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The Rest Is Politics
501. Is Starmer Too Soft on Trump? Inside the Munich Security Conference
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- [00:00]
Alastair Campbell
Thanks for listening to the Rest Is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com.
- [00:20]
Rory Stewart
Welcome to the Rest Is Politics with me, Rory Stewart, and me, Ernest Campbell. And we're doing something quite radical here, which is our main episode today is going to be located in a time and a place. We're going to bring you right into the heart of the Munich Security Conference. We're recording it a little bit earlier than we normally would, but I hope what you'll feel is it gives you a sense of the flavour of international diplomacy.
- [00:40]
Alastair Campbell
And then we'll do question time sometime early next week.
- [00:44]
Rory Stewart
Very good.
- [00:45]
Alastair Campbell
We've also been really lucky to do some fantastic interviews and we are being spoiled for choice for leading in the coming weeks. So we have been talking here to some Sarah McBride, this extraordinary transgender congresswoman from Delaware. We've had a fantastic interview just now with Gavin Newsom, who I am strongly encouraging to run for it, to go for it and try and get to the White House. And also Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland. And we've also got in the can, as it were, coming up soon, Rob Malley, who was U.S. administration's leading advisor on Iran, and also the former German chancellor, also Olaf Scholz. So we've been spoiled for choice. Sadly, we have not been able to pin down Marco Rubio, but who knows, one day we will.
- [01:31]
Rory Stewart
So this is an episode where we're really going to try to bring you into two things. One of them is just a feeling of what these international conferences are like, what it's like to be here, the kind of things that people are talking about. But then we're going to get, I think, into the big issues, which is what is now happening in the big international relations, particularly between Europe and the us. And we're going to focus on two big speeches. We're going to focus on the speech by Marco Rubio, the sexist state, which happened this morning. And we're going to focus also on another speech this morning by Keir Starmer, the British prime minister. And I think Alastair and I are going to get into some slightly spicy disagreements about this, about whether speeches matter and what kind of vision we need for the world. But before that, let's just give you a bit of a feeling for the tone of the place and what's going on. So to give a sense, we're sitting now in what basically in normal life is A shop of a hotel. It's the bayerischmundsen Hotel. And we are going in and out of weird bars and coffee shops of what was once a perfectly functioning central hotel and has now turned to a conference center. Yeah, yeah. With the sort of number of loos you'd expect in a hotel, not the number of loos you'd expect in a conference center. And the number of doors you'd expect in a hotel, not the number of doors you'd expect.
- [02:43]
Alastair Campbell
And just relentlessly bumping into people. So the first person I met after coming through security was Maya Sandhu, President of Moldova. I then bumped into Priti Patel. I then bumped into. How do we describe this? Somebody who works for British Intelligence, quite senior in. And on it goes. I then, while we were waiting for Ali's understood, I chanced upon a presentation by the Ukrainian military about how they'd been developing their defense systems since the war started, which was absolutely fascinating. I had to leave that early. I like this much, much more than Davos. I think there are far fewer people just endlessly looking over your shoulder to see if any more important.
- [03:32]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, it's less corporate, it's more defense security.
- [03:34]
Alastair Campbell
Much more about defense and security. I get. And I think that there's something sort of quite old fashioned about the. About the setting, which I quite like as well. So. No, and I think speeches are still so important in history and in politics and, and in the day to day. A lot of the conversations this week running, going around the place in Davos, every single conversation was about Greenland pretty much this year, one year on, a lot of the conversations have still been about J.D. vance's speech. That shows you how significant it was. And now Rubio's tried to sort of reset that a little bit. I say.
- [04:09]
Rory Stewart
And yet at the same time, under the surface, this is a place to be reminded of how many other things are happening in the world which are not being properly reported. I went to an event with Reza Pahtlovi, the Crown Prince of Persia, Iran, who has been very much one of the leading figures in driving the uprisings against the government in Iran. And then I saw him again later in the evening and we had another little chat. Very interesting. So let me just. Because listeners probably would have heard our podcast on Iran. We were talking about Trump administration. He says the big fight now. And actually he's just met the Venezuelan Nobel Prize winner. And what she's talking about.
- [04:55]
Alastair Campbell
Machado.
