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490. Trump’s Greenland Ultimatum: What Next? - The Rest Is Politics | Wave AI Podcast Notes

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490. Trump’s Greenland Ultimatum: What Next?

The Rest Is Politics

Wed Jan 21 2026

Summary

The Rest Is Politics – Episode 490

Title: Trump’s Greenland Ultimatum: What Next?
Date: January 21, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

This episode dives headfirst into the extraordinary geopolitical crisis triggered by former president Donald Trump's dramatic ultimatum over Greenland. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, recording from the World Economic Forum at Davos, dedicate the entire discussion to analyzing Trump’s demand for “complete and total control of 98% of Danish territory,” the fallout for NATO, the EU, and world order, and the wider implications for political leadership and sovereignty on both sides of the Atlantic. The hosts also debate the roles of Britain, Europe, and the global community, exposing the deeper threads of performance, power dynamics, and the new rules of global politics under Trump’s unprecedented style.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Greenland Ultimatum: Trump’s Move and Its Meaning

[02:59–05:11]

Trump has escalated from publicly musing about “buying Greenland” to outright demanding control over it and threatening aggressive tariffs on European economies until Denmark concedes.
The US is leveraging military, economic, and political power to pressure Denmark and its NATO allies, with NATO deployments near Greenland heightening tensions.
The hosts highlight that Trump’s actions play into Vladimir Putin’s ideal strategy, destabilizing NATO through division and aggression.

“It is absolutely terrifying. And it is a sort of Putin wet dream that's unfolding.” — Alastair Campbell [00:37]

2. Dividing Europe: The Trade and Security Fronts

[03:44–04:50]

Trump’s tariff threats target not only Denmark but also key NATO and EU members—UK, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands—likely as a divide-and-rule tactic.
The inclusion of Sweden and Finland is debated, possibly as retribution for their recent NATO accession, possibly at Putin’s behest.
Rory Stewart underscores the magnitude:

“If the Russian external intelligence service tried to plan out their dream scenario for how to destroy the Western alliance ... they could not have come up with a better plan than this.” — Rory Stewart [04:22]

3. Reality TV Presidency: Escalation and Power Performance

[07:36–09:20]

The “logic of reality TV” requires Trump to create ever-bigger global dramas for attention—Greenland is his latest, with performance and humiliation center stage.
Trump's second term is marked by a more ideologically aligned and loyal inner circle, making him more unpredictable and dangerous.
Campbell puts it bluntly:

“He’s the most powerful person right now. He’s more powerful than anybody’s ever been in the history of the world.” — Alastair Campbell [00:20 & 07:01]

4. The Board of Peace: A New “UN” for Trump’s Friends

[10:32–13:43]

Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ostensibly for the Israel-Gaza crisis, is now a pay-to-play club for handpicked countries (including Russia and Belarus), used to bypass international law and punish dissenters like France with new tariffs.
Tony Blair is discussed as a potential figure lending legitimacy to this dystopian project, but both hosts express skepticism.
Macron’s resistance results in direct economic retaliation, underlining Trump’s contempt for multilateral norms.

5. Sovereignty, History, and Hypocrisy: The Greenland Context

[15:01–18:33]

Stewart recounts the long-standing and widely respected status of Greenland as Danish territory, with echoes of the UK’s support and historical treaties (e.g., Congress of Vienna).
What sets this apart from past US interventions such as Venezuela is that Denmark is a close NATO ally, making the invasion an existential threat to the alliance itself.
The hosts point to Trump’s selective reading of history and manipulation of sovereignty for expediency.

6. European Responses: Between Appeasement and Retaliation

[25:03–27:35]

Macron considers invoking the EU’s anti-coercion “trade bazooka”—potentially banning US corporations—though the economic fallout could harm Europe more than America.
Keir Starmer (UK PM) initially condemns Trump but appears to be hedging toward appeasement, especially concerning UK sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, prompting concern from both hosts.
Rory Stewart frames Starmer’s posture as “appeasement,” drawing parallels to dangerous historical precedents.

