Starmer's final days

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Is Keir Starmer about to Resign?"

Podcast: The Story
Host: The Times (Luke Jones)
Date: June 22, 2026
Main Guest: Aubrey Allegretti, Chief Political Correspondent for The Times

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Overview

This episode examines mounting speculation that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is poised to resign amid deep internal Labour Party strife, U-turns, ministerial resignations, and dismal poll numbers. Host Luke Jones and guest Aubrey Allegretti provide an inside look at the weekend’s political maneuvering, discuss the likelihood and consequences of Starmer’s resignation, explore potential successors—most notably Andy Burnham—and reflect on the broader implications for the Labour Party and British politics.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The State of Play: Starmer’s Position in Crisis

• Loss of Support & Leadership Challenge

  • Starmer faces mounting internal opposition, with a significant portion of his own party now seeking his departure.
  • Reports that up to half of the Parliamentary Labour Party may support a change in leadership, with Andy Burnham's camp presenting a list of 200 MPs asking Starmer to go.
  • Notable cabinet ministers such as Heidi Alexander and Yvette Cooper are reportedly putting pressure on Starmer to step aside.
  • Tension between public professions of defiance and private acceptance of defeat is clear.

  Quote:

  • “Going into the weekend...there was a dissonance between Starmer's public professions and his private reflections.” —Aubrey Allegretti [04:11]

• Cabinet and Party Atmosphere

  • Reports of a frenzied atmosphere among Labour politicians jockeying for top positions in a potential post-Starmer government, likened humorously to MPs suggesting themselves for roles like “Minister for Tiddlywinks.”
  • Many believe Starmer’s political isolation is now severe, even among close aides and senior Number 10 staff.

  Quote:

  • “There's a whole load of briefing about who’s going into what job, who would make the best person for those jobs. And it's perfectly natural and understandable because of course, decisions don't happen in a vacuum...” —Aubrey Allegretti [03:24]

2. How Did We Get Here? Timeline & Key Incidents

• Attempts to Oust Starmer

  • Anasawa (Scottish Labour leader) at the start of the year signaled early turbulence.
  • Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s resignation, among others, intensified the pressure.
  • Starmer’s support in the Parliamentary Labour Party has eroded from 100 MPs seeking change to reportedly close to 200.

  Quote:

  • “...Andy Burnham’s allies are briefing that they’re going to present the Prime Minister with a list of 200 names—close to 50% of the PLP who would want the PM to go.” —Aubrey Allegretti [07:31]

• Burnham’s Position and Strategy

  • Discussions of forcing a “coronation” rather than a contest if Starmer steps aside.
  • Uncertainty about whether Starmer will resign willingly or attempt to fight on.

3. The Endgame: Will Starmer Resign and Who Benefits?

• Likelihood of Resignation

  • Little expectation that Starmer can realistically mount a comeback.
  • Much of the decision appears personal, involving his family as well as political calculation.

  Quote:

  • “Ultimately, it will come down, presumably, to a personal judgment that he'll make with his wife, Victoria Starmer...” —Aubrey Allegretti [10:16]

• Potential Leadership Contestants

  • Andy Burnham is the clear front-runner, with other would-be candidates like Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner lacking necessary momentum or numbers.
  • The possibility of Streeting leveraging his clout for a senior role in a Burnham government.

  Quote:

  • “Allies of Streeting say it’s very unlikely that he stands against Andy Burnham now...he does have the numbers, but ultimately he knows he would lose a contest.” —Aubrey Allegretti [11:51]

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What Would a Burnham Premiership Look Like?

4. Burnham’s Policy Potential & Challenges

• Preparation and Party Dynamics

  • Burnham is a known figure, but concerns linger amongst Labour MPs about his preparedness, particularly with a possible “truncated timeline.”
  • Expected to lean on established Labour Party networks but may be less familiar with newer MPs from the 2024 intake.

  Quote:

  • “There are lots of Labour MPs I speak to who are worried that the Burnham Premiership is going to be much less prepared than they would like.” —Aubrey Allegretti [16:19]

• Cabinet Reshuffle?

