526. Trump's Orwellian Maths and the King's Special Relationship Mission

Summary

The Rest Is Politics – Episode 526

"Trump’s Orwellian Maths and the King’s Special Relationship Mission"
Date: April 28, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart explore the complexities of the UK's "special relationship" with the US in the context of Donald Trump's presidency and King Charles's diplomatic efforts. They discuss the breakdown of trust between the UK and the US, Trump's approach to governance (including his infamous misuse of mathematics), and the evolving dynamics within Europe and the Balkans. The episode also reflects on the broader challenges facing British grand strategy, European unity, corruption and transactional diplomacy, as well as ongoing Labour Party issues at home.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. King Charles’s Diplomatic Mission in the US

• [03:38] Alastair Campbell: Outlines episode themes: King’s US visit, UK-US special relationship, Trump’s behavior, the Balkans, and UK Labour issues.
• The King is described as a "Diplomatische Wunderwaffe" (diplomatic wonder weapon) [04:21], with hopes he can reinforce shared "values" in his speech to Congress [09:50].
• The contemporary relevance of the "special relationship," originally articulated by Churchill and Roosevelt, is debated—and whether it’s now broken by Trump’s abrasiveness.

  “The threats on Greenland, the tariffs, the continual humiliations and insults from Trump, does this mean that Britain now needs to think about a radically different grand strategy for the next 20 years?” – Rory Stewart [05:34]

2. The Breakdown of Trust and the Trump Effect

• Campbell and Stewart lay out how Trump’s transactional, ego-driven style puts strain on diplomacy and conventional alliances.
• There is a parallel drawn between Trump’s court-like White House and monarchic behavior, likening it to historic rulers who saw statesmanship as a personal extension of themselves.

  “Trump’s vanity and narcissism is such that he doesn’t really see Keir Starmer as his opposite number, because he sees himself as the king. He wants to be an emperor, he wants to be an unelected monarch.” – Alastair Campbell [06:12]

• Concerns about Trump's unpredictability during the state visit, the challenge for King Charles if Trump publicly insults the UK, and the importance of Charles’s speech emphasizing international law, alliances, and democracy.

3. UK Grand Strategy: Navigating a Changing World

• Discussion of three possible UK responses to US unreliability:
  • Adopting a transactional, lobbying-heavy approach (like some Balkan states—deemed unsuitable for British culture).
  • The Macron "grand statements" approach, often lacking follow-through.
  • Serious work to rebuild ties with Europe, invest in strategic independence (AI, critical minerals, nuclear, etc.)—with concern the UK may instead stick to wishful thinking.
• Comparison with Canada and Germany (Merz and Carney’s more pragmatic, Europe-oriented strategies) [12:19].
• The emerging critique: Post-Trump, would America revert to "normal"? Both hosts doubt a return to earlier patterns, regardless of which party is in power.
• The UK’s deep dependency on the US for nuclear, cloud computing, “Five Eyes” intelligence, and global finance is highlighted.

  “We’ve spent 80 years becoming completely dependent. ... The whole world is locked in a kind of abusive marriage where essentially the Trump administration is saying to everybody else, you can’t afford to leave me.” – Rory Stewart [17:06]

4. Orwellian Maths: Trump's Manipulation of Truth

• [23:19-29:58] Alastair Campbell humorously, but pointedly dissects Trump’s misuse of percentage reductions in drug prices—a symbol of "Orwellian" truth-bending.
  • e.g., Trump boasts of “500%” or “1,200%” drug price cuts, which is mathematically nonsensical.
  • Campbell: “The most powerful man in the world can’t count, can’t add up, doesn’t know what percentage is. Why have we got somebody so stupid as president, and why do we treat them as normal?” [27:53]
  • Stewart: “He just thinks big numbers are better, so he’ll just produce a bigger number. I don’t think it’s really maths...” [27:59]
  • Campbell: “This is Orwellian. I think it’s him essentially saying whatever comes from my mouth is the truth, even if it is not borne out by reality. And I think if we can’t all agree on what a fact is, I don’t know how you have a democracy.” [29:39]

5. European Unity, Leadership, and the Balkans

• The need for robust European integration is juxtaposed with leaders’ lack of bold moves.
• Campbell is skeptical of incremental approaches and calls for a John Monnet-like figure for a new era of European unity [22:19].
• Macron is portrayed as hesitant on EU enlargement and protective of France’s leadership and independent nuclear arsenal [20:55].
• Extensive discussion of the challenge of bringing in Serbia and other Balkans into the EU, despite unresolved conflicts (Kosovo, Transnistria, Crimea) [50:05].
• President Vucic of Serbia’s hardline stance on Kosovo is reviewed, as is the wider Balkan backlash to westward intervention and perceived western hypocrisy [35:01+].

6. Corruption & Transactionalism in the Trump Era

• The hosts share stories about Balkan and Gulf states funnelling money to US lobbyists and Trump insiders for access and favors—often with little return.
  • “It is astonishing in that region what you pick up on... The stories about hotels everywhere...” – Stewart [45:00]
  • Trump business figures (Kushner, Trump Jr.) are alleged to have tried turning bomb-damaged sites in Belgrade into luxury hotels.
  • US corruption under Trump is called “off the scale and it’s in plain sight.” [47:24]

7. Labour Party and Current UK Politics

• Brief discussion of Labour’s internal scandal (Starmer referral), likened to past convoluted Westminster controversies [52:11ff].
• Polling woes for Labour amid public disillusionment and local election prospects.
• Reflection on the cyclical nature of Westminster scandals and the challenges of capturing public attention.

8. Reflections on Interviewing Controversial Figures

• The previous interview with Serbia’s President Vucic receives both praise and criticism: some listeners find value in hearing alternative voices, while others accuse the hosts of being too soft.
• Both Campbell and Stewart discuss the importance of "understanding people of different opinion in a polarized world," rejecting the 'gotcha' style of contemporary political interviewing in favor of meaningful engagement [41:00+].
  • “I think people are sick of these gotcha interviews... as opposed to with Vucic... we’re going to try and find out a little bit more about who you are and what you’re trying to do.” – Campbell [44:20]

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Quotes & Memorable Moments (by Timestamp)

• On the special relationship:
  “We diminished in size, we became a smaller and smaller economy, and we somehow managed to keep a form of global power going through this US relationship. And the question now is, is it broken?” – Rory Stewart [05:34]

• On Trump’s presidency:
  “The most powerful man in the world can’t count, can’t add up, doesn’t know what percentage is. Why have we got somebody so stupid as president, and why do we treat them as normal?” – Alastair Campbell [27:53]

• On UK's strategic options:
  “The British option, default British option, is to basically do nothing, take that speech at Congress literally and pretend it’s all going to be fine... Pretend that, because it’s too costly, too risky, too expensive to work out how on earth we’re going to work without Trident and cloud computing. Let’s just keep our head down.” – Rory Stewart [11:09]

• On European unity:
  “I honestly do think that it means us getting back into European Union fully fledged. I’ve come to the view that the sort of single market customs union is nice, but it’s not going to take you there.” – Alastair Campbell [19:57]

• On Trump’s Orwellian maths:
  “This is Orwellian. I think it’s him essentially saying whatever comes from my mouth is the truth, even if it is not borne out by reality. And I think if we can’t all agree on what a fact is, I don’t know how you have a democracy.” – Alastair Campbell [29:39]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:38 - Outline of episode themes
• 04:25 – 07:16 - History and current status of the UK-US “special relationship”
• 09:50 – 12:19 - UK options in dealing with a Trumpian US and strategic dependencies
• 15:37 – 18:05 - Deep dependencies: nuclear, intelligence, technology, cloud computing
• 23:19 – 29:58 - Trump’s “Orwellian maths” and the danger of truth manipulation
• 32:11 – 41:00 - Balkans background and reflections on interviewing Vucic
• 44:42 – 50:36 - Corruption, Trump family transactions in the Balkans, and how this reflects broader international trends
• 52:11 – 54:58 - Labour Party scandal and polling outlook

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Tone & Approach

Throughout, Campbell and Stewart retain their trademark mix of candor, wit, and seriousness. They balance rigorous analysis with anecdote and direct criticism, yet repeatedly emphasize the necessity for open, good-faith dialogue—even with ideological adversaries.

