LATEST: Will Farage’s by-election gambit work?

Summary

THE STORY – LATEST: Will Farage’s By-election Gambit Work?
Date: July 8, 2026
Host: Manveen Rana (The Times/Times Radio)
Segment Host: John Pienaar (Times Radio)
Guests: Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent), Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter), Peter Kellner (Journalist, Former YouGov President)

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Overview

This episode tackles the political spectacle created by Nigel Farage’s dramatic resignation as MP for Clacton and his call for a by-election. Framed as a high-stakes move against what Farage calls "the establishment," this strategy is analyzed through reporter commentary, resident interviews, and fresh polling data. The panel unpacks whether Farage’s gamble is a shrewd piece of political theatre or a gimmick likely to backfire.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Farage’s Resignation and By-election Trigger

[02:43-04:35]

• John Pienaar sets the scene: Farage resigned as Clacton's MP, launching a surprise by-election, presenting it as a Farage vs. establishment contest.
• Mainstream parties labeled the move a stunt and announced they will not field candidates.
• Terry Stiasny explains the procedural quirk: MPs cannot technically "resign," so Farage was appointed to the Manor of Northstead, forfeiting his seat. Lib Dems considered delaying, but Chancellor Rachel Reeves declined ("it's a farce, it's a deep distraction." [03:42]).

Notable Quote

• Rachel Reeves, as quoted by Stiasny:
  "If he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won’t stop him." [03:46]
  (A reference to joke candidate Count Binface, highlighting the absurdity in the eyes of major parties.)

Political Boycott and Public Reaction

[04:53-08:27]

• With Labour, the Conservatives, and others boycotting, Farage could run virtually unopposed save for novelty candidates.
• Terry Stiasny: The mainstream parties see the by-election as a distraction, expecting little substantive debate. Farage claims victimhood—saying others are “running away from the battle.”
• Reporter Rosie Wright interviews Clacton residents, capturing a sense of skepticism, confusion, and mixed feelings about Farage’s motives and effectiveness.

Memorable Moments & Resident Quotes

• Skeptical resident:
  "He hasn’t [represented me]. He’s only here for publicity." [06:16, 06:18]
• Supportive resident:
  "He’s a winner, isn’t he? And we need him. We need Nigel. He fought for 25 years on his own. He was like the Geoffrey Boycott of the politicians." [06:39]
• Voter fatigue & apathy:
  "What’s the point of actually wasting my time to vote when they don’t bother?" [06:24]
• Resident on Farage's effectiveness:
  "Well, not much really, because the taxes have gone up and I'm paying much more taxes than I used to do." [08:02]
• Despite criticism, some will still back Farage:
  "I think he can see what’s going on in this country and we’ve had Conservatives, we’ve had Labour, it hasn’t worked. I hope Nigel Farage gets in and gives it to the establishment." [08:13]
• General sentiment captured by Rosie Wright: The by-election is “unnecessary,” a “waste of money,” and “for his own self-esteem or to take the government on.” [08:27]

Polling Data: Public Perception

[09:15-10:20]

• Peter Kellner discusses new polling:
  • A majority (2-to-1) think the by-election is a mistake.
  • Reform voters back Farage’s move, Tory voters split, everyone else against.
  • Over 60% don’t trust Farage’s honesty regarding his finances.
  • Similar or worse trust numbers than Keir Starmer.

Notable Quote

• Kellner:
  "More than 60% don’t trust Nigel Farage to tell the truth. And that’s even worse than Keir Starmer..." [09:51]

Will It Backfire? Analyst Perspective

[10:20-12:17]

• Kellner predicts Farage’s strategy will backfire:
  "He wanted the other parties to come and stand...He’s not going to be able to say that. In the end, I think it’ll be sort of a non-event." [10:27]
• Historical parallel to David Davis’s 2008 by-election (other major candidates abstained, etc.).
• Without major parties, Farage’s legitimacy as a “winner” is questioned. Voter turnout will be scrutinized.
• Kellner predicts:
  • If turnout is around 40%, Farage can claim some legitimacy.
  • If turnout drops to 30% or below, "not many are that bothered about keeping him." [11:48]
• Discussion about the comedic candidate Count Binface and the dangers of trivializing democracy via low-barrier entries.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Farage’s resignation & process: [02:43–04:35]
• Political reaction and boycott: [04:35–05:39]
• Clacton voter interviews: [05:39–09:00]
• Polling analysis with Peter Kellner: [09:15–12:17]
• Democracy and protest candidacy discussion: [12:17–13:13]