  • Likely major shifts, especially at Treasury, with possible names including Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting, and Shabana Mahmood.
  • Need to reward allies who delivered Burnham’s return and balance continuity with the 2024 manifesto.

• Policy Differences & Public Mood

  • Not always clear where Burnham would diverge from existing Labour positions; notable for recent flip-flops on the EU, fiscal rules, state pension age for women (“WASPI” issue).
  • Possible moves: land tax replacing council tax, income tax tweaks, radical House of Lords reform, and focus on vocational training over university routes.

  Quote:

  • “[Burnham] also talked in his victory speech...the three things he name-checked were an end to trickle-down economics; creating more vocational and training routes...and an end to HMO Britain...” —Aubrey Allegretti [25:10]

• Electoral Challenges

  • Burnham’s key test: Can “Manchesterism”—his brand of regional economic and social policy—resonate beyond the north and in Labour’s new metropolitan heartlands?
  • Reform party presents a challenge, though their poll numbers are trending downward.

  Quote:

  • “His challenge will be magnifying Manchesterism...does it extend to all parts of the north as well as the Midlands, the South, the Home Counties, lots of places where Labour’s arguably new traditional heartlands sit?” —Aubrey Allegretti [26:00]

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Structural or Temporary Turmoil? Reflections on British Politics

5. Is Constant Leadership Turnover the New Normal?

• Historical Perspective

  • While Britain has seen bouts of instability before, recent turbulence is unusually intense.
  • The method and manner of transition, rather than the fact of changing leaders, may determine public trust and party fortunes.

  Quote:

  • “I think the way in which the transition is handled could dictate quite a lot—whether or not the public really backs this or not.” —Aubrey Allegretti [28:02]

• Starmer’s Fate

  • Starmer’s decline is seen as self-inflicted; lacked emotional connection and responsiveness to public concerns.
  • His struggles are seen as “a slow death spiral” since the ill-fated winter fuel announcement (late 2024).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Party Maneuvering:

  • “Minister for Tiddlywinks was, I think, how one Labour MP frustratedly characterised their colleagues today.” —Aubrey Allegretti [03:24]

• On Starmer’s Prospects:

  • “Giving up the job of Prime Minister is not something one does easily.” —Aubrey Allegretti [08:26]

• On Burnham’s Mandate:

  • “He is trying to keep his cards close to his chest instead of going full bluster...That’s why there is almost a little bit of an accepted stalemate going on between the candidates, because I think they largely realize that Andy Burnham has it sort of sewn up.” —Aubrey Allegretti [12:55]

• On the Broader Political Mood:

  • “A lot of Labour ministers go, I just forgot what it felt like to feel happy, to feel like we could win.” —Aubrey Allegretti [21:28]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:59 — Host introduces the topic: potential Starmer resignation.
• 04:11 — Starmer’s public stance vs. internal discussions; Cabinet members urging him to go.
• 07:31 — Shift from 100 to nearly 200 Labour MPs backing leadership change.
• 10:16 — How Starmer may weigh personal and political factors in his decision.
• 16:19 — Questions about Burnham’s readiness; party insider anxieties.
• 21:28 — “Vibe shift”: The psychological toll of leadership instability on Labour MPs.
• 25:10 — Burnham’s key policy signals after Makerfield win.
• 28:02 — Is Britain’s political turbulence the “new normal”?

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Conclusion

This episode offers a front-row seat to a moment of significant change in British politics, combining real-time reporting with insightful analysis of how Starmer’s leadership could end, what a Burnham premiership might entail, and what all of this says about the state—and potential future—of the Labour Party. The transitions are shown not just as the result of political machinations, but as a reflection of broader malaise and impatience in both Westminster and the country at large.

Final thought:
Changing leaders, as Aubrey Allegretti notes, is not inherently damaging—“The way in which the transition is handled could dictate quite a lot.” [28:02] The coming days will show whether Labour can manage this moment for renewal or if further chaos awaits.

