Question Time: Has the US underestimated China?

Summary

Podcast Title: The Rest Is Politics
Host/Author: Goalhanger
Episode: Question Time: Has the US Underestimated China?
Release Date: April 30, 2025

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Overview

In this episode of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart engage in a thorough analysis of whether the United States has underestimated China's growing global influence. The discussion delves into China's strategic alliances, the impact of U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration, and the broader implications for international relations. Additionally, the hosts explore related topics such as populism in Poland, the renationalization of water services in the UK, and innovative rehabilitation programs in prisons. The episode is enriched with insights from experts and real-world examples, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current geopolitical landscape.

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Main Discussion: Has the US Underestimated China?

Alastair Campbell initiates the conversation by asserting that the U.S. has indeed underestimated China's multifaceted growth. He highlights a clip from J.D. Vance that emphasizes China's vast manufacturing prowess and its evolution beyond traditional perceptions. Campbell points out that China’s strategic tours to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia following the imposition of tariffs under Trump illustrate its adeptness at forging new alliances.

• Quote [02:43]:
  Alastair Campbell: "China is the China that's grown to the extent that it has. There's no doubt that after the tariff thing, Xi Jinping went on tours to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, showing America's hubris in thinking it can do everything alone."

Rory Stewart complements this by sharing an anecdote from a conversation with a senior Indonesian official. The official noted China's impressive infrastructure projects, such as the artificial island with a wind turbine-laden bridge, showcasing China's technological advancements and strategic investments.

• Quote [04:59]:
  Alastair Campbell: "Kurt Campbell wrote that America's complacency and overestimation of unilateral power, especially under Trump, is underestimating China's ability to counter it. Trump's tariffs have damaged alliances globally, with countries like Canada and Australia witnessing China's assertive power in Africa and beyond."

The hosts emphasize that the Trump administration's approach—marked by tariffs and strained alliances—has inadvertently provided China with opportunities to strengthen its global foothold. They reference former MI6 head Alex Younger's insights on the necessity of alliances for U.S. strength, contrasting it with the current administration's unilateral tendencies.

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Populism and Resistance: Lessons from Poland

The conversation shifts to Poland's resistance against right-wing populism, specifically the actions of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) since 2016. Rory Stewart recounts the systematic attempts by PiS to undermine Poland's judiciary, including taking over constitutional courts and prosecutorial appointments, which led to significant backlash.

• Quote [09:56]:
  Rory Stewart: "In 2015, the far-right PiS party tried to dismantle the judiciary by controlling judge appointments and disciplining those who opposed them. Polish judges, despite threats and media attacks, appealed to the European Court of Justice for support."

Alastair Campbell expands on this by highlighting the European Union's role in supporting Poland's judiciary, including withholding funds to pressure political reforms. The hosts commend Donald Tusk's leadership in mobilizing public support through campaigns and demonstrations, drawing parallels to potential strategies in the U.S. to counteract populist movements.

• Quote [12:51]:
  Alastair Campbell: "The European Court of Justice ruled that politicizing judicial appointments undermines the EU's legal system, leading to the withholding of billions in funding. Poland's effective mobilization against PiS, inspired by leaders like Donald Tusk, serves as a blueprint for resisting populist erosion of democratic institutions."

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Renationalization of Water Services

The topic transitions to domestic UK issues, specifically the renationalization of water services. Clive Lewis, a Labour MP, raises concerns about the financial instability of private water companies and the public's overwhelming support for bringing water services back under public ownership.

• Quote [15:45]:
  Clive Lewis (Referenced by Rory Stewart): "114,000 people have signed a petition demanding public ownership of water services, with 82% in favor. Private companies have paid out £78 billion in dividends while accruing £60 billion in debt."

Rory Stewart expresses skepticism about the feasibility of renationalization, pointing out that transferring debts and securing funding for public infrastructure would require significant financial resources, likely necessitating increased taxes or higher water bills.

• Quote [16:58]:
  Rory Stewart: "Whether it's the private or public sector, substantial funding is required. Public renationalization would either increase water bills or taxes to cover the debts and necessary investments."

Alastair Campbell agrees, emphasizing that while the economic models are flawed, the political will and public demand make renationalization a pressing issue that requires a nuanced approach beyond simple economic calculus.

• Quote [18:11]:
  Alastair Campbell: "Public demand for clean waterways and beaches surpasses narrow economic metrics. The government needs to incorporate national narratives and values into policy decisions, recognizing the broader societal benefits of public ownership."

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Prison Rehabilitation and Social Justice

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing innovative rehabilitation programs in UK prisons. The hosts describe an event organized by David Dean from Premier League fame, where prisoners are trained by football clubs to become coaches and groundskeepers upon release. Rory Stewart shares his personal experience attending the event, highlighting the transformative impact on participants and the potential for reducing recidivism.

• Quote [23:53]:
  Rory Stewart: "Prisoners engaging with football clubs have shown remarkable improvements in optimism, mental health, and confidence. Programs like these are essential for reducing reoffending rates, which currently stand at 50-70% for certain categories."

Alastair Campbell underscores the economic and social benefits of such programs, arguing that the government's insistence on strict financial metrics hinders funding for effective rehabilitation initiatives. He advocates for a more generous and imaginative approach to prison reform, citing successful models in the U.S. as examples.

• Quote [26:03]:
  Rory Stewart: "Modern governments often miss the mark by focusing narrowly on cost-benefit analyses, neglecting the intrinsic value of rehabilitation. Providing supportive environments in prisons leads to better societal outcomes post-release."

