521. Trump’s Naval Blockade: Is America Becoming a Rogue State? - The Rest Is Politics

Podcast Summary – The Rest Is Politics, Episode 521: “Trump’s Naval Blockade: Is America Becoming a Rogue State?” Released April 14, 2026 | Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the escalating crisis triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's surprise announcement of a naval blockade of the Straits of Hormuz—a major escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart analyze Trump’s decision-making, its effects on global norms, the international economy, and the shifting alignment of world powers. The episode also features insights from Campbell’s exclusive interview with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, considering the wider fallout across Europe, the Middle East, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Trump Naval Blockade – What Happened and Why?

[04:44, 07:01]

Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance, failed after 21 hours of ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
Immediately afterwards, Trump unilaterally announced a U.S. naval blockade on any vessel touching Iranian ports—an action not seen since WWII.
This move is freezing traffic through the Straits of Hormuz and sending global oil prices and economic anxiety rocketing.
Traditional allies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, European nations) are panicked; the blockade worsens instability far beyond the U.S. or Iran.

Quote:

"They started a process, they decided it's not gone exactly according to plan on day one. Therefore, we blow up the process."
– Alastair Campbell [12:52]

Flawed Negotiation Tactics – Diplomacy vs. Brutality

[07:01, 14:21]

Campbell compares Trump’s dealmaking to historic peace negotiations (Oslo, Dayton, Good Friday). He’s critical of Trump's impatience:
"This is classic Trump. I've got a ceasefire…the Pakistanis have helped us, I'm going to send J.D. Vance, and it's all going to be done. And they give up because Iran didn't fold on day one."
Stewart and Campbell highlight that meaningful diplomacy is a process, requiring patience and compromise—even gestures like a simple handshake can be symbolically powerful.
Trump’s team treats negotiations as one-shot deals, rigid and transactional, undermining long-term diplomacy.

U.S. Becoming a Rogue State?

[04:44, 23:21, 28:38]

Stewart worries the U.S. is now "celebrating, flouting, outrageously, chaotically defying" global norms, with actions more reminiscent of Israel (as a small country under existential threat) but on a much more dangerous, global scale.
Three possible paths:
1. Everyone acquiesces to U.S. unilateralism.
2. World collapses into copycat chaos.
3. Emergence of a new, more non-aligned (potentially China-led) global order.

Quote:

"What's beginning to happen here is an America which doesn't even pay lip service to global norms, in fact celebrates outrageously, chaotically defying them. The United States is increasingly behaving like Israel…But the U.S. isn't Israel. It's the architect of the entire global order."
– Rory Stewart [23:21, abridged]

Economic Shockwaves

[30:32, 31:31]

The blockade hits the Gulf, Asia, and European economies the hardest:
- Predicted 13% contraction for Qatar, 8% for UAE, billions lost in Gulf tourism and trade.
- Oil jumped from $60 to $100 per barrel at points.
- European consumer sentiment is at its lowest ever; energy costs soar.
The U.S. is partially insulated due to its shift to energy self-reliance, but consumer confidence is still plummeting.

Quote:

"It's economically catastrophic, it's environmentally catastrophic, and it's all caused by this one guy and his decision with Netanyahu to do what they've done."
– Alastair Campbell [31:31]

Chaos in U.S. Leadership & Decision-Making

[20:00, 22:00]

Campbell details Trump’s erratic overnight social media spree: from posting doctored “Jesus” images to policy declarations on the blockade, all between 10pm and 4am.
Stewart underscores that Trump’s unpredictability makes strategic or economic forecasting effectively impossible.

Quote:

"He is not sleeping, he is pretending to be Jesus, he is posting all night, he is not well."
– Alastair Campbell [21:00]

The Collapse of U.S. Moral Authority and the Rise of China

[26:26, 28:38]

Xi Jinping’s public call for international law and balanced global development is seen as sophisticated trolling, highlighting U.S. unpredictability.
Favorability of the U.S. is plummeting across the Middle East—China and Russia’s reputations are rising.
Campbell and Stewart warn that America’s actions set a precedent: if global norms mean little to the U.S., why should anyone else comply?

Is the World Facing a New Security Architecture?

[46:40, 47:36]

In Campbell’s interview with Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian leader floats the idea of rebuilding Europe’s security umbrella:
- A Europe that includes the UK, Norway, Ukraine, and Turkey—potentially a NATO-minus-America, with Europe as its own security guarantor.
- Ukraine, due to its military innovation and resilience, could become the backbone of a new alliance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Negotiation and Diplomacy
- "The process of negotiation did positively influence the behavior of Iran."
  – Alastair Campbell [12:52]
On Trump's unpredictability:
- "Anyone doing geopolitical analysis or advising a company should be pretty honest about the fact that nobody can see into this guy's brain."
  – Rory Stewart [17:17]
On the spread of disorder:
- “If another state were to do this now, what exactly was the US supposed to say? You violated global norms? They can’t say that anymore.”
  – Rory Stewart [28:38]
On real-world impacts:
- “Stock exchanges in the Gulf—Dubai down 15%, Qatar down 10%, Abu Dhabi down 5%. Travel and tourism industry is reckoned to be losing $600 million a day.”
  – Alastair Campbell [31:31]
On Trump’s leadership style:
- "Everything is turned into an aggressive emergency... Permanent emergency and theatre of cruelty."
  – Rory Stewart [23:21]

