Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics, Episode 494

Title: Carney’s Trump Fightback and the Starmer-Burnham Fallout
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: January 28, 2026

Overview

In this episode of The Rest Is Politics, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart offer a deep-dive into the shifting dynamics of global power following Donald Trump’s recent confrontation over Greenland and Mark Carney's much-discussed Davos speech. The discussion explores the implications for the UK and Europe as traditional dependencies on the United States are challenged, and what the rise of so-called “middle powers” could mean for the future international order. The latter portion of the episode pivots to Labour Party turbulence, particularly focusing on the public fallout between Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham.

1. The Davos Aftershock: Trump, Greenland & Mark Carney’s Gambit

The Davos “Rupture”

• The hosts agree Davos 2026 marked a “world-shifting moment,” catalyzed by Trump’s aggressive demands over Greenland and Mark Carney’s authoritative response.
• Carney, now Canadian PM, issued a call for “middle powers” to assert greater influence and chart a path beyond heavy U.S. reliance, describing the present as “a rupture, not a transition” [03:06-03:44, 05:36-06:06].
• Campbell stresses that Carney’s phrase “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu”—already familiar to listeners from previous interviews—has become central to the emerging political lexicon [05:36-06:06].

Key Quote:

“This is a rupture, not a transition. If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”
— Alastair Campbell, quoting Mark Carney [06:00]

The “Middle Power” Moment

• The hosts debate what it would actually mean for the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Australia etc. to behave as true “middle powers.”
• Campbell offers wind farm cooperation as an example, referencing Ed Miliband’s recent multilateral deal in Hamburg, despite Trump’s disparagement of renewables at Davos [07:35-08:07].
• Both note that European leaders are quietly but firmly beginning to coordinate joint projects and lessening their defense reliance on the U.S.

Notable Moment:
Trump’s tirade against wind energy at Davos—15 minutes of “droning, dishonest riffing” that prompted laughter from supporters but frustration among allies [07:35-08:07].

Key Quote:

“Europe is the only one that can remotely embrace that [middle power] mantle, and from the UK’s point of view we have to get closer and undo the damage of Brexit as fast as we can.”
— Alastair Campbell [14:00-15:05]

2. Rethinking Dependencies: UK & Europe’s Strategic Dilemma

Can the UK “De-risk” from the U.S.?

• Rory Stewart role-plays a UK National Security Council (NSC) debate, highlighting anxieties and institutional inertia—generations of foreign policy elites are wedded to U.S. alignment since Suez [09:11-11:44].
• He outlines typical establishment objections: Europe is “fractured and pathetic,” China is untrustworthy, and Trump’s volatility is just temporary [09:11-11:44].
• Campbell rebuts that “appeasement” has emboldened Trump and driven deep vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the Greenland standoff and lack of movement on Ukraine [12:02-13:31].

Key Quote:

“We cannot stop pretending there is any way we’re going back to the status quo ante... this is a rupture, not a transition.”
— Alastair Campbell [12:02-13:30]

Appeasement’s Failure

• Stewart insists the British “optimism bias” and head-in-the-sand approach is dangerously outdated, noting that Canadian and European leaders are already planning for a world where America is not reliable [13:31-15:05].
• The hosts agree that post-Trumpism in the U.S.—even among Democrats—signals enduring retreat from global responsibility.

Key Quote:

“The world is fundamentally changed and it’s not just about Trump... that world’s gone.”
— Rory Stewart [15:05]

Spheres of Influence and Limits to Power

• Rory makes the case that technical survival without the U.S. is plausible—Britain and Europe have real assets and resilience—but disentangling is expensive and complex [29:23-30:14, 31:48-32:03].

3. Building a “Middle Power” Order: Opportunities & Obstacles

New Alliances?

• Both hosts muse on the need for a new, explicit “Board of Middle Power Prosperity,” noting the G20 and BRICS as precedents [24:18-26:31].
• France’s and Germany’s difficulties in past alliances are noted as cautionary tales, but ad hoc, issue-specific “G-x” groupings may be more successful [26:06-26:31].
• Campbell floats the idea of sub-national actors (e.g., California) joining such mid-tier groupings [26:31-26:39].

Key Quote:

“Imagine if they actually created a new grouping which was explicit: this is what they’re about... We’re going to have global summits about the environment and America and China won’t be there.”
— Alastair Campbell [24:18-26:06]

Trump's “Board of Peace” Flops

• Stewart outlines the debacle of Trump’s attempt to set up a rival to the United Nations—now left with only minor states and autocracies, as major European and middle powers rebuff participation after the Greenland crisis [26:39-27:45].