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Member Questions and Lighthearted Exchanges

Towards the end of the episode, Campbell and Stewart address questions from TRIP Plus members, blending serious political discourse with lighthearted banter. Topics include personal reflections on the podcast’s evolution, political shifts within the hosts, and even a playful debate on the proper way to eat a chocolate digestive biscuit.

• Quote [36:47]:
  Roger (TRIP Member): "Do you eat chocolate digestives with the chocolate facing up or down?"
  Alastair Campbell: "I dunk it in tea and leave it long enough for the chocolate not to melt and the biscuit not to break."

The hosts also humorously discuss potential political alignments and party endorsements, reflecting on their own political journeys and the importance of maintaining ideological integrity amidst shifting party dynamics.

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Conclusion

In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart provide a nuanced examination of the U.S.'s strategic positioning vis-à-vis China, drawing on historical and contemporary examples to illustrate the complexities of international alliances and power dynamics. Their discussion extends to domestic issues such as populism, public service renationalization, and prison rehabilitation, offering listeners a multifaceted perspective on both global and local politics. The inclusion of member questions and personal anecdotes adds depth and relatability, making the episode both informative and engaging.

Listeners gain valuable insights into the importance of alliances, the pitfalls of unilateral policies, and the need for comprehensive approaches to social justice and public service management. The episode underscores the interconnectedness of global and domestic policies, urging thoughtful consideration and strategic action in the face of evolving political landscapes.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Alastair Campbell [02:43]:
  "China is the China that's grown to the extent that it has. There's no doubt that after the tariff thing, Xi Jinping went on tours to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, showing America's hubris in thinking it can do everything alone."

• Rory Stewart [04:59]:
  "Kurt Campbell wrote that America's complacency and overestimation of unilateral power, especially under Trump, is underestimating China's ability to counter it."

• Alastair Campbell [12:51]:
  "Poland's effective mobilization against PiS, inspired by leaders like Donald Tusk, serves as a blueprint for resisting populist erosion of democratic institutions."

• Rory Stewart [15:45]:
  "Whether it's the private or public sector, substantial funding is required. Public renationalization would either increase water bills or taxes to cover the debts and necessary investments."

• Alastair Campbell [18:11]:
  "Public demand for clean waterways and beaches surpasses narrow economic metrics. The government needs to incorporate national narratives and values into policy decisions."

• Rory Stewart [23:53]:
  "Prisoners engaging with football clubs have shown remarkable improvements in optimism, mental health, and confidence."

• Roger (TRIP Member) [36:47]:
  "Do you eat chocolate digestives with the chocolate facing up or down?"

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's key discussions, supporting insights, and memorable exchanges, providing a clear and engaging overview for both regular listeners and newcomers alike.

Transcript

[Alistair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

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[Rory Stewart]

Welcome to the Restless Politics Question Time.

[Alistair Campbell]

With me, Rory Stewart and me, Alistair Campbell.

[Rory Stewart]

First one for you, Alistair Han, is Trump underestimating the ability of China to invest in new alliances at a time that the US Seems intent on breaking theirs?

[Alistair Campbell]

Yes, is the short answer. This is what's incredible. So I think they're underestimating China on so many levels. It really came home to me, that clip that J.D. vance did where he talked about, you know, we're getting peasants in China to manufacture things, and we're now buying from peasants. And I think there is that sort of mindset that thinks China's the China of old rather than the China that's. That's grown to the extent that it has. And there's no doubt that China, we saw this immediately after the whole tariff thing, when Xi Jinping went on that tour, went to Vietnam, went to Cambodia, went to Malaysia. And, you know, we've got Alex Younger on leading on Monday, former head of MI6. And he makes the point, and this is the point. Kurt Campbell, who you remember, who was expert in China, and he was sort of, I think, partly responsible for the Obama pivot to Asia. And he's always making the point that America's strength has been built through its alliances. And I think there is this kind of hubris and arrogance that America can do everything on its own. So I think that's a very, very, very wise question.

[Rory Stewart]

I was talking yesterday to a senior Indonesian. So Indonesia, obviously fourth largest population in the world and mattering more and more as its economy grows. And I was saying, how's this playing out for you? And he said, well, how do you think it's playing out? You've got one potential partner who's sending you flowers, telling you you're wonderful, and another partner who's slapping tariffs on you, abusing you, insulting you. Do you think that Indonesia is going to look more to China and the US and then on your point on technology and this idea that they're peasants, he described going to visit Yangshang Port. So he'd arrives, seen Shanghai, and somebody said, forget about Shanghai. Go and see this. It's an artificial island that China built 40 kilometers into the sea. There's a bridge that they built in two and a half years, going to it with wind turbines all the way around. He arrives, and he literally said he only saw two people on the entire island. It's one of the biggest ports in the world. The person who opened the gate and saluted as he went in, and the person who saluted on the way out.

[Alistair Campbell]

And the rest was all robotics. Exactly. Wow. I've just Googled a thing that Kurt Campbell wrote recently. The greatest risk this is to America is not declinism, thinking everything's gonna get worse. It is complacency. If anything, the United States, particularly in the era of Trump, risks overestimating unilateral power and underestimating China's ability to counter it. And a new approach to alliances is the only viable way the United States can build sufficient scale on its own. And if you think about the way he's handled his alliances so far, tariffs has damaged his relationship with pretty much every country in the world. Canada, even on the day of the election, he was doing his 51st state nonsense. And Polyvre, the Conservative who's seen as the pro Trump guy, came out and literally said, stay out of our election. Australia, uk, these traditional alliances, he's not seeking to strengthen them. And China, as you say, I mean, you go to Africa a lot, go to anywhere in Africa at the moment you feel China's power.

