The Rest Is Politics: "Is Trump Plotting Regime Change in Iran?" (Question Time)

Episode 497 | February 5, 2026 | Hosted by Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

In this Question Time edition, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart deliver a characteristically robust and engaging analysis of the intensifying crisis around Iran, exploring whether Donald Trump is truly plotting regime change, and unpacking the potential global fallout. The conversation then pivots to Hungary’s consequential election, and finally rounds off with a rapid-fire discussion of UK by-elections, American political swings, and a flurry of entertaining cultural recommendations.

1. Is Trump Plotting Regime Change in Iran? (01:15–24:36)

Context & Opening Question

• Listener question from Josh in Bradford: “How can the US credibly negotiate with Iran from a position of military escalation?” (01:15–01:58)
• The hosts frame the current crisis: Is America’s military buildup a deterrent, or is it risking a catastrophic conflict?

Iran’s Internal Turmoil

• Rory sets the scene: Mass protests, state violence, regime at risk.
  • “Since the Mahsa Amini demonstrations, for the first time, the middle class bazaaris, the working class, and the liberal groups have been out on the streets again and again.” (02:10)
  • “Almost nobody in Iran now doesn’t have a friend or a family member who’s been killed or injured.” (03:30)
• The Iranian regime is facing an unprecedented unity among opposition and popular anger.

The Trump Factor: Credible Threat or Reckless Gamble?

• Alastair highlights the US military buildup: “Donald Trump sends a big, beautiful armada... one of the biggest aircraft carriers... a real proper armada.” (04:17)
• Both hosts debate whether Trump intends to use force, or if this is posturing to extract concessions.
• Comparison to Venezuela: “Venezuela was a straightforward decapitation... I don’t think anybody can predict what would follow if they did inflict a catastrophic attack on Iran.” (04:47)

Risks & Regional Dynamics

• Iran’s formidable military: “This is not even Iraq. This is definitely not Venezuela. [Iran] has the capacity to provoke all sorts of problems within the region.” (05:41)
• US allies are wary: “America’s allies... have said, ‘we don’t want our airspace used’... but that would not mean Iranians wouldn’t see those bases as legitimate targets.” (06:20)

Reality TV or Grand Strategy?

• Rory reflects: “We’re back to the question of how you predict Trump… If it’s a reality TV show, what’s he tempted to do in Iran?” (06:39)
• Iran’s military and proxy forces are weaker, especially after setbacks in Lebanon and Syria, but it’s unclear if toppling the regime would improve regional stability: “Safer to leave it alone rather than start firing missiles around, because if it’s toppled, who knows what follows?” (07:46)

Strategic Chaos or Calculated Mischief?

• Alastair coins the term: “What’s really strange about Trump… is this phrase ‘strategic chaos’… Is there a plan at all? Or is it really just chaos?” (09:25)
• Trump could be pursuing (a) a new agreement; (b) regime change; (c) deliberate ambiguity. No one knows which.

Hawkish Thinking & History’s Lessons

• Rory on American hawks: “Nothing could be worse than this regime… They are implacably hostile toward the West and toward Israel, and that’s never going to change.” (10:44)
• He urges caution, recalling Iraq and Libya: “We thought getting rid of Gaddafi is a no-brainer... but what happened is civil war… horror, instability, and the collapse of democracy came out of toppling this.” (12:13)

Nuclear Domino Effect

• Alastair predicts wider nuclear proliferation:
  • “The only way you can actually look after yourself is genuinely to go for your own nuclear weapons program… Saudis are getting very close to Pakistan… Turkey is watching…” (13:13)
  • “The New START Treaty runs out this week… so basically, no international agreement, no limit.” (14:04)
• Nuclear arms race potential in Europe and Asia discussed: “Almost everybody who can afford it is incentivized to do it.” (15:19)

The Venezuela “Option” & Real Stakes for Iranians

• Discussion of “just remove the top guy” destabilizing logic versus the reality of Iran’s entrenched regime networks (17:10–18:00).
• Rory: “If we give an inch, we’re going to be strung up from the lamppost because everybody knows we have blood on our hands.” (18:40)
• Campbell: “The Revolutionary Guard… are also a massive business. They run large chunks of the economy… This is not remotely like Venezuela.” (19:23)
• Speculation on possible Trump motives—military strike for spectacle, regime decapitation, or simply keeping everyone on edge. (20:08)

Israel, the Gulf, and the Real Losers

• Rory floats the possibility: “Netanyahu mobilizes against Iran and strikes… There will never be an American administration more willing to allow Israel to strike Iran.” (22:18)
• The overlooked victims: “Iranians… are being treated as pawns in somebody else’s game… Probably playing Blind Man’s Bluff, and the people who end up losing are the Iranians themselves.” (23:18)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Almost nobody in Iran now doesn’t have a friend or family member who’s been killed or injured.” (Rory, 03:30)
• “Is there a plan at all? Or is it really just chaos?” (Alastair, 09:25)
• On hawkish U.S. policy: “Nothing could be worse than this regime… but that’s what we thought with Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.” (Rory, 10:44, 12:13)
• “The only way you can look after yourself is genuinely to go for your own nuclear weapons program.” (Alastair, 13:13)
• “Iranians… are being treated as pawns in somebody else’s game.” (Rory, 23:18)

