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Alistair Campbell
Thanks for listening to the Rest Is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show Tickets, go to therestispolitics.com that's therestispolitics.com
Rory Stewart
at the moment, smart money is on Keir Starmer not being Prime Minister by the end of the year.
Alistair Campbell
It's very hard to see how Keir Starmer gets through this.
Rory Stewart
We have Wes Treaty resigning, one of the big contenders against Starmer, and then Andy Burnham, the very popular mayor of Greater Manchester, now trying to re enter parliament to run against Starmer.
Alistair Campbell
Keir Starmer, at the moment you must be going absolutely nuts. It's very hard to govern in these circumstances.
Rory Stewart
We see the two halves of the Labour Party revealed, the kind of contradiction the Labour Party's dealing with.
Alistair Campbell
My plea to all of them, please don't turn this into a soap opera. Well, fat chance of that. This episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy.
Rory Stewart
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Rory Stewart
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Alistair Campbell
Visit fuseenergy.com for full terms and conditions. Welcome to the rest of Politics with
Rory Stewart
me, Alistair Campbell and with me Rory Stewart.
Alistair Campbell
We are going to talk about the Labour government. We're going to talk about an upcoming by election. We're going to talk about the policy shenanigans that this upcoming by election have launched as Keir Starmer ponders from wherever he is at the moment. Not heard much over the weekend. And we're going to talk about Germany. You wanted me to report back on my trip to Germany and I'd also like to give a little shout out to Mr. Magyar for the way he is handling his early days in power in Hungary.
Rory Stewart
Brilliant. Let me start though with my big tabloid headline and the thing that really excited me about this race. So people who glance at the Sunday Times yesterday, we were recording this on Monday, would have seen it. Leading with Wes Streeting says that if he becomes Labour leader he will lead the country back into Europe. So he's somebody who, who's on record saying that he was pro customs Union and he's now saying that if he becomes a Labour leader he will put into the party manifesto for the next election rejoining the European Union. So now for the first time we have somebody with an outside chance of becoming Prime Minister, saying if he becomes Prime Minister, we're going to rejoin the European Union. Now lots of ifs. Is he going to make it? Is Andy Burnham going to make it? Is this going to make Andy Burnham have to sound more Eurosceptic? But just on the surface that's really big news.
Alistair Campbell
It is. And because it's in the context of Wes Treaty having resigned from the cabinet last week and said that he doesn't want Keir Starmer to carry on being Prime Minister. Andy Burnham having put his name in the frame to be the candidate in the Makerfield by election, which has been created by a former minister, Josh Simons, stepping down or also saying he thinks Keir Starmer shouldn't carry on. The context is more complicated even than just a leading Labour figure says let's rejoin the European Union and I'm going
Rory Stewart
to do this very boring thing for international listeners again and maybe to bring up to date British listeners who aren't following this minute by minute. So to remind people, Keir Starmer has got a pretty bad popularity in Britain, but he was elected with a big majority in Parliament, big majority and could have sat there for five years and everyone assumed that he was going to sit there for five years. But a very bad showing in the local elections where reform did well, that's the Nigel Farage right wing party and Labour did badly. Suddenly led to a situation where we have Wes Treating resigning who as you say is one of the big contenders against Starmer. He's the guy I'm talking about with the European Union and Andy Burnham, the very popular mayor of Greater Manchester, now trying to re enter Parliament to run against Star. And as we recorded, if people want to get into the depths of this, please listen to our last podcast where we get into this in depth. But essentially we're in a situation where it looks likely that if, and it's a big if, Andy Burnham manages to get into Parliament in this by election he will then run and have a chance of being Prime Minister by the autumn and Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister.
Alistair Campbell
So this morning I was listening to David Lammy, Deputy Prime Minister, and listening, I could feel his kind of exasperation because he's speaking on behalf of the government. He is also a leading figure in the Labour Party, explaining that he obviously wants Labour to win this upcoming by election, but can't answer, for obvious reasons, very simple questions about whether he agrees with something that Andy Burlam, who may be the candidate, was saying at the weekend.
Rory Stewart
So you've put your finger on one big paradox which I think's worth leaning into a little bit more, which is, yes, of course, Keir Starmer and David Lammy would like Labour to win the by election, but Labour winning the by election means bringing in Keir Starmer's biggest rival and almost certainly leads to Keir Starmer stepping down as Prime Minister and this man, Andy Bernard, taking over.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. So it's sort of crazy. And in addition to West Streeting, who, let's not remember just a week ago was part of the team that put together the King's Speech, came out and didn't just call for Britain going back into the European Union, a position which, by the way, I have long supported. But you have to kind of always focus on context. And the context here is very complicated because on the one hand, he's basically saying Keir Starmer's been too timid, there's been drift, there's been a lack of embracing big arguments. So he made it part of a much bigger attack. Andy Burnham, meanwhile, does an interview. I thought a very interesting choice of interviewer, which was Dan Hewitt of itv, who's actually. Whose expertise is housing and it's itv. He's not gone for BBC, he's not gone for sky, he's not doing Today program. He's a long interview.
Rory Stewart
Explain a little bit what that means. What might ITV mean? If you were putting something together, why would ITV be a bit different to those others?
Alistair Campbell
Well, because the normal, you know, the normal thing you probably expect. Let's do the first interview. You'd probably do. And it was. It was at the weekend, you'd probably say, well, let's sit down with the Sunday morning show with Laura Kung.
