Joe Twyman (3:06)

I'm Joe Twyman and I'm the co founder of the public opinion consultancy deltapod.

Luke Jones (3:11)

And you spend a lot of your time looking at polls?

Joe Twyman (3:14)

I do indeed. I spend an awful lot of time looking at polls, looking at the analysis of polls and also looking at the general political situation in this country.

Luke Jones (3:27)

So when you look at the latest batch ahead of these local elections, if we start with the governing party, Labour, how are things looking from your viewpoint,

Joe Twyman (3:36)

would you say they are? Appear to be looking pretty grim. This whole set of elections is, of course, hugely important to all of the parties, but particularly Labour. They hold 27 of the 32 seats in Wales, they hold 37 of the 57 seats in Scotland and they held 59 of the 75 seats in London. Now, that's nearly 30% of the seats that they won in 2024. And all the indications are whether it's in Wales, Scotland or particularly in England, all the indications are that their support has fallen back significantly since the general election. And so if in those areas they really do take a bit of a kicking, that raises some deep and interesting questions about the future of the Labour Party, not just up to the next election, but beyond that as well.

Luke Jones (4:22)

When you think of the actual areas where Labour is expected to be doing badly, where are you looking at on the map?

Joe Twyman (4:29)

Well, really all areas, you could characterise them as the areas where voting is taking place place. That is a problem for them. The expectation is they are going to do badly in lots of places. The key question is how badly. And so you have really interesting areas like Birmingham, Coventry and Gateshead metropolitan boroughs that are up for election that Labour could lose. You also have district and unitary authorities, places like Thurrock, which Labour could lose to reform, a really important area that's historically a bellwether area. And then places like Milton Keynes, which Labour won at the last election but could lose in these local elections. And then the alternative question is, who will they lose to if they do lose? In areas like London, for instance, you potentially have the Conservatives challenging in places like Barnet and Westminster, you have the Greens challenging in places like Hackney and Lewisham, and you have reform challenging in places like Dagenham and Redbridge.

Luke Jones (5:33)

So.

Joe Twyman (5:33)

So really, really complicated places and combinations of scenarios for Labour that they have to deal with.

Luke Jones (5:42)

And the support that reform has been accruing over the years, has it been one steady rise in the places where they're doing well or has it plateaued or dipped at any point?

Joe Twyman (5:54)

Well, it depends whether you talk about reform as in its most modern incarnation as Reform uk. And let's count that from basically the. Of the start of the 2024 general election campaign, and in most areas, what you have seen is a relatively low level of support going into the election. Nigel Farage announces candidacy and there's a boost in support and what you've then seen is a general upward trajectory overall, but one that tends to take place in phases. And so there'll be a big jump followed by a plateau, another big jump followed by a plateau. Now, obviously jump and plateau are relative and I'm simplifying it there, but that is generally what we've seen and that is true for most areas where reform support has been. But in recent months there hasn't really been much of a significant increase at all to speak of. In terms of long term trends for

Luke Jones (6:51)

reform, what has the green trajectory been in the polls that you've seen? And how much can we attribute that to their new leader, Zach Polanski, relatively new leader. And where are the areas on the map that they are looking like they might do particularly well? What are they excited about?

Joe Twyman (7:10)

Well, in terms of the places that the Greens are targeting, those will be the areas that Labour has previously done well in, those larger urban areas, particularly university cities. And so they will be going for areas with younger populations and particularly left leaning progressive populations. And the story of their rise is one that is one that can't be told without. Without focusing on Zach Polanski's election as Green leader. Regardless of whether you support his politics or not, most people would agree that he's a very good and effective communicator and certainly a big departure from many of the previous leaders that Greens have had. It'll be interesting to see whether they can take those areas like Hackney and Lewisham, where there are not just local elections for the boroughs, but there are also London borough elections. The suggestion is that across the 32 London boroughs, the polling that has been done and there's a large margin of error associated with this, but the suggestion is that the Greens could be the largest party in four of those London boroughs.