Timestamps for Key Segments

Trump’s Blockade, Breakdown of Negotiations: [04:44–12:52]
Process of Diplomacy & Negotation Lessons: [12:52–17:17]
Trying to Predict Trump, Leadership Chaos: [17:17–23:21]
America as a Rogue State, Comparison to Israel: [23:21–28:38]
China’s Positioning & Global Pratfall of the US: [26:26–30:32]
Economic Consequences, Europe Most at Risk: [30:32–33:16]
Fuel Protests and Political Fallout: [35:16–38:00]

Alastair Campbell’s Interview with President Zelenskyy

[38:47–53:45]

Zelenskyy is described as open, energetic, and serious—a wartime leader, not a performer.
He does not want his presidency to be about himself; emphasizes collective struggle and his family’s experience of the war.
Warns, much like with Russia, that quick ceasefires allow aggressors to regroup and prepare for renewed offensives.
Advocates a larger, more assertive Europe—proposing Ukraine, UK, Norway, and Turkey join together for true continental security.
Stresses that current Western leadership must not trust Putin’s promises or fall for temporary, cosmetic “celebrations” of peace.

Quote:

“If you don’t have a sense of humor, you kind of finished. Your world sort of literally collapses.”
– Volodymyr Zelenskyy (paraphrased by Campbell) [44:17]

Additional Recommendations & Closing Thoughts

Stewart plugs other “Leading” interviews, highlighting British MP Naz Shah and US State Senator Sarah McBride for insight into different forms of global leadership and identity.
Campbell recommends new books by Florence Gaub and Arne Westad on global security (“future is at stake” and “The Coming Storm”).
Episode closes on a note of uncertainty for the Western-led order; Stewart notes that Trump’s move against Iran is boosting Russia’s ability to continue its war on Ukraine by raising funds and distracting Western support.

Final Thought:

“Trump is not just heedless of consequence, but by doing this completely unnecessary, chaotic world economy destroying madness in Iran, he’s actually totally undermining the West’s position against Russia and against China by distracting and blowing all the credibility, legitimacy, missiles and money on this unnecessary conflict.”
– Rory Stewart [58:15]

For Further Listening: Check out the full Zelenskyy interview on “The Rest Is Politics: Leading” and browse the extensive back catalogue for global insights on security and diplomacy.

End of Summary

Podcast Summary – The Rest Is Politics, Episode 521: “Trump’s Naval Blockade: Is America Becoming a Rogue State?” Released April 14, 2026 | Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Trump Naval Blockade – What Happened and Why?

[04:44, 07:01]

Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance, failed after 21 hours of ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
Immediately afterwards, Trump unilaterally announced a U.S. naval blockade on any vessel touching Iranian ports—an action not seen since WWII.
This move is freezing traffic through the Straits of Hormuz and sending global oil prices and economic anxiety rocketing.
Traditional allies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, European nations) are panicked; the blockade worsens instability far beyond the U.S. or Iran.

Quote:

"They started a process, they decided it's not gone exactly according to plan on day one. Therefore, we blow up the process."
– Alastair Campbell [12:52]

Flawed Negotiation Tactics – Diplomacy vs. Brutality

[07:01, 14:21]

Campbell compares Trump’s dealmaking to historic peace negotiations (Oslo, Dayton, Good Friday). He’s critical of Trump's impatience:
"This is classic Trump. I've got a ceasefire…the Pakistanis have helped us, I'm going to send J.D. Vance, and it's all going to be done. And they give up because Iran didn't fold on day one."
Stewart and Campbell highlight that meaningful diplomacy is a process, requiring patience and compromise—even gestures like a simple handshake can be symbolically powerful.
Trump’s team treats negotiations as one-shot deals, rigid and transactional, undermining long-term diplomacy.

U.S. Becoming a Rogue State?

[04:44, 23:21, 28:38]

Stewart worries the U.S. is now "celebrating, flouting, outrageously, chaotically defying" global norms, with actions more reminiscent of Israel (as a small country under existential threat) but on a much more dangerous, global scale.
Three possible paths:
1. Everyone acquiesces to U.S. unilateralism.
2. World collapses into copycat chaos.
3. Emergence of a new, more non-aligned (potentially China-led) global order.

Quote:

"What's beginning to happen here is an America which doesn't even pay lip service to global norms, in fact celebrates outrageously, chaotically defying them. The United States is increasingly behaving like Israel…But the U.S. isn't Israel. It's the architect of the entire global order."
– Rory Stewart [23:21, abridged]

Economic Shockwaves

[30:32, 31:31]

The blockade hits the Gulf, Asia, and European economies the hardest:
- Predicted 13% contraction for Qatar, 8% for UAE, billions lost in Gulf tourism and trade.
- Oil jumped from $60 to $100 per barrel at points.
- European consumer sentiment is at its lowest ever; energy costs soar.
The U.S. is partially insulated due to its shift to energy self-reliance, but consumer confidence is still plummeting.