Rory Stewart
And is that because that has more listeners or has more Westminster listeners? What's the normal logic for? Why you.
Alistair Campbell
The normal logic for that, I think, is just historically, everybody always used to do David Frost.
Rory Stewart
Okay.
Alistair Campbell
I actually. But I thought was interesting to do it with Dan Hewitt, who has got this kind of reputation. I mean, most of our listeners won't necessarily know this, but he's got a reputation really serious about housing, really serious about inequality. And Andy, in this interview, talks about one of his big policy ideas. He leans very heavily into electoral reform. Another thing which isn't in the Labour Party manifesto. So he's basically saying, I want to stand for this. And his big message was, Westminster, Whitehall have failed. I've shown there's a different way of doing things in Manchester. I'm coming in to try to do the same in Westminster. Dan Hewitt kept pressing him on whether that meant he was going to challenge Keir Starmer. And he's just found a form of words to sort of go around that. So it's.
Rory Stewart
Why is he going around that thread? Because he's obviously trying to challenge Keir
Alistair Campbell
Starmer, because he doesn't. He wants to keep saying, I am just for the moment standing to be the mp.
Rory Stewart
But that's insane. I mean, nobody believes that at all, do they? I mean, literally nobody, Nobody, nobody on
Alistair Campbell
the planet believes that, you know, and including. And especially Keir Starmer.
Rory Stewart
Right.
Alistair Campbell
So on the one hand, he's sort of saying very different sort of politics, very this, very that, new politics, but it's quite old politics, not to answer a straight question, not to admit that this is why you're doing it. Yeah. So he's. He then found this other formulation. I want to take the arguments that I've made as high as I can, as high as I can go. So what you have now.
Rory Stewart
Can I just. Sorry, I'm just. Because what you're saying is so weird and will be difficult for people to understand. We are in an era where, like it or lump it, people like quite blunt, outspoken, frank type of politics, which,
Alistair Campbell
by the way, is what we're streeting was trying to do.
Rory Stewart
Right. So why can't Burnham say, obviously, I'm trying to get elected because I want to run to be Prime Minister, Because I think the problems that Manchester faces and the country faces are best dealt with by my becoming Prime Minister. And I think I'd be a good Prime Minister.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, I think. But then we're back to the point that I made when Andy Burnham first tried to get selected in Gordon and Denton, where I think if you were to say it as bluntly as that, people will think Keir Starmer's taking leave of his senses. If he says, well, come on in, then. So I. Look, this is what I mean, this is why I kept Saying last week, let's just step back a bit because this is going to create for the next week. What? Do you remember my final words on the podcast last week? My plea to all of them, please don't turn this into a soap opera. Well, fat chance of that. When you have literally. We've just about finished the podcast last week when I was in Germany and you were here and west treating comes out with a big attack on Keir Starmer and a big policy announcement on the European Union followed by same day, Andy Burnham doing a very different style. Not going for Keir Starmer, personally, I think that's what answers your question. Not going for Nigel Farage personally, not going for reform.
Rory Stewart
Right.
Alistair Campbell
And why that this is why some of Andy Burnham's people are now saying, well, we're streeting is an absolute bloody snake. He's done this deliberately.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
Because he knows that in the by election. Yeah. You know, in a constituency that voted very heavily leave, 64% leave, 64% leave and 50% of whose residents who voted, voted 50% reform in the recent elections, he doesn't necessarily want to go in all guns blazing, say let's get back in the European Union.
Rory Stewart
So in a very interesting way we see the two halves of the Labour Party revealed and the kind of contradiction the Labour Party's dealing with. Wes treating, making the big ideas, rejoining the European Union, which will be hugely appealing to many. Many, I suppose one bit of Labour vote. People like you, educated, city dwelling, professional, more liberal, really want to join the European Union. And then you've got another chunk of voters who I suppose we might think of as the traditional Red Wall voter, more of Labour's traditional patriotic working class base, particularly in the north of England, who went over to Boris Johnson in 2019 because they liked Brexit, they wanted to get Brexit done. And so we're in the situation in which Andy Burnham is saying, vote for me because I'm a figure from the north, I can re win those reform voters. I can win the seat that voted over 60% to leave the European Union. And we've got Wes reaching, saying the problems that Britain faces, all the problems that Britain faces almost are to do with much bigger things than Britain. You're not going to be able to actually fix Britain's productivity or our cost of energy or our security or any of these things without rejoining the European Union. And Andy Burnham is saying, hyperlocal, hyper local. I'm the guy who's gonna get your buses running. I'm gonna get the police back on the streets saying, I'm going to improve things and streeting, saying, you've got to lift your head and look at the bigger global policy issues. You're not going to be able to fix any of those things.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. And that is showing the tension between the two very different contests that they're engaged in, because Andy Byrne was fighting a by election in a northern working class constituency. That was when Tony Blair was around. Massive. We used to get huge majorities.
Rory Stewart
Ian McCartney was our MP, over 60% of the vote. 63%.
Alistair Campbell
He was more than that. The first, I think 70% at one point. And so he's fighting that contest and we're streeting, even though he's not yet. You know, there's not yet a contest formally. He's fighting the leadership election ahead of Andy Burnham being able to get there. Now, I've got to say, if you're Keir Starmer at the moment, you must be going absolutely nuts, because it's very hard to govern in these circumstances. He's the Prime Minister, he's still the Prime Minister and he's watching this without any real control over it. And so when I mentioned David Lammy's interview, you just feel his exasperation. How are we meant to deal with this situation?
