Makerfield: the by-election which could decide the next prime minister

Summary

The Story – Makerfield: The By-Election Which Could Decide the Next Prime Minister

Podcast: The Story by The Times
Hosts: Luke Jones, Daryl Morris
Date: June 4, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the high-stakes by-election taking place in Makerfield, Lancashire—a local contest that could have seismic consequences for national British politics. Central to the story is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, and his bid to return to Parliament as a precursor to potentially challenging Keir Starmer for Labour leadership and the premiership. The episode explores the unique political dynamics, the backgrounds and strategies of the leading candidates, the key issues on the ground, and the atmosphere among voters acutely aware of both local concerns and national ramifications.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why is Makerfield’s By-Election So Pivotal?

• Andy Burnham's Ambitions: The resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons (after a scandal involving the commissioning of a report on journalists) cleared the way for Burnham’s run in Makerfield (03:57). Burnham must be an MP to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership.
• National Repercussions: If Burnham wins, it could trigger “Operation Replace Keir Starmer,” making Makerfield the epicenter of a potential prime ministerial change (01:14).
• Political Chess Game: Local feelings of being pawns in party machinations surface repeatedly (01:04).

2. Makerfield: The Place, The People, The Demographics

• Not a Town, But a Constituency: Makerfield is not an actual place but a grouping of towns near Wigan: Ashton, Platt Bridge, Orrell, Hindley, etc. (05:05).
• Classic, Thriving Northern Area: Contradicts the typical “left behind” red wall narrative. High home ownership, above-average employment, and bustling local high streets (06:23).

“It isn’t one of those places that you would... as being sort of a bit left behind. Makerfield's doing quite well.”
— Daryl Morris (06:23)

• Heavily White British: 97% identify as White British; high levels of British identity (06:23).

3. The Candidates and Their Brands

• Andy Burnham (Labour, but...):
  • Former MP, Cabinet member, twice-failed Labour leadership candidate, now Greater Manchester Mayor, seeking a Westminster comeback (07:13).
  • Personal Political Evolution: From a conventional Labour MP to a more regionally branded, socially media-savvy “King of the North” figure, post-COVID social justice campaigning (08:17–09:52).

“If you ask Andy Burnham, what is Burnhamism? He would point you to Manchesterism.”
— Daryl Morris (08:17)

• Local vs. National Persona: Burnham distances himself from Labour branding, focusing on his personal brand (14:16).

• Voter Perceptions: Split; some see him as opportunistic with shifting priorities (11:53), others value his local connections and direct outreach (13:47, 13:56).

  • Memorable moment, new mum Jamie:

    “I just kind of feel that, what are his priorities?”
    — Local Voter (12:15)

  • On supporting Burnham over Labour:

    “He just seemed like a really nice guy, to be honest.”
    — Local Voter (13:40)

• Robert Kenyon (Reform UK):

  • Local plumbing firm owner, well-known in the community, was the Reform candidate in the 2024 general election (17:25).
  • Controversial Social Media Past: Lewd comments, COVID skepticism, pro-Russian views, misogynistic posts have surfaced (23:46).
    • Danny Kruger (Reform MP):

      “...inappropriate, but ...the private comments of an ordinary man.”
      (25:04)

• Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain):

  • Standing for a new right-wing party, running to the right of Reform (18:03). Rupert Lowe, party leader, has energized a hardline anti-immigration base (19:29–21:25).
  • Right-Wing Vote Split: Presence of Restore Britain potentially breaks up the anti-Labour vote, which may benefit Burnham (22:09, 22:18).
    • Andy Olse, local voter:

      “I know a Restore vote's gonna be a Labour vote because it's taking votes off.”
      — Andy Olse (22:09)

• Other Parties & Candidates: Greens participating with reduced intensity after internal controversy. Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and a host of minor/independent/humorous candidates round out the ballot (14 in total) (27:37).

