533. Andy Burnham's Big Gamble: Can He Beat Reform?

Summary

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The Rest Is Politics – Episode 533

Andy Burnham’s Big Gamble: Can He Beat Reform?

Date: May 14, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart

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Episode Overview

This emergency episode centers on the explosive developments within the UK Labour Party following disastrous local election results. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart dissect the looming leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with major focus on Andy Burnham, Mayor of Manchester, who’s mounting a bold—some say risky—bid for MP and Labour leader. The episode unpacks the implications, the party's internal machinations, and the potential scenarios facing Labour as it faces mounting pressure from both Reform and internal factions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Current Labour Party Crisis

• Backdrop: The Labour Party has suffered severe local election losses, igniting speculation and maneuvering for Keir Starmer's position.
• Resignations & Challenges: Wes Streeting, former Health Secretary, has resigned and thrown his hat in for leadership, openly citing loss of confidence in Starmer.
• Andy Burnham’s Entry: Andy Burnham seeks MP Joss Simons' soon-to-be-vacant Manchester seat to join the contest (“step forward on his behalf. A young MP by the name of Joss Simons... Andy Burnham says he wants to ask the National Executive to let him be a candidate.” – Alastair Campbell, 01:28).

2. Leadership Challenge Rules & Timelines

• Labour Rules Recap: A challenger needs backing from just over 80 MPs to trigger a contest. The vote then goes to party and affiliated members with an alternative vote system (Rory Stewart, 02:26).
• Burnham’s Route: Burnham must win a by-election—potentially tricky given the seat’s pro-Reform polling (Alastair Campbell, 04:47).

3. Risks, Scandals, and Political Calculus

• High-Risk Move: Burnham’s mayoral popularity doesn’t guarantee by-election victory—especially in a seat where Reform is heavily favored (Campbell, 04:47).
• Public Perception: There's “not much love for politicians who make way for other politicians” (Campbell, 04:47), and facilitating Burnham’s move could feed cynicism.
• Scandals: The seat's outgoing MP, Joss Simons, was entangled in a spying scandal—further complicating Labour's image.

4. Internal Factions and Potential Candidates

• Angela Rayner: Seen as “of the party” and potentially the most appealing to members. Her popularity may rebound after being cleared in a tax case.
• Other Runners: Names like Ed Miliband and Ali Khan are being floated. Discussion about the need for a woman on the shortlist ("big pressure to have a woman candidate" – Campbell, 06:45).

5. The Emotional & Strategic Reactions

• Campbell’s Take: Frustration over the timing and method—calls this “the worst possible image of the party to the country” and exposes damaging internal plotting (Campbell, 07:35 – 10:49).
• Starmer’s Position: Starmer is depicted as embattled, “driven by sheer anger,” feeling betrayed by colleagues (Campbell, 12:40).

6. Survival Prospects & Way Forward

• Starmer's Slim Odds: Even if Starmer survives the immediate threat, he'll face a hostile PLP—making effective leadership doubtful (Campbell, 11:14).
• Possible Paths: Should Starmer set a resignation timetable (like Theresa May), or dig in (like John Major)? Campbell leans toward the latter being Starmer’s current mindset out of anger (Campbell, 12:40).

7. Broader Party Dilemmas

• Party at a Crossroads: There’s real existential risk – “could end up like the Socialist Party in France” with both major parties shrinking and new ones rising (Stewart, 19:08).
• Difficult to Win Left Membership: Wes Streeting is seen as business-friendly/right-leaning; challenge lies in winning over Labour’s often more left-wing base (“Isn’t that the problem with Wes Streeting... it’s all very well that people like me love him, but how’s he going to get the votes of Labour members?” – Stewart, 19:08).

8. Leadership Contest Dynamics

• Streeting’s Pitch: Seen as “the candidate of the right.” There will likely be left and center candidates as well (Campbell, 16:32).
• Angela Rayner’s Resonance: Despite their skills, some, like Rayner, have much more “emotional resonance” with members (Stewart, 21:06).

9. “Secret Sauce” and Political Experience

• Can Burnham Win? If Burnham can win in Manchester (a Reform stronghold), he could emerge as the “winner” Labour desperately needs. Stewart floats the optimistic scenario of Burnham as PM with Starmer as Foreign Secretary (Stewart, 23:56; Campbell responds, 24:59).
• Historical Precedents: Other former PMs have transitioned to foreign roles (Stewart, 25:37).

