Podcast Summary:

The Rest Is Politics
Episode 514: Who Is Profiting from Trump’s Iran Catastrophe?
Date: March 25, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell (A) and Rory Stewart (B)

Episode Overview

This episode provides a detailed analysis of the escalating crisis between the US and Iran under President Donald Trump, examining the international fallout, geopolitical winners and losers, and the profound implications for global security and economies. The hosts also passionately debate the UK’s ongoing assisted dying legislation, ending with reflections on democratic dysfunction and political leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Threats and Iran: Entering Uncharted (and Dangerous) Waters

• Trump’s Ultimatum: Trump threatened to attack Iran’s critical infrastructure (water, electricity) if the Straits of Hormuz were not reopened within 48 hours—a move Campbell characterizes as “a war crime” ([02:00-02:07]).
• Potential Humanitarian Disaster: Destruction of Gulf desalination plants would trigger a refugee crisis and cripple regional daily life ([02:32-03:15]).
• Trump’s Sudden Climbdown: Despite earlier posturing, Trump unexpectedly did not carry out his threat. Rory speculates, “Somebody has explained to him the size of the hole that he’s now in” ([03:43]).
• Historical Blindness: Alastair situates Trump’s actions as a classic case study of “hubris and ego and lack of foresight and mixed messaging” ([04:15]).

Notable Quote

“I think this is going to be an absolute case study through history of how hubris and ego and lack of foresight and mixed messaging leads you further and further into a terrible, terrible place. And I think that's where Trump is right now.” — Alastair Campbell [04:15]

2. Who Wins, Who Loses? Underlying Motives and Regional Dynamics

• Israel’s Calculus: Rory details the view from the Gulf that Netanyahu “wins every which way,” forcing alignment or regional chaos, and even gaining if enemies suffer economically ([09:31-10:40]).
• Russian Gains: Both hosts contend Russia wins geopolitically and economically—gaining oil revenue and a weakened Ukrainian resistance ([11:19-14:17]).
• Conspiracy Theories: Observers struggle to rationalize Trump’s choices, leading to speculation about undue influence from Russia or Israel ([11:00-11:19]).
• Major Losers: The Iranian public and Gulf countries are bearing the crisis’s brunt, with devastated infrastructure, economic collapse, and cascading impacts on global investment and aid ([14:26-16:53], [17:40-18:42]).

Notable Quote

“Russia is the clear winner out of this. And it is always worth asking that question. When these big international crises happen, who is benefiting?”
— Alastair Campbell [14:17]

• The UK's Position: Both hosts plead for the UK not to be drawn into US and Israeli actions, warning that participation would mean complicity in “war crimes” ([17:40]).

3. Global Consequences: Domino Effects and Political Dilemmas

• Economic Fallout: Gulf economies like Qatar have billions in lost revenue and years-long rebuilding prospects, with global investments—from Europe to humanitarian agencies—losing vital funding ([15:44-16:53]).
• Western Indecision: Campbell criticizes Trump for now asking US allies to defend the Straits after alienating them, while Rory warns that the UK risks “carrying the can” for American and Israeli war crimes if it participates.
• Terrorism and Asymmetry: The hosts note the risk of terror attacks or bases abroad being targeted, further escalating tensions ([18:42-20:02]).
• Gulf Pragmatism: Gulf states (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) are avoiding entanglement despite heavy attacks, learning strategic lessons about US unreliability ([20:05-20:26]).

Notable Exchange

Campbell: “I think these are really, really tough calls.”
Stewart: “The Gulf is making these calls in a really tough way...their conclusion is we do not get drawn into this.” ([20:26])

4. International Leadership and the Search for Alternatives

• New World Order? Campbell suggests a coalition—Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea—could step up as stabilizing forces given US unpredictability ([26:20-27:03]).
• Opportunities for Europe: Rory notes Gulf countries’ new appreciation for European reliability in defense; he urges institutional collaboration ([29:04-30:11]).
• UK Leadership: Praise for Jonathan Powell’s diplomatic work, criticism for the UK Foreign Office and Labour for lack of clarity and initiative ([27:03-30:11]).

Notable Commentary

“If we are genuinely going through creating a new world order in which America is not a reliable ally...we now all have to find the ways to bring it to an end. So that means actually calling out Trump.”
— Alastair Campbell [26:20]

5. “World War Territory” — How Serious Is the Crisis?

• Both hosts reflect on whether the situation amounts to “potential world war territory,” with a European intelligence official answering, “I think we might be in it” ([35:42]).
• Campbell laments the lack of goodwill and expertise:

“There’s not enough goodwill, there's not enough expertise, there's not enough people who have the capacity to get this to a better place.” ([35:42-36:23])

• Stewart observes that despite most of Trump’s circle disagreeing with his actions, “80% of MAGA still seem to be on his side on this” ([36:23]).