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Summary: Why Listen to This Episode?

This wide-ranging discussion deftly dissects the major challenges facing modern British and global politics: the unreliable US-UK relationship post-Trump, the difficulties of forging European unity, the corrosive effects of corruption and transactional diplomacy, the importance of confronting the erosion of truth, and the role of open-minded debate in political dialogue. It’s an insightful primer for anyone seeking to understand the state of international relations and political culture in 2026.

Transcript

[Alastair Campbell]

Thanks for listening to the rest is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show Tickets, go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com Trump's vanity and narcissism is such that he sees himself as the king. He wants to be an emperor. He wants to be an unelected monarch.

[Rory Stewart]

And the question now is, is it broken? The continual humiliations and insults from Trump, does this mean that Britain now needs to think about a radically different grand strategy for the next 20?

[Alastair Campbell]

Trust has broken down because of the way that Trump has conducted himself.

[Rory Stewart]

The whole world is locked in a kind of abusive marriage where the Trump administration is saying to everybody else, you can't afford to leave me.

[Alastair Campbell]

The most powerful man in the world can't count, can't add up, doesn't know what percentage is. Why have we got somebody so stupid as president? And why do we treat them as normal? This episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy.

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[Rory Stewart]

Welcome to the Rest of the Politics with me, Rory Stewart.

[Alastair Campbell]

And with me, Alastair Campbell. So with the King in the United States, we're going to be talking about his role in diplomacy. We're going to talk about Donald Trump and expectations for the visit. We're going to talk about what that says about the broader relationship between the UK special relationship, so called, between the UK and the US we're going to talk a lot about the Balkans because we did a very interesting interview with President of Serbia this week and we're going to get into broader picture in that region which is, I think we don't talk about enough. And we're going to talk a little bit about what's happening inside Labour on a day when Geir Starmer yet again is facing a few travails. I heard a wonderful expression on my German podcast this morning, Rory, about King Charles. Said he's a Diplomatische Wunderwaffe.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, what's that mean?

[Alastair Campbell]

Means a diplomatic wonder weapon.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, wonderful.

[Alastair Campbell]

So there you go.

[Rory Stewart]

Let me start you off then on the King's visit. So right at the heart of this is this whole question of this thing called the special relationship, which was put together almost exactly 80 years ago, this phrase by Winston Churchill and it defined a world that was an anomaly, emerged really in the Second World War through the relationship between Roosevelt and Churchill. And after the Second World War was a big UK bet that they could be the junior partner in a US liberal order and broadly speaking, America leading the world and US doing what we were told would work because there'd be free trade, there'd be a clear financial system, there'd be a rules based international order, there'd be a United nations. And it's not always been easy, and there have been moments where it's been a bit scratchy. So I was reminded not just of the fact that Harold Wilson refused to go into the Vietnam War, but Edward Heath refused to allow the US to use British bases or overflight for the Yom Kippur War. There were controversies, Even with the 1986 Libya bombing, where other European states refused to allow the US to use bases for overfly. And we did. And then, of course, there was the relationship that you saw with Blair and Bush. But ultimately, it sort of worked as a bet for Britain. We diminished in size, we became a smaller and smaller economy, and we somehow managed to keep a form of global power going through this U.S. relationship. And the question now is, is it broken? The threats on Greenland, the tariffs, the continual humiliations and insults from Trump, does this mean that Britain now needs to think about a radically different grand strategy for the next 20 years? Over to you.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. And also, it wasn't just the fact of the special relationship. The other pillar was our leadership role in Europe. So the problem is that over the last decade, there's a risk that we lose both. And that's why I think, at the start of Trump's second term, Kirstan was right to try to build some kind of relationship. But he's discovered, as does everybody who crosses Trump, that unless you, when Trump says jump, you just say, how high? Then you fall out. The reason why I think D' er Spiegel calls Charles a Diplomatische Wunderwaffe is because Trump's vanity and narcissism is such that he doesn't really see Keir Starmer as his opposite number, because he sees himself as the king. He wants to be an emperor, he wants to be a unelected monarch. He behaves like one. He surrounds himself by sycophants in the

[Rory Stewart]

way that a medieval monarch would.

[Alastair Campbell]

A medieval monarch would. Yeah, says Rory Stewart. Lest I say that any bollock surrounds himself with sycophants, amongst who Rory Stewart

[Rory Stewart]

might be, I think contemporary monarchs may be surrounded by sycophants, but given that they're not shaping all foreign policy.

[Alastair Campbell]

And also, I think, to be fair to your friend the King, I think he does actually quite like to occasionally meet people who challenge his views and what have you, but the risk of them.

[Rory Stewart]

I mean, sorry, just on this king thing, I think it's a really, you know, when we're trying to understand how Trump makes decisions in foreign policy, we've tried different types of analysis. We've had the very strong one, I think, which you and Michael Wolff were pushing, which is the reality TV star. There is the View, which is often sold by the Mooch, which is he's fundamentally either interested in headlines or making money. But I think another very powerful way of seeing him is to see it really as a court and to. I mean, I've been reading recently in a very geeky way about Elizabeth I dealing with the Spanish in the Netherlands in the late 1500s. And you get a very Trumpian sense. I mean, she will promise troops, and then she'll pull them out. She'll insist they pay for the troops, which are her own troops. You know, you've got to pay for my bases, but then I'm going to reserve the right to move them off somewhere else. And why does this happen? Well, fundamentally, because she's a queen, right. And Trump is behaving like that. And a lot of the things that we're going to get onto with Serbia, with bribing, with corruption comes out of the nature of this court.