10. Big Plea: Avoiding a Soap Opera

• Campbell’s Warning: The public hates a party obsessed with its own drama. “My big plea to all of them is...not to just make this a gigantic soap opera and never, ever, ever forget the watching general public.” (Campbell, 27:02).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Burnham’s Gamble:
  “This is from Andy Burnham’s perspective, very high risk... There is not much love for politicians who make way for other politicians who want to do something different.” – Alastair Campbell, 04:47

• Explaining Labour’s Leadership Rules:
  “If an MP gets enough MPs, just over 80 MPs, they can trigger a leadership challenge...the system was set up to block someone like Jeremy Corbyn.” – Rory Stewart, 02:26

• Campbell's Emotional Reaction:
  “My emotional reaction is—even if it’s the right thing to get Keir Starmer to step down... I am far from convinced that this is the right time or the right way to go about it.” – Alastair Campbell, 09:25

• On Starmer’s Dilemma:
  “His chances of surviving long term are a lot slimmer than they were…because the message that’s being put out there is an awful lot of, let’s imagine he survives. We now know there are literally dozens of MPs sitting there day after day...thinking, ‘I don’t want him there.’” – Alastair Campbell, 11:14

• On Public Disillusionment:
  “I’ve just been watching the way that Labour is being portrayed as being no better than the last lot. That’s lethal. And that plays completely into Farage’s hands...once the public starts to think this is what you’re in politics for… it’s lethal.” – Alastair Campbell, 17:12

• Stewart’s Optimistic Scenario:
  “Andy Burnham runs…wins. By winning, he proves that he has the secret sauce to defeat Reform…He brings in Keir Starmer as his Foreign Secretary…” – Rory Stewart, 23:56

• Campbell’s Final Plea:
  “Try very, very hard…not to just make this a gigantic soap opera and never, ever, ever forget the watching general public.” – Alastair Campbell, 27:02

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Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Summary | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:28 | Introductions & the Labour Leadership Crisis | Setting the scene of resignations and Burnham’s challenge | | 02:26 | Labour Party Leadership Rules Explained | Stewart’s explainer for local and foreign listeners | | 04:47 | Burnham’s Risky Route / By-Election Prospects | Campbell’s analysis of Burnham’s odds in Manchester | | 08:08 | Campbell’s Candid Reaction | Personal feelings and insider observations | | 11:14 | Starmer’s Prospects | Assessing the possibility of him surviving | | 12:40 | Should Starmer Resign or Fight? | Strategic options discussed | | 16:32 | Contest Dynamics: Left vs. Right | Who’s running and which factions they represent | | 19:08 | Existential Party Threats | Labour and Conservative futures in a fragmented landscape | | 21:06 | Emotional Resonance: Rayner v. Streeting | Analysis of candidate appeal with grassroots members | | 23:56 | Stewart’s “Burnham as Saviour” Scenario | A possible happy ending for Labour, with Burnham at its helm | | 27:02 | Campbell’s Plea: Avoid the Soap Opera | Closing thoughts to the party and public |

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Tone & Notable Dynamics

• Direct, Insider-Infused, Wryly Frustrated: Campbell oscillates between exasperated strategist and party loyalist, while Stewart steadies the discussion with a cross-partisan, slightly bemused rationality.
• Candid and Personal: Both hosts leverage direct conversations with insiders, adding candid, almost off-the-record layers to their analysis.
• Sense of Urgency: The episode is brisk, topical, and openly acknowledges the scene as being in flux, “emergency” in nature.

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Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal, dramatic moment in UK politics: Labour at a crossroads, with its leadership future wide open, its unity in doubt, and its new (and old) faces jostling to define the party’s next chapter. Campbell and Stewart balance acute skepticism, procedural insight, and a dash of hope for renewal—as Burnham’s big gamble unfolds.

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Transcript

[Alastair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

Welcome to the Rest Is Politics with

[Alastair Campbell]

me, Rory Stewart and me, Alastair Campbell, and we are talking about developments in the leadership of the Labour Party. We had the dreadful local election results recently since when there's been massive speculation about whether anybody might challenge Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party stepped forward this morning. Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, resigning from the Cabinet, saying in his letter of resignation that he no longer has the confidence in the Prime Minister and he wants a broad leaders debate to see who should follow him. And then this evening, step forward. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, lots of talk about which seat he might step into and step forward on his behalf. A young MP by the name of Joss Simons who has stepped down from a seat in the Manchester area. And Andy Burnham says he wants to ask the National Executive to let him be a candidate.

