511. Is Blair Undermining Starmer on Iran? (Question Time)

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics

Episode 511: Is Blair Undermining Starmer on Iran? (Question Time)

Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
Date: March 11, 2026

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Overview

In this episode of "The Rest Is Politics," Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart take listener questions on the rapidly evolving crisis in Iran, focusing on Tony Blair's comments about Keir Starmer's response, the wider ramifications of U.S., UK, and Israeli actions, and the challenge of navigating international alliances in a new geopolitical era. With deep dives into the UK's foreign policy, historical analogies, and the reality on the ground in Iran, this episode offers insider analysis and frank debate on the most consequential crisis in recent years.

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Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. Blair vs. Starmer: The Role of Former PMs in Foreign Policy

• Tony Blair's Comments: Did he undermine Starmer, and if so, how?
  • Alastair Campbell: Defends Blair by stating headlines were exaggerated, but acknowledges Blair was not sensitive enough to the political context and the audience he was addressing—a pro-Israel Jewish News fundraiser ([04:19]).
  • Rory Stewart: Suggests Blair "strongly, strongly gave the impression" he would have backed Trump and Israel more than Starmer, fueling negative headlines for Starmer and making his difficult position even harder ([00:09], [02:39], [03:35]).
  • Both concur: experienced ex-PMs should know there’s rarely truly ‘off the record’, especially on live issues like this ([02:45], [03:21], [08:15]).

"There is no such thing as off the record. There is no such thing as Chatham House Rule."
– Alastair Campbell ([02:45])

2. UK Position and Cabinet Turmoil Over Iran

• Confusion and Leaks: Uncertainty over UK’s response and internal disagreements:
  • Rory Stewart: Points out contradictory leaks about cabinet members' stances, suggesting a lack of clarity or unity ([09:51]).
  • Alastair Campbell: Flags the dangers of leaks during security crises, and the need for communications discipline ([14:26]).

"It is a time when you have to have absolute grip on the communications. You can't have people... What the hell are they all doing?"
– Alastair Campbell ([14:26])

• UK’s Military Role: No British assets used in initial attacks; ongoing debate over cooperation with U.S ([11:37]).

3. Broader Transatlantic Tensions

• Europe’s Growing Assertion: Both hosts advocate for more independent European foreign policy.
  • Rory Stewart: Outlines a narrative for Europe to stop being U.S. "lackeys" and suggests the UK and EU need a respectful distance, leveraging U.S. dependence on allies ([16:33], [17:01], [20:01]).
  • Alastair Campbell: Supports creating “a new definition of international law”; emphasizes values-based alliances involving, for example, Canada, Australia, and Korea ([21:53]).

"We need a narrative. We need some way of respectfully saying to the U.S. we’re distancing ourselves. We're not going to be your lackeys anymore."
– Rory Stewart ([20:29])

4. Historical Perspectives & What Churchill Might Do

• Reflection on Leadership: Citing Churchill, they debate the ideals of sovereign action and when the UK should intervene abroad.
  • Rory Stewart: Churchill would articulate values and interests clearly against being a U.S. “mini-me” ([27:22]).
  • Alastair Campbell: Highlights the cautionary lessons of past entanglements and the dangers of war driven by impulse ([30:11]).

5. Situation in Iran: Realities on the Ground

• Limited Information: Communications blackout makes reliable reporting difficult ([31:55]).
• Public Sentiment: Majority of Iranians detest the regime but are now caught between oppressive leadership and being targets of U.S. and Israeli military strikes ([33:45], [34:12]).
• Complex Identities: The diversity and divisions within Iranian society complicate assumptions about public opinion or opposition ([34:50], [35:55]).
• Regime Stability: Attacks may be reinforcing the regime’s strength through nationalism, not weakening it ([38:57]).

6. UK and European Defence Capabilities

• Military Decline: The disintegration of UK armed forces capacity since the Cold War highlighted as a major issue jeapordizing future autonomy ([24:27], [25:17]).

"We have more than halved our Army, Navy, Air Force since the height of the Cold War. And that's just a fact..."
– Alastair Campbell ([24:27])

7. Media, Political Framing, and the Long Game

• Media Influence: The narrative around ‘victory’ and war’s end is being dictated by Trump through a few, often impulsive, remarks ([36:36], [37:29]).
• Political Implications for Britain:
  • Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK—demonstrated by polling across political parties ([37:59]).
  • Starmer’s cautious stance aligns with popular sentiment, even as he faces intense political attacks ([37:59]).

8. Brexit, Sovereignty, and Hypocrisy

• Farage, Tice, Rees-Mogg Called Out: Hosts highlight the contradiction between Brexiters’ calls for sovereignty from the EU and their desire to align automatically with U.S. actions ([47:52]).

"One almost gets the impression that their worldview is they don't like being told what to do by the French and the Germans, but they want to be told what to do by the US and Israel."
– Rory Stewart ([48:28])

9. Israel’s Domestic Politics

• Netanyahu’s Resilience: Recent war has boosted Netanyahu’s prospects, with even his usual opponents rallying behind him ([45:31]).

10. Europe’s Division and the Far Right

• Fragmentation Risks: Europe’s lack of unity is seen as a strategic opportunity for powers seeking to divide and weaken it ([50:47]).
• Rising Far Right: Economic shocks from the crisis benefit far-right parties across Europe, a trend likely to continue ([53:04]).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Blair's Comments:

  "Tony should have been a lot more sensitive... This was a Jewish news fundraiser. This is a very, very pro-Israel audience."
  – Alastair Campbell ([04:19])

• On Cabinet Discord:

  "It doesn't seem to me as though those stories feel like a clean, clear decision tree. They feel like an almighty disagreement within the Cabinet."
  – Rory Stewart ([09:51])

• On Iran's Predicament:

  "They are now feeling like they are on the receiving end of a massive American Israeli war. And that is, psychologically, I'd have thought, pretty crushing."
  – Alastair Campbell ([34:12])

• On Europe Standing Up:

  "We've got to be able to not be dragged into whatever mad adventures Trump or his successors want to pursue."
  – Rory Stewart ([20:29])

• On Brexit and U.S. Alignment:

  "They argued that Brexit was about taking back control... Yet many...are now arguing the UK should automatically follow the United States in the Iran crisis."
  – Listener question paraphrased by Alastair Campbell / Rory Stewart ([47:52]-[49:43])

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Key Timestamps

• [00:09] – Opening framing: Blair’s stance, Trump’s pressure, media headlines
• [02:06] – Listener question on Blair and Starmer
• [04:19] – Context: Blair’s event, audience sensitivities
• [09:51] – Cabinet leaks and confusion over UK’s Iran strategy
• [11:37] – What British military did or didn’t actually do
• [14:26] – The perils of Cabinet leaking during war
• [16:33] – Europe’s possible new narrative: autonomy from U.S.
• [20:29] – Europe’s potential leverage vs. U.S. over Iran
• [24:27] – Decline in UK military forces
• [27:22] – Churchill’s political philosophy and application to Trump
• [31:55] – What’s happening on the ground in Iran (listener question)
• [34:12] – Iranian diaspora view: “two wars at once”
• [38:57] – Regime hardening post-strikes, leadership analysis
• [45:31] – Israeli domestic politics, Netanyahu’s revived popularity
• [47:52] – Brexiters caught aligning with U.S., hypocrisy on sovereignty
• [53:04] – Economic and political impacts in Europe; rise of the far right and final reflections

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Conclusion

Campbell and Stewart dissect a uniquely perilous geopolitical moment, balancing analysis of political maneuvering in Westminster with a wide lens on shifting world order, values, European cohesion, and the human cost within Iran. They voice concern about media narratives shaped by a few powerful men, the ongoing fragmentation of Western alliances, and the difficult choices facing UK politics in an increasingly dangerous world.