[Alastair Campbell]

I did, talking of court, I did the podcast the Court of History the other day with Sidney Blumenthal, who used to work for the Clintons, and a guy called Sean Valentz. And it was interesting. They were essentially. It's the court of history, but they essentially were seeing Trump in those terms. And Sean actually made the point that within the White House now, in terms of any history, there are the occasional picture of a Lincoln or an fdr, but essentially, all of the historical stuff in there now is about Trump. And he actually said that Trump's view of history is that history is what has preceded his arrival. And it's all been a preparation for that, and that's how he thinks. And so what King Charles has to do, and it's gonna be a very tricky thing, because if you remember when Trump came over here, when the queen was still alive, I think I'm right. He's the only person I ever saw walking in front of the queen. You know, he just thought, I'm more important. I'll walk in front of her. These troops are here from me. I'll go and say hello to them. There will be something unexpected. I was talking to somebody who kind of works in the palace planning, Stu, who said, you know, part of their planning has been there will be something unexpected. What do we do? And the answer is stay calm and carry on. Basically, it's interesting how they're not filming everything. There's going to be a lot of kind of grainy color and Black and white photograph of the history books. His encounters with Trump are not all on camera. They're obviously worried Trump will say something and it will be difficult. Let's just imagine if Trump does go off on one about London, about Sadiq Khan, about Keir Starmer, about Iran. It does put your friend the King in a difficult position because he can't just stand there. If Britain and the government of Britain is being insulted, is being insulted now, I don't think Trump will do it, but you can't rule it out. I think the key thing is going to be Charles's speech to Congress, because that will be a text. And what we hear, by the time a lot of people listen to this, it will already have happened. But what we hear is that he is going to emphasize, yes, cooperation, yes, reconciliation, yes. There have been times where we've fallen out, but ultimately, international law, alliances, democracy. So I really, really, really hope he pushes hard on the values buttons, because I think that is what the world needs to hear.

[Rory Stewart]

Absolutely. I wonder, though, and that seems very good. I mean, in the immediate term, it's almost, I guess, what you would have advised the King to do, talk about international alliances, talk about democracy. But the deeper issue is raised by Serbia, which we're going to get onto a little bit later in this program, which is the Serbia option of dealing with Trump and the Gulf option and the Balkan option is very, very transactional. Pretty close to lobbying, bribing contracts to try to get its attention and access. That's one option.

[Alastair Campbell]

Option two is, I can't see the King doing that.

[Rory Stewart]

No. Option two for Britain. I'm trying to think about British options. Can Britain behave like a Gulf country or a Balkan country? Probably not, because we may not have as much to offer and our political culture wouldn't allow us to behave like that. Option two is the kind of Macron option, which is to make great statements and claims about a new world order, but it's not quite clear whether it ever gets delivered. I mean, you can imagine Macron still making those speeches in 2035 and not much has changed. Option three is that you really begin to do the serious work in working out how Britain and gets lockstep with Europe and begins to work out how it becomes more independent and more dependent on critical minerals, AI, nuclear, etc. Really does the work. But I fear the British option, default British option, is to basically do nothing, take that speech at Congress literally and pretend it's all going to be fine. Pretend that, you know, because it's too costly, too Risky. Too expensive to work out how on earth we're going to work without Trident and cloud computing. Let's just keep our head down. Hope Trump. Trump's an anomaly. Lean into the idea that America's always been our friends and somehow it's all going to be fine.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, well, that would not work. I don't think. That also depends on whether we think that post Trump, America reverts to some kind of normality. And I'm not convinced that it does, even with the Democrats, frankly. The couple of leaders you didn't mention there who I think are really interesting to watch at the moment, one is Carney. And Canada is now amongst the many moves they made, now announcing their own sovereign wealth fund. They are talking about getting a lot closer to Europe. And Merz yesterday, I don't know if you saw it. I sent you. I'm going to give you. Do you remember my favorite German word that I learned last month? Planlozichkite.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, my gosh, planlessness.

[Alastair Campbell]

That's what Merz has said about what's happening in Iran. Merz did a very, very critical intervention yesterday. He basically said Iran has been underestimated. They're humiliating Trump and in fact, they're humiliating an entire country. And it's happening because they went into this without a clear strategy.

[Rory Stewart]

Should I understand that for a second? That's really interest? Because obviously Germany, as usual, at the heart of a lot of this conversation, because they're the people with the money and they're the people who would finance.

[Alastair Campbell]

Finance less than they had. And also he's really worried about the effect of the Iran war on the German economy.

[Rory Stewart]

But given that immediately after the Iran war, he seemed to be a bit sort of where international law doesn't really matter. I'm going out to see Trump. I'm sitting next to him, and Trump starts insulting the Spanish leader because he's not supporting the Iran war. And Metz doesn't really intervene. So the first few days of the Iran war, Metz, took quite a lot of political cost, deciding not to be very critical of the Iran war and to sort of gently imply.

[Alastair Campbell]

Do you know why? I think because Israel was involved and it's so difficult for German leaders to criticize Israel. And it's interesting how he's. This was very much focused on the United States, what he was saying yesterday

[Rory Stewart]

and why politically, once you've taken the cost of not really coming, you know, not finding your great Spanish prime minister moment, why then two months later come out and make the critical statements?

[Alastair Campbell]

I think because he was hoping that if the world pressed in a sort of option, 1, 2, 3, kind of way, that something might come of it. What's happened over two months is Trump has listened to nobody, essentially apart from himself and his sycophants. And I think what Mertz was reflecting, and it was interesting how he did it. He did it in a Q and A with school children and it was very, very strong. So I think he's just decided this is a sort of tipping point thing. Macron's definitely there. Macron did a briefing to journalists the other day where he was basically saying, we've got to kind of move on from America. I think Carney was there ahead of all of them. I think you're right that there's a danger that the UK just thinks we can kind of muddle through. And the goal of this visit of the King is to improve the relationship. So, in a way, what the King, and possibly the government will want out of this is at the end of the four days, people to say, well, he went and things seem better and Trump behaved, but we won't be back to normal, because it's not that long ago that Trump had a state visit here and said how much he loved the uk, et cetera. So you'll say all that again, but the fundamentals haven't changed. And your point about tech nuclear, these are massive issues that we have to get on top of. And I know in Q and A, in the question time, we're going to talk about some of the tech issues, but I still worry, post Peter Kyle, that I sort of feel that AI is almost vanishing from our debate.

[Rory Stewart]

Can I just come back to this European point and the Carney metz? Firstly, it's not an easy decision. I want to give credit to why Starmer and Whitehall may sometimes look like they're burying their heads in the sand.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, just on that, look at the price Kira's paid over Iran. Just look at the very simple thing of saying, this is not our war, we don't support what's been done. Just look at the consequences of that in terms of rhetoric.

[Rory Stewart]

And also this extraordinary statement, which is worth talking about a little bit, which is that Elbridge Colby has prepared a position paper suggesting that the US may no longer support the UK in its attempt to hold onto its sovereign territory in the Falkland Islands, and instead be prepared for media in Argentina to have a.

[Alastair Campbell]

Did you know the next chapter, what I predict will be the next chapter in that story, that will be the next time that Hexith and Colby go on about how the once great British military, in other words, they're picking on something where they can say, well, we know that this will annoy the Brits, but actually they're below the line. They're basically saying, we wouldn't be able to do it without us anyway. So I thought that was a very deliberate, very provocative, very aggressive move. They undermine themselves by tying it in with the idea that Spain should be kicked out of NATO, which can't be done, because if you kick Spain out of NATO, NATO's done. Now, you could argue we talked about this before. You could argue NATO's done already. Interestingly, again, from the briefing that I picked up, Charles is going to talk about the importance of NATO. And again, I hope he does.

