The Rest Is Politics – Episode 517: Is Trump Plotting Regime Change in Cuba? (Question Time)

Hosted by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Date: April 1, 2026

Overview

In this Question Time episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart address a wide range of audience questions on urgent global and UK current affairs. The conversation opens with the provocative possibility of Donald Trump plotting regime change in Cuba, examining US foreign policy dynamics and their consequences, before shifting to a variety of domestic and international political issues. The episode is rich in forthright opinion, sharp analysis, personal anecdotes, and a few moments of signature mutual ribbing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is Trump Plotting Regime Change in Cuba?

(00:22 – 11:49)

Background and Recent Events:

• Rory opens with a listener question: Could Trump target Cuba as a distraction from foreign policy setbacks (namely Iran)?
  • Recent events include the killing of 32 Cuban security personnel in a raid linked to Maduro’s capture.
  • Trump quickly labels Cuba a "state ready to fail," exacerbates its energy crisis by blocking oil shipments, and threatens Mexico with tariffs.
  • These actions have led to severe blackouts and increased anti-Cuba rhetoric from the Trump administration.

Republican Rhetoric and Rationale:

• Lindsey Graham is quoted as saying: “Iran’s done, Cuba’s next, we’re mopping them up one by one.” (01:25)
• Marco Rubio (with strong Cuban-American constituency) is also vocally calling for more aggressive action on Cuba, drawing from personal and political ties.
• Rory notes the arguments used for intervention:
  • The specter of autocracy, political prisoners, alleged spying on US tourists, “Havana syndrome,” and claims about Russian and Chinese signal intelligence in Cuba.
  • He points out the hypocrisy, noting the US also operates global signals intelligence, and that the standard laid out would justify intervention in dozens of countries.

Dangers of Overconfidence in Intervention:

• Rory highlights similarities in logic with past interventions in Iran and Iraq:
  • Assumption that, “things can’t get worse for Cuba,” echoing previous regime-change rationales. (04:02)
  • He warns of severe possible consequences: “You could end up with half a million Cubans on boats trying to get to Florida.” (04:38)

Insular US Perspective:

• The risk calculations of Republican commentators seem centered on American servicemen, with little regard for the impact on Cuban civilians.

Quotes:

• Rory, on the risks:

  "The only risk [Carrie Filippetti] seemed to acknowledge was risk to American service personnel, not really risk to Cubans. So the only reason I'm talking about this is it reminds me a little bit of the structure of the Iran intervention... assumption that there are no real downstream consequences for the US. Certainly, no thinking about the consequences for the actual local people..." (04:38)

• Alastair on Republican “derangement syndrome”:

  "If, like most of the Republican administration, you have Iran derangement syndrome and Cuba derangement syndrome, you find it very difficult to believe that anybody could possibly support those regimes..." (05:00)

Historical Context and Lessons Not Learned:

• Alastair recalls the Bay of Pigs as an example of disastrous overreach by the US:

  "They just thought we get a few exiles... they’ll go in, the whole thing will fall over. It was a fiasco." (07:11)

• Rory recommends Norman Mailer’s Harlot’s Ghost as the “most beautiful book” on the CIA’s bungled Cuba operations. (07:27)
• Both agree that American policymakers dangerously underestimate local complexities and the risks of intervention.

2. Social Media, Tech Regulation, and Legal Accountability

(14:08 – 21:59)

• Rory and Alastair examine US court cases against Meta and YouTube for knowingly developing addictive products that harmed youth.

• Both compare Big Tech’s position to the tobacco industry:

  • “One internal document from YouTube...‘How are we measuring well-being?’ and the response, ‘we’re not.’” (17:41)
  • The platforms’ defense strategies blame parents, echoing historical tobacco company tactics.

• Rory predicts an upcoming “culture war of all culture wars” over tech, regulation, and AI.

  • Tech giants’ self-perception as world-improvers fuels their intransigence.
  • Many tech billionaires’ frustration with Democratic scolding led to more open support for Trump.

• UK’s tentative regulatory response:

  • New pilot scheme limits teen access to social media, but is criticized as “processy,” under-resourced, and symbolic rather than substantial—even labelled “nonsense” for tiny sample sizes. (20:53)

3. UK Political Landscape: Greens, “Far-Left,” and Populism

(21:59 – 27:59)

• Listener Sean challenges the characterisation of the Green Party as “far left.”
• Rory counters that “far” is contextual; both Reform (right) and Greens (left) invoke “populist” tendencies by not explaining tradeoffs or costs.

  "Populists on left and right never want to admit the pain their policies would bring." (24:06)

• Alastair doesn’t see Greens as far left but as lacking “credibility.” He references an event where youth admired Green leader Zack Polanski for his energy, even if “not credible on the economy.” (24:27)
• Rory notes that Polanski’s lack of economic literacy didn't damage him:

  “I thought revealing that he didn't really know the difference between the debt and the deficit...could have been really damaging for a politician 20, 30 years ago, but hasn't had any effect at all.” (26:55)

4. Who is More Dangerous: Putin or Netanyahu?

(28:12 – 34:00)

• Bruno asks which world leader poses a greater global threat.