Transcript

[Hannah Previtt]

Hannah Previtt here from the Business podcast. Join me for a special episode with PwC UK's Marco Amitrano and WPP's Michael Froelish, recorded at the Greater Together Conference in Los Angeles, California. We'll discuss how partnerships between the US and the UK can drive economic growth and shape the future of transatlantic collaboration. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Luke Jones]

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Luke Jones. Could we be about to welcome our seventh prime minister in 10 years? BURNHAM Andrew Murray, commonly known as Andy Burnham.

[Hannah Previtt]

The Labour and Cooperative Party 24937.

[Luke Jones]

In fact, if you're on the west coast mainline this morning, heading south, you might just see the maybe challenger heading to Parliament. After a long drawn out slide in the opinion polls, U turns and ministerial resignations, many are wondering if Keir Starmer will even put up much of a fight. His colleagues yesterday didn't seem sure. Is it still true that he would fight a leadership challenge?

[Andy Burnham]

These are decisions for Kiir to make and that's why I said that he is taking the time as well as dealing with all the issues that a Prime Minister deals with over a weekend, a very busy weekend and no doubt

[Luke Jones]

a very busy week. Will Starmer go? Will there be a contest or a coronation? And is swapping out Kier for Andy? Just what this governing Labour Party needs to miraculously turn around their fortunes. The story today KDMer constructive dismissal.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

My name is Aubrey Allegretti. I'm the chief political correspondent for the Times.

[Luke Jones]

What have you been up to today?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

Oh gosh, it's a sort of endless stream of sort of half speculation, half people sort of briefing their own lines and selves into jobs and a sort of healthy dose of skepticism, I suppose that after months of kind of circling the plug hole and feeling like we're in a similar position constantly, whether or not we are sort of finally on the cusp of Labour MPs managing to defenstrate Keir Starmer.

[Luke Jones]

But hang on a second, so even you've even got politicians in your whatsapps jumping well ahead of Starmer resigning and saying, well actually I think I'd make a very good minister for spoons or whatever.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

Yeah Certainly Minister for Tiddlywinks was, I think, how one Labour MP frustratedly characterised their colleagues today. There's a whole load of briefing about who's going into what job, who would make the best person for those jobs. And it's perfectly natural and understandable because of course decisions don't happen in a vacuum. They are taken based on who has certain politicians at any one moment and they want their names in the mix because they want to be so seriously considered for a top job. And if they don't get it, then at least it might mean that they get a slightly more junior one.

[Luke Jones]

And what is our understanding, you know, at time of recording this is the afternoon of Sunday, what do we know about actually what Starmer is up to today? Where is he and where is he mulling over his future and who with?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

So, going into the weekend, me and my colleagues were reporting that there was a dissonance between Starmer's public professions and his private reflections. I actually spent the start the week with him at the G7 summit in Evian in France, lifetime ago. I know, I know, I know. And there we were being told very strongly by the Prime Minister that he had no plans to step down whatsoever, that he'd fight on, he'd stand in a leadership contest, and it was this incredibly sort of bristle, determined image that he was trying to project. And on Friday evening, actually, if you sort of scratched the surface, you started to realize that the position was a lot more nuanced than that The Chief Whip, Jonathan Reynolds, had been to see the PM to convey the sort of strength of feeling amongst backbenchers. Cabinet ministers were increasingly the view that Keir Starmer had to go, including Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary, and Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, both of whom were putting pressure on him to set out a timetable for his departure. And indeed, you actually had some senior figures inside number 10 who were starting to come to that reflection too, over the course of the weekend. More reports surfaced late on Saturday night which suggested that Keir Starmer had effectively made up his mind and was poised to resign at the start of the new week. Keir Starmer's locked himself away in Checkers, his countryside retreat, which has been resembled by some to a bunker, trying to hunker down and figure out if there's any route out for him whatsoever. But today we had a Cabinet Minister, Peter Kyle, openly saying that actually Keir Starmer was considering stepping down.