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For further reading, the hosts suggest:

• Vali Nasr’s NYT article on Iranian nationalism
• Gerard Russell on Iranian society
• Winston Churchill’s “Sinews of Peace” speech

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Next Week: The hosts tease follow-up discussions on the repercussions of economic shocks and the changing tide of European and UK politics post-Iran crisis.

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Transcript

[Alastair Campbell]

Thanks for listening to the Rest Is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com

[Rory Stewart]

that's therestispolitics.com Blair has strongly, strongly, given the impression that he would have been much more strongly behind what Trump and Israel are doing in Iran than Keir Starmer.

[Alastair Campbell]

If you are any former prime minister, but I would argue, particularly Tony Blair in this context where a Labour Prime Minister has got a particular difficulty with the American President, then there is no such thing as off the record.

[Rory Stewart]

We need some way of saying to the U.S. we're distancing ourselves. We're not going to be your lackeys anymore. You've just strengthened Russia's hand by pushing up the oil price. You've weakened Ukraine by taking Patriot missiles out. You've weakened our own economies. With respect, you tell us to look after ourselves, stand on our own two feet, be proud national Europeans. Our priority is this. We're not having anything to do with this.

[Alastair Campbell]

Welcome to the Rest Is Politics Question time with me, Alastair Campbell.

[Rory Stewart]

And with me, Rory Stewart.

[Alastair Campbell]

And as with the main episode that we did live yesterday, we are going to be focusing entirely on Iran. We have had thousands of questions from you and it is such a consequential and amazing.

[Rory Stewart]

And actually, I mean, even on the live show we got a huge amount of questions, but we've also had people sending them in by, I guess, email. All different social media platforms. Discord. I mean, it's been incredible. I want to start, though, with Jennifer, who's a TRIP member. Thank you, Jennifer, very much. Thank you. Thank you for subscribing from New Malden. What do you make of Alastor's former boss commenting on Starmer's reluctance to join the Orange man and his seemingly impulsive war in Iran? There's a lot of adjectives going on here, Jennifer. I know that post Brexit, the unspoken policy of ex Prime Ministers not commenting on their successors seems to have gone out of the window. But to me, it seems particularly vicious to kick Starmer when he's already down, especially when on this occasion, most British people believe he's right. Has being on the Orange Man's Board of Peace gone to Blair's head? Or is he now bored of peace?

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay, well, I'll put the case to the defence, then. I'll put the case to the prosecution.

[Rory Stewart]

Very good.

[Alastair Campbell]

In a good sort of, you know, fancy balanced way. So the case for the defence is that Tony is Adamant he didn't say the things that the headline said he said. In other words, the headlines were, Blair rebukes Starmer. Blair admonishes Starmer. Blair says Starmer a week. And he says he said none of that. What he did say was that in an ideal world, Britain would be alongside the Americans in these foreign policy adventures

[Rory Stewart]

and that he suggested that he personally, had he been Prime Minister, would have been squarely behind the US in this particular position.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I don't even know that he said that. Now, what he hasn't done is denied saying some of the things that he's reported as saying because he's assuming, and this is where I make the case for the prosecution, if you are any former Prime Minister, but I would argue, particularly Tony Blair in this context, where a Labour Prime Minister has got a particular difficulty ongoing with the American President, then you are a very, very skilled, very, very experienced politician. There is no such thing as off the record. There is no such thing as Chatham House Rule. It said in the papers it was a Chatham House event. There's no such thing.

[Rory Stewart]

Sure.

[Alastair Campbell]

So my sense is that as much through body language and tone, he gave enough to the Mail, the Telegraph, etcetera, Whoever was taping the thing to run the headlines that they did, which was not good.

[Rory Stewart]

To Keir Starr, just to. Sorry. In very, very basic terms, the story seems to be that Blair has strongly, strongly given the impression, whether he exactly said this or not, that he would have been much more strongly behind what Trump and Israel are doing in Iran than Keir Starmer. And if he'd been in charge, the implication at least was that Britain would have opened up these air bases, got behind it. And the suggestion is that he's worried that Starmer hasn't done enough to support the US and that's Trump's line, too, which makes it even more complicated because Trump also has been going around saying that Starmer's not exactly Churchill, we used to be a great ally, and has basically been insulting Starmer, saying he's not been strong enough with Israel.

[Alastair Campbell]

Right. And that is why, in my view, Tony should have been a lot more sensitive. Whatever he said and however he said it to the notion that there would be people in that room. This was a Jewish news fundraiser. This is a very, very pro Israel audience. Israel is much more in favor of what's happening in Iran than the UK or Europe or indeed the United States.

[Rory Stewart]

Why is Tony speaking at a fundraiser for Jewish news?

[Alastair Campbell]

Probably because he supports the. Some of the causes that they support. And I'VE said to you before. One of the reasons I actually don't mind him being involved in the Board of Peace, because I think he is one of the few people who genuinely has access to all of the sides in this debate and does at least care about the future of Gaza in a way that I'm not convinced that Kushner and Witkoff and Trump remotely do. But I just felt when I got the pig on my phone, I just thought, oh, God. I mean, Keir Starmark can't do without this.

[Rory Stewart]

And to be fair, John Major would not be tempted to do that kind of thing. He's been much more careful, hasn't he? I mean, the interventions from people like Major were very, very limited in control. Certainly when we were in government, I mean, you were not worrying.

[Alastair Campbell]

He had a lot goes at Boris Johnson.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, until Boris Johnson. But that's because he had been very loyal with Cameron and May and with Johnson, he thought he'd completely overstepped the mark on Brexit. So when Major decided to do it, it was. He was putting the boot into somebody he thought was a terrible prime minister. So very, very odd. Rishi Sunak's come of what Trump's doing, or seems to have done, judging by the headlines in the newspapers.

