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- [00:01]
Alistair Campbell
Labour have won the crucial by election in Makerfield and they have won it big. Nearly 25,000 votes for Andy Burnham, 55% of all ballots cast. These are normally words that would delight the leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. But it was, in effect, Andy Burnham's application to the Labour Party to oust Keir Starmer and put him into Downing street instead. So does this thumping victory, won in an area where reform battered Labour in the local elections in May, spell the end of the Starmer premiership? How has it come to this? And what happens next? Also, what does the big win for the Tories in Aberdeen south against the SNP mean for the UK and Scottish government's policies on energy? It was quite a night in British politics. This episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy.
- [00:55]
Rory Stewart
Now, moving home has a way of revealing a mountain of background tasks and endless to do lists. That's dealing with the boxes, the broadband, the change of address forms and the discovery that you own far too many mugs.
- [01:07]
Alistair Campbell
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Rory Stewart
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Alistair Campbell
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Rory Stewart
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- [01:46]
Alistair Campbell
fuseenergy.com for full terms and conditions.
- [01:55]
Rory Stewart
This episode is brought to you by NordVPN. Now, we both travel an extraordinary amount with work, and in our line of business, it's hard to fully switch off
- [02:02]
Alistair Campbell
because news and politics tend not to take a summer recess. But keeping up with Westminster when abroad means constantly logging in to all manner of dodgy airport and cafe wi fi networks.
- [02:15]
Rory Stewart
Don't we know about it? That's the problem leaves personal data completely vulnerable to hackers. And that's where NORDVPN comes in. It encrypts your connection, keeps your data private wherever you are.
- [02:25]
Alistair Campbell
And the big thing is being able to switch virtual location back to the uk. It means you can access all your usual apps and content and not miss out on anything while you're away.
- [02:34]
Rory Stewart
Plus it automatically connects to the nearest server so you aren't Stuck with sluggish Internet, it really is the ultimate travel tool, even for those who actually try to relax on holiday.
- [02:45]
Alistair Campbell
To get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com restispolitics the link is in the episode description. I sold my car in Carvana last night.
- [02:55]
Gary Lineker
Well, that's cool.
- [02:56]
Alistair Campbell
No, you don't understand.
- [02:57]
Rory Stewart
It went perfectly.
- [02:58]
Alistair Campbell
Real offer down to the penny. They're picking it up tomorrow.
- [03:01]
Rory Stewart
Nothing went wr.
- [03:02]
Advertisement Voice
So what's the problem?
- [03:03]
Rory Stewart
That is the problem. Nothing in my life goes as smoothly.
- [03:06]
Alistair Campbell
I'm waiting for the catch.
- [03:07]
Advertisement Voice
Maybe there's no catch.
- [03:08]
Rory Stewart
That's exactly what a catch would want me to think.
- [03:11]
Alistair Campbell
Wow.
- [03:11]
Advertisement Voice
You need to relax.
- [03:12]
Alistair Campbell
I need to knock on wood. Do we have. What is this table wood?
- [03:15]
Advertisement Voice
I think it's laminate.
- [03:16]
Rory Stewart
Okay.
- [03:16]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, that's good.
- [03:17]
Rory Stewart
That's close enough.
- [03:17]
Advertisement Voice
Car selling without a catch. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pick up fees may apply.
- [03:31]
Rory Stewart
Welcome to the rest is politics. Me, Rory Stewart.
- [03:34]
Alistair Campbell
And me, Alistair Campbell. So, Rory, Andy Burnham has won and he has won big.
- [03:40]
Rory Stewart
Amazing. So, just to put it in context, this is the by election in Makerfield and this was prime reform territory. So two thirds of voters in this constituency had voted for Brexit. And in the local elections very recently, just a few weeks ago, Labour were 20 points behind Reform. So Reform could have won this seat comfortably. But Andy Burnham has won this with a 20 point lead. He's increased his party vote share by 10. And this is something right against the national trend. So as you, I'm sure, are going to get onto Aberdeen south, as you mentioned, is now Labour went down 19 points and it went down 18 points in Arborist, but it went 10 points up in this constituency with Andy Burnham and he basically wipes out the Greens, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. The Greens. Lib Dems got about 1%, conservatives got about 2%. And even restore and Reform together wouldn't have been enough to beat him. So it's looking very, very strong. There are some caveats around the corner, but pretty strong. Back over to you.