[Andy Burnham]

He's also making time this weekend to try and reflect on the political challenges that he faces Our country faces, our party faces. He's also taking the time to think through what the political realities are today compared to last week, the week before,

[Aubrey Allegretti]

and talking again in very stark terms about whether or not Andy Burnham would make a good leader, what the sort of process for a leadership contest should look like. Issachar was saying that he always preferred a contest to a coronation. And so it does feel like we're in completely uncharted territory.

[Luke Jones]

And is that different to the period we had, however long ago it was, where eventually, where Streeting resigned, you know, where we had people like Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, on the airwaves similarly sounding glum, similarly sort of, you know, putting it out there that maybe the Prime Minister was thinking about his future. Are you saying we're in a different situation to that now? A different order of magnitude? Completely.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I mean, there have been sort of two big attempts to try and oust the Prime Minister. First, Anasawa, the Scottish Labour leader, towards the start of the year, in the run up to those Holyrood elections, precipitating what some thought would be the sort of start of the fall of the dominoes.

[Andy Burnham]

The situation in Downing street is not good enough. There have been too many mistakes.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

That's why it cannot continue. And then fast forward a few months and then, of course, you had Wes Dreeting's resignation as Health Secretary alongside a number of other ministers.

[Andy Burnham]

I left the government because we are in the fight of our lives against nationalism and it is a fight that we are currently losing. Unless we change course, we risk handing the keys of number 10 to reform, and I do not want that on our consciences.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

And on both of those occasions, the key difference to what's happening now is Cabinet ministers basically came out and publicly tweeted their support for Keir Starmer, and the number of MPs who were calling for him to go remained sort of high watermark of around 100. So roughly a quarter of the parliamentary party where we are now now is that Andy Burnham's allies are briefing that they basically going to present the Prime Minister with a list of 200 names, so touching close to 50% of the PLP who would want the PM to go. And so, yeah, we're absolutely in very different territory.

[Luke Jones]

And the logic with that plan, as Burnham's allies are briefing to you, is even though the Prime Minister would automatically be in any leadership contest that is triggered, that would scare him off the prospect so much they would be saying to him, look, this is an absolute slam dunk. All of These people, current MPs of yours, want Andy Burnham instead. Don't even bother. And that would make way for Coronation. Do you think that that will actually work?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I mean, it certainly has the potential to. Keir Starmer, we're being told, is obviously deliberating his future now and he wants to put the country first. So I think that sort of element of kind of public service and not wanting to do anything that could cause long term damage to the country in terms of trust in politics and the economic damage that's being caused by this continued uncertainty, I think will weigh very heavily on his mind. And he therefore want to do anything to necessarily compound those insecurities. At the same time, giving up the job of Prime Minister is not something one does easily. I had Labour MPs saying to me this week, you know, we're not going to hand over the keys to Downing street just because some mug in a bucket hat fancies playing running the country for a while. And another Labour mp, who sort of unkindly referring to the reform candidate in Makefield, they said, just because Burnham's beaten the sort of local village idiot doesn't make him qualified to become Prime Minister. There is sort of deep visceral frustration from Keir Starmer's allies about how this is all being handled. And I was told by one very senior Labour MP over the weekend that Keir Starmer was very bitter, he was angry and being ruled by his personal hatred of Andy rather than any rational thought. So there is a lot in the mix still and sort of don't rule out Keir Starmer sort of being so frustrated that he does try to eat this out for a little bit longer. But whether or not he can successfully do that, I think there's diminishing chance of him being able to do so.