Rory Stewart
One of the problems is that the tradition in government is that you shouldn't do anything too radical if you're just about a step down. So the civil servants, quite rightly, are extremely reluctant. And you would have found this when you took over in 97, in the last months. The major government, they don't really want them launching huge new things that the new government might undo. And a classic example here is John Healey was trying to announce an enormous new investment in British defence. And it's probably one of the most important issues in Britain. It'll be a huge amount of the British economy. If they go up to 3.5%. It has these massive implications for NATO, for Ukraine, for containing Putin. Can he do it? Not really. Because the real question that the treasury is going to be asking is not just who's the next Prime Minister, but who's the next Chancellor? And what does West Reading or Andy Burnham or Angela Rayner or Al Khans or another think about this thing.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. They all like to say, well, government can carry on the business of government carry on. A lot of it will. A lot of it will carry on. But you're taking several weeks out of the political calendar at a time when the reason why Labour did so badly in the Local elections was in part because the country is saying, we don't feel the country's working terribly well and we want you guys to fix it because that's what you said you'd do.
Rory Stewart
And remember, one of the things we've often criticized the last Conservative government for was the ludicrous number of ministerial reshuffles. So famously you would have 10 prison ministers, 11 junior defense ministers and so on and so forth. The first thing that will happen when the new Labour Prime Minister comes in, Andy Burnham, West Streeting, whoever it is, is there'll be an enormous reshuffle because they have to look after their supporters. Some people will remain in the cabinet. I don't know, let's say one of them may decide to move Shabana Mahmud from Home Secretary to Chancellor. But that's already a huge shift. And then at the junior level, they've got to look after the people who are with them. And they're going to be throwing out quite a lot of the people who were loyal to Kiya Sama. That happened, I guess, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown. Right. There was quite a lot of reshuffle when he took over.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. Very different when Gordon took over. Was it massive? Yeah, there was pretty big reshuffle. Yeah. But I look, I think that where I've kind of ended up on this and you could, you could feel my sort of getting very agitated last week. I think it's very hard. It's very hard to see how Keir Starmer gets through this because the debate has moved in a way already. Well, okay, here being what's he trying to do with the country to what these people want to do with the country.
Rory Stewart
Okay, so let's imagine I'm the whisperer to the Joe Biden side of Keir Starmer. Right. I would say it's very important for British governance and confidence and the bond market that you remain. And here we are. And thanks to West Streeting, raising Europe massively in the minds of the voters going into this Makefield election, Andy Burnham may well fail to get elected. Now, if Andy Burnham fails to get elected in this by election in a few weeks time, he's in real trouble.
Alistair Campbell
Real trouble, Andy.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. Andy Burnham's in real trouble if he can't get elected in that by election to come and say, oops, I failed to get elected in what used to be a very safe Labour seat in Northern England. Give me another one. Can someone else resign? I'll have another by election. Have another. Go to Gerdin. He's toast. Pretty much. It's difficult to recover from if he fails to get elected.
Alistair Campbell
Well, the only thing I'm saying there is he can remain as Mayor of Greater Manchester until he gets elected.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, he can remain.
Alistair Campbell
I think even he could even stay as an mp. What he couldn't do is be Prime Minister and Mayor of Manchester.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. But his credibility and his leadership race is massive.
Alistair Campbell
Takes a hit.
Rory Stewart
So Starmer might well think, well, what are the chances of burnham being elected? 50. 50. And if he doesn't get elected, maybe Starmer thinks, oh, I'll be fine. Wes treating's very unpopular now, much less popular than he was in November. November you saw data suggesting that Wes Streeting had maybe a third more support within the party than he's got now. He didn't manage to get his 81 MPs. So how about a Starmer view where he's sitting there with Morgan McSweeney and his mates saying, well, actually, maybe this could be okay. Maybe Andy Burnham doesn't come in and I remain as Prime Minister for the next two and a half years?
Alistair Campbell
Well, yeah, possible.
Rory Stewart
What is it? They chant Five more years.
Alistair Campbell
Well, he says he was dead. But the thing about. And also I must say, when Wes Streeting, on the day that Wes Streeting resigned and we had that whole sort of day of. Not chaos exactly, but nobody quite knew what was going to happen and what have you. There was a lot of anger around against Wes. A lot. And not just from Keir Starmelod.
Rory Stewart
This is a famous cliche that I remember when I was going through all these conservative leadership things.
Alistair Campbell
He who wills.
Rory Stewart
Exactly. There's this famous story that you don't want to be the person who's seen as bringing down the leader. That Michael Heseltine made that mistake. You don't wanna seem too ambitious that actually the smart money is being slightly dark horse. Now, the one person who managed to defy that was Boris Johnson, who was such an enormous brand he somehow got away with it. But it's certainly true that Gove's reputation was deeply, deeply damaged by the sense that he'd been too clever by half, too political, too disloyal. And so all the people like you who are like this is the last thing we need at the moment. All those leader writers who've been pumping out articles saying Britain used to be respected for its governance around the world and now we're a laughingstock. All those Tories who are saying this is ridiculous, we can't have another Prime Minister are blaming worst treating, aren't they
Alistair Campbell
a lot of them are. And I think that when you made a point about. I thought Andy Burnham's interview was actually quite effective in lots of ways. But I think a lot of real people will actually reach the conclusion that you reached, which is basically, hold on, why can't you just say yes? Because that's obviously what you're doing. But I just worry from the Labour Party's perspective that the debate is. You're already seeing it going off in directions that nobody really planned. And then the other thing that I've said to you many times before, that I really resent the way that people claim to speak for whole regions and whole chunks of the population. There was this Labour MP on the television, on the radio over the weekend who was really going for West Streeting, saying, you know, the last thing the country wants, Lisa Nandi saying, nobody in this country wants to reopen the debate on Brexit. It's just not true. Lots of people do, including in the
Rory Stewart
north of England, including possibly Lisa Nandi herself. It's very odd that she's. I mean, I like Lisa very much, but I seem to remember she was quite sympathetic on Europe back in the day.