- [04:55]
Rory Stewart
Yeah. Is Machado and Petlovy are worried that what Trump's trying to do is just get rid of Khomeini and leave the rest of the regime in place, some sort of revolutionary guard, military government in place. And he's saying it's just not enough. The people won't put up with it. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the streets. There needs to be a real change. But at the same time, the Gulf, who are also here, are terrified that what Trump will do is just enough to annoy the Iranians and provoke a response, but not enough actually to topple the regime again. And so there's a very complicated thing going on with the Turks, the Qataris, the Egyptians and others to try to get some sort of agreement. And nobody knows what Trump will do. We talked about this with Rob Manley. What he'll declare a success this episode.
- [05:42]
Alastair Campbell
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- [06:33]
Rory Stewart
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- [07:36]
Alastair Campbell
The other thing that happens, people will have followed this on tv, will have probably seen the big speeches on the news. There's Rubio, there's Merz, there's Macron, there's Keir Starw, there's von der Leyen, whatever. But there's also all these kind of really interesting kind of panels and workshops. I mentioned the one about Ukrainian military, but it was very interesting to watch. The Saudi. Was it defense or foreign minister? Foreign minister on one of the panels yesterday with the Colombian Kayakallis from the European Union. And also Mike Waltz, the new ambassador, American ambassador to the un who managed.
- [08:12]
Rory Stewart
To put out a tweet where his major demonstration of his press up skills. Yeah. Was 30 press ups as his Marine bodyguard.
- [08:19]
Alastair Campbell
It was impressive.
- [08:20]
Rory Stewart
It was impressive. But on the other hand, wasn't quite outcast. Is that really what we need from our senior diplomats? Was Talleyrand famous for his.
- [08:28]
Alastair Campbell
Probably not, but Talleyrand was Ernie Bevin.
- [08:31]
Rory Stewart
Known for his ability to do press ups. Is the whole skill of an ambassador being able to do 30 press ups your security team?
- [08:38]
Alastair Campbell
It's not, but.
- [08:39]
Rory Stewart
So why the hell is he dedicating his big launch to the social media team, watching him do press ups?
- [08:44]
Alastair Campbell
Two reasons, Rory. One, because, dare I say, he might be a bit of a show off and secondly, he might be thinking that's the sort of thing that Trump's like because he likes when we're fit and strong. Anyway, if I can go back to my panel, the Saudi minister was saying almost in terms, look, I'm feeling all this angst. I'm really paraphrasing now and I'm sort of adding a bit of my own interpretation. I'm feeling all this angst amongst you Europeans about the global world order is sort of vanishing in front of your eyes. But where we've been, it's kind of not really been there for quite a long time. And what you haven't yet fully caught up with is that we're emerging in a very different way as well. The other thing that was fascinating on that panel was, I mean, Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, is one of the best eye rollers on the planet. I mean, she's just absolutely. Her facial expressions are eye rolling. Kaia Kallas ran her close yesterday when Mike Waltz was talking about all the wars that Trump has stopped and when he was echoing the lines from Rubio about basically nothing happens in this world without the United States she was doing.
- [09:55]
Rory Stewart
Very good eye roll on uae, Saudi, we'll return to that. But you can see in Yemen, you can see in Sudan, you can see in Somaliland, and you can see on policy to Israel, they're knocking bits off each other and there's a social media war going on that's very destabilizing. Before we move on to the big substance far thing, which is to talk about the big speeches, Rubio, Starmer, et cetera, I was at a late night event with Google last night, which I'm afraid I didn't leave till almost midnight. So I'm feeling pretty rubbish this morning. And it was striking how much of that was about Europe now really worried about its tech sovereignty and Google having to try to reassure Europeans and Microsoft will be doing the same and other American companies the same, that they can let you use their products without the American government either being able to spy on the contents or have a kill switch. And the kill switch point is that the head of the International Criminal Court was sanctioned by Trump, basically accused of being a terrorist. And Google and Microsoft effectively felt they were forced to completely disable all his accounts and all his access to everything, leaving Europeans thinking, whoa, could this happen to us? And there's some really interesting questions about whether you can set up legal structures, subsidiaries to actually give Europe sovereignty on this and how you balance that against the other brutal point which Google would never make openly, but that France is spending 20 billion on tech. And that sounds like a lot, but Google and the other tech companies will be spending over 300 billion next year alone on the next stage of their tech investment in AI. So the Munich Security Conference is chiefly known, I think, for many listeners, because this is where JD Vance, very radically in February last year, a year ago, made a speech to Munich to a horrified European crowd, which you watched, I think, live. Tell us a little bit about it.