[Rory Stewart]

Let me just come back to this thing. So I think there are two moves. There's the bury the head and the sound move. And as you said, there's a cost. And it's not just rhetorically being bullied and humiliated by Trump. It's that we don't really know how to think about having a nuclear deterrent, which isn't basically being covered by the Americans. We don't really remotely know how we could build up our own large language model like ChatGPT or Claude. We've no idea really what we would do without American cloud computing or the dollar or five eyes. In other words, we've spent 80 years becoming completely dependent. We're like, I sometimes think we're sort of potentially, the whole world is locked in a kind of abusive marriage where essentially the Trump administration is saying to everybody else, you can't afford to leave me. Yeah, okay, you might complain and I might humiliate you and beat you up, but the fact is, you'd never be able to make it on your own. Too expensive, too complicated. You're screwed. Right.

[Alastair Campbell]

That's because we believed we had a relationship of trust, and that trust has broken down largely, I would argue, because of the way that Trump has conducted himself.

[Rory Stewart]

And it turned out they weren't really joint bank accounts. We didn't really have joint venture, perhaps.

[Alastair Campbell]

And there was certainly no prenup.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, there was certainly no prenup as the whole event. So painful, horrible. You can see why people want to bury their head in the sands. And my experience in government. You're a bit more optimistic about government, but my experience in government is generally change is difficult. And if the whole institutions, our intelligence service, our foreign office, our army, have spent 80 years built around the assumption that they're just junior partners in the United States, Changing that requires a complete revolution at the top of the civil service, top government. Let's now go down the other option. Let's imagine that we really concluded that it's not sensible anymore to put all our eggs in the American basket. That doesn't mean getting a bit with China. It doesn't mean we'll ever be entirely independent. There will still be many things we'll have to depend on the US for, and in many ways we'll share things with them. But we need to hedge. And that brings us to our stub square. And how do we develop this European, Canadian, British square? The pessimistic view, which would be the Elbridge Colby view, and the view from the Republicans, is they'll never get it together. My various wives may claim they're going to leave the house, but the fact is the Germans are never going to fund it. The French are going to be selfish and just insist all industrial policy is done in France. The Canadians are going to talk a great game, but they don't really want to get it close to Europe. And Britain has too many internal political problems and it doesn't have the money to do it. Do you think there is a world in which Germany, France, uk, Canada can really begin to pull? And what would be those steps? And what would Metz have to do, what would Macron have to do, and what would Starmer have to do to actually rebalance?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I honestly do think that it means us getting back into European Union fully fledged. I've come to the view that the sort of single market customs union is nice, but it's not going to take you there. I worry, as you know, as you call him, my friend, Emmanuel Macron. But I do worry that he doesn't necessarily share this vision. I worry we'll talk about this maybe, when we talk about Vucic. I worry that actually Macron is the one who is most reluctant on enlargement. I'm actually with Zelenskyy and Vucic, and in a sense, if we're going to make Europe big, make it big, and if that means changing some of the rules, then see whether that can be done.

[Rory Stewart]

So just tell me more about Macron, because that's very interesting. So not keen on big enlargement and also a little bit hesitant on creating this fourth corner. I mean, how does it work? What's going on in Macron's head?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, he. Has you mentioned the nuclear stuff. France is now the. If people understand that our nuclear deterrent is very wrapped up in America, militarily, technically, et cetera France literally has the only independent nuclear deterrent in Europe. That gives them an extra strength. I think he sees that as a strength that should be exploited. But I think this is about politics. I think they're genuinely worried about their politics and the impact of enlargement, so

[Rory Stewart]

that he would think it's just politically impossible, it'd be too unpopular, it would help repent too much if you.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, so I think. I think you talk the talk, but you don't necessarily. You know, in the end, the member states have got to give the leadership on enlargement. You know, the commission can do all this stuff and they can go through chapter by chapter, as they do. Montenegro, for example, is making huge progress at the moment. But the big step, I think we're talking about big steps and Colby, you're right, is going to sit there thinking these guys aren't going to make the big moves. I think the only big move is actually for people to say, this requires more Europe, not less. It absolutely requires us to be back in there. Germany, I think the Germans would be more pragmatic about it. I think they would and does.

[Rory Stewart]

Matt's got a sort of big, grand strategic view, do you think?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I don't know, but I think. I thought this is the reason why I think it was so interesting what he did yesterday. The big, grand strategic view used to be we are absolutely all in with America. That is changing. That is clearly changing.

[Rory Stewart]

Even from someone who's on the right.

[Alastair Campbell]

Absolutely, yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Would have been more sympathetic, actually.

[Alastair Campbell]

So I don't believe the left in

[Rory Stewart]

German politics did have a tradition of being a bit anti American sometimes. Right.

[Alastair Campbell]

Still there. I don't believe Angela Merkel would have said what Matt said yesterday. So that's changing. But I think what I worry about from Labour's perspective is that we're doing this kind of incremental change. I think the French and Germans are doing their equivalent of it. And I actually think what we need. You know, we talked to your friend Gerald Knauss about John Monet a lot. We kind of. I think we need another Monet to come along and say, look, this is not big enough. What we're thinking at the moment, it's interesting.

[Rory Stewart]

We'll maybe take a break and then come back to vui. But the transition into Vucic is one of the things that he was saying is a security argument. He was essentially saying, Europe faces two paths, and he was almost blackmailing and threatening. He was saying, either the US basically scoops up a lot of Eastern Europe and the Balkans and creates its own transactional relationships with them. Dividing Eastern Europe from Western Europe or Europe reaches out, brings in these countries, and, as Zelenskyy said, is a security argument.

[Alastair Campbell]

And he was adding in Norway, Turkey, uk, Ukraine. Rory, before we go to the break, you know I've been utterly obsessed about Trump and percentages.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, yes.

[Alastair Campbell]

And we now have to confront this because it is more serious than people think. So, look, if I get my spectacles like that. Okay. I'm holding that. What happens if I take my finger and thumb away?

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, they drop onto the table.

[Alastair Campbell]

Correct. Yeah, they've dropped onto the table. That is a basic fact that we all accept. We understand gravity because of Trump and Putin and polarization. There's nothing that is accepted universally as truth. Apart from science and maths. Yep. Okay. What is 2 plus 2?

[Rory Stewart]

4.

[Alastair Campbell]

What is 3 times 3?

[Rory Stewart]

9.

[Alastair Campbell]

If you go into a shop and buy something for 40 pence and you give a pound, what does the shopkeeper give you back? And what are the various formulations? That would be.

[Rory Stewart]

I feel like I'm doing my kids.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yes, exactly, exactly. But there's not a single person listening to this, including the least educated. You don't understand that. Basic maths.

[Rory Stewart]

I'm worried you're going to ask me a question. I don't know the answer. You're going to be like, what's Felicity 3 times 52?

[Alastair Campbell]

I'm not going to do that. I've got some more complicated ones coming. If you see a shop and it says 50% off everything.

[Rory Stewart]

Yes. Okay.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay. And you go in before you bought a mug in there that cost £10.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. £5 now. Correct.

[Alastair Campbell]

50% of Ted is £5.05 comes off. So if something's 100% off.

[Rory Stewart]

Oh, yeah, it would be free.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay. If it was 200% off. Ah.

[Rory Stewart]

Then the shopkeeper would have to give me money, maybe.