Alistair Campbell
So what this guy, Jonathan Hinder, who's an MP up in East Lancashire, and he's saying, you know, if I went to my constituencies, then we're going to reopen the whole debate. Yeah. If you put it in those terms, they might say, well, that sounds a bit mad. If you said that this government is getting punished because we're not delivering on the things that we promised. And the first thing we promised was growth. And if we're serious about growth, we've got to reopen the debate about European Union.
Rory Stewart
Having made the case for Andy Burnham in our last recording, where I said, you know, there could be a great story where Andy Burnham wins, proves that he can take a reform seat, comes romping in, charismatic delivery guy. Let me make the case. Worst treating case worth reading is this, that actually there is a risk that everybody has become completely obsessed with reform voters. It's true of the Conservatives, it's true of Labour, and that's understandable reasons, because these are voters who have. Are better at turning out, and they're also voters who are in these marginal constituencies that everybody's focused on. But as a number of the people in the country, it's actually not that many people what you're talking about when we talk about the reform voter. Only one in five reform voters have university degrees. They tend to be older than the general population, whiter than the general population. 85% of Reform voters voted Tory in 2019, 85% voted Tory in 2019. They are an existential threat to Kemi Badenoch's Tory party because she's trying to occupy the same space. But if you're Labour, there's a completely different strategy, right? The completely different strategy is to say, british politics has changed. You no longer need to get 45% of the vote to win a majority. Keir Starmer's just proved that, actually, you could probably be the largest party with 28, 29% of the vote in the five party system. And there is a huge vote bank of progressive, educated, more diverse, younger, pro EU Remain voters. Worth reading. Was smart, allowed the Conservatives and Reform to duke it out, chasing the traditional reform voter. He has a huge space where he can get moderate Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens and excite a loss as a progressive Labour base. And I think he could lead Labour in. He could be the biggest party, he could make a good coalition. He could get us back in the European Union.
Alistair Campbell
There you go. God almighty, you're becoming a Labour Party spin doctor. You did the case for Burnham last week, you did the case for West Street. We'll get you on Al Khan's soon. I've got to say, I'll show you this little graphic which the main rory in my life dug it from somewhere. It's a graphic 10 years of elections in Wigan.
Rory Stewart
And this is relevant because Makerfield is Wigan. Where it's in the Wigan area, Correct?
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, the borough of Wigan. And what you'll see, Labour has been the biggest in all of them. Right. But the dark red are the three merit elections. So what that says is Andy Burnham pretty substantially outperforming the Labour Party at the time.
Rory Stewart
By a huge amount.
Alistair Campbell
By a big amount, yeah.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. So a lot is depending on that. And there's been a lot of reporting from Acrefield saying whatever the. The national figures are, he's genuinely popular. Many of them are using buses that they credit him with providing as mayor of Manchester. And it's not. Again, we talk a lot about reform voters. One of the things that comes across is that it's easy to talk about a reform voter or a white working class, older voter, but it's a very different story. If you're talking about those voters in Nigel Farage's seat. These are east of England coastal constituencies and what was happening in places like Norfolk where they were taking a lot of Tory votes away, that's very different from the story up in the north and even in The North. I think there are two different stories, aren't there? There's the difference between, I don't know, maybe a community like Easington Colliery, which is in a very, very extreme type of deprivation and economic challenge. And some are like Megfield, which is actually on the edge of rising prosperous areas like Manchester, where in fact, if you look at the data around unemployment benefits, it's not as deprived as some of the other areas of the country.
Alistair Campbell
Just to dig into the population of makerfield would be 105,000 people, 96% were born in the UK.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. Compared to about 85% of the national pitch rate. Yeah, correct.
Alistair Campbell
But it's often in communities which don't necessarily have huge immigrant population that feel most strongly about immigration as an issue. And one thing for sure, it's already started because west treating has put Brexit and possible re entry into the European Union centre stage in the Labour leadership debate. Andy Burnham, when he was asked, I think it was. I don't think he knew that west treating had done this. When he was asked by Dan Hewitt in the interview on itv, he said he played back his words, I hope in my lifetime to get back in the European Union. And his response to that was, I'm not advocating that in this by election. In other words, he knows that reform will really go for that. Now I actually think if the Labour Party had not since 2016 essentially conceded so much ground in this debate that actually that wouldn't be a bad place to be because the one thing one of Farage's. We've interviewed Rahm Emanuel on leading this week, the American possible contender for the Democratic nomination and he said, we asked him about him and the three presidents he'd worked for and he said, you know, everybody's strength is often their weakness and vice versa. I am convinced that if the Labour Party had over the last few years attacked Farage over his role in making every single person in this country weaker and poorer because of Brexit, we wouldn't be in the state that we're in now. But for Andy Burnham, that is a big risk to do at this time in this by election. So we're back to the point about the clash of those and we're back
Rory Stewart
to the point that all these parties, Labour and Conservative and Reform, are all fishing in the same pool. They're all trying to get the same pro Brexit, working class, older white vote. And that's partly because of the electoral mathematics. I guess if you were Bruce hall for Labour, where they have huge majorities in somewhere like London or central Manchester. There's not much point in them adding a couple of votes there because of our first past the post system. But it's very weird. It means that the whole of British politics is being distorted towards perhaps 20% of the population who are not very representative of the population as a whole, who are more conservative, more anti immigration, more anti eu. But the problem is that is exactly the battlefield that Burnham's chosen to fight by election.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. Well, Andy Burnham has achieved something today, which is a very rare thing. He's managed to get the Daily Star to lead on the Labour leadership election with Burnham calls to scrap var. What do you think of that, Rory?