7. The Dilemma of Dependency: Technology, Security, and Trident

[29:16–32:26]

Europe’s and the UK’s defense systems (including Trident) and digital infrastructure are deeply dependent on the US—making resistance risky and limiting independent action.
JD Vance’s alarming recent statements cast both UK and France as potential nuclear risks due to supposed “Islamist adjacent” leadership, hinting the US could withhold critical support.

8. Appeasement vs. Resistance: Weighing the Strategies

[33:51–35:30]

The theoretical logic of appeasement breaks down if the aggressor’s demands (here, Trump’s) are performative, unbounded, and ever-escalating.
“Every concession you make weakens your hand for the future and encourages him to do more.” — Rory Stewart [35:09]
Campbell and Stewart debate whether Europe can or should credibly threaten hard power retaliation—or switch to soft power moves, such as blocking the US from hosting the FIFA World Cup.

9. The Options: Waiting, Gold Statues, and Holding the Line

[47:17–51:29]

Stewart outlines three possible Western strategies:
1. Wait it out – Hope Congress, courts, or US allies rein in Trump.
2. The “Gulf Strategy” – Appease Trump with personal flattery and economic deals (statues, naming rights, investment pledges).
3. Firm resistance – Public rejection of the ultimatum, unified by Canada, the EU, and UK, even if it means enduring sanctions and economic pain.
Stewart argues for the third course, warning that handovers (like Greenland) only embolden further demands.

“Once Trump begins to feel, ‘Oh, I'd like a few hundred billion dollars of minerals, thank you very much,’...there is literally no limit.” — Rory Stewart [42:09]

10. Psychological Warfare and the Power of Media

[46:29–55:18]

Trump’s performance relies on exploiting the speed and reach of modern media, dominating the global narrative and keeping himself the perpetual subject.
Campbell notes, “Trump's genius is that he has better than anybody understood the way that technological change and media change has completely changed the rules of politics and diplomacy.” [54:19]

11. Consequences for Europe and the Rules-Based Order

[57:23–60:59]

Trump’s aggression has exposed fundamental weaknesses in Europe’s autonomy and the fragility of the liberal order, making plain the danger of over-dependence on an unpredictable US.
The targets of Trump’s agenda—sovereignty, international law, and multilateralism—are under existential threat.
Stewart:

“His entrepreneurial genius is to discover that you can torment and abuse your allies far more effectively than you can your enemies.” [58:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the Fear Factor:
“It is absolutely terrifying. And it is a sort of Putin wet dream that's unfolding.”
— Alastair Campbell [00:37]
On the New World Order:
“The Board of Peace is saying, there's a new world order creating it and I am going to run it.”
— Alastair Campbell [12:35]
On Appeasement:
“Every concession you make weakens your hand for the future and encourages him to do more.”
— Rory Stewart [35:09]
On Europe's Choices:
“Europe has got to be strengthened, and Europe has been fundamentally weakened by our departure, and we've got to be part of its restraint.”
— Alastair Campbell [62:21]
On Trump’s Style:
“His objective is to make a huge performance of cruelty, humiliation and bullying.”
— Rory Stewart [25:02]
On Media Manipulation:
“Trump's genius is that he has better than anybody understood the way that technological change and media change has completely changed the rules of politics and diplomacy.”
— Alastair Campbell [54:19]

Key Segment Timestamps

Greenland ultimatum and global context: [02:59–05:11]
The Board of Peace and international retaliation: [10:32–13:43]
Historical background of Greenland and Denmark: [17:01–18:33]
UK, Europe and responses—Macron and Starmer: [25:03–27:35]
Dependency Dilemma—tech and Trident: [29:16–32:26]
Debate on appeasement, resistance, and Western strategy: [33:51–35:30], [47:17–51:29], [58:37–62:21]

Conclusion – Where Next?