Quote:

"It's economically catastrophic, it's environmentally catastrophic, and it's all caused by this one guy and his decision with Netanyahu to do what they've done."
– Alastair Campbell [31:31]

Chaos in U.S. Leadership & Decision-Making

[20:00, 22:00]

Campbell details Trump’s erratic overnight social media spree: from posting doctored “Jesus” images to policy declarations on the blockade, all between 10pm and 4am.
Stewart underscores that Trump’s unpredictability makes strategic or economic forecasting effectively impossible.

Quote:

"He is not sleeping, he is pretending to be Jesus, he is posting all night, he is not well."
– Alastair Campbell [21:00]

The Collapse of U.S. Moral Authority and the Rise of China

[26:26, 28:38]

Xi Jinping’s public call for international law and balanced global development is seen as sophisticated trolling, highlighting U.S. unpredictability.
Favorability of the U.S. is plummeting across the Middle East—China and Russia’s reputations are rising.
Campbell and Stewart warn that America’s actions set a precedent: if global norms mean little to the U.S., why should anyone else comply?

Is the World Facing a New Security Architecture?

[46:40, 47:36]

In Campbell’s interview with Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian leader floats the idea of rebuilding Europe’s security umbrella:
- A Europe that includes the UK, Norway, Ukraine, and Turkey—potentially a NATO-minus-America, with Europe as its own security guarantor.
- Ukraine, due to its military innovation and resilience, could become the backbone of a new alliance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Negotiation and Diplomacy
- "The process of negotiation did positively influence the behavior of Iran."
  – Alastair Campbell [12:52]
On Trump's unpredictability:
- "Anyone doing geopolitical analysis or advising a company should be pretty honest about the fact that nobody can see into this guy's brain."
  – Rory Stewart [17:17]
On the spread of disorder:
- “If another state were to do this now, what exactly was the US supposed to say? You violated global norms? They can’t say that anymore.”
  – Rory Stewart [28:38]
On real-world impacts:
- “Stock exchanges in the Gulf—Dubai down 15%, Qatar down 10%, Abu Dhabi down 5%. Travel and tourism industry is reckoned to be losing $600 million a day.”
  – Alastair Campbell [31:31]
On Trump’s leadership style:
- "Everything is turned into an aggressive emergency... Permanent emergency and theatre of cruelty."
  – Rory Stewart [23:21]

Timestamps for Key Segments

Trump’s Blockade, Breakdown of Negotiations: [04:44–12:52]
Process of Diplomacy & Negotation Lessons: [12:52–17:17]
Trying to Predict Trump, Leadership Chaos: [17:17–23:21]
America as a Rogue State, Comparison to Israel: [23:21–28:38]
China’s Positioning & Global Pratfall of the US: [26:26–30:32]
Economic Consequences, Europe Most at Risk: [30:32–33:16]
Fuel Protests and Political Fallout: [35:16–38:00]

Alastair Campbell’s Interview with President Zelenskyy

[38:47–53:45]

Zelenskyy is described as open, energetic, and serious—a wartime leader, not a performer.
He does not want his presidency to be about himself; emphasizes collective struggle and his family’s experience of the war.
Warns, much like with Russia, that quick ceasefires allow aggressors to regroup and prepare for renewed offensives.
Advocates a larger, more assertive Europe—proposing Ukraine, UK, Norway, and Turkey join together for true continental security.
Stresses that current Western leadership must not trust Putin’s promises or fall for temporary, cosmetic “celebrations” of peace.

Quote:

“If you don’t have a sense of humor, you kind of finished. Your world sort of literally collapses.”
– Volodymyr Zelenskyy (paraphrased by Campbell) [44:17]

Additional Recommendations & Closing Thoughts

Stewart plugs other “Leading” interviews, highlighting British MP Naz Shah and US State Senator Sarah McBride for insight into different forms of global leadership and identity.
Campbell recommends new books by Florence Gaub and Arne Westad on global security (“future is at stake” and “The Coming Storm”).
Episode closes on a note of uncertainty for the Western-led order; Stewart notes that Trump’s move against Iran is boosting Russia’s ability to continue its war on Ukraine by raising funds and distracting Western support.

Final Thought:

“Trump is not just heedless of consequence, but by doing this completely unnecessary, chaotic world economy destroying madness in Iran, he’s actually totally undermining the West’s position against Russia and against China by distracting and blowing all the credibility, legitimacy, missiles and money on this unnecessary conflict.”
– Rory Stewart [58:15]

For Further Listening: Check out the full Zelenskyy interview on “The Rest Is Politics: Leading” and browse the extensive back catalogue for global insights on security and diplomacy.

End of Summary