Rory Stewart
Well, there we are. There we are. Listen, listen. This, this. And this is the controversial video football thing, right?
Alistair Campbell
The video football thing is exactly what it is. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Rory Stewart
Would you support getting rid of var?
Alistair Campbell
I think I probably would.
Rory Stewart
Is that because you're just a massive populist and that's just the thing to say if you want to get a tabloid.
Alistair Campbell
Should I tell you another? If Andy Burnham does win.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. You're just saying that to flatter the listeners. The VAR thing, do you really believe.
Alistair Campbell
No. You know the only time that the Daily Star.
Rory Stewart
What would David Dean say if he was.
Alistair Campbell
The only time that Daily. The Daily Star led on politics during the 2001 election campaign was Brittany backs Blair. So getting the Daily Star. They did the lettuce though, did they, with Liz. Trust. But let me give you another football fact, Rory. This is. This. This will absolutely get the geeks. Yeah. If Andy Burnham does become legal party and Prime Minister.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
It means the Two of the G7 leaders will be. Will support the same football team.
Rory Stewart
No.
Alistair Campbell
First time in history.
Rory Stewart
No. And who would they both support?
Alistair Campbell
Mark Carney and Andy Burnham are both huge Everton fans.
Rory Stewart
No.
Alistair Campbell
There we are.
Rory Stewart
Well, that's a big.
Alistair Campbell
David Moyes could be Chancellor of the Exchequer in no time at all.
Rory Stewart
It's amazing. Well, they. Look, this is terrific news. Listen, let's just to finish up and then we'll go into a break. So to wrap it up again, at the moment, smart money is on Keir Starmer not being Prime Minister by the end of the year. And probably, if Andy Burnham manages to leverage his popularity as Mayor of Manchester and not be torpedoed, he wins the by election and he's probably odds on, I guess, in the betting to be Prime Minister. But. There's a lot of buts there. And we have this very different, I think, rather interesting candidate in West Streeting who's pretty unpopular at the moment because he's wielded the knife and he's seen as a bit of a snake in the grass. But I'm really liking the shape of his policies. I think it's bold, I think it's radical. And thank goodness there's somebody in this era of nationalism and parochialism who's making the big structural arguments that we need for rejoining the European Union.
Alistair Campbell
I had a few exchanges yesterday with Gary Stevenson sitting, doing a bit of reading and research.
Rory Stewart
Got a bit cross me on YouTube recently. Me.
Alistair Campbell
Did he?
Rory Stewart
Yeah, yeah.
Alistair Campbell
Did he? Well, he got a bit cross with both of us on this latest one because I got several people sending me messages saying, have you seen Gary Stevenson's thing? He's had a bit of a go at you and Rory.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
And actually it wasn't that much ago. He basically just said we were sort of centrists. But also what he was saying, he. He did make some really, I thought, really interesting observations there. Weren't. He wasn't specifically talking about the issue of the byelection. He was talking about the rise, the far right and how to beat them and his big thing. And this is something which I think Andy Burnham was trying to do in his interview, talking about affordability, just as Mumdani won on affordability in New York. He was basically saying that the reason why mainstream parties like labor and the Tories keep losing and getting hammered is because the big, big, big thing for people is falling standards of living related to inequality. So there are loads of rich, rich, very rich people, but there's so much more poverty. But the other point he made, and this is where he sort of. He basically thinks that you and I talk to people like us.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
Okay. Now I don't. I've not seen the analysis of how many actual reform leaning people listen to us, but I. Where. I think he's got a point. And this is what Andy Burnham is definitely trying to do. This is why Andy Burnham was not. He was asked directly, do you understand why people vote reform?
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
And he said 100. Whereas, you know, I might be tempted to say, yeah, because they're blah, blah, blah.
Rory Stewart
Can I challenge for second note? It's absolutely true. I think if you look at all the data that a lot of people who are furious with Labour and Conservative and attempted to vote reform are motivated by the fact that cost of living is going up, wages have been stagnant since 2008, housing's difficult to afford, services are creaking. What they really are looking for is a government that's going to be pro business, cut their taxes, cut welfare spending, get the economy going. The voters sound as though they believe that there are market solutions to this. Not that they want Gary Stevenson to come in and redistribute and steal the money from the rich and give it to the poor.
Alistair Campbell
No, I guess he would say that in terms of the politics of this, that one of the reasons why Zach Polanski has made such an impact is because he has been pretty clear about wealth tax and so forth.
Rory Stewart
But that's not. I think it'd be interesting, I mean, how much of the vote that is. And I mean, we'll get onto that. That's a totally different vote, isn't it? There's a young Green Party voters.
