Belfast on fire

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Story — "Belfast on Fire"

Date: June 11, 2026
Host: Manveen Rana
Reporters/Guests: Constance Kampfner, Oliver Wright, Keir Starmer, Samaya, Oliver Wright

---

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of The Story investigates the aftermath of a violent knife attack in north Belfast that triggered a wave of anti-immigrant riots, escalating political discourse on immigration across the UK. Through on-the-ground reporting and political analysis, the episode explores the human impact of the violence, the community’s response, and the ensuing political debate, particularly in the context of increasing tensions around immigration policy and an upcoming by-election.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Belfast Attack and Immediate Fallout

• Incident Recap:

  • On a quiet Monday night (around 10:30 pm), a violent knife assault occurred in north Belfast, witnessed by local residents ([01:02]-[01:45]). A Sudanese refugee, Hadi Alodid (30), attacked Stephen Ogilvie with a kitchen knife.
  • The attacker was subdued by bystanders with the use of a hurl (sports stick) and police intervention.
  • Quote (Host, [01:45]):

    "A passerby leapt into action... hitting him on the head. Dazed, the attacker drops the knife as others run in to subdue him... before two police officers arrive.”

• Victim Condition:

  • Stephen Ogilvie, local resident, suffered severe injuries, including the loss of his left eye ([06:33]).

• Community Reaction:

  • The attack acted as a catalyst for violent riots, with organized groups calling for "foreigners out" and targeting immigrant families and homes ([04:28]-[07:12]).

---

2. The Human Impact: Voices from the Ground

• Reporter on Scene:

  • Constance Kampfner reported from outside a church where Ugandan women, forced from their homes by mob violence, were finding temporary shelter ([04:28]).

• Testimony – Samaya (Ugandan Carer):

  • Describes life in Belfast as “very peaceful” until the riots.
  • Quote (Samaya, [09:36]):

    "It was a very peaceful place until yesterday. Like it really changed my mind. Like it's, it is just too much. Like maybe it's high time I go home."

  • She witnessed escalating violence: burning bins, cars, petrol bombing houses ([10:03]).
  • Calls police; told to put on her carer’s uniform and not leave. Ultimately rescued by Pastor Jack McKee, after fainting from fear ([10:27]-[11:36]).

• Community Targeted:

  • Rioters specifically targeted families known to be immigrants or minorities, highlighted by local neighbor comments and repeated attacks on the same households ([07:12]-[09:02]).

• Victim’s Family Statement:

  • Condemns the unrest and emphasizes the positive contribution of migrants.
  • Quote (Constance Kampfner, [15:15]):

    "They did not condone the unrest... we've got many migrants who make... a deeply valuable contribution to our country... We do not want this terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility."

---

3. Widespread Unrest and Political Context

• Spread of Violence:

  • Riots included arson, looting, suspension of public transport, and attacks on emergency services. Organized by social media, hundreds gathered, many masked ([12:29]-[13:15]).

• Police and Political Leaders Respond:

  • Chief Constable and politicians vow prosecution and restoration of order.
  • Quote (Keir Starmer, [14:21]):

    "We are united in calling for calm and determined to restore order, support the police and all those on the front line and ensure that justice is done."

• Prior Incidents:

  • Birmingham isn’t unique. Previous protests and riots related to immigration have occurred in Ballymena and Dublin following other violent incidents ([13:19]).

---

4. How the Incident Became a Politicized Event ([18:46]-[34:22])

Political Responses & Escalating Rhetoric

• Oliver Wright (Policy Editor, The Times):

  • Far-right figures like Tommy Robinson rapidly amplified the attack on social media, fueling political messaging ([19:00]).
  • Background: The suspect entered the UK legally as a Sudanese refugee, with the Home Office led at the time by Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, who are now associated with Nigel Farage's Reform party ([20:38]-[21:17]).

• Rise of New Political Actors:

  • The far-right Restore Britain party under Rupert Lowe is now challenging Reform from the right, exacerbating rhetorical competition ([21:17]-[24:02]).
  • Quote (Oliver Wright, [24:02]):

    "Yeah, it's like an arms race, as it were, in terms of sort of rhetoric. And that makes it very difficult for the government to respond."