Luke Jones (8:18)

We haven't mentioned the Conservatives or Lib Dems and of course, once they used to, they used to run the whole show business. Yeah, you're in, then you're not. How are they faring? When you look at the polls, the

Joe Twyman (8:29)

Conservatives have simply not been able to. To hold on to the votes as they had in 2024 for a host of reasons, but most obviously the rise in reform. They've been shedding votes, so they will. It's likely have probably quite a tough time in this set of elections as well. But it may be that they're able to turn things around in places like Barnet, my own London borough, where labor are in control at the moment but are potentially unpopular. And then because of the dynamics and the demographics of this particular area. It may be that a lot of people are hesitant about moving to reform, but are more open to the idea of going back to the Conservatives. But still, that's likely to be the silver lining to a wider cloud for

Luke Jones (9:22)

them and the Lib Dems, as we look at the data suggesting how they might fare, what are you seeing?

Joe Twyman (9:28)

What's interesting to me about the Lib Dems is we've seen all this movement for reform that we've talked about in Green, we've seen the collapse of labour, etc, etc. Movement for the Conservatives. But for the Lib Dems, things are pretty much static. They've been between sort of 11 and 13%, not just for months, but for years now. Other parties are able to capitalise on the collapse of Labour, at least at the national level. This hasn't been replicated for the Lib Dems, at least not yet.

Luke Jones (9:57)

You mentioned in terms of parts of London, how difficult it is actually to poll some of these areas. Wide margin of error. Actually, just looking across the map of England, how hard is it to actually poll local election results?

Joe Twyman (10:11)

It's extraordinarily difficult. Extraordinarily difficult. Not just for the reasons that polling generally is difficult, because there's always a margin of error associated with these things. And. And in a constituency or a ward or an area where you could potentially have five or of course, six parties all within chance of victory, that means that very small numbers could make a big difference. And you have the margin of error associated with that. But also you have various different forms of electoral systems. You have some areas that are going to vote in more than one election. You have many areas, of course, that aren't voting at all, and so you can't include those in the sample. It just makes it extremely complicated. And increasingly, as an industry, we use sophisticated techniques to try and model where the voting might be at the moment based on complicated combinations of demographics and things. But the reality is that turnout in these elections is low compared to the general election, and you have to model for that. And then you just have very small areas with very specific demographics that have to be taken into account. And so with all of this, I would say that the polling and the analysis that has been done needs to be taken with these margins of error in mind, that these are good for a broad idea, but could come unstuck when it comes to precise percentages.

Luke Jones (11:41)

And yet outlets like Full Fact have pointed out that some of that is being capitalised by parties themselves. When you look at some of their elections leaflets as they have it found that some are using really distorted, misleading, unsourced data even to actually exaggerate the threat of X or Y party. And that's why you must vote for us to keep them out. I mean, do you see a lot of that? It must infuriate you, really.

Joe Twyman (12:06)

Only for the 40 years that I've been paying any real attention to any attention to elections. So this is something that has a long and inglorious history in British elections and not just British elections as well, but it is something that I think has been supercharged in the era of big data because there's just so much more polling out there and if you wanted to, you could misrepresent this data and in some cases actually the data itself, it looks perfectly reasonable, but it's being overstretched for certain circumstances. I've lived in marginal constituencies on a few occasions and I have had people knock on my door and quote my own data back to me and explaining how it, how it shows this or shows that. And I've had the amusing situation of saying aha, well let me stop you there sir, stroke, madam. And let's discuss this perhaps in more detail. And so yes, that is what I would say is treat any statistic you see in campaign literature or parties. Campaigns generally treat any statistic with, if not skepticism, then certainly caution, a bucket full of salt.

Luke Jones (13:21)

Just finally you made reference there to the sort of five, six party system which we're increasingly living under. And also add on top of that the smattering of quite consequential independence that you see in some election races around the country. Is that here to stay, do you think? Is our two and a half party system completely dead and buried? This is the new normal, as they say?

Joe Twyman (13:41)

Well, I think it would be foolish to draw hard conclusions about anything, but certainly it does feel this time like the two party system, if not dead, is certainly suffering an ongoing crisis. It's worth remembering that as recently as 2019 the two main parties received more than 80% of the vote. So these things can change back and forth quite quickly. But I think the underlying distrust, dissatisfaction and disapproval, not just with the government, but with parties that have been in government. Of course, all shades, is something that has proved extraordinarily difficult to shift. This pattern is by no means unique to us. We are seeing it in lots of countries across the world. Incumbent parties, be they left, right, conservative, liberal, etc, etc, however you characterize it, they are all suffering from issues around confidence, expectations and issues around delivery. And for as long as that continues, I think we will see the five stroke six party system be present to a greater or lesser degree in British politics.

Luke Jones (14:49)

Good to talk to you, Jeff. Thanks for your time.

