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- [00:01]
Barclays Investment Bank Host
From globalization to innovation sustainability to market volatility, there's always more than one side to a story. Explore different perspectives on today's most important business and economic issues with the Flipside podcast from Barclays Investment Bank. Hear two research analysts in a lively debate and get insights from every angle. To further inform your view. Listen to the Flipside on your favorite platform.
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Interviewer/Presenter
School's almost out and at Abercrombie Kids,
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Lara Spirit
new warm weather staples are in. It's a one stop shop for everything
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Interviewer/Presenter
on their checklist, like tees, shorts and
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Lara Spirit
swim, so planning what they'll wear is a breeze.
- [00:40]
Interviewer/Presenter
For outfits that keep up with them
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Lara Spirit
and easier mornings for you, stop by Abercrombie Kids Shop in the app, online and in stores.
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Interviewer/Presenter
From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Manveen Rana.
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Lara Spirit
So Wes street in the Health Secretary has resigned from Keir Starmer's cabinet.
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Interviewer/Presenter
In a long day of political intrigue and Labour Party psychodrama, Wes Streeting finally, in a much previewed move, quit the Cabinet.
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Lara Spirit
He has said in this letter, having lost confidence in your leadership, I have concluded it would be dishonorable and unprincipled to remain in post, he says. Where we need vision, we have a vacuum.
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Interviewer/Presenter
But Streeting wasn't the only Labour leadership hopeful lining up to join the race.
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Lara Spirit
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister,
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Barclays Investment Bank Host
says she paid HMRC £40,000 and has
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Lara Spirit
been cleared of wrongdoing in the investigation into her tax affairs.
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Barclays Investment Bank Host
It has paved the way for her
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Lara Spirit
possible leadership bid against Keir Starmer. Another potential leadership rival is the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. He's pulled out of his regular BBC Radio Manchester slot this morning. Oh, and an additional development. Al Khan's the defence minister. He shimmied up Everest recently. As it happens, he has a long piece in the New Statesman magazine setting out his diagnosis of why Labour is in so much trouble.
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Interviewer/Presenter
A crowd of potential contestants have been jostling for a place at the starting line, but no one has fired the starting gun.
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Lara Spirit
But importantly, we're Streeting has not yet triggered a leadership challenge. Those two things are different. A leadership challenge and the resignation.
- [02:43]
Interviewer/Presenter
So what happens now? Has Wes Streeting bottled it? Will someone else throw their hat in the ring? Or has Keir Starmer somehow managed to cling on. The story today, labor at.
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Lara Spirit
I actually just bumped into Wes Streeting. Would you believe it, when I was pushing my bike in to come up to the office.
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Interviewer/Presenter
That's Lara Spirit, deputy political editor at the Sunday Times. She's been in Westminster surrounded by chaos
- [03:30]
Lara Spirit
all day, him and his age were walking past me. They were not looking visibly morose, but we didn't stop to chat. But it has been an extraordinary day in Westminster. Of course, we woke up thinking that we were going to have the resignation by Wes treating the Health Secretary. And not only that, but an attempt to trigger a leadership contest to challenge Sikhist Dahmer for the Labour leadership. In the end, what we had at lunchtime today was a resignation, an excoriating resignation letter to accompany it, but no formal triggering of a leadership contest, and a huge amount of argument and debate about the reasons for that, whether or not Wes Reaching ever had the requisite 81 MPs he needed, or whether or not he's actually being strategic and thinking about other dynamics here in instead. So we're in something of a kind of holding pattern in Westminster, where we're obviously waiting to see what this means. But on the face of it, Keir Starmer is still in a vulnerable position. You know, he's got close to 90 MPs who are calling for him to set out a timeline to go. And we've only got, you know, a little over 100 MPs, really, who have signed this letter in his support. We've got a huge number who are withholding their judgment for now. And so we're really in a quite difficult position for Keir Starmer, but we're not necessarily in a brilliant position for any of his rivals either.
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Interviewer/Presenter
What a remarkable position to be in. And before we get into the details of all of that and all of the candidates and where they stand, just tell us, what sort of a week has this been? It does feel like it's just been frenetic and I'm sick of hearing the word febrile. What is the atmosphere in Westminster like? And has your whatsapps been in absolute meltdown?