[Rory Stewart]

We've got two leading interviews, one just out with Atul Gawande, which is an extraordinary account for somebody who's right at the top of USAID about the way that Trump's dismantling of development aid has dismantled all these deep relationships around the world. And a second one coming out next Monday with Sir Alex Younger, which is an interview with the former head of MI6, which looks at, well, what Younger says is one of the big problems, which is, he said Trump's gone so bad that people are almost seriously seeing China and the US as kind of equal.

[Alistair Campbell]

And he does warn against that.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. However bad Trump's US is, it's not China and we've got to be serious about where we're going. Quick question for me before we go to a documentary that we've got a good question from Sami and James Kearney on. What did you think of Atul Gawande?

[Alistair Campbell]

I thought it was great. Yeah. Really good. Very smart, very clever, very passionate. I found the most powerful part of the interview for me was where he was talking about usaid, because it just. It's horrific when you see Trump. Well, Trump doesn't even care anymore because it's the past. It's a previous episode of the reality TV show, but Elon Musk constantly saying, no, lives are being lost, and there's a guy telling you lives are going to be lost in their millions because of the cuts to usaid. So, no, really good. I hope people listen to that. And I think you're right. Alex Younger's just got such a great kind of strategic mind and. And a frame and all this stuff. So, so the documentary. I don't know if you've seen this yet, Roy, but Sam, we've got lots of questions on it. James Kearney, great to hear your reflections on Louis Theroux's new BBC documentary about Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Sami. Israeli settler ideology used to be relatively fringe. Now we even have an Israeli cabinet minister who is himself a settler, and that's Ben gvir, who's in this documentary. Have you seen this?

[Rory Stewart]

No, I haven't. Tell us about it.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, it's really, really, really worth you watching. I mean, the combination of the book that I read, I mentioned last week, this German book, War Without End, and this documentary, it's. I just think it's getting harder and harder to be in the position that you and I have tried to be in throughout, which is to kind of be fair and reasonable about both sides. What you see in Louis Theroux's documentary is, and I saw the Daily Mail having a go saying he's only showing one side of the story. He's talking to the settlers. He's deep in with these settlers and he gets in with these people who are really absolutely the heart of the settler movement. And I mean, just to give you some example of some of the things that they say, there's an extraordinary scene where he goes to the border. They're looking at Gaza, you can see sort of smoke coming up and there's a rabbi who basically says, you can never make peace with savages. And I think he calls them these camel riders. There's another guy who's from Texas, moved to Israel when he was 16 and who says, and Louis Theroux uses the word Palestinian. And he said, I'm not comfortable with that word because they don't really exist. They're clear, these people who, you know, represent a pretty strong. And they're surrounded by, protected by Israeli soldiers and they basically want to wipe Palestinians off the face of the earth.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I shall watch it. Let's have a good discussion.

[Alistair Campbell]

Let's talk about it next week.

[Rory Stewart]

Discussion about it next week. But that does sound very, very worth looking at.

[Alistair Campbell]

Here's one for you.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Adrian, what lessons can be learned from Poland's fight back against right wing populists since the Law and Justice Party took power in 2016? And maybe related to that, Akhil Kumar, how can labor beat reform's rapidly growing populist moment? Well, certainly looking at Poland is not a bad thing to do.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. And so this is something that my great hero, Gerald Knauss, from esi.

[Alistair Campbell]

He interviewed me last week for his book.

[Rory Stewart]

And you liked him?

[Alistair Campbell]

I did like him a lot. And he's writing a book with his daughter about enlargement.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, he's a real. I mean, just to do a little plug for Gerald. He is absolutely amazing. He has lived all over the world and with young children, put them in a government school in Turkey. So these young girls, five or six, learnt fluent Turkish, quite tough transition for them, and then moved them to France, then they had to learn French and in Germany and British.

[Alistair Campbell]

I've got to say to you, Rory, I did say to you at one point, presumably you hear Rory describing you, you and David Gork as his hero. Every single week, he said, no, I don't listen every week.

[Rory Stewart]

You should listen to this, because esi, his think tank, has done a lot of very, very detailed work on Poland, did a great report on it. But basically, the story in Poland to remind people is that in 2015, this far right populist party was Law and Justice Party, Law and Justice Party, and in particular, under their Minister of Justice, tried to dismantle the judiciary. And they set about it, firstly by taking on the constitutional courts, then taking on the prosecutors, and essentially tried to say that they would take over the appointments of judges and any judges who did not favor them, they would discipline, fire, get out of their jobs. And there was an amazing fight back. And the two bits of the fight back are Polish judges themselves, who were very, very courageous, about a dozen of them, who, despite the fact they were being threatened attacks and eviscerated in the media, losing their jobs, stood up, said, we are not accepting these rulings from judges who've been appointed by the government. And we're appealing to the European Court of Justice, even though we've been told not to.

[Alistair Campbell]

America, take note.

