Podcast Summary – The So What from BCG
Episode: From the Archive: Winning the Rest of the 20s
Release Date: December 31, 2025
Host: Georgie Frost (A)
Guests: Rich Lesser (B), Global Chair of BCG | Martin Reeves (C), Chair of the BCG Henderson Institute

Episode Overview

This episode revisits BCG’s influential “Winning the 20s” framework, first published before the pandemic in 2019, and explores how business leadership and strategy must evolve amidst seismic shifts in technology, society, and geopolitics. Award-winning journalist Georgie Frost interviews BCG thought leaders Rich Lesser and Martin Reeves about what they got right, what they missed, and the new playbook required for organizations to not only survive but win through the rest of the 2020s.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Revisiting the “Winning the 20s” Predictions

(01:20 – 04:05)

• Purpose of the 2019 Framework:
  The original report aimed to help companies look beyond everyday pressures to spot patterns likely to disrupt business, acknowledging such forecasting is challenging and should provoke wider thinking, not dictate the future.
  • Quote: “If we could look for patterns and spot things that were likely to be important, that could still give business leaders both some insights... but also just a challenge for their own thinking.” – Rich Lesser (01:49)
• Internal Focus:
  The exercise also served to get BCG’s own community thinking and sensitized to possible futures.
  • Martin Reeves: “We wanted to get our people focused on the future... sensitized to what might happen with a point of view.” (02:24)

2. What the Report Got Right

(02:46 – 04:05)

• Resilience as Core Theme:
  Both guests agree the anticipation of organizational resilience proved prescient, given the series of shocks (COVID, Ukraine, tariffs).
  • Quote: “The 2020s have tested resilience on so many fronts... that actually got a lot of play in multiple places.” – Rich Lesser (03:25)
• Rise of China:
  The report correctly identified China's accelerated economic role.
  • Rich Lesser: “We also were pretty active in recognizing that trend [China’s growth] was continuing and maybe in an accelerated way.” (03:55)

3. Directionally Accurate but Underestimated Trends

(04:09 – 05:31)

• Pace of Technological Change:
  • The impact of AI, especially generative (LLMs, ChatGPT), arrived much faster than anticipated, reaching 100 million users quicker than any previous technology.
    • Martin Reeves: “Breathtaking, unprecedented speed.” (04:21)
• Changing Work Environment:
  • The magnitude of the shift to remote/hybrid collaboration was underestimated, as were the growing societal divides.
    • Rich Lesser: “We underestimated the magnitude of that shift.” (04:41)

4. What Was Missed

(05:34 – 06:26)

• Unpredictable Shocks:
  Pandemic, new transformative AI technologies, geopolitical turbulence—none of which could have been predicted explicitly.

  • Martin Reeves: “Who knew just how contentious geopolitics was going to become or that we'd have a major epidemic.” (05:48)

• Series of Continuous Shocks:
  There hasn’t just been one shock, but a succession, demanding constant adaptation.

  • Rich Lesser: “Every time you think, well, we've come through that now it's going to be a bit more stable. Sure enough, something else happens...” (06:26)

5. The Emerging Leadership Playbook for the Rest of the 20s

(07:17 – 11:40)

• Trust as Essential:
  • In an era marked by misinformation, cyber risk, and political complexity, trust with consumers, employees, and stakeholders is now at the core.
    • Rich Lesser: “For a CEO trying to navigate a world... you have how AI is going to transform work... customers dealing with misinformation, cyber risk... I would put so much more emphasis on helping companies navigate the magnitude of change...” (07:28)
• Political & Growth Challenges to End of Decade:
  • Political risk and geopolitical tensions likely to remain; easy growth is gone, requiring growth by innovation and imagination.
    • Martin Reeves: “Political risk is here to stay... the easy part of growth... is less and less available, relatively speaking...” (08:32)
• Sustainability’s Bumpy Road:
  • The social-ecological agenda is politically fraught but likely to rebound in importance.
    • Martin Reeves: “Because of the politicization of business, we've actually seen some definite backpedaling...” (09:27)

6. Balancing Exploitation & Exploration

(09:47 – 12:25)

• Corporate Vitality:
  • Winning companies balance maximizing legacy business (exploit) and robustly seeking what’s next (explore).
    • Rich Lesser: “It’s not a one or the other between exploiting... and exploring for what's next.” (09:51)
• Innovation Trade-offs in a Low-Growth World:
  • The need to “break traditional trade-offs” in innovation—speed, cost, and risk—possibly through AI and new organizational forms.
    • Martin Reeves: “We need more exploration... break the traditional compromises of innovation.” (10:47)
• Co-Ambidexterity:
  • Engaging both companies and customers in mutual exploration journeys, monetizing research that was once only a cost.
    • Martin Reeves: “If you can connect your exploration with your customer's exploration, you can potentially make the process more effective...” (11:43)

7. Leadership, Culture, and Mindset

(13:43 – 17:50)