[Rory Stewart]

Let me try for foreign listeners just quickly, or any British listeners who like me, have been doing other work today and haven't following the ins and outs. Essentially, under the Labour Party rules, if an MP sitting MP gets enough MPs to back him, just over 80 MPs, they can trigger a leadership challenge to the sitting leader, who in this case is Keir Starmer. And then the rules are that it goes to an alternative voting system where the electorate voting are Labour Party members and affiliated members, which I guess means members of trade unions or certain types of members of trade unions. And if nobody clears 50% of the first round, the candidate's votes are redistributed until somebody emerges as the winner. And the system, I guess, was set up in order to try to balance two things. One is to make sure that the candidate was not such an outsider that no MPs were prepared to get behind them. So maybe that was sort of blocking the return of a Jeremy Corbyn who maybe they thought wouldn't have got the requisite 80 plus votes. And the second thing is, of course, giving a voice to the party. But that means that different MPs now challenging Starmer have advantages and disadvantages. Starmer has one big advantage if he wants to hang on, which is he can try to hold the MPs and stop them putting their names behind an alternative and we can talk about that. If he fails to do that, then I guess there will be insiders who may be better at mobilising the critical number of MPs, and then there may be somebody. And this is what I wanted to get you with. What if there's somebody like Angela Rayner who might be more appealing to the party and the country? And for someone like me from an outside, it seems to me she'd almost be a shoo in if it was just the Labour Party members voting. So that's where we are. And final thing I wanted to say before I came back to you is the timing on this is odd. We're doing an emergency podcast now because it's incredibly big news, because it feels like the Prime Minister is about to be challenged directly. But Andy Bernan's route in would be through a by election, and a by election would take four to six weeks to happen before he'd even get into Parliament. And he'd need to be in Parliament before he could run against Keir Starmer. I think, over to you.

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, what I'd say, Rory, is that your knowledge of the workings of the Labour Party has vastly improved in recent years due to your constantly listening to me banging on about it. Look, I think this is from Andy Burnham's perspective, very high risk. He's the Mayor of Manchester. He's a very popular mayor of Manchester. But there is not much love for politicians who make way for other politicians who want to do something different. I think it was Bruce Milan who became a Labor Commissioner and they thought, well, he's going off to Europe. People are going to be so proud of him. No, not really. So Josh Simons, a young mp, was a minister, resigned from the government because he got caught up in a scandal about the organization he used to be part of, Labour Together, which was allegedly spying on Sunday Times journalists. This is the seat that Andy Byrne is going to go for. The last MRP poll, they predicted for the next general election, whenever it happens, a 7,000 majority for reform. A graphic which Celine, our social media person, has put round today, the chances of winning this seat. Reform 82%. Labor 17%, conservatives 0%. So this is not a safe route in. Now, if you look at those local elections, there probably is no safe route in. I was talking to somebody earlier who was saying, actually probably the best thing to Andy would forget about Manchester and try and find a seat in London. That might be a little bit that even in London is not sort of absolutely guarantee. So he's got to get in, he's got to then get 80 nominations himself and then he can join West Streeting. Your point about Angela Rayner? I think that if Andy Burnham gets in, Angela Rayner may feel that that is her sort of politics properly being represented. I think that Angela Rayner, even though today she's been celebrating the fact that HMRC's been involved in this big tax scandal, HMRC have said that she's done nothing wrong, she's not been fined, the tax affairs have been sorted out, but prior to that, I'd say her stock was falling somewhat. This may be putting it back in, but I think as things stand, if it was just West Streeting in there, I think Keir Starrn would definitely stand. If it's West Reaching and Andy Burnham, I think he'll work out whether he's got a realistic chance of winning. But the other issue that might get thrown into the mix here is that I said this to you on the main episode last time we recorded Don't Rule the pressure that there will be to have a woman candidate on the shortlist. So. And then meantime, I know you're a huge admirer of Al Khan's. He's pretty relatively junior MP in terms of how long he's been in there, but he's a minister and he's been putting it around today, or people on his behalf, that if there is an open contest, he sees himself as being part of it as well. So it's wide open, it's incredibly confusing. And my sense at the moment of Keir Starmer is, is he's not going anywhere. So there's going to Be a big bruising contest at a time for the country when I just think it's giving the worst possible image of the party to the country right now and the country to the world.