Trump’s Greenland ultimatum is a watershed, testing NATO to its core and showing how performative power politics, media manipulation, and disruption can destabilize the very foundations of the Western order. Campbell and Stewart’s analysis warns that traditional “rules-based” responses are insufficient against such tactics, and calls for renewed Western unity, resilience, and adaptation to a transformed global landscape—while recognizing the gravity of Europe’s vulnerability and America’s internal contradictions. The episode ends with a frank acknowledgment that events are moving so fast, and are so unprecedented, that the old rulebooks may be useless.

(This summary skips all ad breaks and non-political content as requested.)

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Transcript

Alistair Campbell (0:00)

Thanks for listening to the rest is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com.

Rory Stewart (0:09)

That'S therestispolitics.com he's announced that he will have complete and total control of 98% of Danish territory by May, and he will ramp up tariffs until they hand it over.

Alistair Campbell (0:20)

He's the most powerful person right now. He's more powerful than anybody's ever been in the history of the world.

Rory Stewart (0:25)

His objective is to make a huge performance of cruelty, humiliation and bullying. There is literally, if we actually say we're not sovereign, America can do whatever it wants whenever it wants and we.

Alistair Campbell (0:37)

Have no options to respond, it is absolutely terrifying. And it is a sort of Putin wet dream that's unfolding.

Rory Stewart (0:42)

The logic of reality TV requires Trump every week to create a bigger and bigger story.

Alistair Campbell (0:47)

And I've been saying that the ultimate reality TV show is nuclear war.

Rory Stewart (0:53)

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Alistair Campbell (0:56)

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Rory Stewart (15:01)

Lefty bedwetter? Yeah. There's a lovely moment in it where Boris, who was actually the Foreign Secretary when I was the African minister, says, what I can't believe is this guy was apparently briefly a junior minister in the Foreign Office. I can't imagine how he even got the job. Right. So he goes on like, and now we are seeing what this means. And what does it mean? Well, firstly, the US has now had with Trump an explicit statement that he wants, in his words, complete and total control of Greenland by May. Greenland is part of Denmark. It's 98% of the entire territory of Denmark. It is actually something that's been much more settled than many other countries in the world. I mean, Trump starts playing games about where boats landed a few hundred years ago. The fact is the British were backing Danish ownership of Greenland and the Congress of Vienna in the early 19th century. Right. If you're talking about international borders, Greenland is pretty established, but much more dramatic than that. And you move from Venezuela, and maybe this is where I'll finish and come back to you. Venezuela was a sign that Trump was flouting the United nations, flouting Congress, kidnapping the leader of another state on the most dubious legal grooms, and then leaving a brutal regime in place. He wasn't doing it to bring democracy, but Venezuela was not a NATO ally. What makes this completely different is that he's not just redrawing international borders. In other words, doing exactly what Putin did in Ukraine, which is to go into someone else's country and take their territory. He's doing it to one of his closest allies. He's doing it to Denmark. That was a huge troop contributor after 911 came with NATO behind the US lost more troops per capita than any other country supporting the US after the attacks on 9 11. And he's doing it right in the heart of NATO. He's saying, I'm doing it because Russia and China are a threat to NATO. But actually the first country to seize a NATO territory is the hegemon itself, the big linchpin of NATO.

Alistair Campbell (17:01)