[Rory Stewart]

And on the other hand, the European Union, which actually the European Court of Justice did quite a brave ruling, it said that interfering in the appointment of judges, putting in basically political apparatchiks as your judges, is undermining the European legal system. And Europe then withheld billions of euros of funding. And this story is really interesting because it's part of the story of how Donald Tusk came in, because it turned out that actually 80% of polls are pro EU, and the EU wasn't just a kind of judicial mechanism. It's an idea. It's an idea. And polls in the end preferred the idea of Europe, many of them, to the idea of this far right nationalism. The problem for Trump, of course, or the problem with Trump's America is that you don't have that idea of Europe around it. You don't have a European Court of Justice. You just got a Supreme Court. Few people stuffed now increasingly with people who are more sympathetic towards Trump. And it's very difficult to work out how even very brave American judges are going to be able to challenge his attempts to, well, talk about the kind of stuff France is talking about, not implementing their decisions, deliberately flouting them, impeaching them, undermining them.

[Alistair Campbell]

One of the most alarming social media posts last week was this American judge who was arrested and Kash Patel, the head of the FBI published a photo of her with being taken away by FBI agents in handcuffs with the message nobody's above the law. Could have added brackets apart from the president so that it sort of feels back to the point about feels very kind of 1930s Germany. That does, I think, what's really interesting about Poland. And it'd be great. Donald Tusk doesn't do many interviews and he doesn't do much foreign media. Be great to get him on the podcast. If there's anybody who works at Donald to listening, please can we get him because we both think he's really inspiring. And the other thing that's really important in that, because what's happened in some of these populous countries, Hungary being a good example, is the parties coming to the opposition parties coming together and thinking that if we all come together, we can defeat them. The trouble with that is you've got people looking at them. One, the state controlled media takes you apart, whereas Tusk handled that really, really well. But secondly, people are looking at you and thinking, well, hold on a minute. This coalition, you've got sort of weird kind of far right people over there who just aren't with the Law and Justice Party because there's some particular obviously don't like. And then you've got the sort of leftists and the environmentalists over here and where's the kind of thread what the Poles did was they maintained the opposition parties but they all then kind of the public sort of worked it out. And I think they gave the Polish people a lot of kind of credibility in their understanding of what was going on. Added to which they campaigned like hell they really campaigned. Tusk, he had this bus that went thousands of miles and they also, they had these big demonstrations, demonstrations for democracy. And they were getting towards the end, they were getting like, you know, into seven figures of people coming out on the street. So they mobilized. So back to the point you were making about Canada and Australia. When people think there's something really important happening, and you said the same about Corbyn against Theresa May. When people think there's something really important in election, people will turn out, but you've got to provide that mobilization. So listen, there's lots of lessons in Poland now. We know we have a lot of MPs who listen, but it's very nice that some of them ask questions. Here's one from Clive Lewis, Labour MP. 114,000 people, he says, have just signed a petition demanding public ownership of our water, with 82% in favor. Meanwhile, private water companies have paid out 78 billion in dividends since privatization, even as they rack up debts of over 60 billion debts which didn't exist before privatization. When you add all this together, isn't it finally time for the government to bring water back into public ownership so it can be run in the public interest rather than for private profit? So thank you for that. Clive, where are you on water renationalization?

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I guess here, rather strangely, I'm a little sympathetic with Rachel Reeves, because the problem that Clive Lewis is kind of skirting around is that all those financial problems which those companies are facing would become the government's problems. So the government, if it took over these companies, is suddenly going to have to find tens of billions of pounds to cover their debt. And the investment in the public water network is hundreds of billions of pounds worth of investment. And at the moment, the system that's been put in place is that that's financed through the private sector. And of course, these private water companies for a long time had a very good story. I mean, it's become really bad recently with terms of water. But traditionally the story was that they'd come in and it was costing about a pound for water and a pound for water out, and it was more reliable than it was when the government ran it, and they'd put all these billions of pounds into investment. It's now clear that the model is really broken. But ultimately, in a sense, it doesn't really matter whether it's the private sector or the public sector. Somebody's got to find a lot of money. And in the end, that's either going to come from your water bill or it's going to come from your taxes.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, I mean, I think of all the privatizations, water is the one that people, maybe railways as well, but people feel has gone the worst in terms of where we are now. And interestingly, I mentioned yesterday on the main podcast, main episode, I mentioned this report from Persuasion UK about so called reform. Curious Labour voters. Interestingly, this issue of water and sewage in our waterways was right up there in terms of what they really, really, really care about. And again, that goes maybe against. Because what we think of when we look at reform is that they're sort of, you know, obsessed with net zero, climate change isn't real, all this sort of stuff. Whereas actually so these voters, this, this. So where I've got a lot of sympathy with Clive is on the politics of this. Labor having rightly campaigned a lot on this in opposition, Fergal Sharkey leading that sort of great water campaign, sewage campaign. I don't, I know Steve Reed is doing stuff in relation to water, but it's one of those issues that is so complicated that outwith the kind of sloganizing and the campaigning messages, very difficult to know what the government will actually do.