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Notable Quotes

• Rachel Reeves (via Terry Stiasny, on Farage’s gambit):
  "If he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won’t stop him." [03:46]
• Clacton Resident on Farage:
  "He’s only here for publicity. That’s the only reason he’s here." [06:16]
• Clacton Resident (supporter):
  "He’s a winner, isn’t he? And we need him. …He was like the Geoffrey Boycott of the politicians." [06:39]
• Peter Kellner on the by-election stunt:
  "He’s not going to be able to say [he’s beaten all the main parties]. In the end it’ll be a sort of non-event." [10:29]

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Tone & Takeaways

The episode delivers a nuanced, at times sardonic look at Farage’s maneuver. Major party leaders (and many locals) see his stunt as self-serving, theatrical, and distracting. Public opinion is split among core Reform supporters but largely skeptical among wider voters. Analysts doubt Farage will emerge strengthened—unless turnout is surprisingly high or he can convince locals this is about more than his personal issues.

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For listeners seeking a window into the political gamesmanship and local reaction swirling around one of the year’s most unusual by-elections, this episode offers on-the-ground voices, polling data, and sharp analysis in The Times' signature incisive style.

Transcript

[Podcast Host (Michael's Sponsor Segment)]

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[Manveen (Times Radio Host)]

Hi, it's Manveen here. Nigel Farage has had a rollercoaster 24 hours, as you will have heard in the podcast this morning. After weeks of scrutiny over his finances, at 2pm yesterday he raged at the establishment and the media before announcing that he would resign as a reform UK mp, triggering a by election in Clacton. Now he says he's taking his case to the people. It's a high risk gambit straight out of the anti establishment playbook. But has it gone to plan? In this extra afternoon episode of the Story, we're handing over to my colleague John Pienaar at Times Radio to bring you the latest.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Nigel Farage formally quit as MP for Clacton earlier, which means a surprise by election. As he promised yesterday, the plan dramatically announced, was for it to be seen as a fight between Farage and the mainstream parties. Farage versus the establishment that he says are all out to get him now, more than that, he says Clacton on the south coast will be the ones to clear him over his 5 million pound gift from a crypto billionaire before he became an MP. Except the main parties are calling it a gimmick and are refusing to field candidates and take part. Terry Stiasney is our Times Radio political correspondent. Hi to you, Terry.

[Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent)]

Hello, John.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

So the motion to call the by election Terry, went through, though there were some, including the Lib Dems were there, who wanted to force Farage to face the Commons authorities over his finances first.

[Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent)]

Yes, that's right. Normally this is absolutely a formality. You can't actually resign as an mp. You have to be appointed to an Office of Profit under the Crown and in this case it is the Manor of Northstead. So Nigel Farage is now the steward and bailiff of the Manor of Northstead. He is no longer an mp and Rachel Reeves is the person he has to ask to appoint him to that. And she said she'd been asked by the Liberal Democrats, you know, would you perhaps delay this process? But she said, no, it's a farce, it's a deep distraction. But in her words, if he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won't stop him. So normally this is not a political thing at all. You just resign and then the writ is moved in Parliament to call the by election. So that hasn't happened yet. We can expect that to happen in the next couple of days or so. And again, normally this is absolutely a formality. It goes through unopposed. There was some talk about the idea that people might try to amend this motion or, or delay it in some way, but I think the feeling is that that wouldn't really achieve anything. Since Nigel Farage is no longer an mp, you can't continue to investigate him by the Standards Commissioner until he's back again.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Right. Certain amount of glee in the, in the. The words of Rachel Reeves, that Nigel Farage can look forward to a summer of having an argument with a bin seems to be. That sort of reflects the mood among the main parties who are boycotting the by election. The question now then, Terry, is whether this tactical strip will turn out to be a. A big backfire.

[Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent)]

Yes, I mean, it's interesting. I mean, as you say, all the major parties, apart from Camp Bin Face, who's the. The bin that Nigel Farage may end up arguing with, are sort of saying, this is a gimmick, this is a stunt. We are not going to have Any part of it looking ahead to a potential future. Second by election, if Nigel Farage is found to have done something wrong by the standards Commissioner. But Nigel Farage says, well, you know, they are stop me. Basically they're trying to stop an election. The other parties are running away from the battle and, and he feels that he's got nothing to apologize for. So I suppose the question is, you know, what kind of campaign is this really going to be? We know that he is in Clacton today. We don't know how many, you know, actual voters he is out talking to and how much attention this will get him and whether it is going to, to help his case or not.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Well, our Times Radio colleague Rosie Wright has been in Claxton today talking to people there.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Tell me how you felt yesterday when you learned that you're going to have a by election.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Obviously it was a bit of a shock first of all, but again, he's trying to prove a point and they seem to be picking on him at the moment. Nobody's picking on Starmer.

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

They're more worried about the 5 million pound that he received and things like that. That was a gift that was given to him in 2023 before he even become an MP. And if anyone gives you a gift, that's your business.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

How do you feel he's represented you as your constituency mp?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

He hasn't.

[Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent)]

He's only here for publicity.

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

That's the only reason he's here.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Did you vote for form last time?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

No.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

And who will you be voting for this time? Or will you vote at all?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

I don't think I'll bother. What's the point of actually wasting my time to vote when they don't bother?

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Are you a Clacton resident?

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

I am.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Who did you vote for in the last election?

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Who do you think?

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

Nigel.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Nigel Farage has said the people of Clacton will judge him on his actions. How do you judge him?

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

He's a winner, isn't he? And we need him. We need Nigel. He fought for 25 years on his own. He was like the Jeffrey boycott of the politicians.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

How are you feeling right now? You've got a by election leaving in Clacton.

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

How do I feel? I don't really feel anything for it. Really. It's unnecessary. It's all a political game. We're doing it for distraction, you know,

[Another Clacton Resident Interviewee]

we've got 5 million reasons, haven't we?

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Why do you think he called the by election as a distraction?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

Man's under pressure, doesn't do anything self centered.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Self Serving looks like he's going to stand pretty much unopposed. You could vote for Count Bin Face. How do you. How do you feel about sort of the state of democracy then?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

Well, I don't think that is. Is it because it's either him or Bin Face or what? You just don't vote and then he gets in again. So I don't know. It's, it's.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Well, nothing will change if he gets back in again.

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

Nothing will change but the saying about the case against him that that's going to go forward and then it. And then. Which means there's sort of something, isn't there about, about the. He's got to go. Go through the case before they can resign and have an. Have an election, isn't there?

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

How do you think Nigel Farage has delivered for the constituents like you of Clacton?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

Um, well, not much really because the

[Terry Stiasny (Times Radio Political Correspondent)]

taxes have gone up and I'm paying much more taxes than I used to do.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Will you be voting for him again?

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

Yes, I definitely will.

[Rosie Wright (Times Radio Reporter)]

Tell me why.

[Clacton Resident Interviewee]

I think he can see what's going on in this country and we've had Conservatives, we've had Labour, it hasn't worked. I hope Nigel Farage gets in and gives it to the establishment.

[Another Clacton Resident Interviewee]

I think it's a waste of money. It's already been. Was it just over two years? We've had a by election then he's got voted in. I mean another two years there's going to be another vote anyway so why bother doing it now? I don't know whether it's for his own self esteem or whether it is to take the government on but I think for what he's done and how much you see him here, I think it's a waste of time. That's about it really.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

So some support, some skepticism and a certain amount of confusion among people. In Clapton. They're talking to our colleague on Times Radio, Rosie Wright. Now. We can get the thoughts of Peter Kellner now who is the journalist and former president of the pollster YouGov. Hi to you Peter. Welcome.

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

Hi John, nice to talk to you again.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Always good to have you here, Peter. Look, there's a new poll from you Gum, isn't there, on Farage's finances, on his treatment by the media and his decision to call by election. What do we learn from that poll?