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Lara Spirit
Yes, they have. And it has been a crazy few days in Westminster. I mean, we obviously had the results. They were terrible for Labour, I mean, really abysmal for Labour. And from that point onwards, it's just proven very difficult for Starmer. I mean, we had that intervention from Catherine west, the Labour mp, on Saturday, calling for Starmer to set out a timeline, saying that she could even launch her own bid if he didn't. We had a huge number of MPs, dozens and dozens of Labour MPs, who have been calling for him to go or set out a timeline. And we've also had this long running question of where the Cabinet sits. Who in the Cabinet is still supporting Selma, who has gone to try and urge him to go. And of course we know that some have. We know that we're streeting at their meeting yesterday, their so called coffee that lasted barely 17 minutes, that he told the Prime Minister that he no longer had confidence in him. But we also know that Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, some time ago suggested he should set out a timeline for his departure, that Shabana Mahmoud, the Home Secretary, had gone to see him on Monday night to say the same, that Yvette Cooper said the same. So clearly this is not a brilliant position for the Prime Minister to be in, but nor is it clear how it ends or resolves itself either.
- [06:12]
Interviewer/Presenter
I mean, Lara, that. That is just remarkable. You've got a Prime Minister and all the biggest beasts in Cabinet around him don't seem to think he's up to the job. I mean, what are you hearing from backbenchers and people in the Labour Party? How has this not been resolved?
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Lara Spirit
I mean, I think the MPs that I've spoken to are pretty despondent. You know, those who would like to see Sama go at some point, or indeed not lead them into the next election, are not massively happy with how this has all gone, don't necessarily think it's been a massively edifying display for the Labour Party. And I think that you can see why they would think that. But the party is not united behind an alternative to Keir Starmer. And I think that for those who were hoping or their instinct was to avoid a contest, try and give Starmer the benefit of the doubt. He's done a number of things since the election results which were bad, which have made them think twice and have made them feel even worse about this current situation.
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Interviewer/Presenter
And talk us through those. What are the things that have really sort of made people feel uncomfortable?
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Lara Spirit
So we had those results, they were terrible. On Saturday morning, we had news that something was afoot, I was told in number 10. And what we saw then was Baroness Harmon appointed an advisory position on tackling violence against women and girls. And Gordon Brown, the former Labour Prime Minister appointed to an envoy role on global finance. Now, I am not suggesting that those roles aren't important at all or that those briefs aren't very, very significant. But I think for Labour MPs who wanted to see intervention, that was huge in scale and really spoke to the level of historic defeat and collapse in the Labour vote that we saw to multiple parties and in multiple directions and in multiple parts of the country, that that wasn't up to it as an intervention. So we had that. That wasn't a big bold reshuffle or anything. It was these two appointments that I think they hoped would bring along Labour MPs. I haven't spoken to a single Labour MP who was convinced by those to then back the Prime Minister. Then you had obviously Catherine West's intervention. What I'm doing is I'm trying to wake everybody up to the reality that unless we act quickly to put together our messaging and our strategy for the next two years, we will end up like our colleagues in local government and we will end up with the electoral colour of the country being light blue. And so that's why I'm saying that unless I hear from members, then I will be putting my name forward to do that. But then on Monday you had this big so called recess speech from Starmer which nobody had forced him to do. You know, number 10 had instigated this speech. This was something that they wanted to do that they thought was going to help them reset the narrative and persuade Labour MPs who might be wavering to row in behind him and back him. And there'd been a huge amount of speculation about what had been in this speech. You know, I'd been reporting about a number of different things that he might mention. So we knew he was going to talk about Europe, we knew that he was going to talk about an offer for young people, for example. But I think we were expecting something big in that speech, or at least we were expecting both in policy terms, something substantial and appreciation that something bold was going to be needed for these MPs to back him. But also, I think, dispositionally and in character, a real sense of the wall with Keir Starmer falling and a real kind of reckoning with those Labour MPs during this speech that he really, really understood the gravity of the situation, that he wasn't being stubborn, that he understood that nothing less than massive, bold change from him and a sense of responsibility would cut it at this point. And I take responsibility, but it's not just about taking responsibility for the results. It's about taking responsibility to explain how as a political and electoral force we will be better and do better in the months and years ahead. And Labour MPs were not convinced on the whole that he showed them that at all. I mean, even Starmer allies, I should say that I've spoken to were like, it was terrible. I mean, even the staunchest of Starmer allies were like, that speech was terrible and indeed are at a loss as to why he gave it in the first place, given that that's not his natur thing. Nobody thinks that Khala is a brilliant speech maker or that that's the value that he brings to that post. So they were bemused by