- [11:54]
Alastair Campbell
Well, I said at the time it was like you had the audience of European politicians, diplomats, security experts, and it sounded like it felt like he sort of turned up with a bucket of vomit and was just sort of throwing it across everybody. He basically said that Putin's not your big problem, your lack of commitment to free speeches. He started the arguments that we then saw develop in the national security strategy about what they then defined as civilizational erasure. It really felt like it was signaling, to quote Mark Carney at Davos, that this was a rupture rather than a transition. And of course, what this Munich conference will be most remembered for in terms of the American transatlantic alliance is Marco Rubio, whose Secretary of State, whose speech today I think was. It doesn't move that much from the substance of what Vance was saying, but he was perhaps much, much more diplomatic about how he put it.
- [12:50]
Rory Stewart
The other thing that was happening a year ago is that this was the moment when Germany was about to go into an election, when the AfD, the Alternative for Deutsche on the far right, was on the rise. And of course, Elon Musk was still very much part of the Trump administration. Musk was openly campaigning for the AfD. Vance, the vice President, took time out of his schedule to meet Alice Fidelis, the leader of the AfD. And it was the first time that we began to see something that's in the national security strategy, which is about the US using its influence in order to support what they seem to see as the kind of patriotic real parties against the sort of liberals who are wiping out European civilization. In other words, a moment where it felt as though the US was and the administration particularly people like Musk putting their emphasis on trying to almost campaign for the FD and hoping they were going to win the election.
- [13:42]
Alastair Campbell
Well, not almost trying to. They effectively were, you know, part of the rules based international order about which Vance very dramatically last year was condemnatory. And Rubio in a more emollient way was saying pretty much the same thing is that you don't interfere in other countries elections, but they very directly have been interfering. Interestingly, yesterday the whole conference here was opened by Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor. And in the Q and A he was coming as close as German chancellor's come to, to say please vote Peter Magyar in the Hungarian election. But of course, you know, Trump is just out there. Vote Orban. And so I, look, I think this is, I was a bit troubled by the response in the hall for Rubio because I was watching it and I was. And maybe I'm, you know, we've just introduced Gavin Newsom who basically, basically said, I probably do have a little bit of Trump derangement syndrome and there may be something in there. But I was watching Rubio and I was feeling this is the same message but much more nicely packaged.
- [14:47]
Rory Stewart
I picked up a few sentences from it that I thought were quite striking. We've increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions. So that's, that's one big important American claim. Which is, which is, which is an idea in the MAGA movement, in the Republicans, that. But the things that america Created since 1945, the UN, NATO, are actually impacts on US sovereignty. They don't give it its full freedom, of course.
- [15:12]
Alastair Campbell
What is he saying? What is he saying the world should have done at that point?
- [15:15]
Rory Stewart
Well, so this is exactly the fight. Right. The agreement after the Second World War was that peace, prosperity was going to come from America. Yes. Slightly pooling its sovereignty, accepting rules that apply to America as much as to other people. That's the problem with international institutions. The rules apply to you as well as to other people. Right. And what America got from that is incredible influence, power, unparalleled prosperity, because it was able to use that system to build coalitions and allies and broadly push well in its direction. But if you go for a purist view, and of course, Brexit's partly about this too, where you say we're not going to make any compromises at all on our ability to do whatever we want whenever we want, anywhere in the world, then logically, of course, you do end up where Ribio is. Just to go on from that. So we outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions, invested too much in massive welfare states at the cost of defending ourselves, imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, oil and coal and natural gas, and let in an unprecedented wave of mass migration. Civilization, the balance of history, led to the shutting of our plants. So he's going on essentially his story, and he uses the Fukuyama world, the end of history, that basically everything that's wrong in the world came from the liberal global order. Globalization destroyed jobs, made us weaker, welfare states impoverished. As the UN capitalist, which, by the.
- [16:41]
Alastair Campbell
Way, until he became Secretary of State to Donald Trump, he did not believe. This is what I find so appalling about these people. And actually one of the things I was alarmed by, he almost got a complete standing ovation.