• Labour’s Balancing Act:

  • Labour Leader Keir Starmer calls for calm but faces limits in engaging deeply in the immigration debate.
  • Stakes are high with the upcoming Makerfield by-election, with right-wing parties splitting the anti-immigrant vote ([25:31]-[26:38]).

• Online Influencers and Foreign Intervention Claims:

  • International political actors (notably Elon Musk and politicians in the US) are mentioned as amplifying tensions on social media, with UK politicians expressing concern about external interference ([27:14]-[28:49]).

• National Security Dimension:

  • Some right-wing politicians cite national security risks of irregular migration, though terrorism experts highlight that most incidents are homegrown, not linked to recent migrants ([28:49]-[29:39]).

• Ongoing Political Pressure:

  • Reducing small boat crossings is a political imperative, directly affecting the fortunes of Reform and Restore ([29:59]). But the complexities of legal vs. illegal migration and ongoing global crises (Sudan) cloud the debate ([31:01]-[32:23]).

• Persistent Volatility:

  • The panel agrees that as long as sensational incidents happen and are politicized, tensions and riots may recur, especially during electoral cycles.
  • Quote (Oliver Wright, [32:44]):

    "The government is at the mercy of events... Something entirely outwit, that can spiral out of control enormously quickly."

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• About the riot’s character:

  • "There was something kind of carnivalesque about it. People were laughing as the bricks were bouncing off the windows."
    — Constance Kampfner ([07:12])

• On bystander intervention:

  • "A passerby leapt into action... hitting him on the head. Dazed, the attacker drops the knife as others run in to subdue him.”
    — Manveen Rana ([01:45])

• Personal trauma:

  • "One of them had been lying on the ground for four hours, totally traumatized."
    — Jack McKee (Pastor, [11:23])

• Victim’s family plea:

  • "We do not want this terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility..."
    — Constance Kampfner, relaying family statement ([15:15])

• On political escalation:

  • "It's like an arms race, as it were, in terms of sort of rhetoric."
    — Oliver Wright ([24:02])

• On the challenge for politicians:

  • "Politicians, I think, of all ilks need to be really cautious about the lessons that they draw from it."
    — Oliver Wright ([33:47])

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:02] — Recap of the knife attack in north Belfast
• [04:28] — Reporter Constance Kampfner begins on-the-ground story
• [06:33] — Details about victim Stephen Ogilvie
• [07:12] — Firsthand description of the riots
• [09:36] — Testimony from Ugandan refugee, Samaya
• [11:12] — Pastor Jack McKee recounts rescuing trapped refugees
• [12:29] — Citywide scale of the rioting
• [13:19] — Context: other recent immigration-related riots
• [15:15] — Statement from victim’s family rejecting anti-immigrant violence
• [18:46] — How the incident rapidly became a political event
• [20:38] — The attacker’s immigration status and political ramifications
• [24:02] — Political parties’ “arms race” of anti-immigrant rhetoric
• [27:32] — Role of foreign political actors and online influencers
• [29:59] — The small boat crisis and political impact on right-wing parties
• [33:29] — Caution about drawing conclusions; police and politicians’ roles

---

Conclusion

“Belfast on Fire” delivers a deeply reported look at how a single violent act rapidly cascaded into widespread unrest, highlighting the complex intersections of community trauma, media-fueled outrage, and political opportunism. With emotionally raw testimony from victims, sober analysis from journalists, and direct addresses from police and politicians, the episode underscores that the UK's immigration debate remains fraught, volatile, and vulnerable to both domestic and international manipulation—making thoughtful political leadership and careful reporting all the more critical.

---

For listeners wanting a comprehensive, balanced, and human-centered understanding of the Belfast riots and their political consequences, this episode is essential.

Transcript

[Wayfair Advertiser]

Hey there, it's Wayfair here, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone. You're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's app when you spot it. A brand new patio set. Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up. Oh, you need a new grill too. Alright, Wayfair's got you covered. With Wayfair's room of choice delivery and fast expert setup on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier. Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app.

[Podcast Host]

Wayfair Every style, Every home, not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time sometimes.

[Oliver Wright]

AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.