[Luke Jones]

And even though some of the prevailing commentary of late has been that Starmer is a big wet fish, actually, you know, he is described by a lot of people as being very stubborn and I guess you have to be to get to the point where you end up becoming Prime Minister in the first place. So are you saying actually it's not a given that he wheels out the lectern on Monday morning and actually thinks, yeah, Andy, we'll have a contest.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I think there's a very slim chance that he does that, to be brutally honest. He's obviously. It goes back to the sort of conversation we were having at the start about politicians being led by who they are listening to. And in Andy Burnham's case, he's Trying to sort of cultivate a team that will give him good advice. And there is a battle to be heard to sort of inform, inform the calculation about, for example, who should be his Chancellor and what positions people should get in the Cabinet and the rest of his number 10 team. In Keir Starmer's case, it seems as though even those who are sort of closest to him are turning against him, and that includes senior aides, staff in number 10, who are his political advisers and think that the writing's on the wall. Ultimately, it will come down, presumably, to a sort of personal judgment that he'll make with his wife, Victoria Starmer, who accompanied him on the G7 trip to Evian this week. There were a few people who remarked that they thought that was a bit strange. She was there and they said, it basically looks like they, as a couple, were sort of making the most of potentially their last outing on the international stage together. Sure, it'll be a personal decision for him based on what he thinks is best for him, her, their family as well as, of course, the Labour Party in the country.

[Luke Jones]

And as you're reading of all of this, it actually, it is about the dynamic between Burnham and Starmer, and not and not subject to what someone like Wes Streeting might try and do. Is he still in a position, as his people were saying ages ago, that actually he has got 81 names and he could say, well, I'm going to trigger a contest and we're going to have that battle of ideas which he's always banging on about.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

It's been really interesting to sort of notice the candidates who are being talked about in recent months actually largely omitted from these conversations. And on the one hand you've got Wes Streaking, but you've also got Angela Rayner, neither of whom seem anywhere near the same sort of level in terms of momentum behind them as Andy Burnham. Wes treating, obviously could be accused of sort of slightly precipitating or at least strongly fomenting the kind of frustration towards Keir Starmer in that he is effectively the sort of first Cabinet minister to resign over all this. John Healy obviously followed him out the door for different reasons. But in West Reading's case, I think there have been questions asked about why he didn't trigger a contest at the time. Was it because he didn't have the numbers, the requisite 1/5 of Labour MPs to trigger 1, which amounts to 81? And I speak to even allies of West Reading who say they think it's very unlikely that he stands against Andy Burnham. Now they say that he does have the numbers, but ultimately he knows that he would lose a contest and that he is in a stronger position, therefore, to use the threat of triggering a contest to try and leverage the most senior job possible out of Andy Burnham all the way up potentially to the top of the Cabinet as Chancellor of the Exchequer. And therefore he is trying to keep his cards close to his chest instead of going sort of full bluster and being out there kind of pushing and talking about why Andy Burnham wouldn't be the right person for the country and why he is. That's why there is almost a little bit of a sort of accepted stalemate going on between the candidates, because I think they largely realize that Andy Burnham has it sort of sewn up.

[Luke Jones]

So if the wind is in Andy Burnham's sails as he heads south going into this week, what kind of a prime minister might he be? We'll discuss that in a second.

[Andy Burnham]

Foreign.

[Hannah Previtt]

Here from the Business podcast, join me for a special episode with PwC UK's Marco Amitrano and WPP's Michael Froelish, recorded at the Greater Together Conference in Los Angeles, California. We'll discuss how partnerships between the US and the UK can drive economic growth and shape the future of transatlantic collaboration. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Marco Amitrano or Michael Froelish]

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[Aubrey Allegretti]

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[Luke Jones]

Aubrey we're talking about the, well, political stasis that we've had over the weekend and now who knows what going into this week. But as you were saying a moment ago, quite clear. Well, as our colleague Patrick Maguire seems to be very clear on this, you know, Andy Burnham is going to be Prime Minister. It's going to happen soon is what he's been saying. Ever since Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by election, there's been a lot of dissecting Andy Burnham's track record as the Mayor of Greater Manchester. Are you clear what Burnham ism, Manchesterism and all of that might actually mean for being Prime Minister of the whole uk?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

