Podcast Title: The Rest Is Politics
Host/Author: Goalhanger
Episode: Question Time: Has the US Underestimated China?
Release Date: April 30, 2025

Overview

In this episode of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart engage in a thorough analysis of whether the United States has underestimated China's growing global influence. The discussion delves into China's strategic alliances, the impact of U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration, and the broader implications for international relations. Additionally, the hosts explore related topics such as populism in Poland, the renationalization of water services in the UK, and innovative rehabilitation programs in prisons. The episode is enriched with insights from experts and real-world examples, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current geopolitical landscape.

Main Discussion: Has the US Underestimated China?

Alastair Campbell initiates the conversation by asserting that the U.S. has indeed underestimated China's multifaceted growth. He highlights a clip from J.D. Vance that emphasizes China's vast manufacturing prowess and its evolution beyond traditional perceptions. Campbell points out that China’s strategic tours to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia following the imposition of tariffs under Trump illustrate its adeptness at forging new alliances.

• Quote [02:43]:
  Alastair Campbell: "China is the China that's grown to the extent that it has. There's no doubt that after the tariff thing, Xi Jinping went on tours to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, showing America's hubris in thinking it can do everything alone."

Rory Stewart complements this by sharing an anecdote from a conversation with a senior Indonesian official. The official noted China's impressive infrastructure projects, such as the artificial island with a wind turbine-laden bridge, showcasing China's technological advancements and strategic investments.

• Quote [04:59]:
  Alastair Campbell: "Kurt Campbell wrote that America's complacency and overestimation of unilateral power, especially under Trump, is underestimating China's ability to counter it. Trump's tariffs have damaged alliances globally, with countries like Canada and Australia witnessing China's assertive power in Africa and beyond."

The hosts emphasize that the Trump administration's approach—marked by tariffs and strained alliances—has inadvertently provided China with opportunities to strengthen its global foothold. They reference former MI6 head Alex Younger's insights on the necessity of alliances for U.S. strength, contrasting it with the current administration's unilateral tendencies.

Populism and Resistance: Lessons from Poland

The conversation shifts to Poland's resistance against right-wing populism, specifically the actions of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) since 2016. Rory Stewart recounts the systematic attempts by PiS to undermine Poland's judiciary, including taking over constitutional courts and prosecutorial appointments, which led to significant backlash.

• Quote [09:56]:
  Rory Stewart: "In 2015, the far-right PiS party tried to dismantle the judiciary by controlling judge appointments and disciplining those who opposed them. Polish judges, despite threats and media attacks, appealed to the European Court of Justice for support."

Alastair Campbell expands on this by highlighting the European Union's role in supporting Poland's judiciary, including withholding funds to pressure political reforms. The hosts commend Donald Tusk's leadership in mobilizing public support through campaigns and demonstrations, drawing parallels to potential strategies in the U.S. to counteract populist movements.

• Quote [12:51]:
  Alastair Campbell: "The European Court of Justice ruled that politicizing judicial appointments undermines the EU's legal system, leading to the withholding of billions in funding. Poland's effective mobilization against PiS, inspired by leaders like Donald Tusk, serves as a blueprint for resisting populist erosion of democratic institutions."

Renationalization of Water Services

The topic transitions to domestic UK issues, specifically the renationalization of water services. Clive Lewis, a Labour MP, raises concerns about the financial instability of private water companies and the public's overwhelming support for bringing water services back under public ownership.

• Quote [15:45]:
  Clive Lewis (Referenced by Rory Stewart): "114,000 people have signed a petition demanding public ownership of water services, with 82% in favor. Private companies have paid out £78 billion in dividends while accruing £60 billion in debt."

Rory Stewart expresses skepticism about the feasibility of renationalization, pointing out that transferring debts and securing funding for public infrastructure would require significant financial resources, likely necessitating increased taxes or higher water bills.

• Quote [16:58]:
  Rory Stewart: "Whether it's the private or public sector, substantial funding is required. Public renationalization would either increase water bills or taxes to cover the debts and necessary investments."