• Rory: Putin remains “objectively the most dangerous” for Europe due to his nuclear arsenal, war on Ukraine, and expansionist ambitions.

• Netanyahu’s actions are driven by a sense of near-invulnerability and supported by US endorsement.

• Both leaders, like Trump, act with little regard for secondary consequences, prioritising self-preservation and political survival.

• Alastair:

  • Both deploy dangerous “strongman survival” instincts—willing to take risks or cause harm to maintain power.
  • “When they are in a political bind, they are not scared to do things that we would deem to be very dangerous…and potentially catastrophic in order to keep going.” (31:22)

• Rory elaborates that the “network” of strongmen, including Trump, Orban, and Netanyahu, operate with impunity and mutual support, undermining democracy.

5. UK and European Transatlantic Relations

(11:49 – 13:59)

• Rory worries US allies are left powerless by American unilateralism in Iran, feeling forced into actions against their interests.
• Trump openly taunts the UK and Europe for not “helping” in his Iran exploits, warning they'll be on their own.
• Alastair criticizes the UK government’s “abdication” of responsibility by insisting the king’s state visit is his decision, rather than a governmental one.

6. Restore Party, Reform Party, and UK Populist Right

(35:52 – 38:43)

• Rory and Alastair discuss the rise of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Party, its explicit support from Elon Musk, and where it sits between ‘mainstream’ Reform and the far right.
• Alastair notes Farage’s tendency to fall out with colleagues and suggests that Lowe has “genuinely extreme views.”
• They debate whether key figures like Robert Jenrick may drift between these emerging right-wing parties.

7. Personal & Cultural Recommendations

(39:59 – 50:46)

• Rory provides personal updates on meditation retreats and his enduring love of long-distance walking, noting that meditation offers a deeper sense of introspection.

  “If I’m walking for 9, 10 hours, I maybe spend a couple hours grumbling about my pack…But, if I’m sitting cross legged…for 14 hours a day, I have more chance to contemplate my navel.” (40:40)

• Alastair laments age-related physical challenges but keeps active with swimming and boxing.

Book & Film Picks:

• Rory:

  • Hitler’s Beneficiaries by Götz Aly: Explores how ordinary Germans benefited economically from Nazi plunder.
  • The Coming Storm by Ødd Arne Westad: On the parallels between today and the world before WWI.
  • Amazon Prime’s The Chosen: A series about Jesus, unusual for situating him firmly as a Jewish leader in a Middle Eastern context.

• Alastair:

  • Essays on Madness: A Lunatic’s Guide by A.A. Fellows: A brutally honest account of living with mental illness.
  • TV: Gone (David Morrissey), Mr. Nobody vs. Putin (BBC).
  • Theatre: Broken Glass by Arthur Miller at the Young Vic.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cuba:

  “You could end up with half a million Cubans on boats trying to get to Florida.”
  — Rory Stewart (04:38)

• On populist politics:

  “Populists on left and right never want to admit the pain their policies would bring.”
  — Rory Stewart (24:10)

• On the Green Party:

  “I don’t see them as far left. I just think they’re not very credible.”
  — Alastair Campbell (24:27)

• On Putin, Netanyahu, and Trump:

  “When they are in a political bind, they’re not scared to do things that we would deem to be very dangerous...to keep going.”
  — Alastair Campbell (31:22)

• On tech and addiction:

  “They do sound like drug pushers.”
  — Alastair Campbell (17:41)

• On walking and meditation:

  “If I’m walking for 9, 10 hours…I get about an hour…being in the zone and meditating. Whereas if I’m sitting cross-legged…for 14 hours a day, I have more chance to contemplate my navel.”
  — Rory Stewart (40:40)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Cuba & US Foreign Policy – 00:22–11:49
• Social Media/Big Tech Regulation – 14:08–21:59
• Green Party & UK Populism – 21:59–27:59
• Putin vs Netanyahu: Dangers to World Stability – 28:12–34:00
• Restore Party and Reform Party Politics – 35:52–38:43
• Personal and Cultural Picks – 39:59–50:46

Tone and Style

• The episode features frank, often wry exchanges—“He [Lindsey Graham] is such a jerk, that guy…”—as Alastair and Rory combine intellectual seriousness with personal candour and wit.
• The podcast exemplifies the hosts’ commitment to “disagreeing agreeably,” bringing both critique and open-mindedness to complex topics.

This summary captures the key takeaways, memorable lines, and the natural flow of The Rest Is Politics’s 517th episode, providing a comprehensive guide for listeners and non-listeners alike.