- [04:49]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, I think a lot of the. When you Talk about the two Scottish byelections which were caused by former Westminster MPs winning seats in the Holyrood Parliament in the recent Scottish elections. I think a lot of tactical voting going on there and a lot of tactical voting to stop reform in Makerfield. But listen, I was talking to people in the campaign last night and even late on, they were very confident Andy Burnham was going to win, but they were Worried that a win might be tainted if restore votes. The far, far right party ate into reform, the just very right wing populist party, and that became a deciding factor. But it wasn't needed because as you say, 55% of the VOT meant they didn't get near checking a few historical footloads. Rory, you've got to go back to the time when I was one year old. Torrington 1958, Mark Bonham Carter one for the Liberals. For a bigger differential turnout from a general election to a by election.
- [05:45]
Rory Stewart
What does a differential turnout mean? Sorry?
- [05:47]
Alistair Campbell
The increase in the vote in a by election as opposed to the parliamentary election is normally lower. In a by election, this is considerably higher. So he's driven out people who didn't vote last time round. And then to go back for a rise in the actual numbers for a by election candidate standing for the party of government, going up on this scale, you've got to go back to labour. Kevin McNamara Hull 1966. A year more remembered for football rather than politics.
- [06:17]
Rory Stewart
The two things you're saying there is that apart from the actual results, the two norms in a by election are usually, or sometimes fewer people turn out than turn out for a general election. And usually in by elections there's a tendency to vote against the party of government. It's often a protest vote. So if you were just running it, normally you would have looked at three things. You would have said, well, it's a by election, probably gerbic, anti government, probably lower turnout. And then you would have looked at the local elections in May and you would have said Labour was trailing 20 points behind Reform. And remember, of course, in the background is this by election, Gorton and Dent, which they didn't let Andy Burnham run in and which Labour lost. And there were a lot of people at the time saying, oh, there's nothing to say that if he had run, if the NEC had allowed him to run, he really would have won. I think the evidence, I would suggest, points to the idea that he probably would have won big there too. Back over to you.
- [07:10]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, so I think the exam question that is keeping quite a lot of Labour people awake at night is who can stop reform? And the stat of all the different stats we can look at that they'll be looking at most closely is this one 23% swing from reform to Labour since May in the seats that Reform took from Labour in those local elections. And as you say, Andy Byrne are more than doubling Labour's share of the vote. And this seat, by the way, I'M indebted to Peter Kellner for this. I'd forgotten this, but this seat had the sixth highest reform vote in the last general election. So I guess what MPs are seeing and thinking about this morning is this, that there is a way to stop reform. I've always felt that there is two. But they're thinking Andy Burnham may be essential to that way. So the pressure on Keir Starm is huge. There's no doubt about that. Numbers matter in politics. Polls come and go, but these are real numbers. And the truth is Andy Burnham has done better than expected. So then we ask, what happens now? And the truth is, nobody knows. I've talked to a lot of people. I've talked to a lot of the key people. As late as Wednesday, Keir Starmer was gathering in MPs and telling them, whatever the result, if there is a challenge, I'm going to fight it. His one public response so far is a social media post. We're recording this, you know, in the morning of after the byelection is a social media post saying voters chose Labour's campaign of hope and optimism over. Over division and hate. But of course, if you've been to Makerfield, you might see that at all the billboards, at all the posters around there. It doesn't say labor, it says Andy. So all depends now what these key figures decide to do. I don't believe Andy Burnham wants to make that challenge, but he will make clear, if they do have a conversation, that he's got the numbers, if that is needed. And the truth is, you know this, in politics, MPs can be very herd, like those numbers are likely to be growing. I don't think he'll do. I very much doubt we'll see him much over the media, other than maybe going for a run or having a pint or whatever he might do, because he'll be waiting to see what unfolds the same as everybody else. So key to this, Keir Starmer's reaction. Key also, Wes Streeting's reaction. But I think to some extent, I suspect this takes Wes treating pretty much out the game. And if I had to put my life on it, I think Andy Burnham could be there by conference.
- [09:43]
Rory Stewart
Okay. And conference is October, right?
- [09:46]
Alistair Campbell
It's late September, last week of September, yeah.