[Alastair Campbell]

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[Alastair Campbell]

be careful with these things because there is something, I mean, forget Johnson and Truss, but the sort of serious former prime ministers, Tony, John Major, etc. Theresa May, they will think very, very carefully before intervening in a domestic political, a live domestic political issue. Partly because when they do, it should carry weight and have impact. They shouldn't become kind of rent a quote. And it's perfectly clear to me that Tony did not imagine, and this is where I think he made a mistake. He did not imagine that this was going to become a big thing in the newspapers. So he sort of indicated, yeah, well, basically I'm probably more on the American side than the British government.

[Rory Stewart]

Is that interesting? Just to be mean for a second. I mean, is it really? If you were listening to that and he was sitting in Downing street in the comms department listening to you, would they not be saying, come off it, Alistair, for God's sake, I mean, every time a minister said to you, oh, I didn't realize it was gonna be a big thing in the newspapers, you would say, grow up, you're a senior politician.

[Alastair Campbell]

You know exactly what you're talking about.

[Rory Stewart]

And the idea that Blair with all his experience gets to say, ooh, whoops, I thought it was Chatham House rules. I didn't know this would be a big.

[Alastair Campbell]

He's saying that. I think that was what they was then sort of put out there. Look, I don't think he would want. He would not have wanted the set of Sunday newspaper headlines that we got. He would not be wanting to make Keir Starmer's life even more difficult. Now there is a case. Matt Kelly, the editor of the New World, he's done his whole podcast and this is the best sort of PR gift to Keir Starme because Tony Blair is seen as negative vis a vis Iraq. And this is Keir Starmer doing something Different. I think number 10 could have done without it. No doubt about that. And I also think, maybe to go to the point that Jennifer's making, I do think you and I argued about the way that they got there. But I do think Keir Starmer's ended up in broadly the right position for the uk. He doesn't want to be falling out with Trump. Now he has fallen out with Trump. They had a phone call that apparently went reasonably well, but not great. Trump does think that asking for the use of a base is not that big a deal when you're an ally. And he thinks that being told you can't use a particular base at a particular time was a really bad move by the Brits. But can he get over that? Keir Starmer and I asked to try to rebuild that relationship.

[Rory Stewart]

There's a lot of very complicated reporting coming out from the Cabinet and a lot of Cabinet leaks going on where there was a story about Ed Miliband being very much against using US bases and John Healey being in favor of favor. And then a lot of briefing coming from people close to Starmer saying he decided one thing on Thursday. These are people that's close, but who are not on his side saying he decided one thing Thursday, Friday, and then he changed his mind on Saturday. And then you have other people in Downing street saying the US didn't request on Thursday, Friday, so he only agreed to it on Saturday. It doesn't seem to me as though those stories feel like a clean, clear decision tree. They feel like an almighty disagreement within the Cabinet about what they're going to do and a lot of uncertainty about what US was requesting, when they were requesting it. What's going on? Here's another fact that was interesting to me, which is just how much these bases are being used anyway. So the Daily Mail did some pretty good reporting on what was happening in Prestwick, which is owned by the Scottish government. So they discovered that at this base, Prestwick Airport, in the build up. So the implication is not, after the operation started, There were already 10 F35s, American F35s, the big attack aircraft, two A10 Warthogs, two C17. As, to make the story even more complicated, it was not me. Anyway, it appears that the US was just using all these bases anyway. So him saying one day you can't use them, the next day you can use them for defensive purposes. I also still don't quite really understand what that means. I mean, does that mean to defend US missile bases and radar stations from Iranian attack. In which case, are you saying it's not justifiable for Iranians to attack US radar stations if they're defending themselves?

[Alastair Campbell]

My understanding of what they didn't agree to was British assets being used in the initial attacks on Iran.

[Rory Stewart]

So no British planes flying.

[Alastair Campbell]

Correct.

[Rory Stewart]

Right.

[Alastair Campbell]

And now does that mean that there weren't British assets that are used under our everyday 247 defence arrangements of the US? Probably, which is the point you were making. So actually there was one of the. I saw on one of the. I think it was cnn, they were filming from Fairford and talking about whether they could use this base and you could see stuff coming and going and you're thinking, that is not a civilian aircraft I'm looking at there. I do think on this, I think we've got to be really careful to. I mean, I said last week, I thought you were being quite harsh on Kieran, quite unfair. I think we are in this very, very weird political environment. So yesterday, for example, Rachel Reeves stands up in the House of Commons and makes a statement about the economic impact, the level of coming from the Tories and from reform and from the Lib Dems of, you know, you're making a complete mess of this and you haven't done this and why aren't you doing this? There's no sort of understanding of just how tough this is right now. And likewise for Keir Starmer. I mean, you and I weren't at the National Security Council meeting. It is terrible if somebody is briefing out of that. Truly terrible. Rightly, Theresa May sacked Cabinet ministers. So. And I think what usually happens whenever you're reading a partial, tendentious account of meetings, it's always worth asking, who benefits from the way that this is being projected now? Because Keir Starmer is kind of public enemy number one in the eyes of most of the right wing, in of our media, he becomes the one who's slighted and projected as being weak in this context, I don't know. What I do know is that there was a pretty robust discussion about all of the consequences which you would expect if you go through what we've just go through all the things that we talked about yesterday on the main podcast, of all the things where we said, did Trump even think about this, even think about that? I would hope that the British National Security Council would think through consequences for environment, consequences for desalination, consequences for oil, consequences for the sort of geostrategic alliances that we have. Does that mean then that because Minister A says one thing and Minister B Says something else. And Minister C, or even worse, may I suggest an official, starts to brief the media and Tim Shipman, the journalist who wrote it, Tim Shipman, he's written these books that sort of chronicle the Tory years. But I think we've got. Stop pretending that just because you're Tim Shipman. I'm not maligning Tim Shipman in any way here, but it doesn't mean that you have got a full account. And just because you've written it under Michael Gove's banner in the Spectator does not mean it's all accurate.

[Rory Stewart]

No, I don't think it's 100% accurate. But it is also true that certainly when I was in government, Tim had a lot of people on Speeddale and there are lots of MPs who'll be talking to him and giving him.

[Alastair Campbell]

Which is just. Can I just make a point? Because having been involved in one or two of these war situations, it is a time when you have to have absolute grip on the communications. You can't have people. I'm always amazed when I see these TV reporters and this. And I got a WhatsApp from this message, this minister, and I got a WhatsApp from that minister, and I got this and that and the other. What the hell are they all doing?

[Rory Stewart]

No, I agree.

[Alastair Campbell]

If you're in this situation, you have to have an agreed approach. And then you.