that, I think. And you know, we saw a huge number of MPs after that point state that they no longer had confidence in the Prime Minister in one form or another. So that clearly did not help. The following morning we had a make or break cabinet meeting. So Tuesday morning, I can't believe how much has happened this week, Mandy. Tuesday morning we had this. At this make or break cabinet meeting where it was very, very tightly controlled, Starmer did not want to speak about leadership really at all during this cabinet meeting. Instead they wanted to talk about the Iran conflict and the possible consequences of that for the British economy along with some other issues. But Starmer did say if you've got problems, you can come and talk to me about these. And reportedly where's treating tried to and was momentarily rebuffed. He then went to see the Prime Minister on Wednesday morning. Now, Wednesday was the day of the King's speech, of course, a crucial day because this was the third moment in this so called reset. So you have those appointments on the Saturday, you have the speech on the Monday and then have this King Speech. And that is essentially setting out the big legislative program for the next year, year and a half for this government and saying, look at all these amazing bills, you know, more than 30 of them. They are going to define this government. They are the reason why we deserve this extra big shot. And they're bold and they're big, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And Mr. Speaker, it's a King Speech for the backbone of this country, for working people who worry about the cost of living, want their town centres to thrive, their public services to work, their government to be on their side. And Mr. Speaker, we are. Because the heart of this programme is a plan to make Britain stronger and Britain fairer. On this morning, Wes treating goes and sees the Prime Minister and as we now know basically tells him he didn't have confidence in him. We then had the King's Speech and what we'd originally heard was you're not going to hear anything from Wes Dr. Eating on a Wednesday because he has such reverence for the Royal family, which is true by the way, but that, you know, this is the day of the King's Speech. This is the day when the King is going to come. There's all this pomp and ceremony. It's a massive constitutional moment. This is not a day for leadership speculation. But the Times broke the story, I think, less than half an hour before the King's Speech begun, that Wes Trishin was going to resign the following day. That obviously set Westbister, you know, into a kind of blaze of speculation and chatter and for many in Keir Starmer's camp, I'm sure, panic. And we then had this weird spectacle of the King's Speech happening at the point at which Keir Starmer's premiership had never been more vulnerable. Fast forward to Thursday. We wake up. We're expecting, of course, we're streating to launch a leadership bid, but it looks like things have slightly changed now. Here's where it's interesting, because West Treating needs 81 MPs to be able to formally launch a leadership contest, right? That's part of the party rules, so 20% of the parliamentary party. There is a big argument happening now about whether or not he had those MPs. They are saying the Wes team. Yes, we did. And there were various reasons why we didn't launch the leadership bid today and why instead we resigned. But it's not because we didn't have the backers. Obviously those in the Starmer camp are saying he never had the numbers and he wasn't going to be able to challenge. But come 1pm or shortly after 1pm, we had the emergence of the resignation letter from Wes Streeting, which set out in really strong terms why he was resigning, how he felt there'd been a vacuum of leadership, how he felt that others had fallen on their swords for Starmer and how he just felt that this couldn't go on. It also said, by the way, that he wanted a proper contest, a proper chance for there to be ideas. And as a result of that, I think we've ended up in a place where Wes hasn't launched a formal leadership election, but nor has he really given Starmer a get out of jail free card. You know, Salma's still not in a very good position at all, but we're now really in a period of profound uncertainty about what happens next.
- [13:38]
Interviewer/Presenter
And Lara, just talk us through that, because it does feel a bit like it's like Schrodinger's leadership challenge. Has it happened? Has it not happened? Why hasn't he triggered it now? What is he waiting for?
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Lara Spirit
So this is the crux of it. So you need 81 MPs. They're saying we had the MPs, but look, it's difficult, because a lot of the MPs that might have backed us or that would have backed us would have had to resign to do so, because their ministers, for example, they're on the payroll. That would have been massively destabilising and we weren't necessarily prepared to, you know, throw the whole government into chaos in order to do this. And they also felt that having Andy Burnham as part of this contest would be important. Now, Andy Burnham, who I've not mentioned properly yet, but the Mayor of Greater Manchester, seen by many on the soft left of the party as the solution right now, not we're Streeting, but he is the person who they say, look, he's very popular in the polls. We want him to come back, we want to give him a path towards becoming an MP and we want to allow him to stand again. Now, he was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by election in February by the party's ruling committee, which is controlled by Starmer allies. It's been traditionally assumed that Wes Streeting would want to launch a bid in circumstances where Andy Burton hadn't yet been able to come back to Parliament because that would be the window of opportunity for him. But he's saying in this letter, we should have a proper contest, it should be longer. That's kind of been interpreted as meaning that we should allow Andy Burnham and others in the party an opportunity to fully stand in, to make their case for where they should go next.