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

Well, we learned that most people who have a few around a third don't into global, don't have a view about 2 to 1 say it's not worth having a by election. It's a mistake. It shouldn't happen. What you got? Most Reform voters think it's a good idea. Tory voters are evenly divided, everybody else is against. It's not terribly surprising. But it hasn't caught far. There's one other thing, incidentally in the poll, the same batch of questions is that most people, I think more than 60%, don't think Farage is being quite honest about his finances. There's another poll that I've written up today by Norstadt, another pollster, which says that they don't trust 60%, don't trust Nigel Farage to tell the truth. And that's even worse than Keir Starmer. And so Farage, I think, has some fairly fundamental problems with the wider public.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Do you reckon, in your own judgment, as a veteran observer of these things, do you think this tactic is going to backfire?

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

I thought it's going to completely backfire. It's not going to achieve what he wants. He wanted the other parties to come and stand and for him to thrash them and for him to say, look, in an open contest, I can beat all the traditional parties. He's not going to be able to say that. I think it'll be in the end a sort of non event. You and I, John, are old enough to remember in early 20s ago, David Davis, the prominent story when he was in the shadow cabinets in the Labour government of Gordon Brown, he stood down to fight a by election in his own seat in Halton, Price and Hound on civil liberties. The other parties just abstained. But what did happen was they ended up with 26 candidates. So without the major parties, just, you know, everybody and their bin faced relative stood. I don't know whether the thing will happen here, but I wouldn't be surprised if we attract quite a lot of candidates. But none of the major parties, apart from Farage himself.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Yeah. Which does mean there is not in the way perhaps that Farage envisaged. He does make this by election something of a test, doesn't it? Because if Farage's plan was to be sort of carried back into Westminster shoulder high by Claxton voters, now the response is going to be measured on the turnout, for example, and on the support that goes to the other candidates, which clearly include Count Binface. So, you know, we're looking. He will be looking for some kind of resounding numerical endorsement from Clanton.

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

Yes, I'd be surprised if he gets that. My very, very rough guess is that if he gets a turnout of. I think he'd be hoping for at least 40%, which these days is pretty good for a by election. If you stand around until 30% or 25, that will not be good. What it'll show is not that the Claxton people want to get rid of him, but they just not many of them are that bothered about keeping him. So you're right, he will want a numerically high turnout. I'm not sure he's going to get it.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Yeah, I mean, Count Bin face, Peter, he's going to become a very famous man, isn't, isn't he? And we have known, both of us, times when, you know, a comedy candidate, a comedy party has contributed to the politics of the day. Do you remember David Owens stp, which was driven out of business in the end by support for the monster raving loony party?

[Peter Kellner (Journalist and Former YouGov President)]

Yes, I know. And these, these things have their own. I have to say I'm not greatly in favor of, of a system where people, for a sake of a 500 pound deposit can get themselves publicity that £20,000, you know, it would cost to get the same publicity. You know, I think it'd be much better not to have a deposit but to say, have 100 signatures so that poor parties or candidates with something to say who has some elements of local support can stand for free rather than people with no support but with a bit of money can, can sort of make a mockery of the whole process. So yeah, I know it's a bit of fun. I'm not sure it contributes to democracy.

[John Pienaar (Times Radio Presenter)]

Always a pleas, Peter.

[Manveen (Times Radio Host)]

That was Peter Kellner on John Pienaar's show, where you also heard Terry Stiazny and Times Radio's Rosie Wright. You can hear John Pienaar every day from 4 till 7pm on Times Radio. The story is back again tomorrow where we'll be looking at the curious case of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner's plans for a mega resort off Albania and the mass protests that have followed. See you then.

[Podcast Host (Michael's Sponsor Segment)]

This episode is sponsored by Michael's, your destination for all things birthday parties. We just had Lucky's first birthday and it was so great to be able to go into Michael's and get everything. Of course I knew they had craft supplies there, but I didn't realize how expansive their party supplies were. And Michael's really is where you can go to get everything for a party, whether you're planning a kids birthday or even an adult celebration. They've got over 4,500 party supplies, more than 60 different themes and prices starting at just 99 cents plus they've recently lowered prices on hundreds of items. We found adorable decorations, balloons, everything we needed to pull the party together without making a bunch of different shopping trips. Plus, I always have a good time going to Michael's. I love shopping there. I could just browse the aisles forever. But if you're short on time like I always seem to be, you can also get same day delivery or buy online and pick up at the store. They even offer free helium inflation on select balloon styles, which is such a lifesaver. And it was for our party, truly. So if you got a birthday coming up or just a celebration, remember Michaels everything. To celebrate anything, visit Michaels in store or shop online now.

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