[Rory Stewart]

It's completely shocking. And as you say, Gavin Williamson was fired for doing this, but I was really struck as a minister, how angry. I remember Tim Shipman getting very angry with me because I wouldn't talk, and him saying, I don't see how you're presenting yourself as an insurgent candidate running to be the Prime Minister if you're not talking to journalists. So the deal, which Liz Truss benefited from, is the more that you have a good relationship, the more they promote you. And so if you are Wes reading, or you're Angela Rainer or, I don't know, you're Shybana Mahmoud, you're thinking, well, these connections help to boost my stock. We have to remain with the big story and not get caught into the weeds of this too much. And I think there are two big stories. One of them is, this is an illegal, immoral war. So it doesn't make any sense in international law. But it's also, as Talley Rong would say, right, it's not just a crime, right. It's stupidity. This is something which is going to go badly wrong.

[Alastair Campbell]

Do you think Trump has heard of Talleyrand?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, he thinks about him a lot. So the key point here is that it's going to almost certainly create a repressive regime in Iran, it's going to shake the economies of the Middle east, it's going to make Britain's economy struggle, Europe's economy struggle, and it's achieving next to nothing. That's the big story. Should a British prime minister be supporting this China war? Absolutely not. Not least because the way that Trump and Netanyahu has done it is flagrantly undermining international.

[Alastair Campbell]

But should he be saying it in the terms that you've just said it? Because that's where you and I disagree.

[Rory Stewart]

No, no, I don't think he should be saying it in those terms. I think what he should have said, and I think it's a difficult line, but it's got to be the line going forward for all these guys, right? Which is to say to the U.S. you've said from the beginning that you want to retreat from Europe because you want to focus on China, you want us to focus on our own backyard, you want us to take on Russia, and guess what? We're doing it. You've taken $50 billion out. We've taken responsibility for that. You want us to be sovereign, you want us to be independent. You want to stand on the right.

[Alastair Campbell]

By the way, you're making it more expensive for us right now.

[Rory Stewart]

And by the way, you've just strengthened Russia's hand by pushing up the oil price. You've weakened Ukraine by taking Patriot missiles out. You've weakened our own economies. So, with respect, you tell us to look after ourselves, stand on our own two feet, be proud national Europeans. Our priority is this. We're not having anything to do with this.

[Alastair Campbell]

I mentioned yesterday's book. You can't read it because it's in German, but this, honestly, has got to be translated into English. It's a really important book. I think the Grown Up Land, Germany Without Immigration. But I found this amazing account. This is when Merkel was Chancellor and Jared Kushner was in the little team, and they were doing all the small talk before the big meeting started. And this guy, Christoph Heusgen, who is an advisor to Angela Merkel, and he's having this discussion with Kushner. And Kushner says as follows. We're business people in business. One day somebody's your friend, and the next day they're your enemy. That's how our foreign policy is going to work. That's at the very first meeting with the German Chancellor.

[Rory Stewart]

Now, honestly, you've talked a lot about middle powers in response. We both have, and what that narrative could be. And you've been challenging me on this response. I don't think it's just a question for the uk. And Nick Osler, who's a TRIP member, has a question on this. With three years left of Trump's chaotic presidency, should Starmer and other world leaders stop tiptoeing and start calling out his childish, unpredictable and dangerous actions? The usual strategy of ignoring insults and hoping flattery works doesn't seem to be preventing real damage to the world order. Has the time come to speak plainly about the Emperor's lack of clothes?

[Alastair Campbell]

I mean, that does, in a way, speak to the different challenges that are posed to people like us, who can say what we want and say what we think, and people who are actually involved day to day in the art of statecraft and trying to build alliances. But I think, for example, just two quick examples that relate to this. We talked on the main episode yesterday about this school that's been hit in, that was hit on the day one, 150 people killed, many of them very, very small children. Trump is lying about it. He is. Now he's basically saying, oh, well, we think it was Iran. He's the only person who's saying that. He was actually, to be fair to a reporter, he was directly challenged about it yesterday and he said, oh, well, there's a report. We'll see what the report is. But I think there comes a point where other leaders actually have to step up and say, look, if we cannot even tell the truth about mistakes that are being made in this war, then we cannot possibly tell the truth about the bigger picture. And so I think those sorts of things. And maybe we're off to Spain tomorrow to see the Prime Minister of Spain. Maybe it's the sort of thing that he could do. But I think it really does speak to just how hard this is when you know if you have a go at Trump, he's going to make you pay a price. Yeah, you've got to balance that all the time.

[Rory Stewart]

It is also fascinating because I think we're also learning that, of course, we're very dependent on the us, but the US is actually quite dependent on us. It's no accident that he went ballistic when the Spanish Prime Minister didn't let him use his air bases, or that he put so much pressure on Starmer to let him use British air bases. The idea that the US can just do what it wants around the world isn't quite true. It does depend on allies and that gives the allies more leverage than they realize.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, well. And they will get more of that leverage if they come together.

[Rory Stewart]

We've got to do two things. We've got to be able to not be dragged into whatever mad adventures Trump or his successors want to pursue if they're not on our interests. And secondly, we've got to slowly be able to become more independent of the US Stand on our own two feet, Tech, AI, defense, et cetera. And we need a narrative. We need some way of respectfully saying to the U.S. we're distancing ourselves. We're not going to be your lackeys anymore. You don't get to help yourself to Greenland. And we're going to start separating ourselves from usai Tech, Defense. What's the best communication strategy for that? What's the best way of articulating that? And we've got to do it together. Because if we don't do it together and we don't have a joint statement from Europe, UK and Canada, what he'll do is he'll divide and rule. What we'll find is, when it suits him, he'll offer a nice trade deal to Keir Starmer and make Starmer feel he's got a special relationship. And when it suits him, he'll sit down with Metz, the German chancellor, in the White House, and Metz will say supportive things. And goodness knows, he may even be able to get Mark Carney to say supportive things. And he will do this again and again and again. If Spain comes against him, he'll punish them on tariffs and trade. So what I'm looking for is, is there a narrative? And is the narrative the one that I'm trying to sell, which is you told us that we needed to stand our own two feet, and this is us standing on our own two feet?

[Alastair Campbell]

I think that is part of the narrative. I think the bigger narrative goes to something else we've talked about in the last few weeks, which is values. What I really liked about the Modi Carney statement was that it was essentially a response to what Trump's doing without talking about Trump. It was this really long, detailed agreement that they reached across so many different aspects of their economies and their business landscapes. And I think it was a really, really, really impressive piece of work. And I think we need something really big on that front. So, for example, whether there is a case to be made for the revival of human rights, whether there is a case to be made for the revival of international law, a new definition of international law where somebody like Keir Starmer gets together with a Carney, possibly with the Australians, possibly with the Koreans, and says, you know, we're all being challenged in this. Let's redefine what it is. Americans want to be part of it, fine. If they don't, they don't.