- [16:54]
Rory Stewart
And why do you think the Europeans were so cheered up by it? But because he talked about Leonardo da Vinci and said how lovely Beatles and.
- [17:00]
Alastair Campbell
Shakespeare and the Sistine Chapel and Christopher Columbus and that's we got our laws from Britain and all this stuff. So what he did was essentially say, we all know, and this is something that Gavin Newsom was saying to us just now. They all basically exist. To imagine that Donald Trump is watching them on television. Now, the reason why the Europeans were quite cheered up is because it was not as appalling as Vance, but the message was pretty much the same. So he had all. He said all the things that you're saying, which is what Vance said. And the national security strategy says that Europe, because of immigration and because of all the other stuff that they're saying only we do.
- [17:35]
Rory Stewart
And just a sort of footnote on this, because I'm not sure we've talked about this enough on the podcast. American public diplomacy is now increasingly aligned with the national security strategy, which is a pompous way of saying.
- [17:46]
Alastair Campbell
Has to be.
- [17:47]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's a pompous way of saying words matter. This story, that what Trump says or Watson's strategy doesn't really matter. The whole bureaucracy is now behind the idea that you're meant to be behind parties like Orban populists in Europe, and you're meant to be pushing back against liberal democracy and immigration, et cetera.
- [18:04]
Alastair Campbell
And what I found a little bit alarming about the response was there was something really needy about it. And the reason was he said the right things. He said, look, he did. It was quite moving when he talked about the history and. And the role of Europe in giving birth to America. And he talked about, you know, we'll always be partners and we are your children and all this sort of stuff. So he had lots of moving lines. But it was, I think, and maybe I'm being harsh on him, I think it was a very effective political cover of a substantial strategy that is not remotely changed. So I think, you know, this is where we should talk about Keir Starmer's speech as well, because in a way, the part Zakir Starman's speech I really liked. Like, for example, the fact he's basically saying, you know, Brexit. He's not quite speaking about Brexit in the way that I would, but he's basically saying we have no security without Europe. And that is more so the case now. But I think there was also an element of a rebuttal of Mark Carney in there.
- [19:02]
Rory Stewart
Well, let me do my attempt to sort of do a minute summary of my sense of speech. Then you can correct me, because you had a much closer thoughtful engagement with it. So he begins by saying we need to understand that the UK Needs to be much closer to Europe. And he talks very explicitly about the fact that Europe's got far too many different national defense systems when the US has one frigate, one advanced fighter jet, et cetera. And that needs to be sorted out. But he then says some people talk about rupture. The person who talked about rupture is, of course, Mark Carney, and that was Mark Carney and Davos a few weeks ago. And I disagree. And I think we need. And he then explicitly says, we cannot break the transatlantic relationship. We need to remain very, very close to the United States.
- [19:47]
Alastair Campbell
And that is why the audience for Rubio so welcomed him saying something similar. So there was a sort of complementarity between Rubio's. If you strip out the kind of. The really kind of negative stuff about Europe and immigration, you strip that out. It's a very kind of Vancian Maga speech. But the mood music was very, very different. And that is what pleased the audience. What I think will also please the European audience is that there's Keir Starmer essentially saying, this is the bit that maybe he went down particularly well was, we are very much part of you. We have to reform our defence systems. We have to be much closer. But at the same time, he's saying we have to do our level best to keep this transatlantic relationship with the United States very, very strong. And I don't think many people will disagree with that.
- [20:39]
Rory Stewart
But what was interesting is that he didn't, in a way that Merz did. Stubb is now doing the president of Finland and certainly Carney. He doesn't at any point in the speech really call out the U.S. he doesn't say, as everybody is here still, Greenland is the game changer. I mean, one of the interesting things I feel with European colleagues when I've been talking to them, both in meetings and outside meetings and late at night, is their take on Metz's speech, is he needs to buy time. He needs to get an EU US trade deal across the line. So he doesn't want to unnecessarily offend Trump until that's done. But they are in absolutely no doubt that the world changed with Greenland, and you get that sense with Stob ii, the point at which the United States signaled in the lead up to Davos that it was prepared to annex somebody else's sovereign territory. Game changer.