Segment Timestamps

• Trump’s Iran Threat & Climbdown: [00:00-05:39]
• Regional Consequences; Gulf & Israel: [09:31-16:53]
• Economic Impact & UK Policy: [16:53-20:26]
• International Leadership & Opportunities: [26:20-30:11]
• World War Risk Analysis: [34:34-36:23]

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “He’s provoked a conflict over which now nobody seems to have much control, least of all him.” — Alastair Campbell [00:32]
• “This is probably the most dangerous moment we've had for many, many decades.” — Rory Stewart [00:39], reiterated at [34:34]
• “You will end up, if you're Keir Starmer, carrying the can for Israel and the US committing war crimes, doing completely illegal, unjustifiable things.” — Rory Stewart [17:40]
• “It is always worth asking that question. When these big international crises happen, who is benefiting?” — Alastair Campbell [14:17]
• “The one rationale that has remained absolutely clear and absolutely consistent throughout is a delight...in American domination and violence.” — Quoting Phil Klay [24:01]

Assisted Dying Bill — Parliamentary Dysfunction and Principle

Overview & Critique

• Commons Passed, Lords Blocked: Alastair (in favor) and Rory (cautious/against) discuss the bill’s progress and impending failure due to Lords’ filibustering via thousands of amendments ([38:49-44:43]).
• Lord Gove’s Role: Michael Gove is accused of orchestrating the bill’s demise by supporting obstructive tactics, despite not strongly opposing assisted dying itself ([40:43]).
• Procedural Chaos: The hosts mock the absurdity of amendments (e.g., requiring pregnancy tests for men over 60), denounce repetitive speeches, and bemoan the Lords’ lack of time limits ([41:40-44:16]).
• Broader Institutional Reflection: Both suggest the UK needs institutional reform, perhaps through Citizens’ Assemblies, to resolve deadlocks on such complex matters ([48:09-48:51]).

Notable Quotes

“So these eight peers have put down 56% [of amendments]. Just to give you a flavor… everybody should have a pregnancy test before being allowed to have an assisted death, including men over 60.” — Alastair Campbell [41:40]

“If you're asking me to put together the John, Paul, George, Ringo of forward thinking on strategy, I am not picking Mark Harper, Theresa Coffee, Sheila Lawler... or Claire Fox.” — Alastair Campbell [48:59]

Host Positions

• Rory Stewart: Worried about coercion of the vulnerable, skeptical but concedes bill is much improved; favors removing party hacks from Lords ([49:42-51:21]).
• Alastair Campbell: Outraged by filibuster, sees Lords as blocking democracy; calls for procedural or institutional overhaul ([49:20-50:04]).

Themes of Democratic Process and Leadership

• Both hosts return to the crisis in Iran to underscore how flawed structures and egotistical leadership (namely Trump) have led to disaster both domestically and abroad.
• Alastair closes by referencing Trump’s callous response to Robert Mueller’s death:

  “His reaction: ‘I’m glad he’s dead.’ That reveals a really horrible human being” ([53:14-54:01]).

Table of Major Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamps | Description | |---------------------------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | Trump’s Iran Brinkmanship | 00:00–05:39 | Trump’s threats, humanitarian & political disaster | | Winners & Losers: Oil, Israel, Russia | 09:31–14:26 | Geopolitical fallout and theories | | Economic & Security Effects | 14:26–20:26 | Impact on Gulf, UK, and world economy | | International Leadership Gaps & Solutions | 26:20–30:11 | Calls for European initiative and institutional renewal | | Approaching “World War Territory” | 34:34–36:23 | Scale of risk, lack of control, MAGA loyalty | | Assisted Dying Legislation | 38:49–51:21 | Lords filibuster, host positions, critique of UK lawmaking | | Democratic Process, Leadership & Values | 52:03–end | Reflections on power, values, and responses to political tragedy |

Tone & Language

The conversation is expert, passionate, and sometimes sardonic, with both hosts pulling no punches in critiquing Trump, the UK political establishment, or Lords filibusterers. They move seamlessly between high-level geopolitical analysis and relatable, sharp-witted commentary—exemplifying “the lost art of disagreeing agreeably.”

Final Thoughts

This episode is a sobering, multi-layered investigation into a rapidly deteriorating international crisis, compounded by flawed leadership and institutional dysfunction. The hosts remind listeners that while democracy and diplomacy can be messy, the greatest danger is the absence of clear values, thoughtful process, and the willingness to question who is really benefiting from international actions.

For a more detailed exploration, tune in at the timestamps provided above.