[Podcast Host]

From the Times and the Sunday Times. This is the story. I'm Manveen Rahna. Around 10:30pm on Monday night on a quiet residential street in north Belfast, locals were shaken by a series of screams and shouting. Outside, under the street lights, a man could be seen writhing on the ground as an attacker wielding a kitchen knife pinned him down.

[Wayfair Advertiser]

Hurry up.

[Podcast Host]

Already bloodied, the man could be heard shouting what did I do? Help me. While onlookers, unable to tackle the man with a knife, were terrified about what might happen next. Then a passerby leapt into action. Carrying a hull. The wooden stick used in the sport hurling video shows how he runs towards the attacker, hitting him on the head. Dazed, the attacker drops the knife as others run in to subdue him, kicking him and shouting get off. Before two police officers arrive. Seconds later the recording stops. The attacker, a 30 year old Sudanese man, has been charged with attempted murder. But the torch paper had been lit and riots have broken out in Belfast and spread to other parts of the uk with masked men dressed in black shouting foreigners out. So how might the attack in Belfast influence the political debate on immigration? Are people abroad in flaming tensions and has it caught the government on the back foot? The story today the Belfast riots.

[Constance Kampfner]

I am sitting in a car my makeshift podcast studio outside of a church where I've just been speaking to two Ugandan women who've been left homeless after being essentially chased out of their home last night by a mob.

[Podcast Host]

Constance Campfner, Northern reporter for the Times is talking to us from Belfast, where she's covering the story.

[Constance Kampfner]

And I'd say the mood from them was obviously shell shock and for many people in the area, just apprehension, really shock at what happened last night and apprehension at what could still be to come as it starts to get darker

[Podcast Host]

here this evening, Constance, all of this tension comes as a result of that attack on Monday night. You were in court this morning where the alleged attacker, who has been charged with attempted murder, was appearing. Tell us, what do we know about him?

[Constance Kampfner]

So the suspect is a 30 year old Sudanese man, he's called Hadi Alodid. And the Home Office confirmed that he was on leave to remain in the UK until 2028, having been granted refugee status in 2023. Neighbours said that he'd lived in the predominantly Republican area of North Belfast. One said that they'd seen him coming and going, that he seemed like a normal guy, tall, muscly. We couldn't actually see him in court. He appeared on a video link on a tiny screen far away from where the press was sitting. But we could hear that there was an interpreter there translating into Arabic for him. He didn't speak. However, when addressed by the judge, he was representing himself. He'd refused legal representation and bail was refused. The judge deemed that it would be too dangerous to give him bail. So he'll appear again in four weeks when we will hear more about the circumstances around the attack and what do

[Podcast Host]

we know about the victim and how he is.

[Constance Kampfner]

So the victim has been named as Stephen Ogilvie. He's a man in his 40s. He's also understood to be a resident in the area. We know that he sustained really serious injuries. We were told that he'd been rushed to the hospital with serious wounds to his eyes, his face and his back. We now know that he actually lost his left eye in that attack.

[Podcast Host]

Gosh. So awful wounds as a result of that attack. We know tensions have really flared up across Belfast. Just give us a sense of what's been happening in the last day or two.

[Constance Kampfner]

So posts were circulating on social media inviting people to come out onto the streets wearing black and to wear masks. And we were there for the beginning of one of these. Well, what was supposed to be a peaceful protest, but very quickly turned into a riot. And it was about 8pm, about 300 people gathered and before they sort of started marching, they actually said the Lord's Prayer. A woman led them through the Lord's Prayer on a megaphone, you know, giving her thoughts to the victim. But it was only minutes later that they were kind of walking down these Union Jack festooned streets picking out individual houses. So we were there when they started throwing bricks at a house which we believe there was some Romani, a Romani family living in there. We saw a woman's face briefly appear at the window before she retreated. And it was a scene both of tension but also there was something kind of carnivalesque about it. People were laughing as the bricks were bouncing off the windows. They began setting a car on fire. There was some graffiti on a wall just next door that said local houses for local people. And when we went back to that scene this morning, we actually were chatting to some neighbors who said this was the third time that family had been targeted, that they kind of didn't get the message the last two times. And one woman told us, you know, this was the last straw. They were causing us bother and nuisance and, and they needed to get out. So you got the sense that these houses, they were certainly not being picked at random. There was kind of community knowledge about where certain families were living.