- [21:35]
Alastair Campbell
Yeah. And I think Keir Starmer's speech is clear about that. I mean, he said, you know, he says, in terms we recognize things are changing. The US national security strategy spells out that Europe must take quotes, primary responsibility for its own defense. That is the new normal.
- [21:48]
Rory Stewart
No, no, no, no. But can I interrupt and be mean to him?
- [21:50]
Alastair Campbell
Right.
- [21:51]
Rory Stewart
You've just told us what actually is interesting about the US national security strategy. Not that it's saying that Europe needs to take responsibility for its defense. That was the line from the first Trump administration. That was a line from Biden, that was the line from Obama, and that's what Elbridge Colby was selling yesterday in his speech, wandering around somewhere in central defense. As you pointed out, the key point of the U.S. national Security Strategy is it's talking about civilizational erasure in Europe. It's talking about putting its energy behind the populist far right in Europe. It's talking about us not being democracies. So what actually Starmer is doing, if I'm going to criticize him, is he is still buying into the Department of Defense rhetoric, which has been running for 10 years, which is that it's Europe's fault we didn't spend enough on defense and that the US Criticism of Europe is perfectly legitimate. If only we'd spent more on defense, we'd be able to stand on our own two feet. But that isn't really what Trump's policy is about. Trump's policy that's now just. It's increasingly clear that's just a mask. This is what the DoD says, and we parrot that line and Starmer's parrot in that line. They're much more radical now. They're not serious about the NATO alliance. They're not serious about helping us against Russia. They're not serious about helping us rearm America isn't serious about getting European defense industries off the ground. They're not serious about helping us with satellite Ukraine. It's bull. This is a spin from the DOD to justify Greenland. Cuts, aid cuts, betrayal to Putin. Betrayal on Ukraine.
- [23:18]
Alastair Campbell
No, listen, I get that, but I think that's easy for us to say. Okay? He's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
- [23:24]
Rory Stewart
How come Carney can say it?
- [23:25]
Alastair Campbell
And Mertz, I think. I don't think Mertz did say that.
- [23:28]
Rory Stewart
He's much, much closer to it than Starmer.
- [23:31]
Alastair Campbell
Well, let me just say this. I said to you start, there are bits about this speech I like, and there are bits of speech I like less.
- [23:36]
Rory Stewart
Did you write this speech? Is that why you're defending.
- [23:38]
Alastair Campbell
No, I didn't write the speech. No, I did not. He said. He said there have been a series of thoughtful interventions, including the argument that we are at a moment of rupture.
- [23:49]
Rory Stewart
That was Carney's great speech.
- [23:50]
Alastair Campbell
And that was Carney's speech.
- [23:51]
Rory Stewart
He used the word.
- [23:51]
Alastair Campbell
So this is basically where he's. He's saying, mark, love you lots. Think you're really smart. Thought the speech is amazing. But this is the. But he goes, I agree the world has changed fundamentally and that we must find new ways to uphold our values and the rule of law. Now, Carney was big about saying we can't pretend that we have the same values. Okay, he's saying that veri sotto voce there. But in responding to that Change. We must not disregard everything that has sustained us for the last 80 years. This could prove to be a moment of destruction, which is the theme of this conference, is the German word for destruction. And the conference is arguing the world order has been destroyed. But instead he says, I believe we must make this a moment of creation instead of a moment of rupture, one of radical renewal. And I think the substance of the speech then is actually. You're now putting your head in your hands, Rory, which is making me think I'm making you ill. But I think the substance of the speech is actually saying, I've said this so many times. Merz, Macron, all of them, Keir Starmer, they're trying to buy time. This speech is about building up our defences in incredibly difficult political circumstances. Because what he's saying there probably means at some point in the near future, we're going to have to increase defence spending massively. We are going to have to do some of the things you talked about, about rebuilding our diplomacy, investing more in intelligence. But at the moment, particularly in regards to Ukraine, we are having to rely on the United States of America. So he's saying it's not that sensible for us to come around and be like Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart and just say, these people are truly terrible.