[Rory Stewart]

And are you mentioning that we try to hold together a pretty consistent coalition of joint statements, or is it going to be little ad hoc on this one, Korea, Canada, Britain, on that one, France, Germany, whatever. I mean, how's this going to operate?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I think partly this is a result of the kind of the pace of the world that we're in. So, for example, yesterday he had a situation with five women Iranian footballers who have been decided they want to stay in Australia. Okay? So that becomes a, that becomes an issue which Trump decides to get involved in, because it's a way of saying, Iran bad, America good. So I said to the Australian Prime Minister, you've got to help these people out. That could happen in any country in the world. I think it makes more sense that Albanese, rather than sort of thinking about that on the hoof, is thinking, right, well, what would we do if this was Canada, if this was Britain, if this was Korea, if this was New Zealand? And we start to kind of think through some of these scenario planning situations. Because the thing we know about Trump is he does operate according to impulse. He just sees that situation, women football World Cups coming down. I've got to get involved.

[Rory Stewart]

And I suppose there are two big pictures that all these leaders can begin to develop. Number one is more independence from the U.S. so define the 10 things that the U.S. has a chokehold over us from.

[Alastair Campbell]

And by the way, that's hard. Your AI series undermines how hard that is. Very Defense is hard, AI is hard,

[Rory Stewart]

Quantum's hard, Very hard. But if we're going to do it, what's that five, ten year plan? What are the steps we're going to take to get there? And I suppose the second thing is, what are the new rules? Because we need some rules, we need some laws, we need some norms, we need some idea of how things operate. And we'll know consistently that those are the two things. With Trump, he will be weaponizing any form of dependence and he'll be breaking every form of norm.

[Alastair Campbell]

And just before we go to the next question, on the kind of military thing, I was just looking last night, so. And it is honestly your old party, Roy, they are pretty nauseating the way they're sort of blaming Keir Starmer for the state of our armed forces. So 1993, height of the Cold War, we had a combined armed forces across the three services of 321,000. Okay. By the time we got to the Iraq war, we're on 207,000 and we're now on 125,680. So we have more than halved, well, more than halved our army, navy, air force since the height of the Cold War. And that's just a fact that we are now going to have to deal with and address in a way that means really difficult decisions for government.

[Rory Stewart]

So a guy called Tom Sharp was writing in the Telegraph about trying to think about UK naval responses and it's completely astonishing. You know, it's basically one ship that they're all talking about called HMS Dragon.

[Alastair Campbell]

One ship which is going next week, right?

[Rory Stewart]

There's one submarine, one working attack submarine, which was recently in Australia, which hopefully is beginning to steam its way back. There's an aircraft carrier, HMS Prince Wales, but it ain't going anywhere at the moment cause we're not really sure how to defend. It's only one out of two of those. We are supposed to have a non combat evacuation ship, but that is in extended readiness in Gibraltar. And extended readiness seems to be a spin phrase for not operating. And the last one of our four mine hunters made it back without a crew, carried by another vessel back to the uk. And that's the end of all our minehunters. So what can we actually do in Hormuz? We can't do any mine hunting because we don't have any mine hunters. We can't do any civilian evacuation. We haven't got a civilian evacuation ship. Our single submarine is pottering over from Australia. We hope we don't know it's under the water. Our aircraft carrier can't move. And this thing called HMS Dragon appears to be the entire British Navy.

[Alastair Campbell]

Your fault, your government's fault.

[Rory Stewart]

All our faults. Yeah, all our faults, okay.

[Alastair Campbell]

But it's a fact and that's where we are going to have to face up to that. So when you say what's the overall strategy? There has to be a defence strategy that's part of this. Now, we both said Trump had a point in saying NATO countries have to step up more than they are. But even by their own definition of what stepping up means, they're not going to fill that gap anytime soon.

[Rory Stewart]

No, no, no.

[Alastair Campbell]

Right. Roy, Irene from Toronto, we had a lot of response to the talk about Churchill in the main podcast. Eighty years ago, Churchill said in his Sinews of Peace speech, it is not our duty at this time, when difficulties are so numerous, to interfere forcibly in the internal affairs of countries which we have not conquered in war. Has our duty changed? If it has, in what circumstances can we justify that interference? It is an amazing speech, by the way, when you go, I went back and read. It's just you talk about kind of the stuff of history. There are so many elements to that speech.

[Rory Stewart]

One of the things that's so interesting about him is that we forget how experienced he was. By the time he's speaking out in the 30s, let alone after the war, he's already been Home Secretary, Chancellor, Colony Secretary, First Lord of the Admiralty. I mean, he's been in and out of cabinets of all colors for almost 30 years. And he's also a guy who made his whole career about very clear big ideas. Values were right at the heart of it. So when he's talking about Hitler, and this is why I'm interested in how he would deal with Trump, my guess is he wouldn't just keep quiet, flatter, keep his head down and try to do things in the background. He would find a way of articulating clearly values, British interests, alliances, and framing what he thinks the future of that relationship over the next 20, 30 years. Isn't I? So what I'm looking for in the Churchill moment is somebody who can say to the US, look, of course, you are going to be a very, very important ally for us for the next 20 years. But equally, the world in which you tell us what to do and we're just a mini me for the United States is over. And we're now going to explain what that new world could look like where we stand proud and tall, and we're better allies for you as a result.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, I also think he would in relation to Ukraine. And I mean, there was Trump yesterday, did a phone call with Putin. The top line when he came out was he's trying to be helpful. He's trying to be helpful. He's basically giving the Iranians all the intelligence.

[Rory Stewart]

Why would he be trying to be helpful? I mean, obviously, Putin is not trying to be helpful. I mean, obviously for Putin and Xi Jinping, this is a dream. Right.

[Alastair Campbell]

Particularly for Putin because his oil price was in the toilet.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. No, it's absolutely brilliant. Sanctions are being lifted, his revenue's going up, Russia's getting richer, all the missiles that could be fired.

[Alastair Campbell]

Trump's picking up the phone to say, what do you think we should do?

[Rory Stewart]

Fired at Iran. Right. So he gets to play every which way he can Be like, this is what she should do. And meanwhile, under the table, Putin can screw him over.

[Alastair Campbell]

Exactly. So I think Churchill would have been onto that, and I think he would have been onto the impact, the worrying impact upon Ukraine and why it was in our interest as the UK and Europe to be very much on that side.