[Podcast Host]

And Constance, you said earlier that you're outside a church at the moment where some families, some, some Ugandans are effectively hiding out. What have they told you?

[Constance Kampfner]

So I've just spoken to two women, Samaya and Stella and Samaya, she's been in the UK for three years. She's a student doing a diploma in ad. She's also a full time carer working with older people and vulnerable adults. She said that she's never experienced anything like this since arriving in Belfast. She described it as a very peaceful place.

[Samaya]

It was a very peaceful place until yesterday. Like it really changed my mind. Like it's, it is just too much. Like maybe it's high time I go home.

[Constance Kampfner]

She said that last night she watched as the protest started peacefully but very, very quickly escalated. She was watching as people were kind of burning bins and other street furniture outside the house. Then they went for the cars and then they started petrol bombing some of the houses.

[Samaya]

Like at around 7:38, that is when they started petrol bombing the houses.

[Constance Kampfner]

How did you feel as you saw that?

[Samaya]

It was so, so, so terrifying. Like getting to know that this immediate neighbor, like you could see the flames from our house because our house has like you could see everything. So I wasn't feeling well because I couldn't believe my eyes. Like it was too much.

[Constance Kampfner]

She is absolutely terrified. Phones the police. The police say put on your uniform, put on your carer's uniform. That might stop them, but do not leave the house. When the emergency services do arrive, firefighters and all the rest of it, they actually can't get close enough to the house. It's too dangerous for them to try and get Samaya and Stella, her housemate, who's also a Ugandan carer, out. At which point one of the women rings their local pastor. So this is a guy called Jack McKee. And he raced over to the house finding, you know, awful scenes, police and riot gear and protesters holding bricks. And he essentially had to beg the protesters to just give him 10 minutes, you know, saying, these are God fearing people, give me 10 minutes to get them out.

[Oliver Wright]

I plead it with them to give me 10 minutes to let me get these women out and get them into my car.

[Constance Kampfner]

He found Samaya. She'd fainted out of fear and horrendous

[Oliver Wright]

just to see these two women. One of them had been lying on the ground for four hours, totally traumatized.

[Samaya]

Yeah, so I think I blacked out because I couldn't believe it, like why this is really happening.

[Constance Kampfner]

She'd been unconscious, she estimates for about half an hour and together with the help of firemen managed to rescue the women. They stayed at his home last night, but, you know, they're homeless now. And Somaya said, you know, it's really, really changed her mind about living here. She said she's here legally, you know, she's nothing to do with the Sudanese man alleged to have committed the attack on Monday. And she said, you know, they're targeting people who are actually looking after their mother or their granny.

[Samaya]

And someone who is actually rioting doesn't know that the person they are targeting is actually looking after their mother or their granny. Meanwhile, I left my mother back home.

[Constance Kampfner]

She's wondering what that was all for.

[Podcast Host]

Constance, you've described the scene of riots that you've watched as they unfold in some parts of Belfast. What else is happening across Northern Ireland at the moment?

[Constance Kampfner]

Yeah, so what we saw was just one of many kind of similar scenes that erupted in different parts of the city. Homes, businesses, vehicles, satellite. There was looting. Public transport across the city was suspended and armoured police vans could be seen kind of speeding down empty roads. There were helicopters ahead. Elsewhere in the city, rioters were seen throwing petrol bombs at officers. We saw kind of groups of young men, usually men dressed in black, some with kind of skull masks on, looking really quite intimidating. And they were riding around on scooters and bicycles, carrying things like hammers or petrol filled kind of little milk bottles, erecting makeshift roadblocks by setting street furniture Alight and, you know, peering into cars, letting certain drivers through, presumably people they kind of know to be part of the community.

[Podcast Host]

And this isn't the first time that we're seeing immigration related riots in Ireland.