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Interviewer/Presenter
And Lara, in what has already been a frenzied day in Westminster, there's been yet another announcement. As things stand, just talk us through. What does Andy Burnham's path back to Parliament look like?
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Lara Spirit
So, as recently as this afternoon, it was not clear how Andy Burnham would make it back to Parliament. We'd heard plenty of times from his allies that he did have a seat, that he had some. Somebody who was willing to step aside and that he could then stand in a by election in that constituency. But we did not know who that was until we learned that Josh Simons, of course, a former minister, was happy to stand aside in Makerfield and to allow Burnham a path to Parliament. And Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, now confirming that he will request the permission of the NEC to stand in that by election. We should say the NEC is the party's ruling governing body. It is the body that in February blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Ben by election. And it is understood this time round that Burnham will have a much easier path to stand. I think it's pretty well recognised across the party and in government that it would be very difficult for Starmer, given the damage that recent weeks have done to his authority, for him to be blocked to stand in this seat now.
- [16:14]
Interviewer/Presenter
And how likely is it that he'd win, given the sort of popularity of the Labour Party at the local elections? And what does that mean for a leadership challenge?
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Lara Spirit
Well, reform did very well in the wards in this constituency in the recent elections last week. So Andy Burnham does not by any means have an easy run here. But clearly it will be an opportunity for him to test this case that his allies have been making, that he is very popular.
- [16:37]
Interviewer/Presenter
And Lara, there is an indication from the Starmer camp, obviously that if there is a leadership challenge, he will be standing in it. I mean, the Daily Star, but perhaps a little too soon, have launched exactly what they did for Liz Truss, which is that they've launched the lettuce challenge. The lettuce is back for Keir Starmer, but at this stage I'm betting on Keir Starmer outlasting the lettuce.
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Lara Spirit
Are you? That's interesting. I mean, given that NEC contests are usually a little longer than the lifespan of a lettuce, I would probably bet that even in the kind of worst case scenario for Starmer at the moment he's got a few weeks left.
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Interviewer/Presenter
I mean, a few weeks more than a lettuce.
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Lara Spirit
I mean, as with all of these things, who knows? But I think it's obviously not looking fantastic from a long term perspective for Starmer. Even if he's seen off this immediate threat from where's in the most immediate term, it's still the case that a huge number of his MPs are not backing him. A huge number more are not saying that they're backing him or have not made up their final minds. And some in his cabinet have privately gone to him and said that they don't back him either, but are obviously wary of destabilizing the party and themselves haven't resigned. He is not out of the woods by any stretch at all. And we're just gonna have to wait and see how that pans out.
- [17:53]
Interviewer/Presenter
Coming up, who are the other runners and riders in the leadership challenge that isn't? And what would a contest mean for the business of government over the next few months? We'll have all of that and more in just a moment.
- [18:16]
Barclays Investment Bank Host
From globalization to innovation sustainability to market volatility, there's always more than one side to a story. Explore different perspectives on today's most important business and economic issues. With the Flipside Podcast from Barclays Investment Bank. Hear two research analysts in a lively debate and get insights from every angle. To further inform your view, listen to the Flipside on your favorite platform. DISH has been connecting communities like yours for the last 45 years, providing the TV you love at a price you can trust. Watch live sports news and the latest movies, plus your favorite streaming apps all in one place. Switch to Dish today and lock in the lowest price in satellite TV starting at $89.99 a month with our two year price guarantee. Call 888-@dish or visit dish.com today. We've all heard those scary IRS radio ads that try to frighten you into calling, but Tax Relief Advocates is different. If you owe the IRS $5,000, $50,000 or even $500,000, TRA has a solution for your tax problem. It doesn't matter if you're in your car or at work or with your kids, no matter where you are, visit tra.com don't lose hope. TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe. Their passion is taxes and helping people and businesses fix IRS problems. They have over a thousand five star Google reviews and an A rating with the Better Business Bureau. You no longer need to fear the irs. Generous tax relief programs are available now to give you a fresh start. So don't wait. Simply visit tra.com that's tra.com or call 800-583-6428. Once again, that's 800-583-6428. Tax relief advocates Real solutions for real people.