[Rory Stewart]

It's such a sign of desperation and weakness, though the example, and Churchill did point to this, the example before the war was some of his colleagues absolutely desperate to try to get Mussolini's advice on how to deal with Hitler and hoping that if they were nice to Mussolini and Abyssinia, he'd somehow help them against Hitler. And Churchill was saying consistently, you're out of your mind. It doesn't work like that.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. You know the famous picture of Stalin and Roosevelt and Churchill where Churchill's sort of sitting down, he looks quite bored and he's sitting down. That's Tehran.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

So, I mean, the way that he read is part of this, this story. But he also, he had this wonderful thing, he said, this is where the meeting where he realized that he was sitting between the great Russian bear and the great American buffalo, while Britain was resembling the poor little British donkey. So his observation about the special relationship, it was as much a plea for the special relationship as opposed to. It's become known as a definition of the special relationship. Anyway, I think, yeah, Churchill, I don't know, he also did. He was the one who said that whenever you go to war, you end up at the mercy of malignant fortune, ugly surprises and awful miscalculations, which, again, I don't think Trump thinks in those terms.

[Rory Stewart]

No, it seems so. Good. Well, let's take a quick break and then I think what we should do maybe is come back to what's happening on the ground in Iran, because, as I say, we tend to look at this from 10,000ft. And actually, right at the heart of this is the experience of people in Iran at the moment.

[Alastair Campbell]

Cool. See you in a bit.

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[Rory Stewart]

Welcome back to the Rest Is Politics Question Time with me, Rory Stewart, and me, Alistair Campbell.

[Alastair Campbell]

And Rory, as if by magic, Lorcan of London said, what is actually unfolding inside Iran right now. I love the way that our listeners assume that we will be able to answer questions like that.

[Rory Stewart]

The first answer, Lorcan, is we'd be bluffing if we said we completely knew, because Internet's down often, telephone's down often. It's really difficult talking to people in Iran. An Iranian friend of mine managed to get through to his mother yesterday. Another one of my neighbors managed to talk to someone in Tehran. So what am I hearing from them? They sound a random anecdotal. First thing is their experience is they think that the US Is mostly striking military sites, ballistic missile sites. Israel seems to be. But how on earth they differentiate an Israeli bomb from an American bomb, I have no idea. But anyway, their understanding is that it's Israel that's mostly hitting the government offices. And. And one of the things that you will realize when you go to Tehran is that these government offices and even go to Shiraz are right in the middle of town, and there's residential neighborhoods all the way around. It's not actually quite like hitting Whitehall here. It's much, much more integrated into civilian life. Second thing we talked about yesterday, what's happened in the leadership change. So the Iranian people overwhelmingly detest this regime. 80, 90% of the Iranian people want to see this horrible regime gone because for almost half a century, they have been ruled by an increasingly brutal, cynical, repressive, theocratic regime, but there isn't any credible opposition on the ground. And so they are stuck in this horrifying situation where they're being forced to choose between a regime they hate and American and Israeli bombs. And that's a really difficult issue, because as an Iranian nationalist, you don't want either of those options.

[Alastair Campbell]

I was talking to somebody who works with the Iranian diaspora here and in different parts of Europe who said the worst thing about what's going on is that we feel we're going through two wars simultaneously. We feel that the regime has been waging war on us. And now we feel that we, despite being opponents of the regime, are being put into exactly the same basket as the regime because we happen to be Iranian.

[Rory Stewart]

And Heksith certainly talks about that.

[Alastair Campbell]

Hexith basically said, you know, the ones who are Iranian and still think they're going to live, they're our target. Well, again, that one could come back to haunt him in a tribunal down the track. But if you imagine that there will be, I mean, it's impossible to know. But let's say you're right. 80, 90%, let's say the sort of 10, 15, 20, 90% totally support the regime, totally locked up. That means you've got 80% saying, not for us. They are now feeling like they are on the receiving end of a massive American Israeli war. And that is, psychologically, I'd have thought, pretty crushing. Knowing how to get.

[Rory Stewart]

Another thing I think that's so interesting when we talk about this, is people talk about what Iranians think or Iranian public opinion, but it's a massive country of almost 100 million people. It would be like saying, what do the British think? And of course, as we found out with Brexit, you could talk to one group of good British friends and they could be like, no, no, no, no, no. All these Brexiteers are maniacs. And you talk to another group of British friends, and it turns out 52% of people are voting for Brexit. Again, if I was to, let's say I was an American journalist interviewing you about Nigel Farage, you might be a bit tempted to be like, he's an idiot. Nobody likes him, nobody supports him. No, you won't. But anyway. But you see the basic point, that part of the problem when we're talking to Iranians is, who are you talking to? Are you talking to somebody from a wealthier, more educated background, living in a city? And those people have hated the regime for 40 years? Are you talking to someone in the kind of villages that I was walking through, which are poor, conservative, nationalistic, propagandized, who traditionally have been the base of the regime? Are you talking to ethnic groups? So one of the things we need to think about is that there's these persistent rumors that Trump and the CIA have been flirting with the idea of arming the Kurds. Kurds, less than 10% of the population of Iran, for instance, predominantly a Persian country located up in the northwest, on the western edges of the country? That would be a terrifying thing to do. I mean, the Kurds have been very badly treated by the Iranians, terribly oppressed. But the idea that arming a ethnic group and starting a civil war, I

[Alastair Campbell]

think he's backing off that. The other thing that I find incredible about the way that Trump conducts himself in this, this is his genius as a sort of political operative. You have serious journalists today whose framing of this is. Well, it looks like Trump is going to decide when this is over and he's going to declare victory on his terms. And they're already shaping the debate like that, which, of course, is what then allows him to do it.

[Rory Stewart]

And everyone bringing a sigh of relief So I was listening to Today program this morning and oil prices down because Trump has said it was extraordinary Trump communication. I think it's gonna end very soon. When.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, you know, we haven't won enough yet. We've won, but we haven't won enough yet.

[Rory Stewart]

Which means, I think at some point we should get onto a very interesting question, which is that even if the war ended tomorrow, my reckoning is that consequences of this are gonna be with us for a very long time. This is a shattered region now, the

[Alastair Campbell]

way that literally the media around the world allow him to dictate an agenda, as you say, based on just a couple of throwaway remarks which are probably not thought through. And also there's all this stuff about Baron investing in oil. I thought one of the funniest comments of the last 24 hours was Eric Trump complaining that the new Khamenei, that this was a case of nepotism.

[Rory Stewart]

You didn't. So, you know, he called him a Nepo baby.

[Alastair Campbell]

Just on Trump, by the way, there's some very good polling I saw. I mean, Trump as the mooch and I found in Belfast and Dublin. He's really not popular right now. But if you go through it according to how you voted in the 2024 election, so Lib Dem, if you're a Lib Dem, 79% define themselves as very anti Trump. Labour 75. Greens 74, Conservatives 45, Reform 12. Now, I think this is a really big problem for Mr. Farage. Mr. Farage, who went off at the weekend, he was going to have a meeting at Mar a Lago with Trumpy. He got stood up. Poor chapter. But I think that Farage has locked himself into a position alongside a deeply unpopular American president and Keir Starmer. Whatever people say about him on the politics of this, which are fiendishly difficult, has ended up broadly, I think, where British people feel pretty comfortable with the position that he's now landed in.