[Constance Kampfner]

Absolutely. I mean, this part of the country, you know, it's one of the least diverse places in the uk, but in recent years we've seen various protests around the issue of immigration. You know, last June, riots gripped the town of Ballymena for several nights after the alleged attempted rape of a teenage girl. In October, there was a riot targeting the City West Hotel in Dublin housing refugees and asylum seekers. Thereafter, the alleged rape of a 10 year old girl. And we're speaking at about 3:30pm on Wednesday afternoon, so we don't know yet what things are going to look like tonight. But in court this morning, the judge noted that there had been posts circulating on social media encouraging more mass protests, telling businesses to close their doors after 1pm or else. I mean, it's worth noting that several businesses around here do remain open at this time. And John Butcher, the chief constable of the Northern Ireland Police, he said the police will identify and prosecute those responsible for the violence. An extra 200 officers will be arriving to support local police on the streets

[Keir Starmer]

and those that were involved in the violence last night, let me say this, we will come and arrest you and we will prosecute you. And that's what we've done in the past here very vociferously. And we will do it as a result of the awful, awful, tragic scenes that we saw last night that, by the way, were an insult to this poor victim and his family.

[Constance Kampfner]

Someone's already appeared in court in relation to the disorder. So the judge this morning was really keen to stress essentially that anyone caught kind of encouraging this kind of rioting or participating in it would feel the full force of the law. You know, he thanked bystanders who intervened during that attack and the emergency services and pointed out, you know, that those same emergency services were now coming under attack by those supposedly outraged at what had happened.

[Podcast Host]

And what have the family of the victim said?

[Constance Kampfner]

The family of the knife attack victim said they wanted to make it like absolutely clear that they did not condone the unrest, that it was not welcome. And they actually said, you know, we've got many migrants who make, and I quote, a deeply valuable contribution to our country, including in our healthcare system and hospitality sector. We depend on them to make our country work. And they said explicitly, we do not want this terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility they said that their focus right now is on Stephen, on being at his bedside and helping him recover. And they thanked those people who stepped in and helped him during that attack, which certainly would have saved his life, they said.

[Podcast Host]

Coming up, how much will events in Belfast change the political debate around immigration and how might it impact the by election in Makerfield? We'll have more from our man in Westminster in just a moment.

[Wayfair Advertiser]

Hey there, it's Wayfair here, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone. You're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's app when you spot it. A brand new patio set. Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up. Oh, you need a new grill too. Alright, Wayfair's got you covered. With Wayfair's Room of Choice delivery and fast expert setup on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier. Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app.

[Podcast Host]

Wayfair Every Style, Every Home if you've

[Weight Loss by Hers Advertiser]

felt stuck trying to lose weight, you're not alone. Enter Weight Loss by Hers. It's designed to support you in reaching your goals, and hers now offers access to an affordable range of FDA approved GLP1 medications, including the Wego Pill and the Wegovy Pen. Even better, with a range of affordable GLP1 options, hers makes it simple to find an approach that fits your needs and your budget. If eligible, you'll get a treatment plan personalized to you and unlimited dosage changes as needed. It's weight loss designed to work with your life. Ready to reach your goals? Visit fourhers.com eligible to get personalized Affordable care that gets you that's F o r h E-R-S.com eligible forhers.com eligible weight loss by hers is not available in all 50 states. WeGovy is the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk as to get started and learn more, including important safety information, WeGovy clinical study information and restrictions, visit for hers.com Today's Markets Move fast. Get the insights you need in 10 minutes with the Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment bank. Through Sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week. So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, the Barclays Brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today. Stay sharp, Stay Brief. Find Barclays Brief Wherever you get your podcasts,

[Oliver Wright]

It became a political event on social media within hours of it happening.

[Podcast Host]

Oliver Wright is the Policy editor at the Times and he's been covering the political response to events in Belfast.

[Oliver Wright]

Tommy Robinson, the far right activist that night posted the video online and it's really spiraled out since there.

[Podcast Host]

Speaking on Wednesday morning. It's still kicking off as a political debate. Ollie, this is the third summer now in a row of effectively immigration related protests and riots, disturbances. Is this becoming the new normal?

