The Rest Is Politics – Episode 504

Is Trump Losing His Tariffs War? (Question Time)

Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: February 24, 2026

Overview

In this Question Time episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart tackle major recent events in UK and global politics. The primary focus is the significant US Supreme Court decision restricting President Trump's use of unilateral tariffs, analyzing its implications for US politics and the world economy. Other topics include the arrest of former Prince Andrew, corruption and cronyism in public life (notably the Epstein scandal), and reforms in UK education policy regarding special educational needs (SEND). The discussion is marked by candid debate, institutional analysis, and an occasional anecdotal turn, with attention to how power, law, and scandal interact in modern democracies.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Trump Tariff Ruling: Supreme Court Strikes Back

(00:09 – 24:03)

Background of the Tariff War

• Discussion opens on the Supreme Court slapping down Trump’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs without Congressional approval.
  • Rory Stewart: “The Supreme Court has just slapped him. Not on something marginal...this is right at the very core of his power.” (00:09)
  • Alastair Campbell: “It’s fundamental both to his economic policy and to his foreign policy.” (00:19)

What Did Trump Do and What Changed?

• Trump had imposed erratic, sweeping tariffs using emergency powers, affecting allies and adversaries; often settled by “napkin deals.”
• Notable examples:
  • Tariffs targeting India (row over Russian oil), Brazil (Bolsonaro’s prosecution), Switzerland (personal grudge at Davos). (01:42)
  • Settlements often involved transactional, opaque deals, many barely documented.
• Challenge brought by VOS Selections (wine importer), and “Learning Resources and Hand to Mind” over legality; resulted in Supreme Court decision.

Supreme Court Ruling

• Stripped Trump’s power to impose such tariffs unilaterally, restoring congressional oversight.
  • Campbell: “The administration went to the Supreme Court...struck down Trump’s authority to impose these tariffs without Congress. That’s the key point. In a vote of 6 to 3, cue Trump going absolutely bonkers...” (04:00)
  • Stewart: “Congress is supposed to have the power of the purse...Tariffs are a massive part of the power of the purse.” (08:51)
• Trump’s angry response via late-night social media post, full of typos and characteristic defiance. (07:29)

Legal and Political Implications

• The Supreme Court deliberately did not dwell on the dubious “emergency” justifications, choosing to focus tightly on legal/statutory grounds.
  • Stewart: “He decided that anything he wanted was an emergency...Supreme Court could have looked at that. They decided not to...” (10:12)
• Trump’s fallback: Section 122 (Trade Act 1974) allows only very limited, temporary tariffs (15% for 150 days, then Congress controls).
• Other legal routes (232 national security, 301 trade unfairness, 338) are all more cumbersome, bureaucratic, and open to challenge.
  • Stewart: “They’re all very cumbersome. They’re not going to work for him the way the other stuff worked...very expensive. It’s possible he’s going to have to repay $150 billion to all these companies because his tariffs may be illegal.” (12:00)

Institutional Resilience and Populist Threats

• Panelists marvel at institutions pushing back, highlighting the independence shown by Trump-appointed justices.
  • Campbell: “The absolute total disloyalty that Trump cannot stand is where it’s somebody he has appointed. They…were the key arguers on this.” (16:17)
  • Stewart: “Deeply, deeply cheering...shows that US institutions are beginning to function...the way in which populism really took off around the world...was when the courts get seized.” (17:58)
• But Campbell warns not to be complacent: much of ‘Project 2025’ (Trump’s broader domestic right-wing agenda) is already implemented with limited pushback.
  • Campbell: “We really are now looking down the barrel of somebody who wants to run this country like Putin runs Russia.” (13:15, 19:17)
  • Stewart: “What’s next? What’s he going to do with American control of tech, cloud computing, AI, sanctions policy, and the dollar payment systems?” (22:54)

Memorable Quotes

• “I have the power to destroy the country bracket if I don’t get my way.” — Alastair Campbell citing Trump (00:26, 13:15)
• “It’s his favorite instrument. It’s the thing that allows him to play the mini emperor.” — Rory Stewart (00:22, 15:25)

2. The Fall of Prince Andrew: Monarchic Scandal and Accountability

(27:56 – 42:19)

Background and Arrest

• Campbell raises the historical significance of Prince Andrew’s (now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor) arrest on misconduct in public office related to his trade envoy role, echoing institutional crises of the past.
• Discussion of media frenzy around a candid, panic-stricken photo of Andrew, reinforcing the sense of a royal “caught like a mortal human being.” (30:07)