- [20:23]
Interviewer/Presenter
Lara, you've been talking us through the uncertainty of the leadership challenge that wasn't and when it might come. What we haven't spoken about, though, is the other potential candidates. So on Thursday morning, everyone woke up expecting the headlines to be full of Wes Streeting resigning. Instead, they were full of Andrew Rainer paying up her hmrc. Fine, Talk us through that. Is she, is she preparing to stand?
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Lara Spirit
So the those close to Rainer that I've spoken to are saying, you know, no, basically, you know, she'd be open to it if there was a contest, but she's not preparing to launch a bid right now. And she wants to be a team player. I mean, you heard her say this this morning herself, that she wants to be a team player. So let's see what she does now. But essentially she has been cleared by hmrc, although there are some lingering questions about the extent to which that is unambiguous at this stage for this question which forced her to resign last year in September last year over whether or not she should have paid stamp duty on a flat in Hove, an £800,000 flat in Hove. Now, if she's paid the £40,000 that she owed. Now, the question or not is whether she was careless in that, whether or not she should have sought essentially proper advice in doing so in circumstances where the Prime Minister's independent advisor had said that actually two lawyers had. Had recommended that she do so and she didn't do so. So there is a kind of, I think, ongoing saw there. The headline, though, is that HMRC have cleared her and that she now feels that she's been totally exonerated and she's back in the market, you know, and even if she's not a leadership contender at this point, she's a massive power broker and she's going to be a really significant player in what comes next, especially when it comes to the soft left and how they respond to the west reaching news and the kind of emerging leadership questions that we'll see over the coming weeks and months, possibly years, who knows?
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Interviewer/Presenter
And with Angela Rayner, I mean, the timing is so interesting, that will probably have hurt Wes Streeting a little bit in gathering names and signatures to have the announcement that Angela Rayner could potentially be in the running. Is she likely to run in a contest herself or is she going to be backing Andy Burnham?
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Lara Spirit
Well, that's the big question. And I think those who are supportive of Andy Burnham have done a phenomenal job in recent weeks of kind of solidifying an emerging consensus that it should be Burnham and not Angela Rayner. And a large part of that was, of course, this tax question. There was also a bigger part, which is he polls a lot better, generally speaking, with members of the public, and that that's something which they care about now, given recent election results. It's something that they think should be a very important part of what comes next. So I think as part of that, you know, Andy Burnham was seen as the frontrunner, but as I've mentioned, he's got a number of hurdles getting in. And so this news of Angela Rayner, I think, will have been a blow in part to the west camp. Not necessarily because they think, oh, my goodness, we're completely terrified of Angela Rayner, even though I think we should say she would be pretty popular with the membership and she would be a significant force against him in any leadership race, but also because the specter of Angela Rayner returning for wavering, centrist Labour MPs who do think that Angela Rayner is too Far to the left. They may now be thinking, actually, hang on a minute, we need to stick with Starmer because we could be risking an Angela Rayner premiership at this point. And that's something that we're fearful of. And so there's a number of dynamics here and a number of ways in which Angela Rayner emerging this morning in the way that she did not as an explicit leadership candidate but as a kind of political force returned is complicating for Wes and has had an impact on the dynamics of this leadership question.
- [23:46]
Interviewer/Presenter
And who are the other potential candidates who might yet emerge?
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Lara Spirit
So we know that Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary was prepared to run if Wes treating was launching a bid and there wasn't a clear candidate from the soft left.
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Interviewer/Presenter
And he polls very well.
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Lara Spirit
Yeah, well he polls very well with members. I mean, let's see on this question, I don't know necessarily how strongly he actually wants it. I mean, this is the question. I think that there's a motivation on the soft left to avoid a Wes treating premiership. But I don't think it's ever been clear that this is something that Ed Miliband is absolutely desperate to do. I should also say that's true of Angela Rayner. I don't think it's not unambiguous what she wants to do necessarily either in this respect. But I think both of them will be motivated significantly by the fact that they don't think that we're streeting should be Prime Minister. So they are significant forces as well, we should say.
- [24:34]
Interviewer/Presenter
So they're the StopWez campaign.