[Rory Stewart]

Okay, well, let's just get into that for a second, then. So let's just develop that. What's your basic emotional reaction to this? As somebody who's a real. I mean, this has been your life for a very long time. What's the no holds barred, Alastair reaction? If you were talking to a friend or Fiona about what, what's going on? What have you been saying on the phone to people today?

[Alastair Campbell]

I'll tell you what I've been saying to people I think have an influence over Keir Starmer. I think that it probably was, looking back, a mistake to block Andy Burnham. Though I said at the time, it is a bit odd if you expect the leader to say, here's the door, come through the door. I know your goal is to knock me out. Come and try. Okay. Added to which, and I'm only speaking here secondhand, I've not spoken to Shabana Mahmood, but Shabana Mahmood is a very, very key figure on the National Executive. And I'm hearing that Shabana Mahmood is supporting the idea of Andy Burnham coming in. So I think that what maybe Keir Starmer could have done in the last 48 hours to have bought himself a bit of time. As I've been saying to you all week, let's just try and calm things down a bit. This is not a sensible mood in which to discuss these catastrophic election results. But what I think he could have done is said, look, it's perfectly obvious a lot of you don't like me. I think I've got a mandate for a term. I'm going to try and see that through. But I get that there's a lot of demand for change. It seems to me that if there is going to be change and this guy Andy Burnham that everybody seems to, a lot of people seem to like, he should be part of that. And we can see how we can do that without damaging the Manchester mayoralty. Because don't forget, Andy Burnham vacating the mayor's seat in Manchester means there has to be a violation for that. So my emotional reaction is, even if it's the right thing to get Keir Starmer to step down ahead of the next election, I am far from convinced that this is the right time or the right way to go about it. And you said when we talked about this, the Other day. Well, there's never a right time, there's never a right way and there's something in that. But this feels. I think it also underlines that there's been an awful lot of plotting going on. Well, there's always plotting in politics. You know that and I know that. But I think that you've just literally had the King's Speech yesterday. So that's the King's Speech that we're treating was part of designing health is a big part of it. And to have gone so quickly from what, yes, were terrible results without any real analysis other than, oh, well, let's change the leader. And I think changing the leader is easier to say that you should do it and do it than necessary to think through all the consequences until you've worked out who's going to take over.

[Rory Stewart]

I get you're really angry about this and that you feel that this was the wrong decision and it's going to make a real mess. I guess the brutal question is, firstly, is it actually possible for Keir Sama to survive now that Wes Treating and Andy Burnham are doing this? I mean, or are we just kind of. We are where we are. And however angry you are about it, Keir Sama's very unlikely to be around in three, six months time.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah. And by the way, let me say I'm not. You know, I've always tried to put the case for Keir Starmer because I think he gets so much sort of stuff thrown at him, but I've never pretended that I think he's the bee's knees as leader of the Labour Party or as Prime Minister. And the labor person in me genuinely wants this government to do well and would like to see Labour win the next election, if possible, because I think most governments need at least two terms to kind of make big change. So what I say about that is I think the. His chances of surviving long term are a lot slimmer than they were. There's no doubt about that, because the message that's being put out there is an awful lot of, let's imagine he survives. We now know that there are literally dozens of MPs sitting there day after day after day after day, thinking, I don't want him there. So even survival is a quite a tough place for Keir Starmer to be. So, you know, I think that his chances of surviving are pretty slim, to be honest.

[Rory Stewart]

What should he do then? Should he accept that and say, well, that probably does mean that he needs to set a timetable for his resignation, which is what Theresa May did in 2019? Or does he take the John Major view, which I guess was 1995, which is, I'll fight this out. And yes, there's a lot of people who don't like me, but I can win this and I can take them into the next election.