Alistair Campbell
Another couple of points he made.
Rory Stewart
I don't know. There's very few of them in Makerfield.
Alistair Campbell
And also the other thing, you've got this debate going on in Mayfield. The Greens are going to stand to catch candidate was Caroline Lucas.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
Former leader of the Greens. She was actually advocating for the Greens not to stand, assuming that those who might be tempted to vote Green would actually vote for Burnham and stop the far right. But the other. Just a couple of other points that Gary Stevens made that I thought worth thinking about. The first was he had this line where he said we've got to stop the beef between the left and the center. And I. Yeah, he said he's got to stop it left. We. No, but I tell you what, I actually reminded me me of how we did actually try to sort of build new labor, which was, yes, we're appealing to the center, but we don't want to lose. We don't want to lose people that.
Rory Stewart
You don't want to rub the left's face.
Alistair Campbell
Correct.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
So. And I think this is something. And he actually said the center needs the left and the left needs the center.
Rory Stewart
Okay.
Alistair Campbell
And that is true. And I think that. And then he's the final point. He made 10, nine pretty big points. The other one where he absolutely is right. He was an hour long. Well, I did watch. He was interesting. It was interesting. He mentioned us about four times. None of them very flattering, but let's just park that. It doesn't matter. But the other thing he said and he's absolutely right about this incident.
Rory Stewart
He wrote a very good book. Wrote a very, very good book.
Alistair Campbell
He did write a good book. You had your name on the COVID Yeah. You even read it. Names on covers. It's not always the case.
Rory Stewart
Very good Writer.
Alistair Campbell
He's a good writer.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
Rory trying to get back in with Gary Stevenson. But the other point he made was that this isn't just in the uk, but around the world. And this is true. And I saw this in Germany, which we'll talk about after the break. The right wing parties, these populist right wing parties are so much better at social media than. And I've been watching, looking at Andy Burnham stuff, and it's fine, it's fine. But it's on a different level. What the right do is on a different level. And the other thing he talked about was funding. He was making the point that when these sort of upstart right wing influence startup, they suddenly get money getting given big donations to build them up and then suddenly they end up on Joe Rogan because there's this international network. And so I thought there was a lot in there that the Labour Party needs to get its head around because the truth is on social media, both of the two main. The two main parties, Labour and the Tories, they're still, to my mind, pretty lame. You know, I'm lame because it's not my thing. Right. I'd like to think the podcast is better thanks to the team that we have doing it. But that is so the point he was making to me. He actually said, he said, you, me, you're like a general sitting above and you sort of think you're ordering troops. But. But out there, the troops are all fighting in a different way. They're not reading, they're not listening to the BBC, they're not listening to newspapers, they're sharing anger, making videos about Muslims and they're all. That's why rich people. And rich people. Exactly. So I do think that we've. And my argument to him is I don't want to get into the same means of fighting for the lying and the disinformation, all the other stuff. And bear in mind Farage is going to chuck so much money at this violation and they've got a lot of money to chuck. But I just thought you should watch his. He did it yesterday. Came out yesterday. It was interesting. Good.
Rory Stewart
Okay, will do. Let's take a quick break and then back for more. Welcome back to the rest of the politics.
Alistair Campbell
Me, Rory Stewart, and me, Alistair Campbell.
Rory Stewart
Now, Alistair, I would love to hear what you picked up in Germany. You've been in Germany for the last week or so. Yeah, yeah, gone. So German politics, really interesting. How's Metz doing? How's the greatest economy in Europe doing? How's the FD doing? Are we going to be able to have the middle powers led by Germany recreating the global order? How's Germany Trump relations going?
Alistair Campbell
Germany, if people can remember those questions in order, badly, badly too well. And I don't think so. Okay, so Metz is doing very badly. His ratings are now just absolutely tanking. We went up, up to the very, very north. In fact, it's rather starting to arrive at the hotel. This gigantic portrait of Angela Merkel right
Rory Stewart
up on the Baltic coast in, in former East Germany.
Alistair Campbell
Former East Germany in Mecklenburg for Pomeran.
Rory Stewart
Right.
Alistair Campbell
Is the, is the, the land of the state.
Rory Stewart
And am I right this is like AFD territory.
Alistair Campbell
Well, interestingly, Mecklenburg for Pomeran and below us, Saxony Anhalt.
Rory Stewart
Right.
Alistair Campbell
Okay. These two states, the reason why I was particularly interested to go, to go, go into this area, they are the two states that have elections in September.
Rory Stewart
Okay.
Alistair Campbell
And as things stand, the FDA are going to do well. Okay, how does it look? Well, so if you start in Saxony Anhalt, the current minister president was their kind of prime minister is called Sven, Sven Schulze. And he only took over in January because his predecessor was in real political difficulty. So he stepped down to improve there in their prospects in the result in the last election was 2021. The Christian Democrats Bazaar's party got 37.1%. The AfD got 20.8. But that which was a. Which was down from their previous vote. And then the link got 11 and the Social Democrats got eight. So the Social Democrats not very big there. Latest poll last week, AFD 41.4, CDU 24.9, linker 12, SPD 6. So that's Saxon Saxony adult.
Rory Stewart
Okay. Just to explain again to people, remind people FDA strong links to fascism. Real question about whether the German Constitutional Court should actually be certainly launching investigations into some of the AfD leadership. And if they win this Lande, if they win the state, they actually will end up with a president there who is in charge of the police, who's in charge of a lot of local operators. Very, very disturbing if you end up with them actually having proper executive power.