Memorable Moment:

“The chairman who decides everything is not the President of the United States, it is Donald Trump for life... Basically the whole thing has turned out to be a joke, a very, very, very expensive joke.”
— Rory Stewart [27:08-27:45]

Concrete Challenges: Money, Scale, and Priorities

• Stewart identifies three major hurdles: middle powers’ relative smallness; the need to shore up existing international institutions (UN, etc.); and the budgetary sacrifices required to develop independence in key areas like nuclear, cyber, and AI [20:42-23:34, 30:17-32:03].
• He insists on honesty with the public: “This is going to cost some money”—possibly £10–20 billion per year for the UK [30:17-32:03].

4. China, Starmer, and Divided Loyalties

Starmer’s Dilemma on China

• Campbell notes Starmer’s trip to China (first UK PM visit in 8 years), but argues engagement is necessary despite domestic and U.S.-led fears about Chinese intentions [32:03-33:17].
• Both hosts agree Britain is caught between U.S. security demands and economic opportunities with Beijing; Stewart argues Starmer must “pick a side” or risk being “pushed around by everybody” [34:00-36:03].
• The hosts touch on spying allegations around the new Chinese Embassy in London and note the difficulty of balancing security with diplomatic reality.

Key Quote:

“If he allows himself... to be stuck between Europe and the U.S. on all these issues, he’s not going to get the kind of deals Carney got out of China. He’ll end up in a muddle in the middle...”
— Rory Stewart [35:44-36:03]

5. The Starmer-Burnham Labour Fallout

Andy Burnham’s Blocked Candidacy

• Stewart prompts Campbell to explain the NEC’s decision to block Andy Burnham from a by-election candidacy in Manchester. Campbell admits fault on both sides: Burnham for openly maneuvering to challenge Starmer; Starmer’s team for failing to maintain a working relationship [41:30-43:39].
• Both hosts compare the situation to Boris Johnson’s return to Parliament while still Mayor of London. Stewart characterizes Labour's move as “control freakery,” while Campbell points to the risk of damaging Manchester loyalty and the “optics” for Starmer [43:39-45:55].

Key Quote:

“I think Andy’s weakened himself... if I was a voter in Manchester now, I’m sort of thinking this guy doesn’t actually want this job as much as he wanted another job.”
— Alastair Campbell [47:04-48:42]

• The discussion includes polling on whether Burnham should be allowed to stand, risks of a Reform or Green win in the by-election, and the wider sense of dysfunction in Labour ranks [48:42-56:11].
• Rory questions whether Starmer will actually lead Labour into the next election, noting an atmosphere of plotting likened to Theresa May’s final months as PM [56:11-57:37].

Labour’s Turbulent State

• Campbell admits to being “pretty down” about the government’s performance and Labour’s communications, even as he acknowledges there have been some foreign policy successes [58:09-58:26].
• The two agree public dissatisfaction is (dangerously) high, and internal unrest within Labour is growing.

6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Global Order and Leadership

• “The world is fundamentally changed. The US is becoming almost as much of a threat to the west as China.”
  — Rory Stewart [00:14]
• “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”
  — Mark Carney, quoted by Campbell [06:00]
• “Appeasement has emboldened Trump and driven deep vulnerabilities.”
  — Alastair Campbell [12:02-13:30]

On Labour’s Internal Turmoil

• “What on earth does he think he’s doing? Endlessly undermining the Prime Minister.”
  — Rory Stewart on Andy Burnham [49:21-50:18]
• “Abraham Lincoln famously brought in his opponents to build his team...I had no right to deprive the country of their services.”
  — Alastair Campbell, quoting Lincoln [54:00]

7. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Davos Fallout & Carney’s Speech: 03:04–07:35
• Wind Farms, Trump, and U.S./Europe Friction: 07:35–09:11
• UK Dependence on America—NSC Roleplay: 09:11–15:05
• Middle Power Strategies & Trump’s “Board of Peace”: 24:18–27:45
• China Dilemmas and Starmer’s Balancing Act: 32:03–36:35
• Andy Burnham & Labour Party Drama: 40:53–56:11
• Labour’s Prospects and Public Mood: 56:11–end

8. Tone and Style

The tone throughout is lively, sometimes biting, but always rooted in personal insight and mutual respect. Both hosts seamlessly blend policy wonkery with frank personal judgment, and sprinkle in vivid comparisons (Lincoln, Afghanistan, etc.) and inside-Baseball anecdotes from Westminster and world capitals.

Conclusion

This episode captures a turning point in world politics, with the hosts dissecting the fragile state of the transatlantic alliance and the UK’s scramble for agency. The conversation draws a vivid picture of a world where “middle powers” must step up, and where leaders like Carney and, potentially, Starmer, are tested by events. Labour’s own turmoil at home is painted with honesty, frustration, and, as always, the hosts’ trademark sharp wit.