Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics – Episode 505

Title: Are Trump and Putin Underestimating Ukraine?
Date: February 25, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell (from Kyiv), Rory Stewart
Main Theme:
A wide-ranging, insider discussion of the current state of the Ukraine war on its fourth anniversary, with unique on-the-ground insight from Kyiv. The episode critically explores support and fatigue from the West, the role of Trump and Putin, the complex path to EU membership for Ukraine, and the enduring resilience, anguish, and ambitions of the Ukrainian people.

1. Ukrainian Resilience, Western Perception & On-the-Ground Reality

Key Points & Observations:

• Alistair Campbell reports live from Kyiv on the anniversary of the Russian invasion, having just attended a moving ceremony with President Zelenskyy in the Maidan (Kiev’s central square, synonymous with Ukrainian struggle for democracy).

• Impressions from Ukraine:

  • A juxtaposition of normalcy (“people just getting around their business”) and devastation (“then someone points out a cratered building where children died”) reflects daily psychological toll ([00:35], Campbell).
  • Profound sense of national pride and optimism, especially among youth, despite loss and trauma.
  • “The strongest impression I have…is just how resilient these people are. But the second is how much they hate being told that they’re resilient.” ([01:23], Campbell)
  • Ukrainians feel constant praise for resilience substitutes real, needed action from allies.

• Security & Zelenskyy:

  • The atmosphere around Zelenskyy is “phenomenally stressful;” he is “the number one target of the entire Russian machine” ([07:52], Stewart).
  • “It’s astonishing he’s still coming out in the open.” ([07:52], Stewart).

• Human Cost:

  • Both hosts remark on the powerful, tragic memorials of fallen soldiers in Maidan and the inability to comprehend the scale of casualties until seeing individual faces: “You just go on for row after row after row…” ([28:27], Campbell).
  • “It's quite difficult for us to comprehend hundreds of thousands of people. That [Winter Olympian’s helmet] was rather moving, powerful way of focusing on a dozen real examples.” ([29:24], Stewart)

2. The State of the War: Has Trump & Putin Miscalculated?

Key Points:

• Trump Administration Approach:

  • Ukrainian perception is that “Trump is on Putin’s side against Ukraine” ([21:55], Campbell).
  • US negotiation efforts under Trump and advisor Wyckoff viewed as “completely fake” and presenting “the Russian maximalist position” ([14:11], Stewart).
  • US shift from key ally to “a bystander.” ($50 billion of support cut) ([15:52], Stewart).
  • Notable quote: “The person who showed [a quote] to me says, well, this is the problem when you have a very silly man in charge of this.” ([61:20], Campbell)

• America’s Diminished Role:

  • “If the US wants to say ‘Europe isn’t our problem, Europe should step up,’... then why is Europe not leading the negotiations instead of the US?” ([16:57], Stewart)
  • European nations, UK, and others now form the real “coalition of the willing.”

• Trump & Allies Wrong on Ukraine’s Fate:

  • “Russia is a much bigger, much stronger country. America’s wasting its money... Ukraine’s got to accept that it’s inevitably beaten. ...They’ve been proved completely wrong.” ([18:50], Stewart)
  • Despite diminished US aid, Ukraine “almost in a stronger position than we thought it was in six months ago” through successful long-range strikes, innovation, and high morale.

• Putin’s Calculations & Casualties:

  • Russian casualties: over 1.2 million, with at least 325,000 dead military personnel ([25:28], Campbell).
  • “Putin doesn’t care how many soldiers he loses, except he’s really scared of having to mobilize Moscow and St Petersburg.” ([25:28], Campbell)

3. EU Membership for Ukraine: Urgency & Hard Realities

Key Points:

• Ukraine’s EU Aspirations:

  • 75% of Ukrainians say they would accept economic hardship to achieve EU membership ([09:21], Campbell).
  • “Zelensky is on the record as saying he wants to join the EU by January 1, 2027; Marta Kosk says that is impossible.” ([10:24], Campbell)

• Challenges:

  • EU enlargement process not fit for wartime urgency; new models like “gradual integration” or “reverse membership” are being discussed ([12:41], Campbell).
  • Civil society believes government moving “too slow on reform,” especially anti-corruption ([10:58], Campbell).
  • Ongoing corruption concerns—though “nobody has said Zelenskyy is personally corrupt,” yet retains some dubious figures in his inner circle ([40:35], Campbell).