- [09:48]
Rory Stewart
So really big news. I mean, that's a new Prime Minister for the uk, something that again, will puzzle the world because Keir Sama won a really big majority. Looked like he could sit there for five years, and Britain's going through prime ministers at a kind of Belgian, Italian rate at the moment. But I think the logic of this, and obviously, MPs can behave in very illogical ways, and Labour MPs can behave in illogical ways like anyone else. But. But if I keep coming back to two drums that I've been banging, the first is, Keir Starmer cannot win the next election. The guy for his many merits. There are many things that are likable about Keir Starmer. He's just no good as a Prime Minister. He's not a winning phenomenon. His net popularity is terrible. He can't make a speech. He doesn't have any clear definition. I can't find anyone in any meeting I go to who can tell me what his economic policy is, what his growth policy is, what it stands for. So my analogy's always been, look, with Keir Sammer, it's a losing proposition. The ship's heading into the iceberg now. Getting off and getting on the lifeboats may not work, Andy Burnham may not work, but there's no serious alternatives to staying with Starman. The second thing I think we've been saying is that if Burnham wins well, and he's won really well here, it's answered the number one big question in politics, which is, can you take on reform? And what I love about it, to sound like a bit of an Andy Burnham fanboy for a moment, is that he's not done it in the way that some of the people advising the Conservative Party would have said is the only way of beating reform. He's done it with a pretty decent, straightforward campaign. He hasn't done any crazy. I mean, there's lots of temptations. If you're taking on reform in a constituency, imagine the pressure on you to think, well, I can sound a little bit more right wing and radical, I can steal a little bit of reforms language here. I can surprise people because I can count on my labor vote, I can bring over reform. He hasn't done that. It was a pretty sunny. I mean, sorry. On the ground it felt very nasty. But the way Burnham's conducted himself has been pragmatic, progressive, laid back, and he's won big. And I think that's the recipe for British politics. I think what Starmer got wrong was that he lost that sense of being a happy warrior. He lost the sense of being able to communicate well, having a sense of hope, and that actually, Morgan McSweeney was the kind of worst of all worlds. If what he was doing is saying the way to beat reform is to on Certain issues sound like a kind of mini reform without being able to sound the more optimistic notes back over to you.
- [12:27]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah, I mean, I guess, look, Keir Starmer will have a lot of deep thinking to do in the next few days and will doubtless be talking to all sorts of people. And he'll probably be feeling very, very angry. And he can get very angry, Kier. And the thing is that he's probably thinking, I led the Labour Party to a landslide victory when they told us that we were finished and they said that we could never do it, and I did it. The economy actually was beginning to pick up a bit until Donald Trump did his stupid bloody war in Iran. Reform have made their numbers rise on the back of small boats and immigration. And actually, we've done some pretty tough things and we get the numbers going the right way. The National Health Service numbers are going the right way. Lots that he can point to. The trouble is, as you say, when you're out and about, and I'm the same as you, I'm always talking to people about what they think. And even people who have often benefited from labor government policy changes aren't even necessarily aware that they've happened. And that is a sort of political communications issue. The other reason, he'll be feeling angry. But this works both ways. And I think, you know, because obviously a lot depends now on how these two deal with each other. The fact is there is next to no trust between them, and that is a problem, and that's a political failure. I remember quite a long time ago being up in Manchester. I mean, it was after Keir Starmer became leader, but before he became Prime Minister. I remember seeing Andy Burnham and him saying, well, God, the way these guys operate, if you. Unless you're 100%, echo everything they say. You get stuff through the press, blah, blah, blah. Keir's. Talk to Keir Starmer's people and they'll say, bloody Andy Burnham is impossible to deal with. Anything you do. He trims a little bit this way, trims a little bit that way, that way. But the truth is that trust has broken down. Now, I think it is possible, you know, we talked about this and I think I got it wrong about the Gordon and Denton thing when I actually thought I could see why Keir Starmer was getting the National Executive to block Andy Bernard from standing. I think it's possible that back then he might have been able to say, andy, you show you can win. Win. Come in and I give you a big job in the Cabinet and then let's see how things go. But I'm afraid I think the process around then is the reason why Keir Starmer, apparently, now, having said to Andy Burnham, why don't you come into the Cabinet? If you get back into Parliament, Andy Burnham is making clear no. And in his acceptance speech, he had this line, you know, we'll get no second chance. Now, that's a deliberate way to accept. You can't change your Prime Minister every five minutes like the Tories did. But he's basically saying, I am your second chance. So this really is hard, brutal politics. Now, he's going to arrive in Parliament on Monday, he's going to take his seat. Does Keir Starmer sit in Parliament for that? Does he kind of, you know, smile happily? And of course, he's not bound to set a timetable for his departure. But that is basically what Andy Burnham and those who are supporting him are going to be asking for.