[Alastair Campbell]

I think that latter position is where he is in his mind right now. But I think a lot of that is driven just by sheer anger, feeling that, you know, why is this all being thrown at me now? The answer to that is that's what happens in modern politics. You know, as you know, I'm in Germany. There was literally an article in one of the broadsheet papers yesterday suggesting that Merz might have to call another general election after a year. Now, I don't think that's where they're going to go, but I think that in modern times, with politics as brutal as it is, populism, as viral as it is, social media as violent as it is, the sheer hatred that there is at high profile public figures in the public is very, very hard. I think he still thinks that he is better than any of the options that are being put forward. Certainly thinks that on foreign policy, and I know you and I have talked about this, I mean, it is a worry if somebody emerges who's literally had no experience of foreign policy, probably not given it that much thought, given how much, given how much on the Prime Minister's plate is foreign policy. Right now he's probably thinking that he's probably feeling very personally betrayed and hurt. He's probably feeling that Wes Reading is a snake, Josh Simons is a snake, Andy Burns, he's probably thinking all of that, but what he has to do, as well as the rest of them, when I say everybody needs to calm down, everyone needs to step back a bit, that includes him, really work it out.

[Rory Stewart]

Okay, so let's assume then that probably the writing is on the wall for Starmer. Maybe very unfair. And I'm actually speaking as somebody who comes from the Tory party. There's a lot of my former colleagues and people in the center of politics who are saying, be careful what you wish for. We could have done a lot worse than Keir Starmer. He might be a bit boring, but actually he and Rachel Reid's pretty steady. The economy's growing, the bond market's being a bit unfair, but actually there are things they failed to do, but they've not been dangerous. Damaging politicians. And it could get a lot worse. Certainly if you're from the Tory party, you would worry that Aunt Sharona would be much more left wing that the kind of things that people are talking about in terms of cutting welfare spending. Well, let's look at West Streeting's little manifesto or what seems to be his manifesto. He seems to say, vote for me, I'm going to cut welfare spending. I'm going to strengthen defence, I'm going to radically reform the nhs, I'm going to make life easier for businesses, I'm going to deregulate. So it very much sounds like a sort of more business friendly, free market version of Keir Starmer. And then Angela Rayner on the other side sounded in that large thing that she put out a few days ago to be staking out a much more left wing position. Is that right?

[Alastair Campbell]

Roughly, yeah. And it'd be interesting to see, for example, whether if the leadership contest does go ahead and Wade does have the numbers, whether he will feel that he has to somehow inoculate himself against the charges that are already been put out there. You've given the version on policy, but I saw one of the first things that happened yesterday when he left that 17 minute meeting with Keir Starmer was a graph that was put out from somebody on the left basically saying, these are all the people that Broadway's treating. I mean, he's going to get a lot of attack from the left. He will be seen as the candidate of the right. There will be a candidate of the left, be that Andy Burnham. Ed Miliband has made clear that if there isn't one, then he would be prepared to stand. And then Keir Starmer, I guess would, if he stood in those circumstances, would project himself as the candidate of the center.

[Rory Stewart]

One small thing that you just said, Ed Miliband might stand. And that again, for most listeners, I think will be absolutely staggeringly astonishing. I mean, this is the guy who managed to maneuver his way into being labor leader in 2010. From the point of view of you and me and many others, David Milibander's brother would have been a better choice. Took labor to defeat in 2015. Seemed, we thought, not really, whatever his merits are as a man, not quite to have the full capacity to be Labour leader. I mean, can Labour seriously be thinking of jumping back 16 years and trying Ed Miliband again?

[Alastair Campbell]

Well, I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm simply saying that I know that he is of a mindset that if they continue to block Andy Burnham and if none of the others manage to rise up to get sufficient support to take on Wes treating, then he would do it, in other words. The point I'm making is that he's been operating as if you like a guardian of the soft left, seeing west treating as not being of the soft left. So that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying he's going to be in this, but that underlines to me how much if we're not careful, because the other thing you talk about me being angry, I'm not angry about this, I'm just sort of frustrated really, because one of the things I think that I've been shocked at, we've seen this with some of the scandals, most notably the Peter Mandelson scandal, but also some of the so called smaller scandals is I've just been watching the way that labor is being portrayed as being no better than the last lot. That's lethal. And that plays completely into Farage's hands. And when you think about what people say about the last lot, well, inflation, stagflation, economy not growing, public services not rapidly improving the way that they wanted. You've got a sense that the Labour Party is now doing what people hated about the Tory Party, fighting all about themselves, all about the next leader, who's up, who's down, the stuff that, you know, I think most of the public hate. Now, if you're Andy Burnham, you're always treating, you think Keir Starm's got to go, it's part of politics. But once the public starts to think this is what you're in politics for, as opposed to you're trying to make my life better, it's lethal. And I really worry for the Labour Party that this, you know, no party has a divine right to exist.

