The Rest Is Politics — “The Battle for the Arctic”
Podcast Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart (with guest Kenneth R. Rosen)
Date: February 13, 2026
Episode Focus:
This episode delves into the intensifying political, strategic, and environmental struggle for control in the Arctic. Alastair Campbell speaks with Kenneth R. Rosen, an American author and Arctic expert, about the region’s growing significance, its resources, global power rivalries, and the ironies at the heart of the battle—especially as climate change accelerates change and competition.
Main Theme and Purpose
Alastair Campbell and Arctic specialist Kenneth R. Rosen explore why the Arctic has become a critical battleground for global powers, examining the region’s geography, climate-driven transformations, mineral wealth, military posturing, and the looming risk of conflict. The conversation uncovers how the thawing Arctic has changed both the environment and the geopolitics, drawing renewed attention from Russia, China, the US, and European powers.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Redefining the Arctic (01:12–03:22)
- Geographical Complexity: Rosen unpacks the loose, often debated definitions of the Arctic, emphasizing that it goes beyond just the strict limits of the Arctic Circle (66° 33' N).
“The Arctic really is this conglomerate...of eight nations who possess either physical territory or littoral coastlines along the Arctic Ocean.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [01:34]
- Perception Matters: Regions like Iceland or the Aleutian Islands in the US might not always fit the strictest geographical definition, but their inhabitants identify as Arctic stakeholders.
- Magnitude and Proximity: The polar vantage point reveals overlapping spheres of interest, with Russian, American, Canadian, and Scandinavian territories converging closely at the pole.
“There are almost these little slivers of shared ocean...there’s really a proximity there that isn’t quite explained in the general populace.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [03:59]
2. Climate Change: The Arctic’s Unintended Opener (04:10–06:45)
- Climate-Driven Access: Thawing permafrost and melting sea ice are unlocking Arctic shipping routes and mineral resources.
“It’s exactly what’s going on...This is a region that is becoming more accessible because of climate change.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [04:53]
- Resource Boom: The region harbors oil, rare earth minerals (lithium, cobalt, graphite), and other valuable resources crucial to technology and energy transitions.
- Strategic Irony: Even leaders publicly skeptical of climate change (e.g., Trump) act on the new opportunities it creates.
“There is this subtle admission by...governments the world over, who are climate deniers to say that this is a region that is becoming more accessible because of climate change.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [04:54]
- Global Implications: Feedback loops like thawing permafrost could amplify planetary warming, with sea ice possibly disappearing in summer by 2030.
3. Strategic Importance and Military Posturing (06:45–09:47)
- Military Chokepoint: The Arctic’s geography allows rapid military deployment across the northern hemisphere.
“You just launch out of Alaska and you reach Russia in four hours. You can get to Norway in six, you can reach the UK in seven.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [06:57]
- Nuclear Stakes: Russia’s Arctic is home to its nuclear arsenal.
“Not just an awful lot...Their entire nuclear force pointing at you, pointing towards UK.” — Kenneth R. Rosen & Alastair Campbell [07:39–07:46]
- Potential Flashpoint: The strategic importance makes the Arctic a potential trigger zone for major-power conflict.
“It’s not impossible that this could become like the trigger point of major conflict between the major powers of the world.” — Alastair Campbell [10:22]
4. Personal Fascination with the Arctic (08:05–10:34)
- Rosen’s Arctic Journey: His fascination began with a journalism stint in Juneau, Alaska, where he experienced the Arctic’s remoteness, community, and existential vastness.
“My center of the universe was altered forever. So I always felt this pull to go back to the Arctic...” — Kenneth R. Rosen [09:30]
5. Inside the Frontline: Svalbard and Western Vulnerabilities (10:34–13:31)
- Svalbard as a Microcosm: Demilitarized, open internationally, home to both Norwegians and Russians, Svalbard is strategically intriguing.
“If I was Russia or China and I wanted to test the strength of NATO, why not invade this place...Put some people here, see what happens.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [11:19]
- NATO and Article 5: Svalbard demonstrates vulnerabilities in the alliance—would an incursion truly trigger mutual defence?
- Western Neglect: Nordic and North Atlantic locales like the Faroes and Greenland are often overlooked in wider security discourse.
6. Russia’s Arctic Advantage (13:31–15:34)
- Biggest Player: Russia has massively invested in Arctic military infrastructure—icebreakers, reopened bases, missile tests.
“Putin is the reigning power in the Arctic in part because of their equipment, but also because they’ve spent the last 10, 15 years opening up...air bases and staffing them.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [15:01]
- Western Lag: The US and allies are playing catchup, just now recognizing Russian Arctic dominance.
7. The Trump Factor & American Blind Spots (15:34–18:48)
- Trump’s Greenland Gambit: Rosen critiques Trump’s enthusiasm for military development in Greenland, given US neglect of Alaska.
“I don’t think he has a valid argument because of the 1951 accord...we haven’t done what we could do in Alaska, the US could do in Alaska.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [15:54]
- Alaskan Infrastructure Shortfalls: The US lacks modern ports and bases there; resource infrastructure is aging.
“They’re only now considering building a deep water port in Nome...and that project is still 10 years out. Ask the Russians how long...” — Kenneth R. Rosen [17:13]
- Strategic Failure: Compared with Scandinavia and Russia, the US is not treating Alaska as the strategic Arctic territory it is.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Defining the Arctic
“The Arctic is really where people believe the Arctic is.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [02:22]
- On Environmental Irony
“This is coming from a president who refuses to support sustainable energy projects...” — Kenneth R. Rosen [05:06]
- On Russia’s Arctic Dominance
“Putin is saying: I am the boss of the Arctic — and he is.” — Norwegian commander, as quoted by Rosen [13:16]
“He was fawning over this Russian equipment.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [14:28] - On Potential Conflict
“If I was Russia or China and I wanted to test the strength of NATO, why not invade this place?” — Kenneth R. Rosen [11:19]
- On US Strategic Gaps
“I thought, wow, all these other countries get it...I can’t even get a train between these major cities because it’s closed during the winter. Aren’t we an Arctic nation? It was embarrassing.” — Kenneth R. Rosen [18:17]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Arctic Definitions and Geography: 01:12–03:22
- Climate Change’s Role: 04:10–06:45
- Strategic and Military Dimensions: 06:45–09:47
- Rosen’s Personal Connection: 08:05–10:34
- Svalbard & NATO Vulnerabilities: 10:34–13:31
- Russian Arctic Power: 13:31–15:34
- US/Trump Focus/Misplaced Priorities: 15:34–18:48
Tone & Language
The tone throughout is conversational, analytical, and occasionally wry. Campbell and Rosen balance grave strategic themes with personal stories and moments of light humor:
- “Well, Alistair, you’re crazy. Okay? So that’s different than being obsessed.” — Rosen, gently ribbing Campbell’s love of cold swims [10:01]
Summary
This episode spotlights the Arctic’s rapid transformation into a hotbed of geopolitical competition, driven by environmental change and newly accessible resources. The conversation unpacks how international powers jockey for influence in a region long overlooked by many Western policymakers, even as Russia surges ahead and Western infrastructure lags. Personal anecdotes and on-the-ground insights from Rosen give depth to the geostrategic analysis, underlining why the battle for the Arctic is one of the most consequential—and underappreciated—issues of our time.