Well, there are certainly like big question marks still over what an Andy Burnham premiership would look like. And that's slightly strange insofar as he's not a new political figure. He's been in frontline politics for well over 20 years, both as a sort of backbench Labour MP who then went onto the front bench in Gordon Brown's government, obviously running the Health Department at the tail end of that time, fast forwarding through to spending at least seven years in opposition before becoming the Mayor of Greater Manchester and now obviously having returned to Parliament. And there are lots of Labour mps I speak to who are worried that the Burnham Premiership is going to be much less prepared than they would like. They say effectively look at some of the big issues that we encountered when we came into office. That was despite access talks which effectively facilitated, for about seven months before the general election, senior discussions between the Civil Service and Shadow Secretaries of State who could start to gauge how their polities would work in practice and understand Whitehall structures and how they could implement the things that they wanted to do. But people were sort of quite surprised by this sense that actually there was quite a lot of drift even when the government started and it took them some time to get going. Labour MPs say that would be manifested 10 times over with Andy Burnham. And it could be made worse by potentially a shorter, truncated timeline for Keir Starmer's departure. If Keir Starmer would say, I'm going to resign in four weeks time and hand over, then it gives very little time to Andy Burnham to assemble a team, both in terms of his advisors that be working with him in number 10 and sort of top team of cabinet colleagues, but also obviously ministers that fill out the more than 100 roles responsible for running the different parts of government. That's just in addition to, I suppose, being able to formulate his own thoughts about things that he's never really had to consider before. The first decision the Prime Minister usually takes, for example, is what are you going to do in the sort of event of a nuclear missile being launched and having to write a note? It starts at that very top level, decision making, and it gets quite granular quite quickly.

[Luke Jones]

Are you expecting a wholesale clear out of government, of Cabinet and of Ministers, and actually we just need new brooms everywhere, or will there be some hangers on, do you think?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I think there's definitely going to be quite a significant shift in direction and that will sort of be from probably the treasury downwards. So the kind of names being floated at the moment are principally Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, who again is no stranger to City Traders, who've been sort of following his ascent through the ranks for very closely. Other potentials would be Wes Streeting, of course, who's trying to leverage for that position, and even Shabana Mahmood, the current Home Secretary. So those three figures effectively are quite well known to people and have already served in the Cabinet for a while. You've got some outsiders as well. So people like Louise Hague, the former Transport Secretary, who only spent a little bit of time in Government before she was forced to resign, and others like John Healey, the former Defence Secretary, who actually was a Treasury Minister, I think, during the Blair government. And people have been saying, oh, well, you know, he's got the sort of treasury experience. It avoids any more rows between the MoD and the treasury over the Defense investment plan. But there are lots of people that Andy Burnham is going to have to weigh up rewarding because of the way that they have helped sort of catapult him back into number 10. And that does include people like Louise Hague. It also includes others like Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader, who is obviously the only Cabinet minister fired by Keir Starmer in the last reshuffle in September 2020, and Angela Rayner, who also was forced to sort of leave the Cabinet on that occasion. So a lot of the names being talking about are quite well known already. And Andy Burnham, given that he hasn't been an MP for eight years, his contacts and his network is very much with the sort of establishment part of the Labour Party. And what I mean by that is people who've been serving for as long as he has, he doesn't really know the 2024 intake of Labour MPs that, well, they might have been going up to Manchester and traipsing to Makefield en masse to kiss the ring, as it was put, to effectively curry favour with him. But I think the direction will probably be and feel quite different. But actually he won't sort of diverge too explicitly from the manifesto to avoid the criticism that he's obviously trying to implement loads of policies that he doesn't have a mandate for. And also he just has to reward all those people who've been effectively responsible for maneuvering him back into this very powerful position.