[Oliver Wright]

I think it is in a way. I mean if we look at this particular case, obviously it came off the back of Henry Nowak. That obviously didn't happen this summer, but the court case and the surrounding political backlash from that. So I think you have to see it within that context. But yeah, I mean immigration has been and is a huge issue when you talk to voters, particularly in areas like Makerfield, which has got a by election on at the moment. It is for some of them the absolutely number one issue. It's always in the background. And then you have an incident like this horrific attack in Belfast and it's almost like the sort of match that lights the flame. And you know, you have seen that over previous summers. Now obviously all the cases are different but really it doesn't take much. It's the trigger point and that's I think why you've seen it over a number of years.

[Podcast Host]

Now this is quite an awkward row for actually for both Conservatives and reform. This would normally be the sort of story that they would find very easy to talk about. Not so easy this time.

[Oliver Wright]

Just explain why it is difficult and partly because of the sort of specific nature of this case. Now the individual who has been charged with this attack, what do we know? We know that he entered the UK in 2023. He was a Sudanese national who had crossed over first to Ireland, he arrived in Dublin and then he went to Northern Ireland. Now there are no checks on people crossing between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland because of this thing called the Common Travel Area, which basically allows free movement of people. Now what's the problem with this? Well, the people who were in charge of the Home Office at the time that this individual came in, the Home Secretary was Suella Braverman. The Immigration Minister was Robert Jenrick. Now, listeners will know both those two politicians were obviously considered Conservative ministers, but they have now joined Nigel Farage's party. So they themselves are in a slightly tricky position. Now the other thing that we've seen in recent weeks and months is the rise of this party which until recently most people were only kind of vaguely aware of, called Restore Britain, Run by man called Rupert Lowe, who is himself an mp, a former member of Nigel Farage's party, he fell out with Farage in rather spectacular fashion. He's quite rich in his own sense. He has set up an alternative to reform, Restore Britain. The difficulty for particularly reform, is that for the first time, they face a challenge from their right. In the past, Nigel Farage has been in a position where he has not had a party on his right, which has allowed him to sort of move towards the center to try and make himself more appealing to voters who perhaps be slightly nervy of backing reform. But here comes Restore Britain on his right, presents quite a lot of tricky problems for him.

[Podcast Host]

So up until now, Nigel Farage has been able to basically own that part of the spectrum. Now, with restore, how is that playing out, that tension? How is it playing out in terms of the rhetoric around these events? Is there almost an escalation, they're competing with each other?

[Oliver Wright]

Absolutely. I mean, if you just take this case of the Belfast attack, you see Rupert Lowe on Twitter this week pointing out that Braverman was Home Secretary, Jenrick was Immigration minister, and pointing to a parliamentary answer that Jenrick gave just a month after the suspect in this attack arrived in Britain, where he said the UK had a proud history of supporting refugees and the UK is proud to have welcomed Sudanese nationals. Lowe says Jenrick appears to have been perfectly happy to welcome, as he put it, unvetted Sudanese men of fighting age, saying that it's scandalous. What checks were made, what was done on criminal records and saying that they're talking about. Jenrick and Braverman were welcoming young men from a brutally backward country that has an entirely alien culture, completely incompatible with our way of life. Now, this is what we're dealing with,

[Podcast Host]

and there is just a hardening on all sides in order to be able to compete.

[Oliver Wright]

Yeah, it's like an arms race, as it were, in terms of sort of rhetoric. And that makes it very difficult for the government to respond.

[Podcast Host]

Tell us about that. How is Labour, how is Keir Starmer responding to this situation?

[Oliver Wright]

I mean, it's hard. You know, you have to. And he is calling for calm.

[Keir Starmer]

We are united in calling for calm and determined to restore order, support the police and all those on the front line and ensure that justice is done.

[Oliver Wright]

He was saying there was absolutely no justification for, you know, the violence and the disorder that you saw in Belfast. But, you know, the question is, to what extent does he need to engage in the substance of the immigration debate around this? Who is this man who came in, the attacker? Is there any past history, what checks were done before he was given leave to remain. Those are sort of kind of important policy questions which the government needs to sort of stay on top of, as it were. So you don't allow sort of online conspiracy theories or allow a narrative to take place that is very tricky for the government and makes them look that they are not in control of the borders, which is what a very large number of voters genuinely think.

