The Rest Is Politics — China Vs USA: Who Will Win the AI Race?

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Alastair Campbell (A) and Rory Stewart (B)
Guest: Tino Cuellar (C), President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Episode Overview

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, joined by Tino Cuellar, deliver a nuanced exploration of the increasingly fierce global competition in artificial intelligence. They assess the positions of the US and China, discuss technology export controls, and dissect the multifaceted relationship between governments and tech companies. The conversation weaves in historical perspective, current policy tensions, and the broader consequences of this technological rivalry, with sharp analysis and candid debate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dual Impact of Science and International Cooperation (01:02–01:54)

• Tino Cuellar highlights the transformative role of science and international cooperation, referencing advances in global health and literacy since 1950.
• Stresses that similar complex cooperation is needed to align global interests on AI, but current geopolitical distractions (e.g. Ukraine) make coordination harder.

Quote:
“Life expectancy went from 46 years to 73 years. Literacy has gone from 55% to closer to 80%... This is all a function to my mind of science and international cooperation... Right now those kinds of questions are channeled into: What does this technology do? How does it work? How can people benefit from it?” — Tino Cuellar (01:02)

2. US Strategy: Decoupling vs. Dominance Narratives (01:54–03:19)

• Alastair Campbell posits the US approach is an “unprecedented hoarding of power,” aiming to decouple China's economic growth from real-world power via AI export controls.
• They suggest that, from Beijing's view, US actions reflect continuity rather than any radical policy shift.
• Tino Cuellar agrees broadly, stating US administrations’ AI policy “has not changed from Biden to Trump”—signaling a geopolitical logic beyond partisanship.

Quote:
“The US looks at the inevitable rise of China and says, we need to find some way to decouple... US administrations of both stripes have... say[ing] AI is one of the core ways that we can achieve this historically unprecedented hoarding of power…” — Alastair Campbell (01:54)

Quote:
“Does the US want to be the best at frontier AI? Absolutely. That has not changed from Biden to Trump... there’s a geopolitical logic at work here.” — Tino Cuellar (03:21)

3. Balancing AI Competition with Global Benefit (03:19–05:11)

• Tino Cuellar explores the contradiction between the competitive reality at the government & company level, and public posturing about benefiting humanity.
• Rory Stewart pushes back, sceptical that “America First” policy (under Trump especially) is genuinely concerned with global benefit (e.g. for Africa).

Quote:
“How can we reconcile the reality of competition at the company level and at the geopolitical level with the idea that those who are doing the competing... say, I want to find some way to bring this technology to many, many people...?” — Tino Cuellar (03:51)

4. Government vs. Private Sector Power over AI (05:11–07:16)

• Discussion about the extent to which US presidents can direct tech companies, referencing Trump’s actions in Ukraine—demonstrating companies aren’t sovereign.
• Tino Cuellar argues US tech policy is a “pluralistic fight” with the private sector as a major player—tech is not wholly controlled by presidential will.

Quote:
“The reality of what ends up happening with tech policy is a sort of... pluralistic fight... in which the private sector itself, for better and maybe not better, is a key player.” — Tino Cuellar (06:15)

5. J.D. Vance and the AI Action Summit — “American AI” Doctrine (07:16–08:46)

• Alastair Campbell recounts VP J.D. Vance’s 2025 Paris AI Action Summit speech as a snapshot of the Trump administration’s stance:
  1. “The future of AI is American models running on American chips, full stop.”
  2. Only the US will regulate its AI companies.
  3. Critique of “woke” tech companies.
  4. Labour must have a seat at the policy table.
• The panel agrees there’s tension: big tech is at once the vehicle for US AI dominance and a perceived threat to domestic MAGA priorities.

Quote:
“American chips, American models, American regulation, but regulated with MAGA views on woke and MAGA views on labor participation.” — Rory Stewart (08:36)

6. Complexity of the Global AI Supply Chain (09:09–11:57)

• Tino Cuellar breaks down the global AI hardware ecosystem:
  • Nvidia designs most powerful chips (US), manufactured in Taiwan (TSMC), dependent on Dutch/German lithography (ASML).
  • Despite the interdependence, the US wields dominant leverage via design and capital.
  • Features a vivid illustration: “If you took the mirrors in these [ASML] machines and blew them up so that the mirror was actually the size of Germany, there would be no blemish on that mirror bigger than about a centimeter…”
• Stresses that a US effort to tightly restrict Nvidia’s exports would face serious backlash, even domestically.

7. Export Controls, Tech Policy, and the DeepSeek Incident (12:03–16:30)

• Biden’s Chips Act: Bars Nvidia from selling its best chips to China; Trump administration reviewed and adjusted controls.
• DeepSeek (Chinese AI model) made headlines for matching US model quality “with less hardware,” triggering a panic—Nvidia’s stock dipped and policymakers debated the wisdom of strict export controls.
• Some, like David Sacks, argued the US should have made China dependent on US chips—a “NATO model.”
• Current policy: Some remaining restrictions, but now more flexible about chip exports; underlying debate remains unsettled.

Quote:
“DeepSeek basically was the first Chinese model... that felt almost as good as the top American models.” — Alastair Campbell (13:44)
“Part of what let the DeepSeek model get trained so cheaply is to... distill knowledge from American models and... incorporate that into the training...” — Tino Cuellar (13:48)

Quote:
“This is called the NATO model. This is make everybody else dependent on you and then leverage that.” — Rory Stewart (15:08)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US policy continuity:
  “The similarities are more striking than the differences.” — Alastair Campbell (03:43)

• On American tech self-interest:
  “Whatever Trump specifically wants to do... the private sector itself, for better and maybe not better, is a key player.” — Tino Cuellar (06:15)

• On cutting-edge chip tech:
  “If you took the mirrors in these machines and blew them up so that the mirror was actually the size of Germany, there would be no blemish... bigger than about a centimeter...” — Tino Cuellar (11:35)

Foundational Takeaways (By Timemark)

• [01:02]–[01:54]: International cooperation’s legacy and challenge in the AI era
• [01:54]–[03:19]: U.S. strategy: containment, decoupling, and continuity
• [07:16]–[08:46]: J.D. Vance and the “American AI” paradigm
• [09:09]–[11:57]: Geopolitical complexity of the hardware supply chain
• [12:03]–[16:30]: DeepSeek, export controls, and the shifting sands of tech dependence

Tone and Style

• Debate is lively but respectful, with frequent attempts to reconcile perspectives.
• Campbell offers sharp, policy-focused analysis; Stewart brings historical and geopolitical skepticism; Cuellar is reflective and diplomatic.
• The episode expertly intertwines high-level policy analysis with concrete examples and real-world events.

Conclusion

China Vs USA: Who Will Win the AI Race? provides a layered, expertly argued overview of global competition in artificial intelligence, revealing the tensions between security, economics, and ideology. The episode stands out for its willingness to critically interrogate both American and Chinese motives, pulling no punches in exploring the ambiguities at the heart of today's AI arms race.