- [25:28]
Rory Stewart
No, I agree with you. He should not be talking like a podcaster. He shouldn't be doing his love, actually moment. But I think that Carney and Macron, certainly, and even Metz, have demonstrated, and Stubb was demonstrating gaming. Talk to how you can do this without blowing up the transaction. And you need to, because there's a big strategic call that Starmer needs to make now, which I'm afraid he's fluffing, if he's not able to be clear about it in a speech at Munich. I don't think he can be clear about it in the Cabinet table or the nsc. What is his view? What is he telling the British? What's he telling us about the future of our intelligence relationship with the us? What's he telling British industry about how much we should be creating an economy built on American cloud computing, American AI? What's he saying about how much American defense equipment we should be buying? What's he saying about how command and control in NATO works? What's he saying about what kind of deals we should have with China? What's the big view? We know what Carney's view is. We can see what Macron's view is, even if he's struggling to deliver it. And above all, the only hope for the middle powers is if they get together, if they begin to develop and share a joint philosophy. Nothing is less useful than the middle powers sniping at each other and saying, oh, I slightly disagree with your speech. I don't think it's quite like this. And I mean, it's a real civil servant speech. It's. Well, on the one hand, on the other. And yes, some things are changing, but we still want to renew.
- [27:02]
Alastair Campbell
Roy, I do think you're being harsh, because I think there's a part of this speech you say, what's his message to the British people? Part of his message to the British people is that we might have to prepare ourselves to be at war and as a result of that, have to change our defence industries. And I think he is answering some, but not all of those questions. And okay, when you say it's a civil servant speech, it is. He is sort of saying on the one hand, on the other, in a way that, I mean, what Mark Carney did, and the reason why you and I liked that speech so much was because it met a moment where the American President was basically saying, you know, you lot don't matter nearly as much as you did. And Mark Carney's response is, well, you might say that, but actually, if we get together, we matter an awful lot. What I think a lot of Keir Starmer's speech about is actually in relation to what he's done with the French, the Germans, the Poles and the others in relation to Ukraine. Ukraine that is going to carry on. So I think it's what you want. I think you do want a bit of the Hugh Grant love, actually moment.
- [28:00]
Rory Stewart
I'm not interested in standing up to Trump, I'm interested in how he remains in lockstep with Carney, Macron and Metz. They need to be reinforcing each other's messages and repeating again and again and again, what's the vision? What's The Jean Monet 5, 10 year vision for how the rest of the mess around America is going to be?
- [28:20]
Alastair Campbell
Maybe I'm being way too optimistic and this is my own confirmation bias coming in. I'm reading in here quite a substantial step down a much more sensible road in relation to Europe. It was interesting when we interviewed Alexander Stuart, what did he say right at the end? And look, it's an old tactic, you know, you wait till the very end to say the thing that you really want to deliver with absolute, absolute passion. And he'd mentioned how much he admired and respected Keir Starmer a couple of times through the, through the interview and then right at the end says, you know, it took you seven years to leave. I want you to take seven years to realize this is a disaster and seven years to get back in. I see within this Keir Starmer pointing Britain in a very European future direction, but saying Again, to use AlexanderStubb phrase used a couple of times, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater in relation to the United States.
- [29:11]
Rory Stewart
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- [30:12]
Rory Stewart
To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com restispolitics you'll get four extra months free on the two year plan, plus a 30 day money back guarantee. The links in the episode description. Maybe let's move it off. Starmer and I was thinking about this talking to the Canadians yesterday. Let's say we want in five, 10 years to create a situation in which we have a rectangular world where the four corners are us, China, Global South.
- [30:51]
Alastair Campbell
The reason you say that is because this is Alexander Stubbs book. The triangle of power we detected as we were talking to him a wish that maybe he'd called it the rectangle.
- [31:02]
Rory Stewart
The rectangle. So let's say it's a rectangle pair where the US Book. The US is actually separate from Europe, uk, Canada, Japan, South Korea. Right. Australia. Put them all together, you've got enormous economies. Put those lot together. Actually the economy's larger than the us, larger than China, if they can coordinate. So let's say those economies want to reduce their dependence on China and The us Critical minerals and independence, Independent sovereign control of critical minerals. Quantum AI, cloud computing, satellite isr, ballistic missiles, financial payment systems, debt. Right. How would we do that? Architecture? What kind of leadership would we be looking for? It's a huge shift. I keep coming back to this very, very weird moment where Europe and the UK didn't manage to get their defense agreement together. So a lot of Starmer speeches about it. It came down to the fact that Europe wanted the UK to pay a few billion and the UK thought it was too much. But what you expect at a moment of crisis is political leaders not to get caught up in that sort of stuff, to see the big picture, not to get dragged down into a few billion here, a few billion there, some rules here. But really think we've got to make this work.