[Rory Stewart]

Just to finish up with Lorcan on what's happening on the ground in Iran, you talked about the different leadership candidates. So you raised last week Ali Laranjani, who's the national Security advisor. We could have talked about Mohammed Bagar Galibat, who's the speaker of the Parliament. And those were the kind of two securocrats that people thought really were at the key of this regime, running it day to day. And now we've had Khamenei's son, which to have a Khamenei takeover. The bottom line on these three figures is they are regimes through and through and through. I mean, anyone who hoped that this is the beginning of a new reform and a new pragmatism, this is instead people who, I think, absolutely buy into Khamenei's fundamental position. And Khamenei's position is the same as Xi Jinping's position. They both looked at what happened to the Soviet Union and they thought, what happened is Gorbachev was too soft. The biggest moment of danger for regimes is when you reform. Khamenei had another Iranian wrestling statement where he used to say that when your opponent is pushing you hard, what you must never do is step back, because they just occupy that space and push you further back. And they will always.

[Alastair Campbell]

One of Putin's judo principles as well.

[Rory Stewart]

Very good. Well, they will have all concluded that they were too restrained in their response to Israel and the US Last time around, that Hezbollah, in retrospect, should have launched 100,000 missiles into Israel straight after October 7, that they should have hit back at the whole Gulf and launched all their drones after the first two strikes. That they gave the impression to Israel and the US that they were weak and they gained nothing from it. That everybody who had said to them, listen, if we keep our heads down, maybe they won't come after us. What they've actually heard from Netanyahu and Trump is, we will not stop till we've wiped you out. And if someone says to you, we will not stop till we wipe you out, what possible incentive is there to restrain yourself in any way at all?

[Alastair Campbell]

Is it also the case if you go through the three ayatollahs? So we go Khomeini, Khamenei, Khamenei ii.

[Rory Stewart]

Yep.

[Alastair Campbell]

Are they becoming less and less theocratic?

[Rory Stewart]

So these are all. This is slight nuance, because this depends whether you buy into Shia theology. Right. So certainly true. Ayatollah Khomeini was a really major theological scholar. And in some ways, Shia Islam feels a bit like the Catholic Church, except the Pope. Like figures who are these sources of emulation are often profound theologians. And the great example is Sistani, who's basically the big figure sitting running this from Najaf and Qom, which is the kind of holy city in Iran, is where they all move through. But don't underestimate the fact that when we say that Mujtaba Khamenei is not a great theological scholar, the guy has almost certainly memorized the entire Quran from one end to the other and could certainly spend nine or ten days lecturing you on detailed surahs. And theological implications.

[Alastair Campbell]

I mean, would we take that as a mini series? Nine hours. We've.

[Rory Stewart]

Unfortunately, it's a really, really odd culture because he is a very, very senior learned cleric. He's just not up at the top level. But, you know, it's. I don't know, it's. Maybe he's a First division footballer, not a Premier League footballer.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay, okay. So the original Ayatollah Khomeini, he was Champions League.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. Well, we have these weird phrases, like we have these weird phrases of Grand Ayatollah, sources of emulation. And one of the things that happened after Khomeini died is that they did two very odd things at the same time. They broke the connection between the theological, religious authority and the political by allowing Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who's actually located in Iraq, to be the big theological source, separate from the political. But they strengthened the notion of the Wulay tif Haqi, which is the government of the jurists. They actually made the clergy stronger within the regime.

[Alastair Campbell]

Are you quite attracted to their faith? I mean, if you.

[Rory Stewart]

My family have been Christians for generations. I know that.

[Alastair Campbell]

But it's like Tony Blair always used to say, we worry that if I got God, I'd become a Islamic fundamentalist.

[Rory Stewart]

What's this?

[Alastair Campbell]

Where do you fall down? I know it's all to do with Muhammad.

[Rory Stewart]

Where do you fall down? For those of us who are not Muslims, who are Western Europeans, there's always something very attractive about Shia Islam because it's tended to have much more relationship to Sufism, to mystical traditions, towards intellectualism. It's got more clerical authority. Traditionally it was actually less radical and it was always slightly on the back foot. But one of the problems that we're dealing with here is that at the heart of it, going back to its foundation story, is the idea of martyrdom. Because the break was when the son in law and cousin of the Prophet Muhammad was killed at Karbala, the Sunni tradition takes over. And the Shia tradition is from this martyr tradition, which is why you see all these great images of Imam Ali, Imam Hussein dressed in martyrs robes. And which is why you now have this situation where for the 10, 20% who support the regime, Mujtaba Khamenei has now become something called a Shaheed Zenday. So he's a living shahid, he's a living martyr because of the loss of his father, his mother, his wife is

[Alastair Campbell]

not related to the Shahid drone at all.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, yeah, it's the same. It's the same. It's the same drone.

[Alastair Campbell]

Right. Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, that's good. I think there's a book in here, Ori.

[Rory Stewart]

Very good.

[Alastair Campbell]

Why I Became a Sheer Muslim by Rory Stewart.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, the final thing, for lessons you really want. Roy Mutahaday has written the great book. Also, bit of shout out to Vali Nasser, who's just written a great piece today in the New York Times looking at nationalism in Iran and why he thinks the regime is actually growing stronger, not weaker, thanks to the attacks. And a shout out again to my friend Gerard Russell, who's very kind. He's been very patient with me, as always.

[Alastair Campbell]

He's a great guy. He's a great guy. Now, listen, let's get down to grubby politics. Alfie in Surrey wants to know, do we think that Netanyahu will now win the next Israeli election?

[Rory Stewart]

Go on, then. What do you think?

[Alastair Campbell]

He's in a better place than he was.

[Rory Stewart]

Just to remind people he was in real trouble three years ago.

[Alastair Campbell]

He has been politically dead so many times.

[Rory Stewart]

And really the assumption was before October 7 that he was finished. Right. And his opinion polling was terrible.

[Alastair Campbell]

He had the thing of the court reform. You had massive protests. Then he was getting the blame for the October 7th attack acts. But it's really interesting watching the opposition figures in Israel feeling that they have to say they support what Netanyahu is doing in relation to Iran.

[Rory Stewart]

I think public opinion is sort of nearly 80% of Israeli opinion is behind this Iran thing. I mean, it's a sign, in a sense, that Israel is now operating in a completely different media space from the rest of the world. I've never seen such a dramatic difference between what Israelis assume, which is they just take it for granted that what they're doing in Iran is completely justified. Makes perfect sense. While actually the vast majority of the American population is horrified.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. And I watched Channel 4 news last night, and Krishna Gurumurti was interviewing Benny Gantz, who's, you know, big military figure, but also kind of much more centrist, moderate sort of political figure. And he. And Krishna was. Krishna Gramurti was saying to him, but, you know, there is no legal basis of this war. And he really pushed back at him, and Kushner held his ground. But basically there's a guy who is politically opposing Netanyahu who is essentially giving him a complete blank check on the legality because he supports taking down the regime.

