal strategy, destabilizing NATO through division and aggression.

  “It is absolutely terrifying. And it is a sort of Putin wet dream that's unfolding.” — Alastair Campbell [00:37]

2. Dividing Europe: The Trade and Security Fronts

[03:44–04:50]

• Trump’s tariff threats target not only Denmark but also key NATO and EU members—UK, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands—likely as a divide-and-rule tactic.
• The inclusion of Sweden and Finland is debated, possibly as retribution for their recent NATO accession, possibly at Putin’s behest.
• Rory Stewart underscores the magnitude:

  “If the Russian external intelligence service tried to plan out their dream scenario for how to destroy the Western alliance ... they could not have come up with a better plan than this.” — Rory Stewart [04:22]

3. Reality TV Presidency: Escalation and Power Performance

[07:36–09:20]

• The “logic of reality TV” requires Trump to create ever-bigger global dramas for attention—Greenland is his latest, with performance and humiliation center stage.
• Trump's second term is marked by a more ideologically aligned and loyal inner circle, making him more unpredictable and dangerous.
• Campbell puts it bluntly:

  “He’s the most powerful person right now. He’s more powerful than anybody’s ever been in the history of the world.” — Alastair Campbell [00:20 & 07:01]

4. The Board of Peace: A New “UN” for Trump’s Friends

[10:32–13:43]

• Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ostensibly for the Israel-Gaza crisis, is now a pay-to-play club for handpicked countries (including Russia and Belarus), used to bypass international law and punish dissenters like France with new tariffs.
• Tony Blair is discussed as a potential figure lending legitimacy to this dystopian project, but both hosts express skepticism.
• Macron’s resistance results in direct economic retaliation, underlining Trump’s contempt for multilateral norms.

5. Sovereignty, History, and Hypocrisy: The Greenland Context

[15:01–18:33]

• Stewart recounts the long-standing and widely respected status of Greenland as Danish territory, with echoes of the UK’s support and historical treaties (e.g., Congress of Vienna).
• What sets this apart from past US interventions such as Venezuela is that Denmark is a close NATO ally, making the invasion an existential threat to the alliance itself.
• The hosts point to Trump’s selective reading of history and manipulation of sovereignty for expediency.

6. European Responses: Between Appeasement and Retaliation

[25:03–27:35]

• Macron considers invoking the EU’s anti-coercion “trade bazooka”—potentially banning US corporations—though the economic fallout could harm Europe more than America.
• Keir Starmer (UK PM) initially condemns Trump but appears to be hedging toward appeasement, especially concerning UK sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, prompting concern from both hosts.
• Rory Stewart frames Starmer’s posture as “appeasement,” drawing parallels to dangerous historical precedents.

7. The Dilemma of Dependency: Technology, Security, and Trident

[29:16–32:26]

• Europe’s and the UK’s defense systems (including Trident) and digital infrastructure are deeply dependent on the US—making resistance risky and limiting independent action.
• JD Vance’s alarming recent statements cast both UK and France as potential nuclear risks due to supposed “Islamist adjacent” leadership, hinting the US could withhold critical support.

8. Appeasement vs. Resistance: Weighing the Strategies

[33:51–35:30]

• The theoretical logic of appeasement breaks down if the aggressor’s demands (here, Trump’s) are performative, unbounded, and ever-escalating.
• “Every concession you make weakens your hand for the future and encourages him to do more.” — Rory Stewart [35:09]
• Campbell and Stewart debate whether Europe can or should credibly threaten hard power retaliation—or switch to soft power moves, such as blocking the US from hosting the FIFA World Cup.

9. The Options: Waiting, Gold Statues, and Holding the Line

[47:17–51:29]

• Stewart outlines three possible Western strategies:
  1. Wait it out – Hope Congress, courts, or US allies rein in Trump.
  2. The “Gulf Strategy” – Appease Trump with personal flattery and economic deals (statues, naming rights, investment pledges).
  3. Firm resistance – Public rejection of the ultimatum, unified by Canada, the EU, and UK, even if it means enduring sanctions and economic pain.
• Stewart argues for the third course, warning that handovers (like Greenland) only embolden further demands.

  “Once Trump begins to feel, ‘Oh, I'd like a few hundred billion dollars of minerals, thank you very much,’...there is literally no limit.” — Rory Stewart [42:09]

10. Psychological Warfare and the Power of Media

[46:29–55:18]

• Trump’s performance relies on exploiting the speed and reach of modern media, dominating the global narrative and keeping himself the perpetual subject.
• Campbell notes, “Trump's genius is that he has better than anybody understood the way that technological change and media change has completely changed the rules of politics and diplomacy.” [54:19]

11. Consequences for Europe and the Rules-Based Order

[57:23–60:59]

• Trump’s aggression has exposed fundamental weaknesses in Europe’s autonomy and the fragility of the liberal order, making plain the danger of over-dependence on an unpredictable US.
• The targets of Trump’s agenda—sovereignty, international law, and multilateralism—are under existential threat.
• Stewart:

  “His entrepreneurial genius is to discover that you can torment and abuse your allies far more effectively than you can your enemies.” [58:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fear Factor:
  “It is absolutely terrifying. And it is a sort of Putin wet dream that's unfolding.”
  — Alastair Campbell [00:37]

• On the New World Order:
  “The Board of Peace is saying, there's a new world order creating it and I am going to run it.”
  — Alastair Campbell [12:35]

• On Appeasement:
  “Every concession you make weakens your hand for the future and encourages him to do more.”
  — Rory Stewart [35:09]

• On Europe's Choices:
  “Europe has got to be strengthened, and Europe has been fundamentally weakened by our departure, and we've got to be part of its restraint.”
  — Alastair Campbell [62:21]

• On Trump’s Style:
  “His objective is to make a huge performance of cruelty, humiliation and bullying.”
  — Rory Stewart [25:02]

• On Media Manipulation:
  “Trump's genius is that he has better than anybody understood the way that technological change and media change has completely changed the rules of politics and diplomacy.”
  — Alastair Campbell [54:19]

Key Segment Timestamps

• Greenland ultimatum and global context: [02:59–05:11]
• The Board of Peace and international retaliation: [10:32–13:43]
• Historical background of Greenland and Denmark: [17:01–18:33]
• UK, Europe and responses—Macron and Starmer: [25:03–27:35]
• Dependency Dilemma—tech and Trident: [29:16–32:26]
• Debate on appeasement, resistance, and Western strategy: [33:51–35:30], [47:17–51:29], [58:37–62:21]

Conclusion – Where Next?

Trump’s Greenland ultimatum is a watershed, testing NATO to its core and showing how performative power politics, media manipulation, and disruption can destabilize the very foundations of the Western order. Campbell and Stewart’s analysis warns that traditional “rules-based” responses are insufficient against such tactics, and calls for renewed Western unity, resilience, and adaptation to a transformed global landscape—while recognizing the gravity of Europe’s vulnerability and America’s internal contradictions. The episode ends with a frank acknowledgment that events are moving so fast, and are so unprecedented, that the old rulebooks may be useless.

(This summary skips all ad breaks and non-political content as requested.)