[Alastair Campbell]

Correct. Yeah, you do really, really, really well. So you can't have more than 100% drop. Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

Impossible.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

So why does Donald Trump constantly say. Constantly say that he's cut drug prices by variously 300%, 400%, 500% and 1200%? And why is that not covered anywhere in the world's media?

[Rory Stewart]

It's amazing. What do we think he means?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I'm going to explain what he means, because the other Robert and Kennedy Jr. Explained what he meant. He was asked by Elizabeth Warren at a Senate hearing what was the difference of the cost of a drug on Trumprx, which is their website, and the price at costo yeah. Kennedy didn't answer the question, but he said, he said this. President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. There are two ways of calculating percentages.

[Rory Stewart]

That's very good.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

He then says, he says that my nine year old does that. Daddy, there are two ways of doing the maths problem. There's my way and everyone else.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, there might be, but then he goes on to say, if you have a $600 drug and it goes to $10, that's a 600% reduction. Is it?

[Rory Stewart]

No, it's not.

[Alastair Campbell]

No, it's 98.33% correct. Because 600 minus 10 is 590. The next day in the Oval Office, Kennedy reports to Trump on his encounter with Warren with the World's meter there, he says she was ridiculing President Trump for his math. Math, I hate that. Which he was saying, you can't reduce something by 600%. So Kennedy, thinking he's smart, tries to show her wrong. He said if a drug went from $100 to $600, that's a 600% rise. Is it?

[Rory Stewart]

No, it's six. Six times. It's gone up six times.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yes, but that is a 500% rise because the increase, 60 minus 100 is 500. You divide the increase by the original price. 500 divided by 100 is five. To convert the percentage, five times 100 equals 500%.

[Rory Stewart]

So he's trying to say it's a 500% rise. And therefore Trump might think it's a 600% reduction.

[Alastair Campbell]

He might think whatever he thinks. But then we have, then we have. It's actually an 83.3% change. Okay. Now Trump then steps in. Kennedy's been blowing so much smoke up his backside that he's now smiling and saying, yeah, he said, I take a lot of heat. I would say 500, 600, 700. We also say sometimes 50, 60, 70, 80, 90. People understand that better. There's two ways of calculating it, but either way, it doesn't make any difference whether it's 60, 70 or 80. Nobody's ever heard of it. But it's also 500, 600, 700, depending on the way you want to look at it. The way you word the calculation, it's either way. But Bobby, you're doing a fantastic job.

[Rory Stewart]

Brilliant.

[Alastair Campbell]

It is utterly. It's the most brain dead. It's just nonsense. You can't, you can't. And then nobody can you imagine if Joe Biden had said that?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

Can you imagine if Keir Starmer said that. Can you imagine a macro? Imagine if you and I said it on the podcast. People get that 50 is the same as 500.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

They would think we'd lost it. So why have we got somebody so stupid as president, and why do we treat them as normal?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, it's a good question. It's good. It's a fundamental question. I don't. I think he. I think what he's doing is just. He just thinks big numbers are better, so he'll just produce a bigger number. I don't think it's really maths. I think what he's trying to say is, well, you know, I've reduced it a lot, and, you know, 60% doesn't sound like much.

[Alastair Campbell]

1. He hasn't reduced it a lot.

[Rory Stewart]

So why don't I say 600%? And that doesn't sound like very much. So when I say 1,200%, that sounds a bit bigger.

[Alastair Campbell]

But, Rory, you're big.

[Rory Stewart]

I just want to be big.

[Alastair Campbell]

You're normalizing the abnormal. And the reason why I think this is serious, I think it's right out of the nothing is true, anything is possible playbook. This is about. And it's also deliberately dumbing down his country.

[Rory Stewart]

It's a different type of thing, isn't it? It's total sort of absurd bullshit. I mean, Putin wouldn't do that because traditional dictators. Nothing's true, everything's possible. Are trying to say things which might be plausible. I mean, they're lies, but they might be plausible.

[Alastair Campbell]

Special military operation.

[Rory Stewart]

This guy has gone into a.

[Alastair Campbell]

No, I think. I genuinely think he doesn't know the difference. Iran negotiations with the Iranians. Right. The Iranian foreign minister is a former nuclear engineer. Right. He sends in Vance and Wyckoff. Vance, who, by the way, stands there nodding as Trump comes up with this numerical bullshit.

[Rory Stewart]

But missing opportunity for the Iranians. Maybe they can say we're not reducing our nuclear stockpile by 10%.

[Alastair Campbell]

You're not taking it seriously. Well, I do not see that as a serious point. That the most powerful man in the world can't count. Can't count, can't add up. Doesn't know what percentage is.

[Rory Stewart]

I think all of it's terrifying. It's horrifying. It's horrifying. It doesn't horrify me as much as what's about to happen to Britain due to our complete inability to restructure our international relations. But, yes, I agree, Trump is horrifying.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I don't think you've taken it seriously enough. No, so the reason I think it's really serious because I think this is Orwellian. I think it's him essentially saying whatever comes from my mouth is the truth, even if it is not borne out by reality. And I think if we can't all agree on what a fact is, I don't know how you have a democracy.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, and that'll be true right at the heart of any democracy that the idea of truth, accountability, transparency, all these jargon words are bound up because you can't vote for someone unless you can trust them to deliver what they say they're going to deliver. And you can't hold them accountable unless you have some idea of what the truth of what they're doing is. So once you create a world in which a leader can say black is white, Orwellian, red is blue, there is no way of holding anyone accountable.

[Alastair Campbell]

And that's where he wants to be. Okay, let's take a break and then come back and talk about the Balkans and a little bit about labour.

[Rory Stewart]

This episode is sponsored by Starling, the bank that helps you organize your money, build great habits and stay in control of your spending. Plenty of us have strong opinions on how to run the country, but knowing how to manage your own day to day can be more of a challenge, especially when it comes to being good with money. That kind of self assured self governance could start with just checking your balance daily. And yes, it can feel like opening the books at the treasury, but eventually you'll feel like the Chancellor of your own ideal exchequer.

[Alastair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

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[Alastair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

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[Alastair Campbell]

Welcome back to the Rest of the

[Rory Stewart]

Politics with me Alistair Campbell and with me Rory Stewart.

[Alastair Campbell]

So Rory, I think of all the interviews we've done, I'm not sure any of them with the possible exception of Al Shara have got quite as much publicity as particularly the Balkans as the interview that we did last week with President Vucic. But before we go into that, why don't you. Well, we got a bit of feedback, people from people saying, you know, we really. I thought it was one of our most interesting interviews, but people saying, we don't know much about this part of the world, kind of, why does it matter? So tell people, before we get any further, why it matters as much as it does.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I think that the first reason it matters is that this is where the big European war was, right in the very heart of Europe. So if you look at a map, Serbia is sitting there in the middle of the European Union, with European Union countries all the way around. And that was where, in the early 90s, Yugoslavia broke. And a war particularly broke out between initially Serbia, Croatia and Bosnian Muslims with these horrifying genocides, millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands of people killed, Sarajevo under siege, paramilitaries, war criminals, Mladic, Karadi. And then in 99, the Serbs mounted an operation which was an operation of ethnic cleansing, even potentially genocide, against the Kosovo Albanian population. So that's an autonomous region in southern Serbia, which meant a lot to Serbian nationalists because it was the place where in the late Middle Ages, they'd fought a great heroic battle against the Ottomans, but was by 1999, majority dominated by Kosovo Albanian Muslims. And that then led to the second intervention. First intervention was everybody getting involved in intervention in Bosnia, stopping the war, stopping the killing in Sarajevo in the mid-90s. And the second intervention, which you were very involved in, was this intervention in 99, which eventually ended up with Milosevic's troops, the Serbian leaders troops being pushed back, Kosovar achieving autonomy, and then eventually being recognized as an independent state by many countries. But not, for example, by. Certainly not by Serbia, but not even by places like Spain.