[Rory Stewart]

Just quickly on this, I mean, we don't know, because this is something Rob Malley said, that we would not be at all surprised that if before this podcast went out. Trump announced a massive new phase, or if he suddenly announced the war was over. But but one thing I think that we can be pretty confident of is that even if Trump stops his military operations, in a sense the war will not be over. Because the way in which senior Israeli figures are talking is that they will go back and back and back into Iran whenever they want. They can go back in three months time, six months time, nine months time, because what they're going to do is attempt to perpetually degrade the military infrastructure and probably degrade the entire state structures and government structures. Iran. They would much rather have a failed weak state that's not a threat to Israel than have a coherent nationalistic state.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. Now rou I think for a final question, we ought to be allowed to have a little dig at the following people. Nigel Farage, Richard Tyson, Jacob Rees Mogg, Louis H. From London. Could you challenge some of the Brexit supporting politicians like Farage, Tice and Rees Mogg with a simple question about sovereignty? They argued that Brexit was about taking back control from the EU so Britain could act independently. Yet many of them are now arguing the UK should automatically follow the United States in the Iran crisis because of security dependence. How do they reconcile demanding sovereignty from Brussels while advocating alignment with Washington? Louis that's a very, very good question.

[Rory Stewart]

I'd add in Boris Johnson. Absolutely extraordinary. I mean, Boris Johnson absolutely just out there again and again saying anybody who remotely questions what the US is doing in Venezuela or Iran is a lefty bedwetter. And clearly what we should do is get right in behind the U.S. no, it's very interesting. It's as though the right really wasn't talking about sovereignty at all. One almost gets the impression that their worldview is they don't like being told what to do by the French and the Germans, but they want to be told what to do by the US and Israel.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, they didn't, as I said yesterday, they didn't want to be told by Barack Obama to stick with the European Union as the better way to get a trade deal for the uk. So they want to be told what to do by right wing, right wing

[Rory Stewart]

governments in the US and Israel. Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

Even if they are people who clearly like Trump, offend so many people in Britain very, very deeply.

[Rory Stewart]

Interestingly, I also think they're going to become increasingly pro modi. So you can see there's a Conservative MP representing a Haro constituency. He's just got this medal from the Indian government. But I wouldn't be Surprised if we don't find out. I mean, I'm teasing them about being too pro us, too pro Israel. I think within five years time they'll be knee jerking to the Indian position on the world too.

[Alastair Campbell]

Interesting.

[Rory Stewart]

It's very interesting.

[Alastair Campbell]

Are you less enthusiastic about Mark Carney's bromance with Modi than I am?

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I think we should be cautious because I think it's an exciting idea. But remember that India was engaged in the extrajudicial killing of Canadian citizens on Canadian territory not long ago. And Modi has been on the. Absolutely. On a very weird side on the Russia Ukraine conflict. He's not been providing support to Ukraine, he's been buying Russian oil like Billio, filling Putin's coffers. India missed its chance to step up for the rules based order. It invited Putin famously to come visit them. So I would make the core of an argument for a values rules based order. Probably I'd go to New Zealand before I went to India.

[Alastair Campbell]

Hold on. No, Rory, you're missing Alexander Stubb, the triangle of power. And he goes global, global west, global east, global South. And he said in our interview that maybe it should have been a rectangle. The fourth corner of the rectangle has to be Europe.

[Rory Stewart]

Very good. Okay, very good.

[Alastair Campbell]

And you think it's going to be them, but it's got to be Europe and.

[Rory Stewart]

But you've got to work on how on earth we hold Europe together. What's so sad is that again and again you. Yeah, I've given you the job again and again there's this splintering. Exactly the moment where you want Metz

[Alastair Campbell]

and Macron and even Macron going off to Cyprus. I mean, it was quite a good thing to do an attack on Cyprus as an attack on Europe. But it sort of looked like, you know, don't worry, the French will look after you even if the Brits won't.

[Rory Stewart]

It's really weird. And also, they were not as supportive of Spain as they should have been. It looked like, you know, Metz was kicking this, the Spanish, and they're not

[Alastair Campbell]

very supportive on the, on the enlargement that we talked to Martikos about in Ukraine, where, you know, we've got to get Ukraine and we've got to get

[Rory Stewart]

the Balkans in and, you know, interesting. Serbia, your friend Eddie Rama in Albania writing op ed saying they're prepared to sign up for the single market without full membership or some sort of outside. But yeah, we need. If this is going to happen. And this is, of course, what Europe's enemies are betting on. From the US to the rest of the world is that Europe will always be too divided and too incapable of developing a.

[Alastair Campbell]

Which is why they're trying to exacerbate the divisions, not least by backing the AfD in Germany, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So I, I wonder if the Americans are quite conscious of just how loathe Trump is in much of Europe at the moment. So these pieces that you and I are writing for the. The newsletter link in the description below

[Rory Stewart]

and thank you to everyone who's been signing up to use. Huge rise in number of people. And I just actually got three friends in the Gulf writing in saying how interested they'd been in some of the recent newsletters.

[Alastair Campbell]

Excellent. So, anyway, so I've written about the Mooch and I going to Dublin and to Belfast and kind of what that whole Irish story says about the way that the world is changing. Really interesting. By the way, I am absolutely convinced that the, the question on a United Ireland, or a New Ireland as they like to call it is, is moving away at the moment.

[Rory Stewart]

Moving away.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Part of the Brexit feels less likely to me.

[Alastair Campbell]

It feels like the Republic is less kind of passionate about it. Interestingly, the audience in Belfast, 80% said that Brexit made them feel more European.

[Rory Stewart]

Right. And yet. But paradoxically, a bit like Scotland makes you feel more European, but doesn't necessarily

[Alastair Campbell]

mean the United Kingdom makes you worried about big institutional change.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

Anyway, we'll see.

[Rory Stewart]

Good. Well, I look forward to reading that very much and thank you for question time. And let's see what we're doing next week. But I think even if Mexico, Cuba. Exactly. Think about Cuba could well be going into Cuba. But even if the bombing stops instantly, I think the long term impacts of this we're only just beginning to see. He has shattered that region and I think he's probably had a really serious impact on the economies of Europe. I mean, one of the things we don't talk about enough is when Rachel Reeves looks at what's going to happen as oil prices go up, fertilizer prices go up, cost of living goes up, unemployment going up, growth goes down. And that's repeated right the way across Europe. That's a gift, unfortunately, to the far right going to the elections. And for that too, we have to thank Mr. Donald Trump.

[Alastair Campbell]

See you soon.

[Rory Stewart]

See you soon. Bye bye.