- [15:36]
Rory Stewart
Two things that I was thinking when you were talking, as you say, he blew it by refusing to let him run in Gordon and Denton. I mean, again, it's a classic sign of the sort of McSweeney mindset going wrong. I suppose the cliche there is kind of Mafia cliche. If you're going to strike at the King, you must kill him. So if you've tried to exclude and destroy Andy Burnham and stop him coming in once and you failed, you can't then hope to control him when he comes in the second time. I think the other thing is that all those stories about anger sound absolutely identical to Joe Biden. I mean, almost phrase by phrase, what she said there. Number one, I was the guy that beat Donald Trump and I'm not going to give him credit for the fact that I brought the Democrats in. Number two, the only reason this thing is going wrong is because of these MAGA guys. Number three, you know, they're getting support because of immigration. But I'm doing stuff on immigration. I'm almost identical to Republicans on immigration. All that is understandable. But the reason it sounds like Joe Biden is it's the anger of somebody who is trying to cling on when the party and the country knows they can't win the next election and they need to be got rid of. And their anger is that people aren't being grateful towards them. But that's not legitimate in a football manager or a CEO or a Prime minister. You're not there for the gratitude. You're there to win and you can't win. And like Biden, the longer this dude clings on the worse because once you've lost it, there's no point being a sort of lame duck Prime Minister or president.
- [17:16]
Alistair Campbell
How do you feel looking in on it with the notion that they could replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and therefore as Prime Minister without any contest at all?
- [17:28]
Rory Stewart
I believe in contests. I mean, I think that's one of the things that went wrong with Kamala Harris. She never got a chance to really show whether she could beat it. The country never really felt there was any contest. I think Theresa May coming in with a coronation was awkward. If you remember, with that run, after Boris Johnson fell out, Andrea Ledsom fell out and she basically just came through. I'm less worried than you are by this idea of people knocking bits off each other. I think it can be quite healthy. That's my counterexample. So when I was running in that leadership in 2019, of course everybody in the Conservative Party was saying, could you leadership candidates stop attacking each other? This is very bad for our brand. Everybody hates us attacking each other. But the reality is that, that Boris Johnson came out of a pretty brutal campaign where we were all knocking bits off each other and won big. And I think people sort of understand that that can happen.
- [18:24]
Alistair Campbell
Let me jump in there then, Rose. So if you were sitting in a room with Keir Starmer now and you were his best friend, would you be saying to him he should stand in that contest even if he thinks he might lose? And if you were Wes Streeting's best friend, would you be saying to him, look, Andy cannot come in and just have a coronation. At least somebody like you has to stand and offer a different vision for the Labour Party, would you advise him to do it?
- [18:50]
Rory Stewart
I think the latter probably makes more sense because if the story is that Keir Starmer can't make it, making him go through a painful campaign pretending to run when nobody believes he should be Prime Minister doesn't make sense. I think the worst Streeting story's a good one because presumably that's what your friend Tony Blair would like to see. I mean, I guess that's what his letter was about. There is another story that Labour needs to get its head around and I think Andy Bern needs to answer, which is, is there a radically different economic policy that a centre left party could pursue? Could they have a different energy policy? Could they have a different tax policy? Could they have a different innovation policy? What calls is he going to make on tech, non doms, energy, foreign policy, all this sort of stuff that that Blair thing was trying to stir up. So I don't like the idea that somebody. And I also think that there's nothing for Burnham to be afraid of. He's on a winning streak. I'd take the risk if I was him because it looks sort of slightly pathetic to just be crowned and I'd certainly, if I was Burnham, be saying, bring it on. I'd love to have the debate. I don't want to be crowned. I'd like people to run against me.