[Alastair Campbell]

I think there are five countries which don't recognise Kosovo inside the eu.

[Rory Stewart]

And Vucic matters because Serbia was supposed to be part of a story which to some extent Croatia is part of, which is how this horror, this civil war, this ethnic cleansing, was fixed by joining the European Union. Borders disappear, you're integrated into a whole new political structure. And Serbia was meant to be on that journey. It hasn't happened. And instead of which, it's ended up with an Orban adjacent authoritarian ruler who we interviewed over to you.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. Just to give you the background. So Yugoslavia was made up of Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Slovenia and Macedonia. So two of those have joined the European Union. Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro is getting closer and closer and closer, and you get the feeling that the Serbs are not. They're really not happy. But clear he's not happy about Montenegro getting in ahead of Serbia. So what. What followed from Yugoslavia was what was called fry. The Federal Republic of Serbia of Yugoslavia, which was the union of State of Serbia, Montenegro. Montenegro then becomes independence. You've got Serbia. I found it fascinating to see him. I've seen him a few times in the past. He and I were opposite numbers during the Kosovo war. I thought he'd have mellowed a bit in relation to Kosovo, but I don't think he has at all. Whether that was just for a very nationalistic domestic audience, I don't know. The main story that seems to have appeared in. In Serb media was when he said to me, some of us have principles, Alistair, which was seen as a sort of direct hit.

[Rory Stewart]

And which he. Of what we did, we had an interesting series of meetings with bits of his staff, and they were very much insisting that he doesn't control the media. My goodness. The coverage demonstrates just how much influence he has over certain really key bits of media. Once they decided they were briefing out. Some of us have principles out of state. It was everywhere. I mean, tell us a little bit about how much everywhere it was.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I have a friend who was there who was just sending me as they were landing all the stuff that was being covered. And I mean, there were dozens even. Just the fact of us being there. If you remember, I posted a picture of my tree of the day at a park outside the hotel in Belgrade. And even that led to dozens just regurgitating. One of them actually said, you know, belgrade welcomes the return of the NATO bomber. Right. Which I thought was a bit off. He was so nice and charming before the interview. And actually, I didn't. Fiona, my Fiona thought he was rude and aggressive. I didn't find him rude and aggressive. I just thought he was very spiky and absolutely determined not to give an inch on Kosovo. So most of the stories were actually about the Kosovo war.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, let me just do a quick explain on the Kosovo war so people understand the two sides to this. So from the point of view of. Of the United Kingdom and the United States and those other countries, I think it was almost 19 of them who joined the alliance. This was the responsibility to protect. Here was a Kosovar Albanian Muslim population that was being ethnically cleansed and the west was intervening to save lives, drive back the Serbian aggressive forces and defend the human rights of the Kosovo Albanians from The Serbian point of view, Kosovo was absolutely part of Serbia. This was an illegal intervention with no proper UN clearance and backing. It was breaking the sovereign borders of a European state, interfering in its own internal affairs. And they very much see Kosovo as being a central part of Serbia, totally reject the idea of its independence. And he was also trying to argue in the interview that what happened in 99 was actually the end of the global international order because it was an operation without UN sanction, it broke the sovereign borders of a state. And from his point of view, there's absolutely no difference between what NATO did in Kosovo and what Vladimir Putin did by seizing parts of eastern Ukraine, claiming he was protecting the indigenous Russian population.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, it was a huge, huge moment. I mean, Tony Blair hadn't been prime minister for that long. He actually, we had to work quite hard to persuade the Americans that this was in their national interest as well. Couldn't have been done without the Americans. And it was pretty brutal. It was brutal on both sides. And I think the reason why, maybe there was quite a lot of spikiness between me and him. When I was based at NATO, we used to just. Everything that came out from Vucic, we said, well, he was the head of the Miloevich lie machine because they were, you know, propagandizing the whole way. Very interesting to see. We had a lot of reaction to this interview, and we've just sort of boiled it down. So here I give you this sort of the crux of the listener feedback, Rory. Listeners appreciated the opportunity to hear an opposing perspective. And I thought on Orban, it was really interesting to hear that, to hear somebody who likes Orban and gave us reasons why some found value in listening to an articulated voice from the right. And that felt that we'd at least engage with that without our usual kind of sneering if it had been Boris Johnson or whoever. Quite a lot of people said they actually thought it was the best episode we've done, possibly for that reason. And the basic thing coming through was how important it is in a polarized world to try to understand people of different opinion, negative sentiment. And I think a lot of this came from inside Serbia. My friend, Nemanja Vidic. Do you know Nemanja Vidic?

[Rory Stewart]

Roy.

[Alastair Campbell]

Former footballer, Man United in Serbia. He sent me a message. I said, what do you think? And he said, I think he'd have liked it. You gave him a great platform.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, yeah. And I think the Serbian opposition, a bit like people who are opponents of Al Shara in Syria, are just like you are, total Puppets to the regime. You came in from the moment you arrived. Vucic's propaganda machine and his basically state controlled media used our presence to legitimize him, mock the west, boost his nationalist credentials and that we were puppets in his hand.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. And I think the reasons, and this is what's come through in the, in the feedback is they felt we didn't push him hard enough on democratic backsliding. The problem is with these interviews we. And he was generous with his time. But the problem with these interviews, if so he sort of. And he did something very clever, which, and I knew what he was doing, he basically said, I'll give you the judiciary. I'll give you the judiciary. Yeah, maybe on that we've not been great. Okay. But once you get into an argument about you control the media. No, I don't. Yes, you do. No, you don't. I just think it's so boring. The fact is he does control very large parts of the media.

[Rory Stewart]

There are two types of problem, aren't there? It's very, very difficult to be honest for an outsider coming in to Spain or Serbia to ever have the full detailed stuff that a Spanish opposition politician or Serbian opposition politician would have to construct these husbands. But the second thing is we have to make a choice, which is not an easy choice. If you go in in order to use it to prosecute the case that this guy is an authoritarian ruler, then it's a show where you and I are just telling our audience that we disapprove of Vucic. The second choice is to try to let these people speak for themselves and trust that the audience can take on board the fact that we don't approve of this guy. In fact, we think this guy is an extremely uncomfortable fact who is backsliding on democracy. Pro or ban, flirting with Trump, pushing back on media, a very difficult actor, but we're going to give him a voice. And also, I think, you know, with Vui, we're also gambling on something which is the guy has changed his position. So often the big game is going to be, as we talked about in the first half, can we get Serbia into the European Union? And what does that involve in terms of holding one's nose and saying, potentially this is a nationalist authoritarian, but the bigger strategic interest of Europe is going to be getting places like Serbia in and trying to convince someone like Vucic to come along.