[Podcast Host]

And all of this is playing out. All of those responses from parties are playing out at a time when the by election in Makerfield is very much, you know, people are out campaigning for it. How much is that a factor in all of this?

[Oliver Wright]

I think it's quite a big factor. It's a really important by election. There was a poll last week which had Andy Burnham, who obviously wants to win that election so he can potentially challenge Sakir Starmer on 49% of the vote. It had Reform UK on 38% of the vote and Restore Britain on 8%. What does that mean? If Restore Britain wasn't there? That race would be enormously close. And it could be that when that result is announced, the only reason that Burnham wins is because the vote on the right has been split. So that, in a way, explains, in part, I think, the sort of pretty grisly rhetoric that's coming from the right on this. They're both appealing to voters who are legitimately very worried about migration. They are attempting not to be outflanked by each other on that issue. And that's a problem, I think.

[Podcast Host]

Will it make it harder for Andy Burnham that Labour aren't able to come out and say anything particularly strong on immigration? Will that cost him votes?

[Oliver Wright]

You know what? Weirdly, I don't think it will. I think Labour, and he has lost those votes already, already. But I also think that, you know, a lot of this rhetoric is really being done without the context of Northern Ireland and the very unique political circumstances in Northern Ireland. You saw Naomi Long, who is the Justice Secretary in Northern Ireland, saying that, really, she put it like this. She said that people who would have struggled yesterday to find Belfast on a map were trying to foment this sort of hatred in the community. And I think she's got a point on that.

[Podcast Host]

There has been a number of politicians actually have talked about almost foreign agents, foreign powers, big influential people abroad who, you know, as you say, might not have been able to find Belfast on a map until a few days ago, who are now wading in and seem to be influencing the debate. Tell us about that.

[Oliver Wright]

Well, I mean, obviously, with the Henry Novak case, you had some pretty inflammatory comments by the US vice president, J.D. vance. Now, he has not said anything about this as of yet, but, you know, you've got Elon Musk, who I think has arguably helped boost Restore Britain. He is an admirer of Lupitlow. And a bunch of sort of influential politicians on the right feel very strongly about this immigration debate, both in the US and in Europe, and are making political capital out of it, as you will, which is problematic for the government in one sense, but on another sense, they don't mind it, weirdly, because the one thing people in this country don't massively like is being told what to do by people in the us. So in some senses, they don't like the diplomatic row that it creates, but it's not entirely unuseful for them.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, I mean, it has been interesting sort of seeing even people like Edwina Curry, a former Conservative minister, coming out saying, there's a conspiracy afoot here, somebody

[Samaya]

is fomenting violence on our streets, and

[Constance Kampfner]

they don't need much excuse to do it.

[Podcast Host]

This isn't a wholly British problem. This is people from outside who are stirring things up. Does that sort of become an easier political answer?

[Oliver Wright]

I think it does, but also I think there are some really legitimate, important national security and political arguments to have around this, because one of the issues that's been thrown up around this case, which Rupert Lowe raises, is what do we actually know about some of these people that are coming into the UK through small boats and other means? And is there a national security argument around all this? Now, Jonathan hall, who's the Independent reviewer on terrorism, said this morning, he said, we haven't had a terrorist incident in the UK linked to someone who arrived on a small boat or illegally into the uk, and the terrorist incidents we have has been homegrown terrorism. But he's saying that is a possibility, and that is something the government needs to think about that.

[Podcast Host]

So that will increasingly become part of the political debate around immigration, the idea

[Oliver Wright]

of national security, I mean, yes, absolutely.

[Podcast Host]

What sort of pressure is Keir Starmer under in order to come up with sort of an appropriate response to Belfast? I mean, this isn't the first government that has struggled with the question of immigration. What will people want to see from him?

[Oliver Wright]

Ultimately, what the government needs to try and do, and this is really, really hard, is to show that the numbers of people crossing in small boats, which is the most visible sign of irregular or illegal migration, is reducing. And that's been something that the government has recognized. Right. The Way through, there is a direct correlation between support for parties on the right, like Reform and Restore and illegal immigration being top of the headlines. When it drifts down the headlines, their support drifts down. When it comes back, their support rises. So they just need it not to be part of the national debate. For other issues like the economy, for the NHS and education, those are areas where reform and restore have less to say. And that helps both main parties, both the Conservatives and the Labour Party. But as we've been writing about and talking about for years, tackling that small boat crisis and making a meaningful difference to the numbers crossing is pretty intractable.