- [32:27]
Alastair Campbell
I mean, that is a fair point. And I think it relates to a desire sometimes for governments and politicians not to make people scared. And I think we're reaching that point where we maybe do need to make people a bit scared about what this all means. I think we've. I think it was interesting talking to Ali Zander Stubb. So he said part of the argument of his book is, you know, 1918, 1945, 1989, real turning points in history. And the responses then dictated safety or not, security or not, prosperity or not for the next generation. And he was arguing that 2022 invasion of Ukraine, rather than, as I sometimes see it, Trump Term two is. Is that moment in history. And what. I'll tell you what I actually like to. And maybe this is just because I'm too political. You're looking for Keir, I think, to come to the security conference and make a big, big speech about us. And I think there's elements of that.
- [33:30]
Rory Stewart
But Churchill would have done it, possibly.
- [33:32]
Alastair Campbell
Yeah, I'm sure he would, but I actually quite like. Can I just read the ending of the speech where he talks about the need to build consent for all the difficult decisions that we're going to have to take. All of the governments represented here are going to have to take to keep us safe. And he says, because if we don't, the peddlers of easy answers are ready on the extremes of left and right and they will offer their solutions instead. It's striking that different ends of the spectrum. So in the uk, this is Green Party and reform striking. The different ends of the spectrum share so much. Soft on Russia, weak on NATO, if not outright opposed, determined to sacrifice the relationships we need on the altar of their ideology. The future they offer is One of division, then capitulation lamps would go out across Europe once again. We will not let that happen. If we believe in our values, democracy, liberty and the rule of law, this is the moment to stand up and fight for them. That's why we work together, take responsibility, et cetera, et cetera. Now, again, you're looking sort of.
- [34:31]
Rory Stewart
I mean, it's not great, is it?
- [34:33]
Alastair Campbell
That, I think, is where he is starting to say to the country, which, if you relate to the top of the speech about where we might actually be at war. He's basically saying to the country, this is a much more serious fight that we're in than maybe we have been telling you.
- [34:48]
Rory Stewart
But it doesn't feel like he's got it yet. I don't think he sees how serious it is. I don't think he sees how radical the rupture is. I think he's just caught up. This is a speech. A lot of this is about Russian threats to Europe and they need to defend ourselves. And he's worried about Farage. I don't think he's actually really thinking about how the US has completely shifted the entire global architecture.
- [35:10]
Alastair Campbell
Is Farage in our politics not to some extent a code for Trumpism?
- [35:15]
Rory Stewart
This is no longer a world that you need to be coded permissibly. I mean, we've just interviewed Gavin Newsom, but actually, as I say, there are many world leaders who demonstrate that you can be.
- [35:26]
Alastair Campbell
Makani and Macron are really the only ones. I don't agree with you that Mertz really pushed the boat yesterday.
- [35:31]
Rory Stewart
I think Metz went a long way further than Starmer.
- [35:34]
Alastair Campbell
He already had, though. He already had. But I think maybe they're all playing a different role. I mean, look, we should find out what. We will find out. What the others thought about it is.
- [35:41]
Rory Stewart
Too much different role. This is my obsession that I actually had this disagreement with somebody yesterday from Europe. They were saying, well, maybe we don't need big ideas and big architecture. Let's look at all the little different agreements we already have and all the different initiatives, and if you put them all together, it's a classic civil service speech. Oh, Minister, you don't really need a big thing, because actually we've done a bit of work which proves that the government's already doing all the things you want to do anyway. I actually think this is a moment where you do need big unified vision and you need big new structures and big new ideas. And what worries me is they're all thinking, they're doing all their own little Clever things. And we're doing a bit here and we're doing a bit there. And that's where I think Tony Blair would have made a much bigger speech. Certainly Winston Churchill would have made a much bigger speech. But my suspicion is Macmillan would have made a bigger speech. Thatcher would have made a bigger speech. I mean, good God, even Boris Johnson would have made a bigger speech. I mean, this is a moment that actually requires some leadership and vision, because multilateral diplomacy is a lot about that. I mean, just see the power of what Carney did. There's no reason why Britain couldn't have led that debate.