Alistair Campbell
And this guy is called Siegmund, Ulrich Ziemund and his. This is the AFT candidate and his manifesto was as out there as it gets and big on what they call remigration.
Rory Stewart
Right. And remigration again to remind people this is an idea that's beginning to get into British politics. And the idea is that effectively lots of people who live in your country are booted out. So reform is talking about millions of people. So not Just people who are asylum seekers, but people who lack indefinite leave to remain. But some of the AFD adjacent figures are talking about, even about German citizens with German citizenship being removed from the country and largely Muslims.
Alistair Campbell
And just to give you a flavor of the rhetoric, this is what he said at the launch. Let's take back our country. In other words, it relates to take back control, make America great again, et cetera. Big clampdown on immigration, as you say, huge support for large families. And a family means a man and a woman and lots of children pushing back on all sides of that. The stuff that really worried me, there's one of the slogans that they, that they run is we have to stop recognizing Ukrainians as war refugees. They are broadly pro Russian. It was interesting how I watched a documentary while I was there about why they were doing so well in this area. Quite a lot of people, elderly people in particular, saying, you know, why are we giving all this money to Ukraine when we've got so many of our problems here?
Rory Stewart
So to what extent is this similar to reform voters and to what extent it's different? Similarity, I guess they both are very, very focused on the question of immigration and control of immigration. Different is that this isn't connected as it would be in Britain with Brexit, instead of which it's connected with the strange relationship between East Germany and West Germany. And is there a sort of different feeling to this area of Germany to what you'd expect to see in a classic reform voting part of Britain? Does it feel different?
Alistair Campbell
It does, yeah. I mean, you know, we were driving around and the place I said to Fiona, one point that we were going through all these kind of quite small towns and villages, they all feel very clean. Whereas a lot of the, you know, this, the left behind communicators in Britain, they always feel very.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
You know, I didn't see the whole shuttered up shops phenomenon that you have here.
Rory Stewart
Yeah. So you wouldn't necessarily have complaints that public services are collapsing, high streets are shutting.
Alistair Campbell
No, not in the same way. Not in the same way. And the other thing I've got to say, particularly in Mecklenburg for Pomeran, apart from one waiter in one restaurant, we didn't see a single non white face. And yet this is the place where. So at the last election in Mecklenburg for Pomeran.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
This is Merkel's constituency, populations smaller than Saxony and out is about 1.6 million or something. The last election. The governing coalition in 2021, before the election was Social Democrat CDU. Yep. After this election. Yep. After the 2020 election, the Social Democrats got 40% and they went into coalition with Dlinka left party. Okay, you look now and the AfD, which got roughly 17% I think last time, they've more than doubled it.
Rory Stewart
Okay.
Alistair Campbell
So they're now ahead.
Rory Stewart
So one of the themes that we're seeing, and maybe this is a good transition to Hungary, is party loyalty is collapsing all the way across Europe. So France, Germany, increasingly Britain. The fact that your parents, grandparents voted for a particular party doesn't seem to make any difference between one election and another vote. Shares can double, you know, millions more people vote. The other thing that though, that you're picking up, particularly in Saxony Anhalt, is that is the sense it's a very, very strong right wing vote. And that's an interesting thing as we move to Hungary because there too the left is getting very, very little vote, even if there's a split between the far right and the right.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. And then of course the other thing this gives rise to. So let's just say for example, this guy Siegmund in Saxony Anhalt, let's just say he does get over 40%. The angst that is running through the main parties at the moment is whether they can keep to this thing about the so called Brandt Mauer.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
The firewall, which none of the other parties will go into government.
Rory Stewart
And to be fair, Metz is holding that line, but there will be people in his party, which is, you know, the equivalent of Cami Bay Knox Conservatives, who will be thinking, no, no, no, no, we need to, to go into coalition.
Alistair Campbell
Not least because, for example, in Thuringia, another of the German lender, the cdu, are in coalition with the Bundesara Wagner connect, which is the far left breakaway, far less.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Alistair Campbell
So it's like, I mean, I suppose it's like. Yeah. Is it? It'd be like Kemi Badenot going into her party, going into coalition with Jeremy Corbyn.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Alistair Campbell
In your party.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. The new Jeremy Corbyn.
Alistair Campbell
The new Jeremy Corbyn away from the Labour Party, to the left of the Labour Party. So, so that's sort of getting up there. So it was, look, on the one hand we were swimming in beautiful water, we were seeing lots of nice, happy looking German people having lots of interesting conversations. But the politics are, I would argue, in a really bad state. And Merz, he's starting to look really kind of troubled by it. He's got this thing of answering questions very directly, which you and I both support. But you do have to be a bit careful. So basically, he's just about got over the row with, with Trump about saying, you know, you completely screwed up in Iran. He was asked whether he would advise his children to go to America and he said, no, not at the moment, not with everything that's going on there. So that sort of made big headlines in America.
Rory Stewart
Final thing before we go into Hungary. One of the things that's so troubling about your German story is that often if you were Gary Stevenson or someone, you would say the reason why people are voting for the far right is cost of living, austerity, creaking services, rubbish NHS roads not working, councils not working, everything being ground down. But Germany is a lot better than Britain on a lot of those syndicates. Not perfect. I mean, Germans listening to this will grumble, but it would take a hell of an effort for any Labour government to get the standard of public services, street cleaning, local services, up to German levels. And even when you get up to German levels, 40% of people evading for the AfD.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. One of the things I argued with Gary Stevenson about yesterday because he was saying that the right wing parties are the only ones who are giving people a clear answer to how they're dealing with living standards. And I said to him, hold on
Rory Stewart
a minute, what is that?