[Alastair Campbell]

And at which point I think actually that would be the reason and it would give you the opportunity to get rid of the whole thing of unanimity, which is what gave Orban the power to block so much of what the European Union majority wanted to do. And a lot of people apparently got upset by the fact that I said at the interview, nice to see you, and he said, please come back to Belgrade more often. But again, I think that assumes that all you should do, he and I, having been literally enemies in a war situation, that assumes that you should hold onto that position forever. Now, I feel on Kosovo, he is holding onto the position for political reasons, which I understand. And we could have sat there all day and just said, well, hold on a minute. No, this resolution, that resolution, we'd have lost people. I think it is important. There are some limits. I mean, there are some people that I wouldn't want to give necessarily give a platform to. But let's just imagine we were interviewing Donald Trump right now. Donald Trump, his team would know pretty quickly what we think about him. Would we just want to expose him for what we think he is, or would we actually want to hear why he is like he is? I think we'd want to do a mix.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, the same would be true if you interviewed Nigel Farage or Kevin Badenock. I mean, presumably Farosh is worried about coming on the show because he doesn't think he's going to really give a chance to explain his views, which is not true.

[Alastair Campbell]

Which is not true. And if we did that, by the way, we'd get a lot of people attacking us, but it would be the right thing to do.

[Rory Stewart]

I also thought that vuicok.

[Alastair Campbell]

And by the way, can I just say, I think people are sick of these gotcha interviews. I just. I watched one the other day. What was it? Oh, it was Lewis Goodall. I think it's pretty good. But he was doing an interview with Darren Jones, Keir Starmer's chief secretary. It was unwatchable after a few minutes because. And Darren Jones handled it really well because he was quite humorous about it. But it's this whole gotcha thing. You're bad person. I'm a good person. I'm speaking on behalf of the public. It actually is populist. It's playing into the idea as opposed to with Vucic. You're an interesting person. You're a very complicated person. And we're going to try and find out a little bit more about who you are and what you're trying to do. And by the way, I thought his stuff on China was absolutely fascinating.

[Rory Stewart]

The final thing that I wanted to bring up, and there's so many other things I took Away from it. So I was there in Montenegro and in Kosovo, 99, 2000, as a British diplomat and moving back and forward with British soldiers. And I'm looking back on my 26 year old self. I must be honest that.

[Alastair Campbell]

Are you 26?

[Rory Stewart]

I was 26 then.

[Alastair Campbell]

He was 28.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. I must be honest that I hadn't thought about it for a long time. And to be reminded by Vucic of the very, very negative, deep sense, you know, we walked past a building that had been hit by the NATO bombs that still has graffiti on the side.

[Alastair Campbell]

That's the army. Kosovo, the army's returning.

[Rory Stewart]

Yep. Me desperately trying to remember some of the Serbot that the British government very kindly paid for me to learn. I'm trying to read these Cyrillic things. But the other thing that I think connects to the first half is this question of how they deal with Trump and they. I mean, Republika, Srpska, Albania, Bosnia, the rest of the. Without naming names too much, it is astonishing in that region what you pick up on. One of the leaders, it's claimed by somebody who knows a lot, gave $20 million to somebody who'd been part of Trump's first administration, believing the guy would get him into the Trump second administration and feels cheated and ripped off because the individual got a job in a different part of the Trump administration, didn't help him. Another one of the leaders has apparently handed over for all the mines in the territory that he controls and in return gets to swagger around in Mar a Lago. The stories about hotels everywhere, you know,

[Alastair Campbell]

this bit of being given the bomb site.

[Rory Stewart]

Absolutely, yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

That was the site that Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. Were trying to turn into a five star hotel.

[Rory Stewart]

It's really bizarre stuff, right? Suddenly Albanian coastal development is taking place with Trump allies. The Bosnians are now giving contracts to the brother of Flynn, who was the disgraced National Security advisor and Trump's lawyer, with a company that's never done any business, it's just got over a billion dollar contract to try to move gas lines through Bosnia.

[Alastair Campbell]

You're not doing the Balkan case for enlargement much good here, are you?

[Rory Stewart]

Donald J. Trump Jr. Suddenly turns up in Republika, Serpska of all places, which is this Serb nationalist enclave of Bosnia where he's suddenly doing business. So it's. And they're so frank about it. I mean, nowhere outside the Gulf have I heard countries talk so openly about the idea that essentially. And they're all spending money on lobbyists. I mean, eye watering about. And what Are these lobbyists? These lobbyists are basically people in Washington who claim that if you give them colossal sums of money, millions, millions of dollars, they will get you in, shake Trump's hand, go in for a meeting, get some concession. The case of Republica Srpska, all the sanctions were lifted. Is that or is that not connected to the fact that Trump's companies have suddenly got mining concessions and Donald J. Trump Jr. Is building hotels?

[Alastair Campbell]

No, I mean, look, the corruption. Scaramucci keeps saying this on the rest of his politics. US Corruption is off the scale and it's in plain sight. I mentioned last week the interview that Eric Trump did live on television about a multi million pound contract. He just landed at the Pentagon. Well, was he going to get. Is he really a kind of military expert? Does he really know about drone technology? Or could it be that he's Donald Trump's son?

[Rory Stewart]

So listen, and as with all corruption, my final thing that I thought is how angry they keep getting because they'll pay someone money and nothing will happen. And one of the problems with corruption is that you don't know who's lying to you, who actually has access, who doesn't. A lot of people, I think, in the Gulf are very, very angry with the United States at the moment because they feel they gave a huge amount of money and Trump isn't replying to their calls.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, yeah. And I think the hotel falling through. And there's the Culture Minister.

[Rory Stewart]

Tell us about the hotel falling through.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, so what's happened is that the hotel, this site, which is an extraordinary thing, it's been there ever since the war in 1999, and it's left with

[Rory Stewart]

the bomb damage and the way the

[Alastair Campbell]

Victoria bomb damage, it's all sort of, you know, the ground has not been repaired, the buildings are not repaired, the windows are all shattered and it's there as a reminder. And by the way, those reminders have been a very effective part of the propaganda that Vucic was continuing. Cause that's what makes think we were attacked. This was their army headquarters, we were attacked. We didn't attack anybody. And a lot of the younger kids now, they think that, because that's what they're told. So Kushner and Trump Jr. Wanted to turn this into a five star hotel and offices and whatever, but

[Rory Stewart]

it doesn't make any sense. Can I just interrupt saying it seems completely mad. Right. So you've got this enormous monument in the middle of your country to the war, with all its shrapnel damage and

[Alastair Campbell]

crime and all your businesses to Come

[Rory Stewart]

and rebuild it into a five star hotel.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. And an office block.

[Rory Stewart]

I mean, it seems kind of slightly weird. It would be like. I don't quite understand how I'm trying to find the analogy, but most analogies I come up with are too sick to be plausible. But if you've made your whole national identity around this wrecked, smashed up bit of, you know, I don't know what I mean. I'll tell you what it is that the Chinese come and demolish the Statue of Liberty and decide to produce to build the Chinese embassy on its site.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay.

[Rory Stewart]

And that's what it feels like to me.

[Alastair Campbell]

Listen, put it this way, the Nationalists did not like the idea of the aggressor coming along and building.