The point about Russia is you made this point last week that if he really saw Russia as the threat, why is he being so helpful towards Putin in relation to Ukraine? And we can also add that now, if he sees Russia as a great threat, why is he inviting Vladimir Putin to join his fabled Board of Peace? So there's utter hypocrisy involved. And just on the history of this. So what he said was that just because they landed in a boat there 500 years ago doesn't mean they own it. Just to get brief, the story 1721, that a Danish Norwegian missionary landed on Greenland, and of course, this is how the world worked then. You land and you take land. This is now ours. Since when there's been this sort of evolving relationship, so that Greenland now does have a lot of its own powers, but it's very reliant on Denmark for money and also for its foreign policy. That's why Denmark is so involved in this debate. But I saw one of the most moving things I saw this week was an interview on Vice News with Per Stigmuller, who was the Danish foreign minister in 2004, which was the last time they reviewed the treaty between the United States and Denmark about Greenland, in which the United States have the right to put any amount of military that they want on Greenland, provided that they consult that they say to the Danes or to the Greenlanders, we think actually there's a real threat coming, therefore we want to do this. And he made the point that at its height, there were almost 18,000American troops on Greenland and there were 18American military bases. They, the Americans have reduced it from 18 to 1 and from 18,000 to 150. And as this guy said, I never asked them to leave. So Trump is creating this whole narrative that Denmark has relinquished any sort of serious security approach. It's the Americans who've done that. And he's now using that as an excuse basically, as you say, to blow up NATO, to rip up potentially to rip up this sort of traditional alliance between the United States and the whole of Europe. And you know what I think you mentioned there about the kind of rules base, I wonder if we haven't kidded ourselves that this world order, liberal rules based world order, that we've, because we felt that it's working for us. We haven't, maybe we've underestimated the extent that actually it's worked best for the Americans. Okay? But that's not enough for Trump. That is not enough for Trump. So what he's doing now, I think this is going to backfire spectacularly because I actually think ultimately we're seeing it already. This is going to push people towards the one superpower that he identifies as America's genuine enemy. He's behaving like Europe is the enemy. Okay, Europe is struggling. We'll talk about how Macron responded, about Starman's responding. They're struggling to know how to respond to this. But meanwhile, the Chinese are just sitting there watching it. And just one final point on that, the one thing that really brought that home to me this week, watching Mark Carney in Canada. So there's Mark Carney. Mark Carney was elected. He's a very, very clever guy and he's emerging as a very effective politician. But let's be frank. He knows he was elected because of Donald Trump, because Pierre Polievre was way ahead in the polls. Trump comes along with all his MAGA, 51st state madness, and that absolutely destroyed Polyevre because he was too close to Trump. Carney becomes the Prime Minister. Really clever guy, understands the way the world economy works, unlike Trump, who thinks it's just a sort of real estate deal. And Carney, without saying Trump's lost the plot, without saying that America is becoming a kind of a hostile force, rather he just goes to China and has this amazing meeting with Xi Jinping, at the end of which they do all sorts of deals that are going to benefit the Canadian economy.

Alistair Campbell (53:17)

The humiliation point is really interesting because remember when we talked to moises Naim, the 3Ps guy? Populism, polarization, post truth. They need 3C's crime to get elected. Play hard on crime, corruption, just run the whole thing like your own business. And there's Any third circumstances was cruelty. And there is a real element of cruelty to what's going on now. It's really interesting. I've met. I think I've met four Danes while I've been here, and they're in agony. They're in agony. You can see it talking to them. And you imagine being a Greenlander right now was 89% of them are indigenous, 85% have said they have no interest whatsoever in this happening. They're just going to want to be left alone and get on with their lives and embrace their culture and all the other stuff that they do. And they've suddenly become the Most talked about 55,000 people in the world and because of one man. And this goes back to the point I made at the end. I think we. You talked about Genghis Khan because of the way that the world has developed because of technology, because now the power of these American tech companies, he can spread it. Genghis Khan couldn't sort of put out a tweet and say, I'm going to do this and you lot are going to listen, and every broadcaster in the world is now going to be talking about me for the next 24 hours. And when you get bored with that, I'll give you something else to do. His genius, I'm afraid to say Trump's genius is that he has better than anybody understood the way that technological change and media change has completely changed the rules of politics and diplomacy. And too many of the others are absolutely still caught up in the old ways of doing things. They're now going to have to use the new ways of doing things to push back. Not by being a bully, not by being a liar, not by sort of saying corruption's the way to go. But they've got to understand this. And this is what pains me about watching Europe. I mean, Ursula von der Leyen is going to be speaking here today and Macron's coming a bit later and they'll make big speeches.