4. Key Community Issues

• Economic Frustration: Many residents cite cost of living, stagnant wages, and difficulty in affording day-to-day basics (13:17, 13:32).
• Online Lives Under the Microscope: The impact of decades of candidates’ social media activity is more prominent here than usual (23:31).
• Political Brand Disillusionment: Burnham’s strategy is to be “Burnham, not Labour” to court those disenchanted with the major parties (14:16).

5. Atmosphere on the Ground

• Real Sense of Stakes:

“The stakes are absolutely enormous and you feel that in the air when you’re there.”
— Daryl Morris (02:44)

• Personalized Campaigns: High candidate visibility, direct local connections; Burnham and Kenyon both highly rooted in the area (17:25).
• Voters as Deciders of History:

“Makerfield and the people of Makerfield are about to make a decision that could change the course of political history.”
— Daryl Morris (02:27)

• Tension over Westminster Politics:

“It feels like you go there and you are at the scene of the end of his [Starmer’s] premiership, largely because everybody’s making that argument.”
— Daryl Morris (27:08)

6. What Matters to Voters?

• Local issues remain important, but there’s sharp awareness of the national significance: giving “Keir Starmer’s Labour a kick in”, resetting the Westminster agenda, and possibly launching Burnham’s challenge for No. 10 (25:39, 26:24).
• Many feel alienated from the main parties and are using the by-election to express broader dissatisfaction (24:52, 27:08).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments by Timestamp

• “We’re pawns in a chess game... I don’t like being a pawn in a chess game for Labour or anybody else.”
  — Local resident (01:04)

• “If you ask Andy Burnham, what is Burnhamism? He would point you to Manchesterism... built around heavy investment in public services that sort of wrapped around encouraging enterprise and foreign investment.”
  — Daryl Morris (08:17)

• “I kind of feel like his priorities are not what I prioritise. The whole thing for me was the carbon system, the clean air system... he spent so much money on these signs, then all of a sudden these signs have been taken down and I just kind of feel that, what are his priorities?”
  — Local voter, Jamie (11:53–12:15)

• “He just seemed like a really nice guy, to be honest.”
  — Resident on Burnham personally contacting her daughter’s boyfriend after an incident (13:40)

• “You see lots of posters... none of them have Labour on them. The placards... just say, ‘Vote Andy for us’ and then they have the animated version of his face on them.”
  — Daryl Morris (14:16)

• “I know a Restore vote's gonna be a Labour vote because it's taking votes off... There’s gonna have to be changes. There’s nothing happening at the moment, is there?”
  — Andy Olse, on the right-wing vote split (22:09)

• “I think the one thing that is consistent though... is that you can smell the demise of Keir Starmer and his government in the air in Makerfield.”
  — Daryl Morris (27:08)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:52] – Episode premise and overview
• [03:57] – Why the by-election is happening (Josh Simons’ resignation, Burnham’s ambitions)
• [05:05] – Geography & social character of Makerfield
• [07:13] – Burnham’s political history & ambitions
• [08:17] – What is “Manchesterism”? Burnham’s adopted localist politics
• [09:52] – Burnham’s transformation into “King of the North”
• [10:55–13:56] – Voter interviews: economic worries, views on Burnham, Labour, Reform
• [14:16] – Burnham’s branding—separating from Labour
• [17:25] – Robert Kenyon and the importance of local roots for Reform UK
• [18:03–22:18] – Restore Britain’s role & the right-wing vote split
• [23:31] – Green Party participation and candidate controversy
• [23:46] – Robert Kenyon’s social media revelations and their effect
• [25:39] – Are voters focused on national or local questions?
• [27:08] – Sense of the “end of Starmer” in Makerfield
• [27:37] – Full candidate list
• [28:14] – Final thoughts: election night anticipation

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Conclusion

This episode paints Makerfield as a microcosm of contemporary British politics—fractured loyalties, powerful brands, and the omnipresence of online personas. Burnham seeks to ride his reputation and break with Labour's national brand, while right-leaning parties threaten to split the opposition. The voters, feeling the weight of their role, are deciding not just their MP, but possibly the next direction of their country.

