The Rest Is Politics Ep. 513 — "Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time)"
Date: March 19, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell, Rory Stewart
Guest: Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment, Iran specialist)
Episode Overview
This episode departs from the usual question-and-answer format to bring in Karim Sadjadpour, a leading analyst on Iran, for a deep-dive into the Iranian crisis: the internal situation post-leadership change, Iran’s war footing, U.S. and Israeli strategies, and global consequences. The conversation is driven by listener questions focusing on nationalism, regime stability, external intervention, and Western (mis)perceptions of Iran.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Iranian Nationalism & Internal Dynamics
- Polarization of Society:
- Iran is "one of the most nationalistic populations on Earth"—but the nationalism can fuel both opposition to the regime and resistance to foreign intervention.
- Karim Sadjadpour:
"I would say around 80-85% of the population is opposed to the regime. The regime has a hard core of 15 to 20% support... What matters most is not the breadth of your support, but the depth." [03:06]
- Question of Uprising:
- Unlikely during war; people focus on safety, not revolt. True political mobilization could return after hostilities subside, dependent on regime ruthlessness and popular calculation. [03:55]
2. The New Ayatollah & Regime Stability
- Profile of Mojtaba Khamenei:
- Came to power only after assassination of his father; previously operated in shadows with little public presence. Emotionally and physically affected post-attack; a "product" of foreign threats and internal inertia.
- Quote:
"He is inexperienced. He's never really given a speech before a large audience... I'm skeptical that he has that within him." [08:14]
- Collapse vs. Coherence:
- Initial regime response: close ranks ("no factions in foxholes").
- Multiple post-war scenarios: retrenchment (like Saddam post-1991), implosion under military humiliation (Milosevic), slow adaptation (Vietnam), or, as in the Soviet case, a period of instability leading to new authoritarianism. [10:50, 13:20]
3. Lessons from Authoritarian Collapse
- Potential Soviet Parallel:
- Collapse could bring "oligarchs not intellectuals" to the fore.
- Quote:
"Power vacuums are not filled by moderate intellectuals... In the Iranian context, it could well be someone from the security forces." [13:13]
- Iranian nationalism could be repurposed into anti-American grievance, but history shows potential for future U.S.–Iran cooperation. [13:52]
4. The Gulf Crisis, Military Strategy, and Economic Warfare
- Iran’s Logic in Attacking the Gulf:
- Aimed to pressure U.S. via Gulf allies; spike oil prices, close the Strait of Hormuz, and sway U.S. public opinion against war.
- Quote:
"One advantage that dictatorships have over democracies... is that democracies are much more sensitive to public opinion." [15:37]
- Ideological vs. Practical:
- Attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia are about deep-seated rivalry: "Iran's vision is 1979; UAE’s is 2031."
- Quote:
"It takes decades to build, and it takes weeks to destroy." [18:54]
- Kharg Island Attacks:
- "Key node" for Iranian oil exports. U.S. & Israel strike to force open the Strait.
- On Iran's asymmetric power:
"$100 million tankers threatened by $20,000 drones. Iran is holding the global economy hostage with far less resources." [21:27]
5. Prospects for the Conflict: War of Choice Becomes War of Necessity
- US/Israeli Predicament:
- U.S. and Israel cannot achieve neat resolution—regime change is elusive; ending war leaves Iran able to threaten the global economy.
- Sadjadpour:
"I don't see this conflict being resolved in the next year... What began as a war of choice... has evolved into a war of necessity." [26:30, 28:02]
- Winners and Losers:
- Russia profits from high oil prices; everyone else loses.
- Israel’s "mow the lawn" doctrine—repeated strikes to keep Iran weak. [29:28]
6. Western Misunderstandings of Iran
- Expertise Gap:
- No US-Iranian diplomatic contact since 1979; few US officials with real Iran experience.
- Common errors:
- Overestimating the regime’s capacity for reform (left/academia)
- Overestimating its fragility (right)
- Quote:
"People overestimated the ability of this Iranian regime to reform... but also overestimated the fragility..." [31:25]
- Containment as Solution:
- Advocates adapting the Cold War "containment" approach; quick fixes are unrealistic.