2. Hungary’s High-Stakes Election: How World Leaders Meddle (27:02–36:37)

International Endorsements & Foreign Meddling

• Question from Vivian in Budapest: “When did it become okay for prime ministers and presidents to interfere in each other's elections?” (27:02)
• Orban’s campaign video is highlighted, featuring endorsements from Netanyahu, Le Pen, Milei, Meloni, Alice Weidel, and more. (28:15)
• Expectation that Trump’s endorsement is being “held back as the big bazooka.” (28:21)

Orban vs. Magyar: The Battle for Hungary

• Orban, the EU’s longest serving leader, is trailing challenger Péter Magyar, a conservative former ally. (27:29–28:21)
• Orban controls 80% of the media, uses economic “sweeteners” and runs strong anti-EU and anti-Ukraine campaigns.
• Tax breaks for mothers, anti-immigration rhetoric, and reviving national identity myths.
• “This is strange stuff… going back to just after the First World War…supporters are waving flags of ‘Greater Hungary’.” (Rory, 31:37)
• Electoral interference accusations are mirrored in claims against Ukraine, despite a lack of evidence.

Corruption & “Illiberal Democracy”

• Orban’s system is described as “clever” corruption—nationalizing industries then reprivatizing to friends.
• “The mayor… is now one of the wealthiest people in Hungary. He’s been given government contracts. And the problem in unraveling all this is that it’s been done… in very tricky ways.” (Rory, 31:37)
• Potential for a Hungary “January 6th” if Orban narrowly loses.

The Significance

• Hungary’s EU role is pivotal, requiring unanimity on sanctions, rule of law, Ukraine, etc.
• National conservative networks are influencing each other globally:
  • “...these transnational networks that share ideas… Orban’s been right at the center of this from the beginning.” (Rory, 35:22)
  • Shared “civilizational defense, Christianity, white people... and immigration gives you a kind of moral dimension.” (36:03)
• Alastair laments: “The progressive left is not remotely as well organized globally and frankly need to be.” (36:37)

3. By-Elections, US Politics, & Media Moments (36:37–47:06)

UK By-Election Jitters (37:10–41:11)

• Focus on Gordon and Denton by-election, a Labour stronghold in trouble after scandal.
• Reform and Green parties both field strong local candidates, with Labour at risk.
• On the reform party’s candidate: “He’s a sort of self-styled academic who studied the far right and became far right. Very, very bad pick.” (Alastair, 37:41)
• Discussion on shifting voting patterns, risk for Labour, and strategic missteps.

US: Shock Win in Texas (41:11–41:42)

• Democrats take a solidly Republican Texas seat with a massive swing, despite being outspent 9-to-1.
• “Trump… had nothing to do with this, nothing to do with me,” but his endorsement may have hurt. (Rory, 41:11)
• Reflection: As Trump’s influence becomes a liability, GOP politicians may change tactics.

Melania Documentary & Media Satire (42:07–45:00)

• Discussion (and derision) of the new Melania Trump documentary expose.
• “She gets $28 million as executive producer of a documentary about herself.” (Alastair, 42:26)
• “The only way to enjoy this is to have a foot fetish because there are thousands of shots of her shoes.” (Alastair, 43:54)

4. Book, Film, and Exhibition Recommendations (45:00–47:18)

• Rory plugs an Amazon documentary about King Charles and environmentalism (44:10).
• British Museum’s samurai exhibition, “something for everybody… medieval military armour, samurai in the modern world, and it finishes with Darth Vader himself!” (Rory, 45:02)
• Alastair’s literary and film picks: “The Big Music” by Kirsty Gunn and the new film “Is this thing on,” inspired by comedian John Bishop’s life (45:58).

5. Meta: Podcast Style Debate & Closing Banter (47:18–End)

• Light-hearted clash on Question Time’s format—deep dives vs. spontaneous fun (47:27).
• “I love doing the research, Rory. I bet I do more research than you!” (Alastair, 47:55)
• Both agree: first half for big dives, second half for jolly, zippy questions.

Episode Takeaways

• On Iran: The risks of American military intervention are extreme and unpredictable, with Iranian society already traumatized and the region rife with potential escalation. Trump’s intentions may be anything from regime change to deliberate chaos—a dangerous mix.
• On Hungary: Illiberal democracy is on the ballot, with interference and playbooks drawn from global rightwing networks.
• On broader politics: Political trends are volatile in both the UK and US, while media spectacle and propaganda blur the lines between politics and entertainment.
• **The Rest Is Politics remains a “go-to” for sharp, sometimes wry but always probing discussion—anchored in deep expertise, but never immune to a wry aside or self-deprecating jest.