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Lara Spirit
They're the StopWez campaign. Exactly. And then you also have, I mean you have some left field ideas. Alcaans, for example, the armed forces Minister
- [24:45]
Interviewer/Presenter
Lara, talk us through that because most people won't have heard of Alkaans before. And there was a great moment on Times Radio today on Jane and Fee's show. Highly recommend it. Where they actually sort of said for most people who've never heard of him before, they've had an awful lot of people writing in lusting after him.
- [25:01]
Lara Spirit
This is from Simon. Well, it made me laugh, Simon, when Alexander Graham Bell made his first phone call. Al Khan's already had five missed calls. Al Khan's can slam revolving doors. The flu gets an Al Khan shot every year. Al Khan's can kill two stones with one bird. Fantastic stuff. Thank you very much. Imagine there are just millions and millions of people who just had no idea about Al Khan's until it became Al Khan's death. And that is today Al Khan's Thursday. I mean, Al Khan, mystery man. Al Khans has got plenty of supporters.
- [25:33]
Interviewer/Presenter
He seems to have become the people's favourite, at least. So just tell us a bit about him. Who is he, what's his background and why on earth is he in the running?
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Lara Spirit
Yes, so he is a Labour MP and the Armed Forces Minister who has, I think you're correct to say, sort of emerged out of nowhere. I mean, he, you know, is Royal Marines officer and was elected in 2024. And there is a big contingent of MPs who were elected in 2024 who, to be honest, feel like a lot of these members of this cohort have been rejected and sort of neglected by the Labour leadership. And that actually it might be good to have a new face because of his military background. The fact he served in multiple operational tours in Afghanistan, for example, has been awarded the Military Cross, has been also seen as an effective operator on social media as well. He is someone who they might well consider. And we should say that there are a number of MPs, particularly in that 2024 cohort, who would quite like to see him have a punt for the top job. Now, his position, or the position that those close to him have articulated to me is, no, we need to get this right. He's not going to launch a contest. And actually, if Wes3 team launches a contest and Keir Starmer decides to run in that contest, which at the moment we would expect that he would do, but let's see, that Al Khans wouldn't put himself forward in those circumstances. It would only be if Keir Starmer wasn't in that contest and a contest had been launched. So there's a kind of limited set of circumstances in which we might see the emergence of. Of Al Khans and we should also say some of those MPs that back him might overlap with the Westcap slightly as well. So there's that dynamic too. But he's certainly be seen as sort of, you know, one of the names,
- [27:02]
Interviewer/Presenter
Lara, at this stage, it doesn't feel like anybody is putting themselves forward to trigger the actual leadership challenge. So we don't know if it'll happen at all. But on the off chance that miraculously it does, what does that actually look like? Talk us through the process, because it's been a very long time since we've seen anything like this in the Labour Party.
- [27:21]
Lara Spirit
Yes. So what would essentially happen is if you wanted to run, you would say, I want to run, and I've also got the backing of 81 MPs, that is 20% of the parliamentary party, and you would therefore be entered into the race. Keir Starmer, we should say the Prime Minister would have automatic entry into this. He doesn't need to go around canvassing for support according to the rules. But any other contenders that want to throw their hat in the ring do need to find AC1 MPs to be able to do so. And then you enter into a question where the nec, the party's ruling body, will determine what a time frame could be for that, and that will go to the members. Now, the members will vote according to preference, so they'll list the candidates in terms of preference. And that's significant, I think, as well, given you might see for Keir Starmer, if he was in that race, he might perhaps do slightly better on second preferences and that might help him in some indirect way. But let's see. But that is essentially how this works. It is the members who get the say in this. It is a small selectorate who would decide the country's next Prime Minister. We've seen that with the Conservative Party before. I've covered that, particularly in the summer of 2022, when, after Boris Johnson departed and Liz Truffs triumphed. This is still. Every time this happens, there is a question of democratic legitimacy. And I think, having spoken to some senior figures in the Reform Party, for example, they are very excited about the prospect of a leadership election, because regardless of who won one, they would be saying immediately, we need a general election. Now, this person doesn't have a democratic mandate to run, and we'd be kind of forthright about making sure that we made that case for an instant election with this process.
- [28:48]
Interviewer/Presenter
You know, you've talked us through what happens if there is a leadership challenge and Keir Starmer stands. What if Keir Starmer, and he's shown no indication so far of wanting to do this, but if he did suddenly decide to resign, or as lots of people were saying to him earlier this week, if he set out a timetable for resigning, how does that change the dynamic? What's the process look like then?