- On the JCPOA:
"I supported the JCPOA...[but] my only critique was that the strategy couldn't rest on one of those three pillars: nuclear, regional, internal change." [33:29]
7. Proxies, Nationalities, and Dangers of Intervention
- Fate of Proxies:
- Iran's proxies depend on Iranian money; regime change likely undermines their threat.
- On Kurds and Separatism:
"The most potent opposition to the regime is pluralistic Iranian nationalism... [US arming Kurds] a dangerous strategy of playing with fire." [36:12–38:17]
8. Is the West Chasing the Impossible?
- Campbell/Stewart Reflections:
- The US is "obsessed" with being able to claim victory, but definitions keep changing.
- Stewart:
"If you don't win, you lose. For the guerrilla fighters, if you don't lose, you win." [41:13]
- No Quick Fix:
- U.S. power not sufficient to dictate political outcomes in the Middle East.
- Iran’s survival—however battered—allows it to claim victory and deters easy disengagement:
"Militarily, the US and Israel won—but the narrative could be that Iran is the winner because it survived." [41:13]
9. Russia, China, and Iran
- Divergent Interests:
- China’s interest is transactional (energy); instability isn’t in its interest.
- Russia benefits from Iran’s destabilizing role (higher prices, reduced competition).
- Quote:
"China and Russia are commonly lumped together... but have very different endgames." [43:12]
10. Alternatives to Regime Change by Force
- Empowering Civil Society and Values:
- Military power not enough; need to empower Iranian society, support democratic values, and accentuate regime-people fissures.
- Western unity during the Cold War a useful guide, but US commitment to values has atrophied.
- Quote:
"There's no country in the world with a greater gap between its government and its people than Iran... Western values and Western interests intersect." [46:04]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Regime Support:
"What matters most is not the breadth of your support, but the depth of your support."
[Karim Sadjadpour, 03:27] -
On Authoritarian Resilience:
"It's not a foregone conclusion that six months from now, a year from now, they'll be able to continue onwards with the status quo."
[Sadjadpour, 09:56] -
On Intervention Outcomes:
"Power vacuums are not filled by moderate intellectuals... it could well be someone who is an alum of the security forces..."
[Sadjadpour, 13:13] -
On External Misunderstanding:
"If only we increase the pressure or... decapitate their leader, the entire system will collapse. That has so far been proven incorrect."
[Sadjadpour, 32:21] -
On Western Policy:
"The U.S.-Iran Cold War is not going to really end until you have a government in Iran which... reflects the national interests of Iran rather than the revolutionary ideology of 1979."
[Sadjadpour, 45:29] -
On “Victory”:
"Victory for them... is that the war stops without them being utterly destroyed... For the Iranians, they are in an absolute mess of their own making, both politically, strategically, militarily..."
[Alastair Campbell, 51:36] -
On Realism:
"This is not something that’s going to get resolved in weeks. It’s going to take years."
[Campbell, 49:26]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Iranian Nationalism & Regime Support: [01:41–04:23]
- New Ayatollah & Succession: [07:16–11:13]
- Collapse Scenarios & Soviet Parallel: [10:50–14:06]
- Gulf Attacks & U.S. Public Opinion: [14:26–17:00]
- Vision 2030 vs. Vision 1979 (UAE/Saudi vs. Iran): [17:00–20:33]
- Kharg Island & Asymmetric Warfare: [20:50–22:37]
- Conflict Prospects – War of Choice to Necessity: [25:22–30:10]
- Western Blind-Spots: [30:10–33:17]
- JCPOA Critique: [33:17–34:42]
- Kurds & Nationalism: [36:14–39:14]
- Winding Down & Stewart on the “Impossible”: [39:14–42:06]
- Russia/China – Different Goals: [42:06–44:18]
- Alternatives to Military Intervention: [45:01–47:15]
Tone & Takeaways
Intelligent, frank, and pragmatic: The episode underscores the tragic complexity of the Iranian crisis and the perils of simplistic Western thinking—regime change by force is a dead-end, while empowering Iranian civil society and sustained containment, though slow and unsatisfying, may be the only path forward. The conversation is collegial yet incisive, full of historical parallels, nuance, and sobering (sometimes grim) realism.
For those seeking to truly grasp the current crisis and long-term stakes in Iran, this episode is an essential, clear-eyed guide through one of the world’s most consequential and misunderstood conflicts.