Institutional Fallout and Monarchy’s Response

• The panel weighs the long-term implications: will this be in the history books, or fade into specialist study?
  • Stewart: “Institutions survive scandals…so I’d be very surprised if…people were going to be studying this a century from now.” (29:13)
  • Campbell: “A lot depends on what happens. If it does go to the trial of the century and a conviction, that’s a really big problem for the monarchy.” (30:07)
• The Royal Family’s strategy: rapid distancing, stripping Andrew of titles and privilege, and allowing due process rather than invoking royal privilege.
  • Stewart: “Instead of hiding behind those kinds of laws, they have moved very, very quickly to say, a, we weren’t informed, B, let them in. Let the police do their job…” (36:59)
  • Campbell: Criticizes earlier slowness, warns about implications of retrieving evidence from Andrew’s devices. (35:06, 37:20)

Broader Context: Trade Envoys and Conflicted Interests

• Discussion widens to the murky system of UK trade envoys, often appointed for political convenience and open to conflicts of interest.
  • Campbell: “You can’t say to me that there isn’t at least the route to double to conflicts of interest, which…I suspect Liam Byrne will get to the bottom of.” (38:38)

Epstein Files and Corruption

• The conversation touches on the wider scandal unleashed by Epstein’s secret files, linking elites, politicians, and businesspeople in an atmosphere of corruption, cronyism, and potential criminality.
  • Stewart: “It’s going to be a monstrous hornet’s nest…Even for people who aren’t engaged in criminal activity.” (39:17)
  • Campbell: “What happens sometimes when people are being dragged down is they want to take other people down with them.” (40:39)

Memorable Moments

• Campbell on photo: “It is just such a picture of panic, devastation...a guy who spent his entire life being entitled, obnoxious...suddenly like a mortal human being in the back of a car.” (30:07)
• Light anecdote: The story of Labour MP Eric Joyce evading police arrest due to archaic “palace immunity,” used as a humorous aside (36:07).

3. UK Schools’ White Paper and Special Educational Needs (SEND) Reform

(44:18 – 54:55)

Government Reform Proposal

• The government aims to bolster inclusion of children with special educational needs in mainstream schools, countering rising costs in specialist settings.
  • Campbell: “The principle of trying to accommodate as many children who identify with SEND in the mainstream, I think is a good one, provided that those who cannot be accommodated have the support that they need…” (48:31)
  • 1.6 million children now identify with special educational needs, cost for state-school provision at £26,000 per child; in private/independent schools, £63,000. (46:39)
• New policies include:
  • £200m for teacher training on SEND.
  • Funding incentives for mainstream schools to better accommodate SEND pupils.

Debates and Challenges

• Parental concerns: many want specialist settings citing lack of mainstream support; private equity’s role in special schools questioned.
  • Stewart: “Many parents…feeling that there isn’t good provision for their child…are pressing for them to go to a specialist school…” (45:02)
• Panelists note success stories where inclusion works but warn of resource constraints, mounting council costs, and Labour backbench pressure to preserve legal protections and provision.
  • Stewart: “We’re spending more and more of our GDP on services. We’re not as productive as we should be…” (49:33)
  • Campbell: “Both main parties accept it’s pretty broken and in need of fundamental reform.” (46:39)

Context: The Crisis of Childhood

• White paper aims to “reclaim childhood,” referencing:
  • Surge in mental health disorders: 1 in 5 children aged 8–16.
  • Sharp decline in unsupervised outdoor play, less than prisoners.
  • Concerns over sedentary lifestyles and pervasive social media/phone use.
  • Campbell: “There’s a line in the white paper about, you know, getting children to regain their childhood…useful debate about how children are spending leisure time…” (52:48)

Future of Policy and Spending

• Both parties agree reform is urgent, but funding and resource allocation will be contentious.
  • Issues of productivity, growing disability benefit costs, and political vulnerability to “hard case” lobbying discussed.

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The Supreme Court has just slapped him…right at the very core of his power.” – Rory Stewart (00:09)
• “We really are now looking down the barrel of someone who wants to run this country like Putin runs Russia.” – Alastair Campbell (13:15)
• “Institutions survive scandals…” – Rory Stewart (29:13)
• “What happens sometimes when people are being dragged down is…they want to take other people down with them.” – Alastair Campbell (40:39)
• “We’re spending more and more of our GDP on services. We’re not as productive as we should be…” – Rory Stewart (49:33)

5. Segment Timestamps

• Trump Tariffs & Supreme Court Ruling: 00:09–24:03
• Prince Andrew Arrest, Monarchy & Epstein Fallout: 27:56–42:19
• SEND & Schools White Paper: 44:18–54:55

Conclusion

This episode of "The Rest Is Politics" splits its attention between three arenas where power, law, and institutions are tested: Trump’s defeat at the hands of the Supreme Court, the UK monarchy rocked by scandal, and the challenge of inclusive education reform. Campbell and Stewart blend institutional history, policy wonkery, and personal insight; their tone is both serious and occasionally irreverent, with warnings about complacency in democracy and a wary optimism about the resilience of institutions—until the next crisis.

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