- [29:09]
Lara Spirit
Well, again, then you would have a situation where the NEC would have, again, quite a lot of control over how this works and the rules on this. And we know that you would have to be an mp, crucially, to be able to enter into this, you'd have to be a Labour mp, which is why, for Andy Burnham, this is very significant and the timing would be very significant, because if you're the nec, do you Give the election enough time to make sure that Andy Burnham does have the possibility of fighting and winning a by election. Before you therefore put the question to the members, I mean, there's been a suggestion that the Burnham camp think that this could be done and dusted in the space of about three months. Now, I think that's quite ambitious, but let's see where, where we end up on that question, because that would be quite important.
- [29:46]
Interviewer/Presenter
And if it is done and dusted in three months, that's still three months of effectively a lame duck leader and a process that's ongoing and probably involving ministers and Cabinet. What happens to government, to the business of government, while that's all going on?
- [30:01]
Lara Spirit
So I remember 2022, and it's definitely the case that government slows down when this happens. This is obviously a case that people in the starboard camp are making at the moment because they're saying, look, we're about to head into a recession, we're having a really difficult time dealing with the economic fallout of, of the Iran war, and there's going to be a very difficult set of cost of living questions that we're going to have to answer. And do we really want to be fighting amongst ourselves in circumstances where the public are going to be really hurting? And that's the case that they are making at this point, which is, you know, however you cut, however you cut it and however much goodwill there is in the civil service and in government, it is very, very hard when you have this much leadership uncertainty or a leadership race to make sure that the decisions are being made as well as they would be if you didn't.
- [30:40]
Interviewer/Presenter
And these days, so much of Westminster is also governed by the bond markets. There'll be a real fear of what this means for them and for the state of the economy. Do we have any sense if the public actually want this kind of change?
- [30:51]
Lara Spirit
Well, the public do say in poll after poll that they think that Starmer should resign. And, you know, pollsters like Joe Twyman at Delta Poll, for example, have set this out before that. That is often actually just a kind of measure of how dissatisfied people are with Starmer as a leader, as opposed to perhaps any firm indication of the fact they actually want him to go or they actually want a particular candidate. So I think we need to look more closely at some of the polling regarding what people actually want going forward, because I think there is a question about whether or not once you inject this level of uncertainty, it does damage the party brand and the government brand. And this is something that MPs are thinking about quite actively at the moment.
- [31:27]
Interviewer/Presenter
And Lara, if nothing changes, if there is no leadership challenge triggered anytime soon, if Starmer limps on, is he hugely undermined and weakened anyway? I mean, there's a fear, I suppose, of it being like the John Major days where he can carry on trying to govern, but actually even controlling his own party, let alone the country, gets harder and harder.
- [31:49]
Lara Spirit
Yeah. I mean, frankly, yes, like, it's hard to see how he is immediately removed short of a real Cabinet rebellion at this point, but it's also very hard to see how he continues in a way that's effective because, as you say, you have had a massive damage to his reputation. You've got some 90 MPs who publicly want him to go, probably more who want him privately to go. You've had members of the Cabinet who have expressed their reservations to him. You've had a big, big Cabinet resignation. Where streeting one of the titans of Labour in recent years and a serious leadership contender in his own right, who has left government on account of these reservations and who now is free to articulate them on the public stage as well. This is not boding well for Starbucks Stama. And he's entering into a period of serious economic uncertainty, or to the extent there is certainty it's going to be bad. I mean, essentially, just in a simple way like this is going to be really difficult. It's going to prompt more difficult government decisions on how to support people. It's going to be difficult for the public finances and it's going to be very difficult for voters financially too. So all of that, I think, coalesces into a situation which is really, really, really hard for Starmer, regardless of whether or not he remains without a leadership challenge going forward.
- [33:10]
Interviewer/Presenter
That was Lara Spirit, deputy political editor of the Sunday Times. And if you'd like more on the meltdown in Westminster, tune in to our sister podcast, the State of It, which released an emergency episode yesterday afternoon and we'll put a link to it in the description of this episode. The producers today were Sophie McNulty and Harry Bly. The executive producer was Edward Drummond, and theme composition and sound design were by Malicetto. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.
- [33:45]
Barclays Investment Bank Host
Sa.
- [34:13]
Lara Spirit
Today's markets move fast. Get the insights you need in 10 minutes with the Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank. Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week. So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, the Barclays Brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today. Stay sharp, stay brief. Find Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.
- [34:42]
Barclays Investment Bank Host
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