• Political Tensions in the EU:

  • Hungary and Slovakia blocking vital loans, using energy dependence as leverage ([54:54], Campbell).
  • “Hungary is...objecting to the EU’s plan to loan 90 billion euros…this loan is absolutely essential to their defense.” ([54:54], Campbell)

4. On-the-Ground Vignettes & Memorable Moments

Key Scenes:

• Railway as Recovery Symbol:

  • Bombed carriage displayed at Kyiv rail station as reminder of war reality; adjacent carriages converted to children’s beds/recovery center ([35:21], Campbell).
  • “Every act of creativity is an act of resistance.” – Marta Kos ([35:21], Campbell)

• Youth Optimism:

  • 18-year-old Dorina’s words: “If you got out of bed every day and only thought about the bad things…you’d never face the day. I get up every day and say, what can I do today to help my country?” ([35:21], Campbell)

• Quote Highlight:

  • On Western praise for “resilience”:
    "Praising their resilience is like standing on the shore watching a person struggle not to drown in a riptide. Instead of sending a lifeboat to save them, you praise them for being a strong swimmer." — Elsa Court, cited by Campbell ([57:20]–[59:30])

5. Global Ripple Effects of the War

Key Insights:

• “When Russia invaded Ukraine, it’s reshaped things all the way from China to European economies to the US to the global south. It's sort of changing the world.” ([23:29]–[25:28], Stewart)
• China now dominates Russia as an economic tributary; India’s relationship shifting, European energy fundamentally reorganized; Finland and Sweden joined NATO ([23:29]–[25:28], Stewart).
• Possible new EU entrants: Iceland (possibly joining via referendum), potential domino effect on Norway ([25:28], Campbell).

6. The Politics of Perception and the Next Phase

Key Topics:

• Sanctions and Shadow Economies:

  • Ukrainian frustration at “weak” Western sanctions; “America has become a complete bystander, Europe has to step up even more.” ([48:09], Campbell)
  • Russian oil shadow fleet unsanctioned by US ([48:33], Stewart).

• Frozen Conflict Fears:

  • Concerns Trump will “freeze” the conflict, claim a deal, but leave Ukraine “incredibly vulnerable” ([50:24], Campbell).

• Electoral Realities:

  • Holding elections amid martial law, mass displacement, and cyber threats deemed near impossible ([54:05], Campbell).

7. Summing Up: Four Takeaways

([60:03], Stewart)

1. Scale of destruction and horror – “Being on the ground is showing you simply the scale…”
2. Ukrainian optimism and drive
3. US increasingly unpopular, marginal, and less relevant
4. Demand for meaningful support, not just admiration – “Stop simply sympathizing and admiring…concentrate on what we can do…provide financial support and allow Ukrainians to take more risk.” ([61:20], Stewart)

Campbell adds:

• Ukrainians deeply appreciate European and UK support but worry Europe is “still beholden to the idea the Americans are in charge.”
• “We are never going to be Russian. We don’t want to live like Russians, we are European.” ([62:31], Campbell)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Western inaction:
  “Praising their resilience is like standing on the shore watching a person struggle not to drown in a riptide. Instead of sending a lifeboat to save them, you praise them for being such a strong swimmer.”—Elsa Court, cited by Campbell [57:20–59:30]

• Zelenskyy’s Security Reality:
  “He is the number one target of the entire Russian machine… Astonishing he’s still coming out in the open.” — Stewart [07:52]

• Trump’s Position:
  “Real Ukrainians are basically saying...Trump is on Putin’s side against Ukraine.” — Campbell [21:55]

• On EU Expansion Urgency:
  “If we lose this war, you lose this war as well. Therefore you’ve got to do everything to get us into your orbit.”—Civil society view via Campbell [10:58]

Conclusion:

This episode offers a raw, detailed, and deeply empathetic look at the ongoing war in Ukraine, blending sharp political analysis with vivid, human stories from Kyiv itself. It exposes Western fatigue, skepticism about American leadership under Trump, and a sense of European opportunity and obligation. The hosts do not shy from the moral and practical ambiguities, illuminating both the heroism and the suffering of the Ukrainian people and urging international partners to go far beyond admiration and rhetoric.

Table of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:35–01:23 | Daily realities and psychology in Kyiv | | 07:52 | Zelenskyy’s personal risk and security | | 09:21–10:58 | Ukraine’s EU aspirations and public sentiment | | 12:41 | Gradual integration/"reverse membership" for EU accession | | 14:11–18:50 | Trump/Wyckoff’s "fake" negotiations and flawed assumptions | | 25:28 | The human cost: casualties and memorials | | 35:21 | Railway station vignette: recovery, resilience, and optimism | | 40:35–44:40 | Corruption, reform, and Zelenskyy’s critics | | 48:09 | Sanctions and the Russian shadow fleet | | 54:54 | Hungary’s EU loan block and energy leverage | | 57:20–59:30 | Critique of “resilience” narrative (Elsa Court quote) | | 60:03–62:31 | Stewart’s takeaways and Campbell’s European reflections |

(End of summary)