[Rory Stewart]

Hence my Statue of Liberty analogy.

[Alastair Campbell]

The other thing I would say though is that having been to Belgrade periodically, but you know, with quite long gaps between the visits, the city itself is transformed.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alastair Campbell]

And there would be something quite positive, I think, if they could get rid of that eyesore and say the war is now in the past, but they don't want the war to be in the past. And I also think the big point in European Union, they're never ever going to get into the European Union until they resolve the issue. And I didn't get any feeling from him that, well, I hope that's not

[Rory Stewart]

true because we want them in the European Union, they're not going to resolve the issue. So I think actually we need to return to a much more imaginative structures how we get countries into the European Union. Because if we get stuck with that, you will say Moldova can't come in because they haven't resolved the conversation with Transnistria. Ukraine can't come in because Crimea's are separate. Serbia can't come in because they can't recognize Kosovo. Bosnia can't come in because if we're actually to get them in, and I think the argument is we need to, warts and all, warts and all, then we need a bit of courage.

[Alastair Campbell]

And the reason why this matters so much at the moment is the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Koss, the woman that I went to Ukraine with. She's warned the six Western Balkan countries that are trying to get into the European Union that they are on the path to losing 700 million euros from the EU growth plan by the middle of this year if they don't step up on the reforms on which she says there is too much backsliding. Anyway, if you've missed this interview that we're talking about so much and has Been front page news for several days in Serbia and the whole episode played out on their news programs. Then just search leading wherever you get

[Rory Stewart]

your podcasts and do just again, go back through the back catalogue of leading. There are some amazing. Naz Shah, for example, who we interviewed, I thought was extraordinary. She is a Labor backbencher, which doesn't sound very exciting to people, but in fact, if you listen to the story, is the most moving story of female courage, resilience. I mean, she is that. That's one tough lady and that's an extraordinary story. So if you haven't listened to Naz Shah. Naz Shah, Sarah McBride, what did you think about Sarah McBride? Tell us about Sarah McBride.

[Alastair Campbell]

Love Sarah McBride.

[Rory Stewart]

Sarah McBride, transgender U.S. congresswoman talking incredibly calmly and openly about her experience. I know this will be offensive to some listeners. Please listen. I'd love to hear it.

[Alastair Campbell]

Or as well, I posted it recently as somebody said, oh, two white men talking to a white man.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, there we are. So anyway, if you're of that view, do listen to the interview and then come back to us and tell us what you honestly think.

[Alastair Campbell]

Okay. Right. Very briefly, and there's not much point lingering too long on this because we're recording this on Tuesday morning. There's going to be a vote in Parliament later on the day as to whether Keir Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee. Labour are defending it very, very robustly, saying the whole thing's a lot of nonsense and it's a deliberate stunt to try to equate him with Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, Philip Barton, former head of the Foreign Office, who one of my favourite diplomats ever. He was in our private office when, early in the Blair years. His nickname for me is Bartonobe, because, as you know. You may know, Rory, I've never congratulated anybody on receiving an honour because I don't believe in the honor system. But I've always called him Bartolo because

[Rory Stewart]

He got an OBE.

[Alastair Campbell]

He got his OBE while he was in number 10. And then at 11 o' clock we've got Morgan McSweeney. So that will doubtless be the first time that most members of the public have seen him or heard him.

[Rory Stewart]

And are you expecting great revelations or are they going to be rather sort of cautious?

[Alastair Campbell]

And I sort of feel Fiona keeps saying that she thinks this story has got to where Westland got in the third Thatcher era. Westland was this big scandal about the sale of a helicopter company to the us.

[Rory Stewart]

I mean, interestingly, Hesseltine.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, it was US v. Europe, wasn't it.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, yeah. Hesseltine, who got into that, is maybe an early precursor of this whole conversation that's dominated this whole podcast, which is, how do you think about being less dependent on the US and have more of a European thing? And Hesseltine was basically saying, we cannot have a situation where we are totally dependent on the United States for our helicopters. We need some strategic autonomy.

[Alastair Campbell]

His storming out of the Cabinet was one of the highlights. Highlights of my journalistic life anyway.

[Rory Stewart]

But what she said is that pretty soon people got confused by Western and couldn't remember.

[Alastair Campbell]

And also. So I think when I was. I actually ended up turning the radio off this morning because they were going, you know, somebody I'd never heard of who'd given written evidence was. Was it contradicted by the verbal evidence that was given last week? And I was kind of losing the will to live. And I just feel it's one of those frenzies. Keir Starmer's admitted he made a terrible mistake in the appointment. I'm not convinced that all this kind of ins and outs on the vetting process is going to go anywhere, so.

[Rory Stewart]

So you're not expecting great revelations?

[Alastair Campbell]

I'm not. Not. But, you know, famous last words. I think Philip Barton will have been pissed off at the process. I think Morgan Muswini will probably find it hard to say he wasn't pushing quite hard to get Peter Mandelson in place, come what may. But we shall see. And meanwhile, the local elections are limbering up and hardly anybody's talking about local election issues. One thing we do know is they're not going to be a pretty night for Labour.

[Rory Stewart]

Right. And the polling is pretty extraordinary. I mean, some of the polling we've seen, we've got reform leading Labour by 9%, 29 to 20 in the national polls. Even if that narrows, we've got, I think, 63% of the British public saying there's been little or no change under the Labour government. This is a polling done by Portland Portland PFO. Personal financial's gone from plus one to minus eight. Net sentiment on the economy down by 10. So public opinion's not in a happy place.

[Alastair Campbell]

No, it's really not. There's not much point is going deep into it today. I think we got into it pretty deep last week. Some of our listeners thought too deep, others thought, love it. Hearing Alastair say negative things about the Labour Party. Enjoyed that, but we'll doubtless come back to it. But famous last words. I think this is a storm that is blowing out.

[Rory Stewart]

We've done a romp around the world, but right at the center of this, there's this question of what on earth Britain does with the us, how Serbia deals with the us. And I think this is again and again coming back to the big long term issues of what kind of world we want to shape. And we will be returning to that, I think, a little bit in Question Time, where we're going to be talking about Palantir, a company that's been very much in the headlines recently. It's a big US tech company that now has a dominant position not just in the Ministry of Defence, but in things like the National Health Service. So we'll be talking about that, but we'll also be talking about the Foreign Office cutting its International Humanitarian Law department, which, you know, I would again link to this weird problem that Britain has of trying to work out what it's going to do in a post American world. You wanted to talk also about mental health.

[Alastair Campbell]

Want to talk about and grief? Yeah, maybe a little bit on grief. Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

[Rory Stewart]

Looking forward to it.

[Alastair Campbell]

Cool.

[Norman Smith]

Hello, it's Norman Peston from the Rest Is Money. I've just had the most gripping conversation with an economist, Nick Bloom from Stanford, who's published a very influential paper on the costs of leaving the European Union. His he and his colleagues calculated that leaving the EU has cost us 8% of our national income, our GDP, that's 240 billion more than we spend on the NHS every single year. What's really striking is that his numbers are now the numbers being used by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, when she talks about the advantages of getting closer to the eu. So if you, if you want to know how damaging Brexit has been and whether that 8% number is robust, whether it's real, join me for the latest episode of the Rest Is Money.