• Learning at Scale:
  • A “learn-it-all” culture, not “know-it-all,” is vital for adaptability.
    • Rich Lesser: “Most companies are not built to be able to take in new learning...and I've used [Satya Nadella's quote] over and over.” (13:43)
• Mindset Shifts for Leaders:
  • Beyond core values, leaders must embrace new forms of talent, technology, business models, external inspiration.
    • Rich Lesser: “A comfort to embrace technology at a different level...willingness to rethink business models more fundamentally...look beyond the enterprise...” (15:09)
• Culture of Curiosity:
  • Companies must overcome inertia with grassroots curiosity and learning cultures.
    • Martin Reeves: “There has to be some dynamism at the grassroots level. And you might call that a culture of curiosity.” (16:29)
• Resilience & Trust:
  • Strong, authentic trust with both customers and employees is even more crucial in times of rapid change.
    • Rich Lesser: “A focus on resilience...a focus on trust...deepen relationships and strengthen our business.” (16:56)

8. The Employee Perspective & Social Contract

(17:50 – 19:52)

• Building Internal Trust:
  • Employees are anxious about AI and job automation; leaders must be transparent and invest in skill development to earn trust.
    • Rich Lesser: “People are going to be looking for signals... Am I seen as expendable...? Is the company committed to my skill development...?" (18:10)
  • Decisions around transformation must be authentic and honest, to avoid cynicism and disengagement.
• Long-Term Technological Transformation:
  • Real transformation (not just incremental improvements) is not only good business but essential for the employer-employee social contract.
    • Martin Reeves: “The big payoffs is in the company's own long term interest to think about the more transformational elements...” (19:52)

9. Insights on Prediction & Preparedness

(20:27 – 22:48)

• Prediction versus Preparedness:
  • Technology direction is easier to predict than social dynamics. True preparedness, not precision, is what matters.
    • Rich Lesser: “It’s easier to predict where the technology is going than where society is going.” (20:32)
    • Martin Reeves: “Preparedness is entirely possible... It requires that you've thought through the consequences of different scenarios.” (21:20)
• Learning from Reviewing Predictions:
  • “After action reviews” of one’s own forecasting is vital to improved strategy.
    • Rich Lesser: “It's a healthy exercise...to say, well, what did we think was going to happen and how did it play out?" (22:04)

10. Future-Proofing: The ‘Now What?’ for Leaders

(22:48 – 25:58)

• Four Types of Resilience:

  1. Preparedness: Considering a range of possible futures.
  2. Buffering: Balancing efficiency with capacity for shocks.
  3. Rapid Learning: Adapting as conditions unfold.
  4. Reimagination: Using crises as a springboard to rethink the business.
  • Martin Reeves: “Institutionalize resilience...having a playbook, war gaming scripts, make it every bit as important as an industrial SOP.” (23:20)

• Physical Adaptation:

  • With climate risks rising, emphasis on physical resilience (across property, operations, supply chains) is growing.
    • Rich Lesser: “On the climate side we're quite off track... that's going to put much more focus on adaptation and resilience in a physical sense too...” (24:29)

• Other Lasting Priorities:

  1. Explore competitive advantage: Push traditional business boundaries.
  2. Deepen trust: Understand and build trust with every stakeholder.
  3. Embrace AI: Relentlessly focus on AI’s implications and opportunities.

  Rich Lesser: “Being more exploratory...trust...and this embracing of AI that we've talked about throughout, but I just can't highlight enough...” (25:58)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On change acceleration:
  “ChatGPT and Transformer models... fastest to 100 million users of any technology in history.” – Martin Reeves (04:09)
• On leadership evolution:
  “Every time you think...now it's going to be a bit more stable. Sure enough, something else happens..." – Rich Lesser (06:26)
• On learning cultures:
  “Going from a know-it-all culture to a learn-it-all culture.” – Rich Lesser, quoting Satya Nadella (13:43)
• On resilience vs. prediction:
  “Institutionalize resilience... Preparedness, buffering, rapid learning, and reimagination.” – Martin Reeves (23:20)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment Description | |----------|------------------------------------------------------| | 01:20 | Purpose of Winning the 20s framework | | 02:46 | What BCG got right: resilience and China | | 04:09 | Pace of technological and societal shifts | | 05:34 | What was missed: unpredictability & compound shocks | | 07:17 | What changes for predicting the next five years | | 09:47 | Exploration vs. exploitation in innovation | | 13:43 | The power of enterprise learning cultures | | 15:09 | Evolving leadership mindsets and attributes | | 17:50 | Building trust inside organizations | | 20:32 | Lessons from predicting technology vs. society | | 22:55 | Institutionalizing resilience for the future | | 24:29 | Increasing focus on climate and physical adaptation | | 25:58 | Final reflections: trust, exploration, AI |

Conclusion: The “So What” for Leaders

• Resilience (both organizational and physical) is paramount.
• Continuous, broad learning and “learn-it-all” cultures will define winners.
• Trust (with employees, customers, stakeholders) cannot be faked or deprioritized.
• AI and technological exploration isn’t optional—embrace change, don’t just adapt.
• Expect ongoing uncertainty: Preparedness and curiosity are now as vital as efficiency.
• Return to and review predictions: After-action learning is key to navigating change.

This episode is a compelling guide for executives facing an unpredictable world, with practical insights into leadership, culture, and strategy for the fast-shifting landscape ahead.