[Rory Stewart]

So there's that there's a huge existential threat, which is it could end up like the Socialist Party in France or. I'm very worried about the direction Conservative Party's going. It's possible our two big parties could be in real trouble. We might be entering a five party system where they shrink and vanish. There's another thing I don't quite get. How is it possible for anyone on the right like Wes treating to win with Labour Party members? I mean, isn't that the same problem that I had running against Boris Johnson, which is Broadly speaking, in 2019, when I was running, the Tory Party wanted somebody on the right of Tory politics. And it was all very, well, people used to make a joke that I was the Tory Party leader that everybody wanted except for the Tory Party members. I mean, isn't that the problem with West Streeting it's all very well that people like me love him, but how's he going to get the votes, the Labour Party members, if he's running against Aannsha Rayner or Ed Miliband or. Or Andy Burnham?

[Alastair Campbell]

He'll be thinking a similar version of what you thought you thought. And, you know, if you think about, go back to your time in that challenge, you were coming from, almost from not a standing start, but you were in a way the least known of the main names going into that, and yet you did manage to break through. I think you'll be hoping that he can project himself in a way that people say, say what you like about him, that guy's a winner. That's what I think he will be trying to do and maybe portray the others as being all about the politics, as it were now. But, you know, the fact is he's been in politics all his life. He was, you know, we talked to him on leading not long ago, if I think I'm right in saying that. All of the people who are being mentioned, including Angela Rayner, who we've got on the podcast this week in our Gen Z series, all of the ones that have been talked about, we have interviewed our leading. But when we interviewed Wes treating, Did you have a sense then of where he was politically? Did you feel that the way that he's projected himself now is what you imagine him to be?

[Rory Stewart]

What I got on that was somebody who was a good talker. I was surprisingly relaxed, was interesting about his Christian faith and his background was very funny about his family background, was convincing, I thought, on the NHS and the kind of reforms he wanted to bring through in the nhs. But it's so difficult for an outsider to answer the question. I just had a Labour MP ring me and she just said, Angela is just much more popular with the party members. And then I had another MP who had both Wes treating and Angela Rayner up to their constituency and they were like, well, Wes reading did a great job. He speaks very well, but Angela, they just loved. She's just of them. There's just a kind of emotional resonance that Wes doesn't get any. If that's true, it slightly sounds as though he's lacking some kind of secret source.

[Alastair Campbell]

Yeah, he may do. I mean, I guess the last, you know, I mean, when Tony Blair stood for the Labour leadership, he was seen as the guy on the right, but he managed to keep quite a large section of the center and the left with him and he managed to kind of hold that together. And I Think the worst part of what's gone on. It's interesting, in Wes Treating's letter, he said this has to be about ideas, not petty factionalism. But I thought there were elements to the tone of that letter that were quite petty. I thought. I mean, even to start, the results are in and we thought he was going to talk about the local election results. He was all about, haven't I done a great job on the National Health Service? He's my team and my special advisors. And I thought you might have mentioned the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, in that they give that they're the ones who are deciding how much money you get kind of thing. So I think, look, my take on West Treating is that he's a very bright guy. He's got a lot about him. He's clearly very ambitious and he's clearly very. He's pretty tough and ruthless as well. We can see that from the way he's operating in the last few days. But I've said to you many, many times before, I think it's almost impossible to work out whether somebody who's been very good at, say, being the Health Secretary or mayor of Manchester, whatever it might be, and whether they can make that step up to a job where there are just so many more elements to it, and the truth is they might be able to. I'm not saying they can't and nor am I saying that I think Keir Starmer has been, you know, as good as you and I wanted him to be, or even expected him to be. But I still think, you know, I was talking to somebody in words on the foreign policy side of things today. It was, you know, they were saying they're really quite worried about not knowing in the next, you know, who in the next few weeks is going to be, whether Keir Starmer is going to be there or not. I think that's, you know, these are not. These are not issues to be trifled with.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, let me finish them with my final optimistic sales pitch to cheer you up as you go into your fancy dinner in Germany. Okay, so presumably the optimistic story is this one, which is that Adi Burnham runs. He runs in Josh Simon's constituency in Macafield. He wins. By winning, he proves that he has the secret sauce to defeat reform in what was supposed to be a pretty safe reform seat. Suddenly you've got man from the north, successful mayor who's proven that he can beat reform in an absolutely tough by election which they were throwing millions of pounds in. He comes in and it turns out that, and this is my optimistic story, that by being mayor, he's actually become a better politician than he was when he was in Westminster. He's learned a new style of talking, he communicates better, he's got bigger ideas. He brings in Keir Starmer as his Foreign Secretary because, my goodness, Starmer's got all the foreign track record and the defense stuff rebuilds. The government goes into an election, wins. How about that for you?