[Rory Stewart]

And it's also a classic one where the treasury and Rachel Reeves and the kind of technocratic solution is looking at a particular, very narrow cost benefit model, right? So I remember I was the water minister, so I used to do this stuff for a year. What would happen is you'd say, well look, you know, 85% of our beaches that are an adequate Standard, for which Reed 15% have bits of poo floating around, right? Then the treasury says, yes, but it will cost tens of billions of pounds to clean them up. Right? And this number of people use those beaches a year. And this particular beach you're pointing out, you know, according to our figures, only gets 500 people going around. So this is something that is very typical of a problem in modern government, which is that narrow economic calculus of the sort that treasury does on cost benefit doesn't capture the fact that actually maybe the public would be prepared to pay quite a lot of money to not have poo floating around on their beaches. And an economist saying, well, yes, but if only 400 people use the beach and the cost of cleaning up the beach is X million, then you're paying. The Salem budget is missing something really, really important about our values, about the kind of country we want to be. And of course looking at Europe where they seem to be able to do this stuff and Europeans seem to be prepared to pay and to manage it.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, well, I can remember back in the day when we were in government and Britain was in the European Union, that one of the things that we used to track on our famous grid at a lower level of communication was regular updates about beach cleanliness and people. It really mattered. And I think if an economist says only 400 people use that beach and 30,000 use that beach. Nobody cares. They want to know that our waterways are clean, our beaches are clean. And that should be. I talked yesterday about a national narrative that should be part of it. So I think Clive may be wrong about the. You're saying he may be wrong about the solution, but that his analysis is spot on. And the politics of this are really, really powerful.

[Rory Stewart]

Thank you. Clive Lewis, who's occasionally a controversial figure in the Labour Party, as some listeners will know.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, he's, I'd say he's on the left, as they say, he's on the.

[Rory Stewart]

Left, but he can be an extraordinary, charismatic speaker.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, he's very, very good. Very, very good communicator. Yeah. Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Let's take a quick break.

[Alistair Campbell]

Welcome back.

[Rory Stewart]

Foreign.

[Alistair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

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[Alistair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

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[Alistair Campbell]

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[Rory Stewart]

That's nordvpn.com restispolitics completely risk free with their 30 day money back guarantee. The links in the episode description.

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[Alistair Campbell]

Racist apologies. Question time with me, Alistair Campbell.

[Rory Stewart]

And with me, Rory Stewart.

[Alistair Campbell]

Right, Simon, from the Clink, and we know the Clink. These are inside prisons, restaurants that are run by the prisoners. The question is this, how realistic is it to expect radical change? Following David Gawke's sentencing review. That's your hero. Former Justice Secretary is doing a sentencing review of the government. The government has been admirably progressive, says Simon, in its approach to justice, with the appointment of people like Lord Timson as prison's minister. But what will it take to create a justice system that focuses much on rehabilitation as much as punishment? And of course, Simon, what you won't know is that last night Rory and I were at an event and David Gaut was sitting there. So was Nadeem Zahawi.

[Rory Stewart]

We were.

[Alistair Campbell]

And it was for the wonderful charity run by David Dean, ex of Arsenal fame, called the Twinning Project, at which clubs, football clubs, trained prisoners to become.

[Rory Stewart]

Coaches and groundskeepers and other things.

[Alistair Campbell]

Exactly. They then, when they get out of prison, and there were four people who made these fabulous speeches last night about how their lives have been transformed by this project. So it was kind of. It was rehabilitation in action.

[Rory Stewart]

It was. It was amazing. And they've done research with Oxford University, and it's very, very clear that prisoners engaging with football clubs has a really positive impact on their optimism, their mental health, their confidence that their life's going to be better when they're out of prison. And the problem underlying this, that, you know, you've seen and that I saw a lot when I was working as the Prisons Minister, is that reoffending rates 50%. Half of prisoners leave and reoffend in certain categories, it's up to nearly 60, 70% reoffending. And as they were pointing out, the cost of keeping somebody in prison is more than paying for an Eton school fee. It's £50,000 a year. So it's good for society. Above all, that's the most important thing. Victims of crime, right? You don't want people reoffending, criminals coming out, committing more crime. We've got to be sympathetic towards the public. But it's also true that we need to think about the interests of prisoners. And it's a difficult thing to talk about, but it's a form of shared suffering. Suffering the victim. But it's also true that prisoners are often, as I think we said before, from very, very poor backgrounds. You know, something like when I was the prisoner's Minister, I think 40% of prisoners had been in care compared to 2% of the general population. That tells you something like 20 times as many as the general population. Almost half of them have been in carers children. Almost the same number have been excluded from school. Nearly half had mental health issues. And there's something, again, you know, this relates a little bit to your conversation about Clive Lewis, about the way the Government counts things. So one of the problems is there's very, very little government money to support charities working in prisons, because the treasury does this calculation where they say, unless you can do a randomized control trial proving exactly how much money you're saving through stopping reoffending and compare it to alternative treatments, etcetera, we won't support it.

[Alistair Campbell]

It was interesting last night. There was people from Oxford University and Greenwich University who had tracked and monitored the rehabilitative effects of this scheme. And it was incredibly positive.

[Rory Stewart]

It's incredibly positive. But the government won't fund it. And I've seen this again and again.

[Alistair Campbell]

The clubs don't really fund it.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, that's really weird. Let me just finish on the government and then to the clubs, because you'll understand the clubs, I mean, just on the government, I think they're missing something really important, which is actually providing environments in prison which are safe, decent, clean, nonviolent, where prisoners can begin to sort themselves out and think about getting jobs and sort out their mental health, is good for the prisons, good for the way that we run prisons and it's good for society afterwards. And the bar which the government's holding, this very narrow numerical bar, is really foolish and the government should actually. Even American prisons are much more imaginative and generous. You know, they support in small ways because the charities will put up a lot of the money themselves, but they'll support in small ways, you know, dogs coming to prisons for prison, spend time with dogs, training courses, et cetera. We're just not doing enough of this stuff. And that brings us to the question to you, which is why on earth are the Premier League clubs not putting the money to get this into 100 clubs? 100 prisons, all the prisons of the country, basically, would cost only £750,000 a year. That's massive. Nothing for these clubs.