[Luke Jones]

So you could then forgive the casual observer for saying, okay, well, if it's a sort of reshuffle of names we already know and love or not, and broadly sticking to the 2024 manifesto, what changes, what shifts the direction of government so fundamentally that it gets the Labour Party out of this sticky opinion poll? Messed with at the moment, totally.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I mean, it's a really good question. And in fact, Simon Case, the former Cabinet secretary, was effectively warning Labour MPs on Sunday about falling into the trap of just thinking that you'll be a better communicator or effectively sort of vibe coding your government agenda, to borrow a very sort of Gen Z 2026 word. So there are big questions about how much this is really going to sort of substantively change the look. And, well, certainly the look of the Labour Party, I think the feel is quite explicit. And I have, you know, Labour ministers who go, I just forgot what it felt like to feel happy, to feel like we could win and that actually that taking the fight to reform is. Is doable. And so a lot of it is about feeling and vibes because three years out from the general election, a lot of Labour mps are looking down the barrel of losing their seats. And so they just want to sort of feel that sense of confidence and buoyancy. Andy Burnham's biggest challenge will be harnessing that sort of hunger, slight anger and frustration at the Westminster bubble. The establishment, the elite, the established way of doing things in Whitehall and Westminster whilst being in government. That's going to be really hard for him to straddle.

[Luke Jones]

And is there. I mean, you mentioned the EU there. Of course, Andy Burnham's had a little sort of a flip flop of late in terms of whether he thinks we should rejoin the EU sharpish. Are there any big policy areas where you feel like he would diverge from what we have with Labour and Starmer?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I mean, it's an interesting question and you almost sort of want to take everything he says with a slight pinch of salt. Because in addition to the sort of slight U turn on his language about rejoining the eu, you also had it with the fiscal rules. Him previously having said that Britain shouldn't be in hocked the bond markets and then during this campaign, effectively Signing up to continue Rachel Reeves's rules that constrict how how much you can sort of spend and borrow. He also u turned seemingly on the waspy women, the people who claim that they were sort of not properly told about the state pension age rising for women and initially suggesting that they should get some sort of financial compensation and then less than 24 hours later saying that actually that matter was basically closed and the most they should probably expect was a bus pass. So there is I think still quite a lot of room for maneuver within in what a Burnham sort of manifesto for change looks like. There are some quite radical sort of economic ideas that he's espoused in the past. He's favoured a land tax to replace council tax. He's suggested that there could be a 10p starting rate of income tax for the lowest earners and raising the sort of highest level to 50p for top earners. He's certainly been very bullion about reform of the House of Lords which I think Labour is been pretty slow on so far. It's obviously got rid of hereditaries and it's going to look at imposing an age limit. But we're a very long way away from Labour's original pledge to abolish the House of Lords completely. So there are some sort of big changes that Burnham Mizzen would probably represent. He also talked in his victory speech on Friday morning after winning the seeker to make a field and the three things he name checked were an end to trickle down economic, creating more sort of vocational and training routes for young people so they didn't feel like they had to go to university, although that is already something being done quite explicitly by the Government. And the third thing he said was an end to HMO Britain houses of multiple occupancy. In his sort of frustrations at how asylum seekers and sort of migrants are being housed in these HMOs I heard

[Andy Burnham]

on so many doorsteps people's concerns about the unfairness of the immigration system, that cut price approach to procurement. That means areas like this can end up like HMO Britain. It's not fair that they think that they can just operate like that and not hear the call of people here, the decent people here who always will do the right thing, the compassionate thing, but not when it's unfair.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

So there are some substantive changes that would be likely under Andy Burnham, but it's not quite clear whether he's fully committed to them yet.

[Luke Jones]

Yes, and how are some of the other parties, do we think, responding to this? And I'm thinking particularly of reform. If when you look at the opinion polls, it suggests that they would win a future general election as things stand, I mean, are they looking at Burnham and thinking, oh, no, yeah.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I mean, reform's been in an interesting position because it's obviously had great success at the local elections that came second in Wales and managed to come third place in Scotland. So it's by no means to sort of deride their electoral performance, but it's undoubted that they've sort of dipped in the opinion polls a bit from their kind of highs of the low 30s, that kind of now sort of trending in the high 20s. They have lost a series of by elections now on the bounce as well. And for a sort of insurgent party, by elections are a key chance for you to effectively give the government the day a kicking. So I think they will be feeling pretty nervous about. About Andy Burnham's expected route to number 10. Reformers obviously tried to make a virtue out of the fact that it thinks it can dismantle the Red Wall, and they've set their sights on places in the Northeast, particularly like Middlesbrough, for the local elections next year. I suppose Andy Burnham's challenge will be magnifying Manchesterism, the big sort of banner under which all of his fiscal devolution and sort of economic policy flows from that. Does it extend to all parts of the north as well as the Midlands, the South, the Home Counties, lots of places where Labour's arguably new traditional heartlands sit in those kind of metropolitan areas in London? And is he going to be well placed to sort of keep that progressive vote just as consolidated, so that he brings the Greens with him as well as Reform voters?