- [20:04]
Alistair Campbell
I don't think that's where he is. I think he thinks that the. I think his view is probably that in a way, this contest that he's just won and the scale of the win is more significant for the country than a debate, internal debate that could tear the party apart and get people to say crazy things because they're appealing to a different sort of electorate. So it's a kind of risk. It is a risk. And also what's interesting, when you were going through all the sort of policy on this, policy on that, will he change this? Will he change that? I know a couple of times the Conservatives got away with resisting the pressure of saying, look, if you change your Prime Minister, you have to have a general election. We shouldn't underestimate the pressure that there will be. And with a media that is going to be. If Andy Burnham does replace Keir Starmer. The massive hostility of most of the right wing media to Keir Starmer translates automatically. The sort of Russian propaganda, et cetera, operations that have been running, which we've learned more in recent times, they're going to transfer. So he's got to have in him, he's obviously got confidence. I agree with you about the nature of his campaign. I'd have been very tempted, running that campaign, to have taken all sorts of lumps off reform, really tried to have made Farage and crypto and all that stuff really tried to get in there and he resisted all that. But I think in getting democratic legitimacy on the back of one by election of 60,000 voters, whatever it is, is. I think it's a stretch, so. But you know, if I. Again, if I had to put my life on it, we're living in such unpredictable, volatile times. But my money at the moment probably would be if he is going to be Prime Minister in the next few months on a. On a coronation. My son Rory's just sent me a thing. Betfair has him 94 to be the next Prime Minister. That's. That means, Rory, that you don't want to. Don't do A Kamala Harris style bet on that one. Please just don't, just don't do it. You mentioned there. The other thing that I think is really significant out of this violation and which won't I don't think get maybe the debate that it should. I've been saying to you for some time that I think we are through peak reform and I know that's counterintuitive because they keep coming topping the polls, but I think reform have a ceiling and I think some of this stuff, I think the money stuff has damaged Farage, I think the Russia stuff does damage. I actually think that the generic Braverman Zahawi, these Tory retreads coming over and suddenly being the big figures in the in reform. And as if we're so stupid as to hear John Jenrick talk about immigration when he was the immigration minister responsible for some of the disasters that he now says are disasters. And an interesting thing we have James cleverly on leading this week. I noticed him, he last night posted a couple of council by elections in Essex, which Reform won in the local elections. They've had by elections, presumably because the candidates have thought, oh, I didn't expect to win, I don't want to do it. And they've now lost and they've gone back to the Conservatives. So I think this is really bad for reform. Farage will do his usual thing. I bet he goes to ground for a bit. He'll hope all the focus is on the Burnham rather than him. So let's take a break and then we come back. We'll talk about this election in Aberdeen South. Very, very interesting Tories beating the snp. And also we'll maybe focus of the challenges that Andy Burnham would face if he does replace Keir Starmer.
- [23:30]
Rory Stewart
Absolutely looking forward to talking about it after the break.
- [23:33]
Gary Lineker
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- [24:31]
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- [26:02]
Alistair Campbell
so good, so good, so good.
- [26:04]
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- [26:34]
Rory Stewart
Welcome back to the Rest Is Politics
- [26:36]
Alistair Campbell
with me, Rory Stewart and me, Alistair Campbell. And we're talking on this Friday morning after three by elections, two in Scotland, one in the north west of England, which may may be a step on the road to a change of occupant of Downing Street. But Rory, Scotland was interesting too.
- [26:53]
Rory Stewart
Yeah. So one story that you could have got looking at the election we just saw in Makerfield is that the Tories were wiped out. They got barely 2% of the vote. They lost their deposit. I mean, the Greens and the Thames too.
- [27:07]
Alistair Campbell
I'd love to know how many of them voted for. How many people who voted for those three parties at the general election voted for Andy Burnham. I bet some did.
- [27:14]
Rory Stewart
There was a loss of Tories going over to Andy Burnham, which of course, for somebody like me, who actually believes there's a huge constituency for quite gentle, progressive, thoughtful politics in the centre ground. Andy Burnham's hugely cheering and I think the Tories should be really worried. I think this is where Berna may prove that he can attract in a way that Starmer couldn't, a loss of the center right voters over if the Tories continue to try to chase the reform on the right. So you might have looked at that election and you could actually say, this is the death knell for the Conservatives. This is the moment at which they become like Francois Hollande's Socialist Party in France. Or this is the moment where the Canadian Conservatives are wiped out because it's so bad. And then, as you say, up in Aberdeen south, astonishingly, the Conservatives just won a seat against the S and P, turning around the general election result. And Kemi Badenoch's net popularity rating is going up. And again, there's going to be a huge debate within the Conservative Party. Some people will say it doesn't matter what her net popularity rating is. Look what happened in Makerfield. She got no votes. And of course, many people say it doesn't really matter for Scottish Conservatives. Other people will try to spin it as a positive result, but it's partly about energy too. I noticed, and I'm going to push back to you on this because we keep having this conversation. But our mutual hero, Yanis Gar Stora, the wonderful Norwegian leader, has just come out saying he wants to drill in the Arctic. And he's quite rightly said, listen, this is completely crazy. We're talking about energy security. We can't rely on Russian gas. We've realized because of straight up Hormuz, we can't rely necessarily on Middle Eastern gas. We don't want to be completely ad hoc to Donald Trump's gas. And we need gas, desperately need gas, because in most countries, unless you're lucky enough to have huge amounts of hydro, you need gas to back up your renewables. So we need to drill for sovereign reasons, not price reasons. This is what's so irritating about this discussion with AB Miliban. It's not about the gas price, it's about sovereignty, it's about having your own supply. And I think that's basically the argument that's been run in Aberdeen south successfully by the Conservatives against the S and P. With Labour collapsing.