[Alistair Campbell]

The reason we were at this event is because it was a fundraiser. Why is a fundraiser? Because they need money. Why do they need money? Because they don't get money from the government. And I was genuinely shocked. I've known about this scheme for ages and I've been involved in it at different places. And some of the clubs do fund it. Some of them. Some of the bigger clubs do fund it. And it's literally such a tiny part of their budget, but a lot of the clubs don't. So the reason the money was being raised so that clubs who are currently part of the scheme, it shows that the charity can pay the clubs to be involved, and they're not paying to make a profit, but pay them for the coaches, for the kit and all this sort of stuff. And I just thought, God almighty. So. But one of the kids, for example, one of the young men who spoke, there's one guy from Lincoln who had really quite a long sentence and he talked so movingly about how he had developed as a person through discovering that he could do something, be respected for it. And he's now a coach. There's another guy there who's now. He's now a coach. He's part of the coaching staff at Queen's Park Rangers through their relationship with Wormwood Scrubs. So you just think, I know. And I said, you know, when we were doing our thing, you and I spoke. And then Arsene Wenger and Ian Wright did a turn. Alistair McGowan, the impersonator. Be honest, Rory. How many of the football managers that he did did you recognize?

[Rory Stewart]

Very, very few. Very few.

[Alistair Campbell]

You got Klopp.

[Rory Stewart]

This was actually a nightmare evening for me and a perfect evening for Alastair because we're there, like with Arsene Wenger and Ian Wright and all these kind of amazing celebrities like Henry Winter and all these people there. And I'm sitting there with my book, which I think was on the Peasants Revolt.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, you were sitting, reading a book over dinner. Yeah. I thought that was a bit much.

[Rory Stewart]

Just finish a sort of small tribute to David Dean. I mean, I turned up because this man, David Dean, who set up Premier League, was absolute central in Arsenal, has been a really good friend to me. He's the most incredibly charming, caring person, sends me whatsapps go out for dinner. But I suddenly realized I was in a room where 350 people were a good friend of David Dean. He is an extraordinary, charismatic individual.

[Alistair Campbell]

I didn't realize, by the way he said when he did his speech, setting the evening up, that he got the idea from one of our rest is colleagues, Robert Peston, who set up speakers for schools, which I'm also on because Basically, private schools don't struggle to get good speakers. Robert set up speakers for schools, for people to go into state schools. And David Dean did loads, and he said that he just got the bug and then thought maybe he could do this in prisons as well, because he.

[Rory Stewart]

Was looking for a captivity.

[Alistair Campbell]

Captive audience. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But he. He's been to every prison in the.

[Rory Stewart]

Country, and some of them twice.

[Alistair Campbell]

Every prison.

[Rory Stewart]

Well over 100 prisons.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah. And he's trying to get every prison linked to a football club so that some of the prisoners, as they end that towards the end of their sentences, can train to be football coaches. And we saw last night, three guys, one woman, who are now leading completely different lives. And it was just really, really moving. So I think David's a great guy. And. And my God, Wenger's in good shape.

[Rory Stewart]

Looking good, isn't he? And we. And he. And the hair. We gotta get him on the show.

[Alistair Campbell]

We have gotta get him on the show. Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Right. Paddy from Dublin, could you discuss and compare what is currently happening in the US with Mao's Cultural Revolution in China? My mother actually asked me the same question. So my mother was. My father actually served in China during the Cultural Revolution. He was our man in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. And my mother noticed this. It does feel a bit like that. Yeah, it is. You know, when. When they start talking about going after professors, going after the media, going after culture, going after words, judges. It's a sort of Cultural Revolution feeling, isn't it?

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, absolutely. And also this idea that you can't really criticize. I was talking to somebody the other day who has. And I don't know, you've been going backwards and forwards to the United States. I've not been since we were there for the. The election. But I wonder if I would get in. You know, if you think about the things I say on the podcast about Trump, things I say on social media. So I was talking to somebody who says the next time they're going, they're taking a burner phone because they've heard too many stories of their colleagues who are being taken to one side. And the border control people are going through their phones to check whether they said this or said that. There was the story of these two German girls who were. I think they were in custody for over a week, and it was because of stuff they had on their phone about Palestine.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah. It's extraordinary, isn't it? Because it's also a government that keeps. Trump's government keeps talking about free speech.

[Alistair Campbell]

You cannot criticize Trump. But at the same time, you have to pretend that you're a great believer in free speech. We really must get on to do this Vance series because I do think he is a driver of more of this than we think. I think Trump is a vessel in some of this stuff and Vance is the driver. So should we line up a bit?

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, go on then.

[Alistair Campbell]

Do you know, Roy, this is our 400th rest. His not even counting leading. We've now done 400. I didn't know that, but one of our eagle eyed listeners did. So, Gemma trip member, happy 400th episode says Gemma. What are your highlights and lowlights from the last few years of doing the podcast? What have you learned? Favorite moments, challenges along the way?

[Rory Stewart]

I was really, really naive when I came into this.

[Alistair Campbell]

No. Yeah, you, naive, Roy. I can't believe it.