Joe Twyman (14:51)

My pleasure. Thank you.

Luke Jones (14:57)

So what might all this mean for Keir Starmer? His party? His future? Maybe his departure? The Sunday Times deputy political editor is with us. Next

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Lara Spirit (17:50)

Hi, I am Lara Spirit. I'm the deputy political editor of the Sunday Times.

Luke Jones (17:56)

So MPs and the rest are off as these elections take place, would you say the mood amongst them is. Is excited?

Lara Spirit (18:03)

I think you know the answer to that question. The mood amongst MPs is somber. If you are a Labour MP, you'll be feeling abjectly miserable right now, pretty desperate, very downbeat, and I would say there's an atmosphere of grave foreboding ahead of those elections next week. If you are a Green mp, you'll be feeling absolutely phenomenal. If you are one of the Reform mps, you'll also be feeling very, very good.

Luke Jones (18:31)

If we just go through some of them, how are they all pitching to you in private how they think they'll fare? How are they managing expectations?

Lara Spirit (18:39)

Yeah. So I think the managing expectations that you've seen from some inside number 10, for example, and elsewhere, largely centers around pointing out, not unrealistic, that the last time these seats were contested, the set of seats were contested in 2022, was a really a high watermark, in some senses, of Labour support. They were doing well. They were 21 points higher in the polls, according to Stephen Fisher, a professor at Oxford, than they are today. So they would say, if you look at that, you would assume very heavy losses. You would also assume in a kind of midterm, that any party that is governing would see a significant drubbing that bears a number of historical precedents. And if Labour were to do well in these elections, it would be eyebrow raising in and of itself. That is obviously true. But what you hear from some Labour MPs who are a bit more sceptical about next week and at this point a little bit less loyal than they might have been at the beginning of this term for Keir Starmer is that they feel that there are decisions that Keir Starmer in particular has made that have made the chances of Labour in these elections worse.

Luke Jones (19:39)

Yes. And then if we sort of go beyond them and think about the challenges. So if you have look at Reform and Greens, it seems like they are pitching a lot more national campaigns. They're not necessarily fighting this on local issues. Is that the case, would you say?

Lara Spirit (19:54)

I think that's definitely the case. I mean, I've had leaflets through my door, as I'm sure you have as well, and it has been remarked upon a number of times that, for example, the Green Party Gaza is a very big part of their local election campaign. The future of Gaza is not going to be determined by the results of these local elections, I think most people would correctly argue. And actually a lot of the local issues that you might traditionally associate campaigns with have fallen Slightly by the wayside. I mean, even the environment, which is a traditionally big Green thing, is less mentioned, you will find, by the current Green leadership than it has been in previous iterations, which I think is very interesting.

Luke Jones (20:29)

And the reform approach is to talk about Keir Starmer as much as possible.

Lara Spirit (20:32)

The reform approach is to talk about Keir Starmer as much as possible, which, given Keir Starmer's historically bad favourability ratings, is hardly surprising. But there's not necessarily a clear correlation between these local election results and Keir Starmer specifically. That being said, of course, we do think that it's becoming even more of a referendum on him, given that there is so much noise around whether or not Kirstan will survive after these May elections.

Luke Jones (20:54)

Are you hearing From Frank Labour MPs that that is actually what they're hearing on the doorstep? Are they hearing Keir Starmer's name mentioned more often than not, as opposed to, well, I'm annoyed about my bin collections or what is happening with my rate of council tax?

Lara Spirit (21:08)

Yes, and I think this has been one of the big arguments in recent days, because we've seen the saga over Peter Mandelson's vetting affair flare up just ahead of these elections. And one of the things that ministers and more loyal Labour MPs will say is this doesn't come up on the doorstep. Peter Mandelson people care much more about the nhs, about immigration, about all your classic issues. Actually, when I've spoken to some people, they will say, no, even Mandelson does come up on the doorstep. Keir Starmer specifically comes up on the doorstep. There are Labour MPs, you know, who are saying, at this point, I would vote for you if it was a different leader. So clearly they are very keenly aware of the fact that Keir Starmer is not popular. Their point is, actually, you have to think about what could come and what might be worse. And that when you look at what Starmer is doing on the international stage, for example, when you look at how grave the risks that we face at home, not just in security terms, but also economically because of the cost of living crisis, that changing leader would be a really, really destabilising and terrible thing. But I do think that there's been a real surge in concern about the fact that the offer, perhaps to the left flank of the party, hasn't been good enough. And that's why, you know, I, a few weeks ago in the Sunday Times, that David Lammy, the Deputy Prime Minister, had raised concerns about the party's campaign fearing that it hadn't been positive enough, particularly on questions around Europe. And in a big mega MRP poll that more in common, a pollster did for the Sunday Times, which found that for the first time, three cabinet ministers were going to the Greens. They would lose their seats to the Greens. And previously it had been basically reform.