- [29:33]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. And again, probably, I think tactical voting there as well. The Labour vote did collapse, but I suspect a lot of, look, Labour in Scotland, Labour always want to kick the SNP as hard as they can, so I suspect there will have been tactical voting there as well. I think the tactical voting issue is probably going to be, and this is maybe a consequence of this 5, 6 party politics that we're now in, that people are motivated often as much as, if not more, by who do I not want to win as who I want to win? There's no doubt Nigel Farage has his following, but he has a lot of people who cannot even begin to stomach the idea that he might actually become Prime Minister. And I think that's a very powerful motivation to vote Andy Burnham, even if you're a Tory. And then I think there was a bit of that in Scotland. But listen, there's no doubt Douglas Lumsden, the Conservative candidate, and Kemi Badenot went up there a few times as well. They were fighting on a kind of oil and gas. You know, we've taken enough damage to the oil and gas industry campaign. Labour were never going to win this. This has always been Tory SMP battleground. But it will make, I think, both UK and Scottish government understand that the politicization of this debate is, you know, has the potential to be a problem. We should say, by the way, to our listeners, we're doing something a bit different on Question Time next week because Rory and I have been arguing a lot about energy policy recently. We're going to have on for a special Question Time a wonderful guy by the name of Dan Jurgensen. He's Danish, but he's the European Commission Energy Commissioner. He knows the energy world inside out. So we're going to be looking for your questions over the weekend and then doing that that next week. But yeah, listen, there's no doubt big focus today will be on Andy Burnham and Makerfield, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kemi Badenoch, if she isn't already, is on a flight to Aberdeen to try to get the focus on that. And then the other one in our growth was an SNP hold.
- [31:35]
Rory Stewart
Is it the case that actually Both reform and the SNP have basically been damaged by scandal and money. I mean, part of the story here is that the fallout of this extraordinary revelations around Peter Morell, the former CEO of the S and P and husband of Nicola Sturgeon, about him stealing party funds and spending it on his own cars and watches and coffee machines and things damaged them. Or is that not the story in Aberdeen's house?
- [32:07]
Alistair Campbell
Listen, I don't know. I didn't go there, but I saw one of the SNP leaders being asked that and he was very dismissive. I think they felt that this was more the snp. I think there is a bit of an aftershock to the fact that amid all this scandal, the SNP won the Scottish election so comprehensively, as you and I have often said, after not being that good as a government of Scotland and Scotland's public services. So I don't know is the answer. But I do think the kind of chipping away at Farage, with a media that doesn't really focus on these scandals in the way that it would if it was a Labour politician or in Scotland, an SNP politician, I think it is chipping away. I actually think the Russia thing is beginning to trouble people about Farage and the fact that they didn't even come out and condemn the Russian involvement in the attacks on Keir Starmer. Kemi Badenot did what you said earlier, by the way, about Morgan McSweeney, labor strategy, Burnham and Starmer vis a vis reform. I wonder if this isn't the moment where Kemi Badenoch also has to understand or face up to the idea that actually for her to think that it's all about competing on the Farage, Rupert Low space is not the way to build a bigger base than she, than she now has. So we'll see on that. Roy, one other interesting observation which I think you'd be particularly interested in. So we're in Paris at the moment because we're about to go and do an interview with Gabriel Zucman, the tax guy. But I was just thinking Chirac, Sarkozy, Hollande, all were mayors before going on to be president. Edouard Philippe is currently a mayor and he may be the guy who's the sort of main contender against the Rassemblement Nationale and Scheinbaum in Mexico and Renzi in Italy. I just wonder if there's another important thing here, is that the mayor or the elected mayors that we brought in, that that has become a new independent power base outside of the Westminster world, that if you're big and Bold and ruthless, which clearly Andy Burnham has showed himself to be, then that's a different route into the top. I think that's quite interesting.