[Rory Stewart]

So you, you contacted me very kindly in Jordan to ask me if I'd come on this podcast with you. I thought, you know, do a podcast, be fun. You know, we'll do five or six episodes. I didn't really have any idea at all what this thing was. I just thought it'd be funny to do what seemed to me like a few radio shows with you.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

And it's now become this enormous thing. And then final thing for me is I've been through a journey. I honestly got a bit sort of miserable probably nine months ago, because I thought, well, in the end, can I really keep on sort of making minor grumbles about Keir Starmer's government and Alistair's going to be a bit pro and I'm going to be a bit anti and I'll be like, you know, I'm a bit underwhelmed by Bridget Philipson's new education policy every week. And since Trump's come in, it's a horrible thing to say. My motivation's gone up. I'm working much harder. I'm doing far more research.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah, I've noticed you've worked a bit harder than you used to. Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

No, but it's true. I'm absolutely loving it. And the real privilege for me is that I literally get to spend two days calling the smartest people in the world and being educated about Ukraine or Poland or Taiwan or whatever it happens to be. I mean, admittedly, they're saints and I don't know whether at some point they're going to tell me to bog off.

[Alistair Campbell]

I started off exactly the same thing. I thought at the start we'd just see how it went. Had no plan, no real. Normally, I Like to strategize. I didn't really have a strategy at all. I liked when we stumbled upon disagree agreeably as a sort of motif. And I think, Gemma, one of the things that surprised me is I think it has changed the way that I debate politics more generally. I'm much less likely to fly off the handle than I used to be. I mean, you know, I think if I'm in a studio with there are certain politicians, I can still, you know, flare up very, very quickly. But generally, I think that has been interesting. I've definitely changed and that may just be age, I don't know.

[Rory Stewart]

I've also loved leading, really loved doing those interviews and even some of the quite obscure people. This week we've got Atul Gawande out and you talked about, you know, in fact, he's interesting on usaid. I also thought he was an extraordinary soul. I mean, sometimes these people just are the most wonderful human beings. I love the way he talked about how you have to say yes to everything until you're 40 and then no to everything after you're 40. I loved the way that he talked about his own mission in life, that, you know, his vision of helping bring longer, better lives to people, not just in the U.S. but throughout the world. And the way that everything he does podcasts, to documentaries, to teaching. So often those leading interviews, not all of them, but often I come away thinking, oh, goodness, what an extraordinary person.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, you know, yesterday I was doing. The comedian Catherine Ryan has a podcast about your real. I don't know, you have to do a blood test and then they tell you how. How old you really are inside your body. I'm not allowed to reveal my. My real age until the podcast out. But so it was at Bauer Media, and on the way in, I was with somebody from the. From Random House, and on the way in, a woman stopped me and said, oh, I've just been listening to your podcast. Oh, that's nice. Thank you very much. Da, da, da. I then walked up the stairs and the next person we met was literally listening to the podcast. And I know you find it difficult. One thing I've really noticed about you is you. You find it quite difficult when people confront you in public to say things about the podcast. Having had quite a few years where most of my encounters in the street were quite unpleasant.

[Rory Stewart]

It's quite nice.

[Alistair Campbell]

I quite like it. Yeah, yeah. So people should feel free. Anyway. No, it's gone very, very well. So there we are.

[Rory Stewart]

Thank you to listeners and a huge thank you to everybody. I mean, whether you're a member or whether you're not a member. Thank you. Because obviously this only works because of you. Because the questions that you've put in. And I'm going to finish with a final one from a Trip plus member. Roger, very important but divisive question for Rory and Alastair. Do you eat chocolate digestives with the chocolate facing up or down?

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, one of the most. One of the. I was going to say one of the most irritating Rory Stewart habits is the fact that you are addicted to snacks. And he's. He's now holding up. What is it? A Costa.

[Rory Stewart]

Costa Millionaires shortbread.

[Alistair Campbell]

Millionaires shortbread.

[Rory Stewart]

I mean, salted caramel and white chocolate drizzle. It's only got about 30 ingredients, I'd say, on the back.

[Alistair Campbell]

Okay, and how many of them have got the.

[Rory Stewart]

The letter E since we left the European Union?

[Alistair Campbell]

None of them. Well, the reason. I think the reason for this question is the chocolate digestive. I read this the other day is a hundred years old. That's pretty impressive. Chocolate digestive. And so I didn't even know this was a debate, but apparently it's a real debate. Some people eat their chocolate digestive with the chocolate up.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, I obviously do it with the chocolate up. Do you what we eat with the chocolate down? You crazy? You don't want to see the chocolate?

[Alistair Campbell]

No, I. Well, I dunk it in tea. I dunk it in tea and I just leave it long enough for the chocolate not to melt and for the biscuit not to break. That's a skill that I've developed over the last 67 years.

[Rory Stewart]

That's for that. That is a skill. No, no, I definitely want it. I mean, remember, I've been listening to Gulliver's Travels, which if people want an audiobook. I mean, it's amazing 18th century prose. But of course, famously, the big fight in Lilliput is about a witch. End of the egg you. You break, which leads to basically thermonuclear war between these two kingdoms.