Alastair Campbell agrees, emphasizing that while the economic models are flawed, the political will and public demand make renationalization a pressing issue that requires a nuanced approach beyond simple economic calculus.

• Quote [18:11]:
  Alastair Campbell: "Public demand for clean waterways and beaches surpasses narrow economic metrics. The government needs to incorporate national narratives and values into policy decisions, recognizing the broader societal benefits of public ownership."

Prison Rehabilitation and Social Justice

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing innovative rehabilitation programs in UK prisons. The hosts describe an event organized by David Dean from Premier League fame, where prisoners are trained by football clubs to become coaches and groundskeepers upon release. Rory Stewart shares his personal experience attending the event, highlighting the transformative impact on participants and the potential for reducing recidivism.

• Quote [23:53]:
  Rory Stewart: "Prisoners engaging with football clubs have shown remarkable improvements in optimism, mental health, and confidence. Programs like these are essential for reducing reoffending rates, which currently stand at 50-70% for certain categories."

Alastair Campbell underscores the economic and social benefits of such programs, arguing that the government's insistence on strict financial metrics hinders funding for effective rehabilitation initiatives. He advocates for a more generous and imaginative approach to prison reform, citing successful models in the U.S. as examples.

• Quote [26:03]:
  Rory Stewart: "Modern governments often miss the mark by focusing narrowly on cost-benefit analyses, neglecting the intrinsic value of rehabilitation. Providing supportive environments in prisons leads to better societal outcomes post-release."

Member Questions and Lighthearted Exchanges

Towards the end of the episode, Campbell and Stewart address questions from TRIP Plus members, blending serious political discourse with lighthearted banter. Topics include personal reflections on the podcast’s evolution, political shifts within the hosts, and even a playful debate on the proper way to eat a chocolate digestive biscuit.

• Quote [36:47]:
  Roger (TRIP Member): "Do you eat chocolate digestives with the chocolate facing up or down?"
  Alastair Campbell: "I dunk it in tea and leave it long enough for the chocolate not to melt and the biscuit not to break."

The hosts also humorously discuss potential political alignments and party endorsements, reflecting on their own political journeys and the importance of maintaining ideological integrity amidst shifting party dynamics.

Conclusion

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart provide a nuanced examination of the U.S.'s strategic positioning vis-à-vis China, drawing on historical and contemporary examples to illustrate the complexities of international alliances and power dynamics. Their discussion extends to domestic issues such as populism, public service renationalization, and prison rehabilitation, offering listeners a multifaceted perspective on both global and local politics. The inclusion of member questions and personal anecdotes adds depth and relatability, making the episode both informative and engaging.

Listeners gain valuable insights into the importance of alliances, the pitfalls of unilateral policies, and the need for comprehensive approaches to social justice and public service management. The episode underscores the interconnectedness of global and domestic policies, urging thoughtful consideration and strategic action in the face of evolving political landscapes.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Alastair Campbell [02:43]:
  "China is the China that's grown to the extent that it has. There's no doubt that after the tariff thing, Xi Jinping went on tours to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, showing America's hubris in thinking it can do everything alone."

• Rory Stewart [04:59]:
  "Kurt Campbell wrote that America's complacency and overestimation of unilateral power, especially under Trump, is underestimating China's ability to counter it."

• Alastair Campbell [12:51]:
  "Poland's effective mobilization against PiS, inspired by leaders like Donald Tusk, serves as a blueprint for resisting populist erosion of democratic institutions."

• Rory Stewart [15:45]:
  "Whether it's the private or public sector, substantial funding is required. Public renationalization would either increase water bills or taxes to cover the debts and necessary investments."

• Alastair Campbell [18:11]:
  "Public demand for clean waterways and beaches surpasses narrow economic metrics. The government needs to incorporate national narratives and values into policy decisions."

• Rory Stewart [23:53]:
  "Prisoners engaging with football clubs have shown remarkable improvements in optimism, mental health, and confidence."

• Roger (TRIP Member) [36:47]:
  "Do you eat chocolate digestives with the chocolate facing up or down?"

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's key discussions, supporting insights, and memorable exchanges, providing a clear and engaging overview for both regular listeners and newcomers alike.