[Luke Jones]

And just finally, Aubrey, I mean, as you spend yet another Sunday working speculating about another change in Prime Minister or political turmoil, I mean, when you sit back and look at all the turmoil we have had in the last decade, I mean, are you one of those people who thinks that this is the way it is going to be now? It is structural, Britain is ungovernable, as people say. Or do you think this is just a bout of speedy transitions, as we have seen in. In previous decades of British politics as well?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

I was gonna say, I mean, it's undoubtable that obviously there has been a lot of turbulence recently, but it's not without precedent in history that there have been prime ministers who came in midterm. And as much as Kirst Armour's allies have been muttering sort of under their breath for months now that the Tories change leader Twice. And look what it did to them in the last Parliament. They sort of neglect to remember the previous parliament whereby Boris Johnson effectively ousted and took over from Theresa May and managed to lead the Tories back to a majority. So I'm not one of those that thinks that changing leaders is a sort of sin in and of itself. I think the way in which the transition is handled could dictate quite a lot. Whether or not the public really backs this or not. It's certainly clear that that Keir Starmer is pretty uniquely unpopular. And so people say our quibble is not necessarily with the Labour Party or the government, it's with an individual. And so replacing Keir Starmer may actually really improve the party in a lot of voters minds. But if it's a sort of summer of navel gazing, a red on red contest in which people sort of tear chunks out of each other while voters sort of sat there worrying about how much the energy bills are going to rise in the autumn and the winter inflation remaining sort of stubborn for now, but potentially ticking upwards. If there is renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, then I think there's the sort of potential for real palpable tension and anger amongst people who will think that effectively labor is turning in on itself in exactly the same way as the Tories did.

[Luke Jones]

I mean, a lot of column interests will be written about this maybe in the weeks to come, but do you think it was always going to be like this for Starmer? Did it always have to maybe end like this?

[Aubrey Allegretti]

No, it absolutely wasn't inevitable. Even speaking to some of his allies and most ardent supporters, they really do sort of scratch their heads to figure out why he hasn't been able to understand people's concerns, stop making unforced errors and effectively be a little bit less belligerent, more emollient and take more responsibility for things instead of kind of firing others. He's really not made himself many friends in the party and it's been a sort of very slow death spiral for him over the last arguably about 20 months now, ever since the big sort of winter fuel announcement in, I think it was late summer, early autumn in 2024. So I don't think it was inevitable to get to this point at all. It seems to have been a misreading at the start of, of this government's big sort of flagship majority agenda setting win that actually it was this huge endorsement for the Labour Party and Keir Starmer as an individual. Instead of voters just being six the back teeth of the Conservatives and pushing that big red button for change yet again. And actually they didn't necessarily mind exactly how it manifested. It's just that labor were the ones offering it it sort of most easily to voters. And I don't think that Keir Starmer has properly appreciated people's frustration and impatience for that change.

[Luke Jones]

Aubrey, pleasure as always. Thank you.

[Aubrey Allegretti]

Thank you, Luke.

[Luke Jones]

That was Aubrey Allegretti, Times Chief political Correspondent. There is plenty more on this story, of course, [e-mail] if you've got a subscription. Your views on this are always welcome. Thestoryatthetimes.com should you wish to email us. That's about it from US today. Today's producer was Michaela Arneson. The executive producer was Harry Stott with sound design by Harry Stott and also theme composition by Malicetto. I'm Luke Jones. See you soon.

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