- [34:28]
Rory Stewart
Absolutely. And of course, the first person to spot this in British politics was Boris Johnson, because what he discovered by being mayor is that he could show that he could. And Andy Burnham does this too. You can choose when to be loyal and when to be disloyal towards your party, because in the end you're putting your own city first. And that allows you to basically, uniquely in your party, lay out a completely independent platform. You are also able to get things done or come across more as a CEO. In a world in which everybody feels that ministers are totally paralyzed by process and law and nobody's sure who's in charge, you can be out on the ground. And I think that when politics is driven by lack of trust, your best route is probably being a mayor, because you are actually out on the ground endlessly meeting people, interacting with them on the street. They're seeing you face to face and you can be non political. I think that's the final thing. I mean, the genius of Boris Johnson and his better incarnation as the Mayor of London before he became this catastrophic prime minister, was that he often was quite non political and quite liberal and quite funny. And Andy Burnham is really interesting. He is all about getting away from the Westminster games. He's been extremely sort of non tribal and I think people really respond to that. So I'm really cheered up by the Andy Burnham phenomenon. The question is, is he going to be able to hold on to what he's found? He's a much, much better mayor than he was a member of the Westminster Parliament. And the question is, has that changed him permanently or is he going to revert back and be sucked back into the Westminster game, or can he keep some of that confidence and energy?
- [36:17]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. And what will Lindsay Hoyle say if he turns up in Parliament with a. With a black vest on? I mean, that could be, I think the rules still. Not that you have to wear a shirt.
- [36:29]
Rory Stewart
Yeah, you do, absolutely.
- [36:30]
Alistair Campbell
I think the other couple of points on Andy maybe to end on. And also I've just been. Somebody just sent me Nigel Farage's reaction. I'll give you that in a minute. It's interesting. Are you there saying he's very non tribal and et cetera, et cetera, and non divisive. But in a way, those people who feel very, very loyal to Keir Starmer are going to be sitting there thinking, how can you say that he's exploited divisiveness and tribalism to get where he is.
- [36:58]
Rory Stewart
Explain that to me. Explain it to me asi because I suppose I'm talking as a non labor tribal member. I'm not picking up with him a sort of particular nastiness towards Tory voters. I remember when we were interviewing Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Bridget Phillipson before the election, I got a real sense that these were people who were very, very uncomfortable with Tories. Whereas when I interviewed Andy Burnham, I didn't feel that at all. I felt he was good humored. He was quite sort of broad minded. He was able to. So why does he seem tribal within the party when he doesn't seem tribal outside the party?
- [37:31]
Alistair Campbell
Well, no, it's not that he's tribal, but you can't say he's not divisive when his whole strategy at the moment is to find a way to get rid of the Prime Minister, which the Labour Party does not not do historically. Let's just say he does come in and let's say he does become Prime Minister. As you say, he'll want to make a mark. He'll have to work out the balance between I am change, but not pushing it so far that people say, well, hold on a minute, that's not in Labour's manifesto. You need your own mandate. And the other thing he'll do to signal change is to make Cabinet changes. He would do that now. That creates enemies, that creates division, that creates.
- [38:10]
Rory Stewart
I think it's fine. I think he has to be changed. You were right about that with Rishi Sunak, that the stupidest thing for Rishi Sunak was not to distance himself enough. And again, my least favorite politician, Boris Johnson, managed to do that. He came in and he became absolute change. And he just lent into that, totally redid his cabinet. People like me walked out in disgust and horror. He took the party in a radically different direction and he did it successfully. Now, it turned out that he was defeated by his own lack of focus, lack of morality, lack of clarity. But what he did prove is that people want change and Andy Burnham needs to have change. And the worst thing that Andy Burnham could possibly do is keep Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, keep Bridget Phillipson in Education. I think if he was bold and this will be really difficult for him, but I think it would be very interesting to move Ed Miliband to another really serious great Office of State position, maybe out of energy would signal something interesting.
- [39:14]
Alistair Campbell
Well, I don't have any doubt at all that Ed would like to be challenged with the Exchequer there's no doubt about that at all. But the reaction to that would be en verra. But the other thing. And talking about Chant of the Exchequer, of course, don't forget, if there's going to be a budget in the autumn, there's not going to be an economic miracle between now and the autumn. It's going to be pretty tough. Added to which some of the process is already underway. There's already kind of some of the preparation for that. So look, it is going to be really, really fascinating. It's all depending in the next bit on Keir Starmer's actual reaction. I don't just mean a post, I mean what he's actually thinking and actually planning and thinking he might do and then, and then the others. And of course MPs and ministers are going to be chattering away to each other all over the weekend.
- [40:02]
Rory Stewart
Final one for me, I just, just sort of worried about the Starmer reaction connection point. Because if it's inevitable, let's say your Rory's right, and there's a close to 100% chance that Andy Burnham's the next prime minister, then presumably, ideally, Starmer would be gracious and cheerful and supportive. There's nothing to be gained by him being grumpy, bitter, angry and chippy about the whole thing. I mean, it may be inevitable given his personality in the situation, but it's not really in his interest, Labour's interests or the country's interest for him to approach it like that.