- [36:51]
Alastair Campbell
Would you have been happy or happier if he had said something like this? Trump Term two is fundamentally different to Trump Term one. We all know that Name checked.
- [37:04]
Rory Stewart
Greenland. Even the word Greenland would reassure me.
- [37:07]
Alastair Campbell
Okay. A year ago, JD Vance set out a very, very different vision for relations between the United States and Europe. And it's one that since then, we've all been coming to terms with.
- [37:18]
Rory Stewart
And let me add that. And I do not accept civilizational erasure, okay?
- [37:22]
Alastair Campbell
And we did that. We showed in relation to Greenland that together, in our different ways, with our different tones and our different this and that and the other, we can push back. And we did that. And I'm very, very pleased that we did that. And actually, Marco Rubio's speech today in part reflected that. However, the scale of the change that we're undergoing with a different Trump administration, with China on the rise, with Russia now doing what it's been doing since 20, well, since 2014, that we as a country have to face up to far greater responsibilities on defence, intelligence, diplomacy, et cetera. And we are going to do that. And it's going to mean some very difficult choices, and it's going to mean.
- [38:04]
Rory Stewart
A bit of pooling sovereignty, going to.
- [38:06]
Alastair Campbell
Mean working with others, and then go on to the bit about Europe and we don't have defence without a European NATO, and we have to be strong in Europe. And therefore, this is where I would go. But he and I. Maybe I'm just being a bit sort of naive about this. I think that's what he's starting to say in that. Now, where I would like to get to is a place where we can continue to have decent relations with the United States, because then that's important intelligence and all the other stuff. And at the same time, persuade the country, because I think the country is eminently persuadable on this. We made a huge mistake in 2016. We are still paying a price, and we now have to fix that faster and in a more radical way than thus far we've been considering. Would that have made you happier?
- [38:54]
Rory Stewart
Absolutely. The thing that's cheered you up and cheers me up is it looks like the policy is to get much closer to Europe. But my goodness, we seem to be fluffing it on the first test with defence, which should have been the easiest.
- [39:05]
Alastair Campbell
Thing of all, which was a two way thing.
- [39:07]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, absolutely. But it's got to go much beyond that. We've got to get that feeling that we're thinking about Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea. We've got to be thinking about critical minerals, rare Earths, AI, all this kind of stuff that I'm talking about. We've got to have a sense that this is where we need to develop sovereign capacity, be independent. We need to find a way of being respectful to the US and playing the President's language back against him. The way you said is listening. Thank you, Mr. President. You're absolutely right. We need to be more independent. You keep saying it. It's in your national security strategy. Marco Rubio said it. We need to stand our own feet. That's why we're going to be spending 3.5% of GDP on defence. That's why we're going to be building our own defense equipment. That's why we're not going to be buying quite so much defense kit from you. Because you don't want us to. You want us to be independent and standing on our own two feet. That's why we're going to be making agreements with France to develop new forms of deterrent and we'll do this in partnership. And we're stronger to better and we're stronger allies. But the direction of travel is independence.
- [40:06]
Alastair Campbell
Okay, well, I don't think we're fundamentally disagreeing. I think you probably just wanted a.
- [40:10]
Rory Stewart
Well, I want some leadership. I want some leadership. No, I want leadership. I want vision. I want a sense that he cares about the multilateral system, that he cares about the international order, that he's not just sort of making little comments about Carney. I mean, what was the point of that? What was the point of having a go at Carney? I mean, really, he could have made the whole speech being polite to the US if that's what he wants to do. Being pro Europe without having to distance himself. That sort of actually sounded, I'm afraid, a bit chippy and insecure, as though he's a bit jealous. The fact that Carney's saying to him, so where's the big story? Where does he think we're going to be in five, 10 years time?
- [40:46]
Alastair Campbell
Well, I hope the big story is where Alexander Stubb wanted it to be at the end of our interview, which we'll be putting out in the next couple of weeks, which is understanding that at a time when our closest ally, United States, historically, is making clear that in their eyes, whatever Rubio says today, this is a rupture that our future is very much as a leading economic, political, military, diplomatic power in Europe.
- [41:13]
Rory Stewart
Very good. Well, let's end on that. Alistair, thank you very much indeed.
- [41:16]
Alastair Campbell
See you soon.
- [41:17]
Rory Stewart
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