[Alastair Campbell]

It's good. I like that. I mean, the one thing I'd say about. I talked about Catherine west, who decided she might vote for Gestaba. I did. The did think that the one, you know, genuine interesting observation she made was, you know, everybody expect. Except Keir Starmer's done a good job on the foreign policy front. Make him Foreign Secretary now. Would Kia be so proud as not to be able to countenance that? I don't know. You see, in other governments, we look at the Norwegian government at the moment, you've got. You've got my friend Jonas, who's the Prime Minister, and you've got Stoltenberg, who's the Foreign Minister, who's a former Prime Minister. So it's not a. I think you've. I think you.

[Rory Stewart]

David Cameron. David Cameron, very recently, Alec. Alec Douglas Hume, Tory Prime Minister, has been willing to do it.

[Alastair Campbell]

Exactly. So I think you've cheered me up quite a lot there. I've got to say, Roy, you took the mickey out of my nice dinner. This we discussed. Fiona and I booked into this hotel and we discovered that on this site was the 2007 G8 summit. So Putin was here and Tony was here and Sar Sarkozy was here and Merkel was here. But the bloody WI fi has been an absolute nightmare. So, you know, Germany, Vorschprung durch technique, they've gone backwards, I would say, because I can't believe Vladimir Putin put up with choppy WI fi.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, thank you very much, Alistair. And we've just had confirmation, as we're recording, that Kir Sama said he won't block Andy Burnon. So we can assume that Andy Berman will now come forward and try to take the seat. So much more to cover. And I guess we'll be returning to this many, many times over the next few weeks, because I fear we're likely to have a new Labour leader in place by the summer.

[Alastair Campbell]

I think we're definitely going to have a contest and I think that's sensible that Keir Starmer said we can't block him twice. Be very interesting to see the extent to which. I mean, does Keir Starmer go and campaign for Andy Burnham in a by election?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, if I was Andy Berman, I'd be encouraging Keir Sama to stay as far away from my byelection as possible.

[Alastair Campbell]

Maybe, but my point is he'll get asked about the thing the whole time and I have to say, he's a great friend of mine and blah, blah, blah. I mean, my big plea to all of them is try very, very hard, insofar as you possibly can, not to just make this a gigantic soap opera and never, ever, ever forget the watching general public.

[Rory Stewart]

Good. All right, Alistair, have a great.

[Alastair Campbell]

See you soon.

[Rory Stewart]

Speak soon.

[Alastair Campbell]

Bye.

[Rory Stewart]

Bye.

[Alastair Campbell]

Thanks, Rory. Bye.

[Gordon Corera]

Why did we really go to war with Iraq?

[David McCloskey]

And did Saddam Hussein really have weapons of mass destruction?

[Gordon Corera]

I'm Gordon Carrera, national security journalist.

[David McCloskey]

And I'm David McCloskey, author and former CIA analyst. We are the hosts of the Rest his class. And in our latest series, we are telling the true story of one of history's biggest intelligence failures. Iraq WMD.

[Gordon Corera]

In 2003, the US and UK told the world that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. But they were wrong.

[David McCloskey]

This wasn't a simple lie. It was something far more complicated, far more interesting and far more dangerous.

[Gordon Corera]

Spies who believe their sources, politicians who wanted the public to believe in the threat, and a dictator who couldn't prove he'd already destroyed the weapons.

[David McCloskey]

In this series, we go deep inside the CIA and MI6, go into the rooms where decisions were made and look at the sources who fabricated the intelligence that took us to war.

[Gordon Corera]

The Iraq war reshaped the Middle east and permanently weakened public trust in governments and intelligence agencies. And its consequences are still playing out today.

[David McCloskey]

Plus, in a Declassified Club exclusive, we are joined by three people who were at the heart of the decision to go to war. Former head of MI6, Richard Dearlove, Tony Blair's former communications director, Alistair Campbell, and former acting head of the CIA, Michael Morell.

[Gordon Corera]

So get the full story by listening to the Rest is classified and subscribing to the Declassified Club. Wherever you get your podcasts,