- [40:32]
Alistair Campbell
But he, he may think that he would be better. He may think that.
- [40:39]
Rory Stewart
I'm sure Joe Biden thought that he'd be a better president than Kamal Harris.
- [40:43]
Alistair Campbell
Well, that's why maybe that illustrates your point. And of course, we now have a situation where neither of them are. My point is, look, you've been in politics, you know this. Don't never rule out the kind of the something different to most people inside the politician that makes them not always see things in a way that a conventional wisdom might be forming to see them. And that's just why I think we're still in kind of nobody quite knows what happens next territory. What is beyond doubt is that Andy Burnham has taken a big bowl risk. And also the other thing to remember, don't forget, there's now a by election for the Manchester mayoralty, Andy Burnham, who will be enjoying his triumph today. What he can't do is then be held responsible for something terrible. And I don't think it will if labor get their act together on the back of this, I think labor should Be able to. To find the right candidate and to hold that. But not a given. Far from a given. Let me just tell you, I said, before we go, Rory, and we go and talk to Gabrielle Zukman, should we do it in French or English, which you prefer?
- [41:51]
Rory Stewart
You're definitely going to do it in French House.
- [41:52]
Alistair Campbell
I know you're going to do it in French. I'm not. I'm not. I'm not. So Nigel Farage has said he is disappointed. Well, that's good news. And he's urged some of his supporters who defected to Restore to think again. See, that's him acknowledging that tactical votes
- [42:06]
Rory Stewart
need to keep him out. This was a speech written assuming that the only reason he didn't win was because of Restore. And of course, the great thing is that even if they'd combined their votes, they wouldn't have beaten yes.
- [42:16]
Alistair Campbell
So he goes on, what really happened here was it was vote Burnham, get Keir Starmer out. Which, of course was our campaign message leading up to the locals on May 7th. 7th. So we were slightly get this very French hoisted with our own petard. As for the Reform vote share, well, I thought we'd get 18,000 votes. We got just side of 16. So I'm disappointed. No question about that. So there you are. I think that's good that he's disappointed, because I think deep down maybe he knows that there is a way to beat reform and he's just taking a bit of a beating. And don't forget, they're lost in Caer Fill to Plyde, they lost in Gordon and Denton to the Greens, and now they've lost to Labour. So it underlines that point I made earlier. There is a very large body of opinion that thinks the idea of Nigel Farage being Prime Minister is truly horrific and we have to try to stop it.
- [43:11]
Rory Stewart
Well, very good luck, I think, to Andy Burnham is my view at the moment. And because whatever my views are on British politics, I would much rather we had Andy Berman as Prime Minister than Nigel Farage or Rupert Lowe. And I think a lot is riding on this. Can he be the Mark Carney? Can he be the figure of the center who brings people together? Stands for democracy, stands for compromise, stands for persuasion against these increasingly disturbing and brutal populist parties. And I mean increasingly disturbing and brutal. I don't care that everybody listening to me who's on the Tory side is now flirting with reform. Look at the kind of stuff that these people are posting. Look at what they're saying. Look at people like Elon Musk getting in behind them. I think there is an incredible opportunity if Burnham holds the ground to unite people and inspire people again. And I was so sad that Keir Starmer failed to do it and he failed to do it because they were too small minded. They were too labor, they were too bitter, they were too anti Tory, they were too ungenerous in the way that they talked about things. Burnham really, I think, can do it, but he's just got to hold on to the Burnham of Manchester and not become the Burnham of sort of 2010 Westminster.
- [44:30]
Alistair Campbell
Yeah. And also in the end is about ideas. It's three years is a long time he's going to inherit if he becomes prime minister, all the difficult challenges that Geir Starmer's had. But I think, you know, you cannot take away the fact that he's done the big, bold thing and on a what is going to be a complicated journey. It's this stage has without doubt paid off. Okay. And just before we finish, Rory, bit of housekeeping given we've done this, make a field episode today. Who funds reform? Episode four, which was due out today, will be out next Friday. Sign up@the restedspologies.com to catch up on the first three episodes and be ready for episode four when it drops on Friday. And you may or may not be pleased to know a lot of it is about Nigel Farage and his funding. See you then.
- [45:18]
Rory Stewart
See you then. Bye bye.
- [45:26]
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Rory Stewart
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