Alistair Campbell
Well, he said, you're you. People like you and me.
Rory Stewart
Yeah.
Alistair Campbell
You think parties have to come, opposition parties have to come up with thought through policies. They don't. They just want people to think, because this law haven't dealt with immigration, the economy's screwed.
Rory Stewart
Right.
Alistair Campbell
So he's basically saying it's not that they've got policy, but they've got an argument, which in this new media landscape is proving to be very, very powerful. So, but I'm going to, with the benefit of having now been back a few days, I'm going to write a piece for our newsletter about the German situation because it is fascinating and if you want to sign up for that, go to the episode link in the description below.
Rory Stewart
And the newsletter actually is. Is definitely, if you haven't signed up, definitely will worth signing up for. Getting a lot of high quality journalism out of Alistair. But we're also actually getting some amazing commission pieces by independent journalists. It's becoming quite an interesting magazine and
Alistair Campbell
Izzy, our newsletter staffer, I think we call her, is churning it out. Excellent.
Rory Stewart
That's a great, great, great thing. Final thing. Hungry.
Alistair Campbell
I just think it's interesting. I mean, I mean, I saw, I sent you a couple of videos there's Orban in power for forever. And one of the issues that led to him being brought down was the issue of corruption and cronyism and oligarchism and Magyar who's taken over. He's putting out these fascinating social media posts where he's basically just taking people, including the media, with him on a tour of the government infrastructure that Orban built. So, for example, going around offices with these incredibly valuable paintings, which ought to be in the National Gallery, that are suddenly pitched up in Orban's residence or his office, taking them to showing them Orban's house and saying how, you know, I know what the salary is because that's the salary I'm on now. So how has he got all this? He's also said that Orban changed the arrangement so that when he, if and when he lost office, he would get a very big payoff. And Maggiar has said, no, you're not getting that. I'm going to give it to Ukraine. So he's sort of. Now you could say, well, that's a pretty populist move as well. But I think what he's doing is signaling as hard as he can, particularly to the European Union. I am very, very different. The European flag was flying from the Parliament the other day because they need the money, that Orban's moves meant it was locked up.
Rory Stewart
And I guess that the signal for West Streeting or Andy Burnham might be that put the European flag on the building and go after reform on corruption, go after them on funding, corruption, expense. That's the thing you have to keep pounding. Without sounding too much like Gary Stevenson, I would say that the key argument to make here is these are people who present themselves as speaking for the real people against the corrupt, out of touch plutocratic elite. And boy, the whole thing is crazy. Rolling in millions and millions of pounds coming in from crypto donors from Thailand, whole series of people who've made their money in business deals around the world in ways that are pretty difficult to track. I mean, take, take your came around and film some of Nigel Farage's five houses.
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, no, because this 5 million thing, we still haven't got to the bottom of it. He's changing his story every five minutes. By the way, Rory, I think I'm right. We've got through a whole episode without mentioning the word.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, well, we haven't. Don't try. But there might be a bit of a clue on how you might go after him too, because I'm not mentioning the ballroom on which. Which let's finish for the day. Do come back. Listen tomorrow to Question Time, where we've got some great questions which will allow us to do a deep dive on U.S. china, on Russia, on Ebola, international aid and the far right. Lot of things to cover tomorrow.
Title: Is Wes Streeting Trying to Sabotage Andy Burnham?
Date: May 19, 2026
Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
This episode dives deep into the Labour Party’s highly volatile leadership struggle: Wes Streeting’s resignation and bold pro-Remain pitch, Andy Burnham’s bid to re-enter Westminster (and potential leadership challenge), and Keir Starmer’s embattled position. Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell disentangle the personalities, policy clashes, and electoral realities reshaping British (and European) politics.
(02:07–12:15)
(12:15–17:32)
(10:38–22:30)
(15:26–17:34)
(13:17–14:39; 18:02–19:51)
(34:14–43:28)
(28:44–34:03)
(44:09–46:17)
On Burnham’s Motivations:
“He wants to keep saying, I am just for the moment standing to be the MP... but that's insane. I mean, nobody believes that at all, do they?”
— Rory Stewart (08:12)
On Streeting’s EU Stance:
“He's basically saying Keir Starmer's been too timid, there's been drift, there's been a lack of embracing big arguments.”
— Alastair Campbell (05:59)
On British Political Chaos:
“If you're Keir Starmer at the moment, you must be going absolutely nuts, because it's very hard to govern in these circumstances.”
— Alastair Campbell (12:35)
On Populist Media Warfare:
“Right wing parties are so much better at social media... the main parties, Labour and the Tories, they're still pretty lame.”
— Alastair Campbell (32:20)
On the ‘Snake’ Narrative:
“Some of Andy Burnham's people are now saying, well, Wes Streeting is an absolute bloody snake. He's done this deliberately.”
— Alastair Campbell (10:13)
Soap Opera Warning:
“My plea to all of them, please don't turn this into a soap opera. Well, fat chance of that.”
— Alastair Campbell (04:44)
Conversation is witty, acerbic, and at times exasperated, with insider banter (“snake!” “soap opera!”) and consistent emphasis on exposing political contradictions. Analysis is both sober and engagingly informal.