[Podcast Host]

At the same time, this wasn't a case of illegal immigration. This was somebody who'd been given leave to remain. His case had been looked at. They thought he had a genuine reason to be claiming asylum. And in terms of legal immigration, as far as we know, the numbers actually have gone down massively. And yet there isn't a political dividend from that. People aren't benefiting from the fact that numbers are.

[Oliver Wright]

Yeah, I think you have to sort of disaggregate it a bit. And it's fair to say, yeah, he was given leave to remain, but why was he given leave to remain? He was given leave to remain because he comes from Sudan. Now, you know, the situation in Sudan is beyond awful at the moment with the civil war and, you know, it is simply not a safe country to send people back to. So if you do manage to make it to the UK by whatever means and you apply for asylum from Sudan, you're going to get it. Almost certainly. If you look at the numbers of people who are sent back to Sudan, I think it's less than 10%, quite significantly less than 10%. They have no idea how they do it, but if you look at the sort of propaganda from Restore, they just say, we'll send them all back. So it's tricky. Yes, he was there legally, but I think it still does play into that sort of wider debate on what. What you do about migration.

[Podcast Host]

It does seem like this incident, following on so soon from the Henry Novak case, and yet all of that, despite the fact that overall immigration figures are massively going down, it's just. It's such a tinderbox. It's really difficult to see how politicians navigate all of that. And it does feel like this isn't the end of these incidents for even this summer.

[Oliver Wright]

I agree. And, yeah, it's a silly thing to say in a way, but, you know, the government is at the mercy of events. Something entirely outwit, that can spiral out of control enormously quickly. And I think it's worth making the point that we still do not know the facts, both about the perpetrator and the victim of this attack, what led to it. Are there any sort of circumstances that may come out in the coming days, weeks and months that change the complexion of the whole situation? Politicians like generalizations, dare say they like or tend to rush to judgment. I mean, I think the police are right.

[Keir Starmer]

Your children, your grandchildren, your nieces, your nephews, people that you care about in this community, young lives, please know where they are today, this evening, tomorrow. Make sure that they understand that this is not the way forward.

[Oliver Wright]

This is an awful attack, but there's an investigation going, there's someone in custody, there's a victim, and it's a criminal investigation. And politicians, I think, of all ilks need to be really cautious about the lessons that they draw from it.

[Podcast Host]

That was Oliver Wright, policy editor of the Times, and before that, Constance Kampfner, northern reporter, talking to us from Belfast. The producers today were Michaela Arneson, Olivia case and Sophie McNulty. The executive producer was Edward Drummond, sound design was by Dave Creasy, and theme composition was by Malicetto. If you can do, leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

[Wayfair Advertiser]

Hey there. It's Wayfair here, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone. You're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's apple when you spot it. A brand new patio set. Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up. Oh, you need a new grill too. All right, Wayfair's got you covered. With Wayfair's room of choice delivery and fast expert setup on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier. Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app Wayfair

[Podcast Host]

Every style, Every home.

[Wayfair Advertiser]

Hi, it's Paige from Giggly Squad and this episode is sponsored by Experian Boost Summer Glow up. Check credit. Glow up. Even better, boost your credit scores instantly by getting credit for bills you're already paying, your phone, utilities, rent and insurance. I wish dating kind of worked like that. Connect your bank account, add those on time payments to your Experian credit file and your FICO score updates right away. You could instantly raise your FICO score by an average of 14 points with Experian Boost. Download the Experian app for free today. Results will vary. Users who received a boost improved their FICO score 8 from Experian by an average of 14 points. See appstore or experian.com for details.

[Weight Loss by Hers Advertiser]

Results will vary. Not all payments are boost eligible users who received a boost improved their FICO score rate from Experian by an average of 14 points. Some may not see improved scores or approval odds. Not all lenders use Experian credit files, and not all lenders use scores impacted by experian boost. See experian.com for details.