Luke Jones (22:35)

And actually, David Lammy is an interesting one on that, because he's a London MP and actually that is where a lot of the threat is.

Lara Spirit (22:40)

Yes. And he has said previously to the New Statesman that basically there's no risk of losing Tottenham, the seat he's held since 2000, to the greens. But there is a surge in support for the Greens there and elsewhere. And the Greens are slated to do extremely well in London, as you say, particularly in some of these inner boroughs that have traditionally been seen as key Labour strongholds.

Luke Jones (22:58)

We might see in these elections great big gains for reform. And the Greens, and both of us have particularly had problems in getting suitable candidates, have been a fair few sort of scandals and stooshes about who they've actually got on their lists.

Lara Spirit (23:11)

Yes, this is true. We have. We have seen examples of candidates, former remarks and comments having been unearthed, some of which are extremely offensive. We have seen that with reform in the general election, at which point Nigel Farage expressed fury at the vetting process of candidates. We've now seen this with the Greens in a very big way in this election, where a number of them have been exposed as having made egregiously anti Semitic remarks before. And that's something that the Green Party says it's investigating. But I think, you know, they will want people to be sympathetic that they've seen a surge of support and it's very difficult to vet all these candidates appropriately for these elections. But actually they are now trying to say that they're a very serious political party. And I think everybody would agree that these comments are completely unacceptable and that will, I think, be a continuing sore for them.

Luke Jones (23:56)

In particular, we've not mentioned the Conservatives and we've not mentioned the Lib Dems. How are they expected to fare in this? Kemi Banach in particular has of late had something of a reprieve of all the leadership. Hating Ed Davy is. What kind of a situation is he in with his own party?

Lara Spirit (24:13)

The Lib Dems are forecast to make gains in these elections, but they are not forecast to make big gains in these elections. And in previous elections, they have been the big success story. Often they have done very well. And although they are, you know, fighting hard in In London and elsewhere, I think that they're probably not going to be a massive part of the story on election night this time around. The Conservatives, you know, under that analysis that I mentioned before by Stephen Fisher, the Oxford professor, were expected to lose over a thousand seats, or 10, 10 seats. That is a really significant loss. But Cammy Baylor, as you say, has had something of a moment recently. People crediting her in PMQS for being more assertive. Her personal popularity, and particularly on some leadership metrics that we've reported on recently, has been going up. She is the most popular major party political leader in the country now, which is really striking.

Luke Jones (25:01)

But from a low base, we should

Lara Spirit (25:03)

say from a low base, we should say from a low base. But the problem that she has, of course, is that regardless of how well her personal brand has improved, the Conservative Party brand is still seen as very toxic, and she is yet to find a way of wiggling out of that problem. I think that she's been granted, though, something of a stay, given that they've kind of baked in the fact that there will be quite big losses and also because the major story will be on Keir Starmer's leadership come those election results. So they will be feeling nervous because it's not going to be a good night for them. But I don't think that they are in anything like the same position at this point than the Labour Party are.

Luke Jones (25:34)

Where will you be when results start trickling?

Joe Twyman (25:37)

I.

Lara Spirit (25:37)

Probably in the office, I think, just

Luke Jones (25:40)

chained to a desk somewhere out there. What are you going to be looking at for? And how soon do you think we'll get some clear picture of how devastating this is going to be for Keir Starmer? I mean, is there a threshold at which you think alarm bells are going to start flashing?

Lara Spirit (25:52)

Well, one Cabinet minister said to me last week that the threshold was at 1500 seats. So if Labour lose 1500 seats in these elections, that would be the point at which there would be a kind of collective nervous breakdown amongst the Cabinet and you would expect some movement to take place. We should say that Lord Hayward, who is a key elections analyst, has predicted that Labour will lose something in the region of 1800 seats. So above that. And so I think, you know, we're looking at a really difficult. A difficult night in terms of when we might expect something to happen. These results are trickling in over both Friday and Saturday. On kind of the early hours of Friday morning. Some of those that are announcing are only announcing it like they're only contesting a third of their seats. So you might not see masses of changes in overall control. I think you're looking at getting into Friday and Saturday before you have a real sense of how Labour MPs will feel.