[Alistair Campbell]

So we had a trivial question about biscuits, which you have taken us into. Thermonuclear war. My last question, also pretty light, that this one Steven Monroe, trip member, who I know he's the man on the Coron ferry in the Highlands, but it's a very funny question. As a longtime listener and trip member, I think it's interesting as the main parties move to the right, you guys seem to be moving further left. Let's deal with that one first. Then we'll go into the second part of his question. Do you think you're moving to. I think I am moving to the left a bit, yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah, I, I, I am. Basically, if I could get over Ed Davies antics, I'm becoming more and more kind of Lib Dem in my biases. I remain a Conservative in the sense I, you know, all the stuff we talk about, tradition, army King, landscapes. But I do think that fundamentally the problem I increasingly see in terms of social justice, inequality, not really addressing poverty in our country, not really addressing the homeless, not really addressing prisoners. And I would have loved to see a Labour government come in that put those things central. It would have given me a sense of moral purpose and excitement. And one of the reasons I'm a little underwhelmed, to be honest, is that it does feel a little bit kind of austerity light and not a million miles away from where Cameron's Conservatives were.

[Alistair Campbell]

Well, I think on that, I think when people. This is what I think is going to be the fallout of the local elections. As I said yesterday, I'm really worried that they're going to take the wrong message from the local elections. I think the Labour government's got to be more Labour, not more anything else. Could be more labor and more labor.

[Rory Stewart]

Doesn'T, for my money, many different for me. That doesn't mean necessarily more trade union.

[Alistair Campbell]

No, it means. But it means more social justice, it means more anti poverty, it means more fairness, it means more education, it means.

[Rory Stewart]

More, more of a moral purpose.

[Alistair Campbell]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

You were telling me off last night, being too idealistic. But we need a bit of idealism, right?

[Alistair Campbell]

I love idealism. I wasn't telling you off. I was asked a question. What did it. What was the question?

[Rory Stewart]

It was about whether you could ever make me Prime Minister. And yeah, like not a hope.

[Alistair Campbell]

And I didn't say no, I hope, I just said that. I said that I sometimes worry that your idealism gets in the way of your political trajectory. That's what I said. And I think you'd have to say.

[Rory Stewart]

That'S that may be true.

[Alistair Campbell]

It's not necessarily about thing. Anyway, the second half of the question to close on Stephen, Stephen's question is, is there any chance because we've now allegedly moved to the left, is there chance of you both completing the centrist dad journey by campaigning for the Lib Dems at the next election? An abseiling Alistair and a bungee jumping Rory would be box office.

[Rory Stewart]

Well, we're definitely happy to absel and bungee jump, I think, but not for the lib Dems, of course, I remain concerned about the association of the Lib Dem brand with stunts. YMCA stunts with strange biscuits in his hands, which is what Ed Davy was doing last week.

[Alistair Campbell]

What was he doing?

[Rory Stewart]

He was sort of singing along to YMCA while pulling out strange British biscuits and cakes and singing about Trump's tariffs and eating British. And I just, I still don't guess it. I mean, the answer from the Lib Dems is, again, you're being too idealistic. It really works. I am looking for a party that's gonna appeal to my moral soul. And you're not gonna get there by doing a YMCA digestive dance.

[Alistair Campbell]

No. And I'm not really into that. I do get away with doing it though, because he's trying to get noticed. But he has set himself out as the, the big anti Trump voice of the party leaders, hasn't he? And that's. That is clearly a deliberate strategic decision.

[Rory Stewart]

Yeah.

[Alistair Campbell]

Is that sensible?

[Rory Stewart]

Very sensible. But the way to do it, I would argue now, is to tack to being anti Trump by being serious, which is what actually in the end is Carney's genius. We're talking in a day when Carney's just winning the Canadian election.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Rory Stewart]

Carney did not make anti Trump into a winning strategy by doing little YMCA dances.

[Alistair Campbell]

He was serious. So I think. Right, here's a bit of free advice to Ed Davey. I think a series of very serious heavyweight speeches about the history of the transatlantic relationship.

[Rory Stewart]

Very good. Thank you.

[Alistair Campbell]

See you soon.

[Rory Stewart]

Bye. Bye.

[Al Murray]

Here's the clip we mentioned earlier. Hope you enjoy. But there's this absolutely incredible personal stories right in the heart of it. And I think this is what's so amazing about the Second World War.

[James Holland]

Yes.

[Al Murray]

It's a Titanic event and it's the tectonic plates of history colliding and all those sort of things, isn't it? But in it, there's the most amazing things that happen to individuals. Yes.

[James Holland]

And I think it's important that we don't lose sight of that.

[Al Murray]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Elena Cargan's story is absolutely incredible. So she's a 25 year old interpreter attached to 3rd Shock Army. She's drafted as a music. She wants to go to the front. She's drafted as a munitions worker, then trains as a nurse. And this reminds me of the women of soes. Someone spots that she can speak German.

[James Holland]

That's a really good point.

[Al Murray]

And she's been interrogating prisoners, looking at captured documents. You know, is finding the work incredibly fulfilling.

[James Holland]

You're witnessing history, aren't you, you know, you're.

[Al Murray]

Well, you know what's going on. I mean, that's the other thing. No one knows what's going on.

[James Holland]

She crosses into into Germany at a checkpoint with a large, roughly constructed archway. Archway and sign that says this was the German border. There's fires and some are small, some are larger. No effort to put them out because there's no water.

[Al Murray]

You can't basically, she. She says it was very difficult to find your way through the city map reading because the run out of Russian signs and the German ones have mostly disappeared along with the walls.

[James Holland]

They push on. Streets become increasingly deserted as they close. They get to the government district. Case of bullet zipping and hissing by more walls and buildings, you know, crashing around. They reach Potsdamer Platz and then they kind of set themselves up in a basement of a house owned by a tailor and his family and begin the process of interrogating squealers in inverted comets. So these are captured prisoners. She says, you know, we were interested in just one thing. Where was Hitler?