Luke Jones (26:41)

Election watches It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Lara Spirit (26:43)

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Luke Jones (26:44)

Pace yourself.

Lara Spirit (26:47)

And, you know, journalists like us will be frantically texting Labour MPs to see how they're feeling, how they're processing whatever losses they might have. Might have suffered and see whether or not they would be comfortable doing anything about that.

Luke Jones (26:59)

But one variable is how badly Labour does. Obviously, the other variable in this is the extent to which any possible challenger is organised and feels like they can actually stick their head above the parapet. Do you think by the time you hit send on your final bit of copy for Sunday's time next week, you will see a Wes Streeting and Angela Raina actually do something? Because there's been a lot of chat about it, but not actually a lot of action.

Lara Spirit (27:26)

Yes. And there's, we understand, a split among Keir Starmer's top team about whether or not a reshuffle very early on after those election results would be a good thing. Is that a way of kind of resetting the dial? Could you bring back Angela Rainer if she had sorted out her tax affairs? She's, of course, the former deputy prime minister who resigned some time ago. I think at this point, the cabinet are in and those challenges are in a state of suspended animation, where they basically want any of their other colleagues to do it for them. They also want the backbenchers to do it for them. And this is the absolute key thing that you have hit upon there, Luke, which is that if one of them doesn't move, then Keir Dahmer probably just does survive. Because you have to have a challenger who puts their head above the parapet and says, I want this. And I think that, Kir, you have to go. The plan that has also been suggested is some. Some Cabinet ministers will privately go to Keir Starmer and say, we're not forcing you out now, but we are going to force you into setting out a timetable where you have to say, I'll go by conference, for example, I'll say that I am going to go by a certain date. That gives the party clarity and it allows them to think about the future. In which point, I will manage the response to the Iran crisis as best as I possibly can. I will deal with the cost of living pressures. Now, when I put this to friends of the Prime Minister, they say, well, that sounds Kind of compelling. But also if you look at what happened to Tony Blair when he was forced to set out a date of you basically become a lame duck and that Starmer will dig in and he will try and stay. So I think it'll be really interesting to see if that does happen. And much will, of course, come down to how does Keir Starmer think his position is come the end of those elections? Does he want to dig in and carry on? The timeline question is complicated slightly by the fact that, you know, maybe it will force the minds of some challengers, like perhaps Angela Rayner or West Streeting, who would probably fare worse under that because you would have the chance for Andy Burnham, the so called King of the north, the Greater Manchester mayor, to find a seat and make his way back into parliament and mount that, that challenge. And he imposes much more popular than, for example, Angela Rayner, who is the

Luke Jones (29:21)

person who is not a possible challenger but who is concerned about Keir Starmer's leadership, who would want to go and talk to him and force the issue, but to then create the space for others? I mean, who is that person? Ed Miliband?

Lara Spirit (29:33)

That's a really, I mean, I think it's going to be really difficult for any of them. I mean, there's been reports that they've been discussing this amongst themselves. It will take a coalition of them, you would expect to make, make Keir really feel like, okay, I don't command the confidence of my top team, so I'm going to have to do what they say. And, you know, if it were a single leadership challenger who went to him, you could imagine him being like, well,

Luke Jones (29:54)

no,

Lara Spirit (29:57)

I think if you had grandees like Pat McFadden, for example, or Yvette Cooper or, you know, other senior cabinet colleagues who are not immediately mentioned as possible challenges, then perhaps that would make a difference.

Luke Jones (30:11)

Yes, but if it's Angela Rayner or we're treating at the same time also measuring the curtains in the study, it's sort of, it's less convincing. Well, we'll see what happens. Lara, thank you.

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Luke Jones (30:25)

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor at the Sunday Times. We also heard from Joe Twyman from Delta Poll. The story@thetimes.com is our email. How do you fit into this election? Maybe you don't at all. Maybe you're not voting next week, but let us know your view if you've got one. And if you have a friend or a relative who is interested in all of this, why not send the episode to them so they can have a listen as well. That is it from us this week. Today's producer was Michaela Arneson. The executive producer was Edward Drummond. Sound design was by Dave Creasy and theme composition was by Malisetto. I'm Luke Jones. See you soon. Par le tu francais, hablas espanol.

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