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For listeners seeking a true sense of the stakes, atmosphere, and personalities driving this by-election, The Story’s episode offers an immersive and accessible guide.

Transcript

[Podcast Narrator / Advertiser]

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[Luke Jones]

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Luke Jones.

[Local Resident / Voter]

Yeah, it's a massive, massive thing that's going on at the moment.

[Daryl Morris]

Suppose you could elect the next prime minister.

[Local Resident / Voter]

Yeah, exactly.

[Luke Jones]

Can it be that around 75, 000 voters in Lancashire might force a change of Prime Minister?

[Philanthropist / Business Speaker]

I think we're pawns in a chess game. Get Binham in here and it whiz off down to London. And honestly, I don't like being a pawn in a chess game for labor or anybody else.

[Luke Jones]

You can't have escaped the news that Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, is fighting a by election on 18 June in Makerfield. The now former MP there graciously resigned to try and help Burnham return to Parliament. Becoming an MP would be step one in operation replace Keir Starmer. But much like the train journey from Manchester to London, Burnham's political journey south is also at risk of severe disruption, perhaps sudden cancellation in the local elections. Reform did very well in those parts, despite some controversial posts by their candidate being unearthed. Nigel Farage is throwing everything at the race. Even Elon Musk is getting involved, backing Restore Britain. So what will happen? The story today the Makerfield by election.

[Daryl Morris]

Makerfield and the people of Makerfield are about to make a decision that could change the course of political history.

[Luke Jones]

Daryl Morris is a presenter on Times Radio. I am northern. He by his own admission is very northern.

[Daryl Morris]

Sometimes we have to sort of build up by elections a little bit and sort of sell their importance. This by election needs no introduction. The stakes are absolutely enormous and you feel that in the air when you're there. You have the character of Andy Burnham staking a claim to a place in Westminster, making no secret of his intention to potentially one day be proud of prime Minister. You have reform versus Labour, the political kind of battle of our times. And I think there's lots of other stuff in play as well that are sort of interesting subplots to this by election, which is how online it is. Several of the characters in this by election have sort of come a cropper or have been dogged by their online lives. You have the dynamic of Restore Britain to Reform's Rights who have been very successful online. All of the stories of British politics are playing out here in Makerfield with this potentially massive consequence.

[Luke Jones]

And just remind us why we're having this. Because you mentioned how Andy Burnham's there staking a claim to be Prime Minister. The reason the last MP went, it's not because they fell under a bus, it's because they made a deal with him. Basically.

[Daryl Morris]

Yeah, we're having this by election because Josh Simons decided we were going to have this by election. Josh Simons is a Labour MP. He was elected in 2024. Before that he was the executive of a think tank, a sort of Labour adjacent think tank called Labor Together, famously founded by Morgan McSweeney, famously the vehicle that propelled Keir Starmer to the leadership before he became Prime Minister. And you might remember the story a little while back where it was revealed that Labour Together had commissioned a report to look into the backgrounds of some of our colleagues at the Sunday Times. And Josh Simons was serving as a junior minister in the government when that story broke and he resigned, saying that he was naive, that he should never have commissioned that report. All the same, he carried on as a Member of Parliament, but in recent months clearly has done a deal of sorts with Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham, of course, as the mayor of Greater Manchester, cannot be the Prime Minister. He has to be a Member of Parliament in order to challenge Keir Starmer in a leadership election.

[Luke Jones]

And we'll get into how that battle's playing out in a moment. But first describe Makerfield for. I've never been Daryl. I've not lived. What is it like?

[Daryl Morris]

Yes, yeah, exactly. The first thing to understand about Makefield is it isn't actually a place, it's just the name of a Cassidy. We just made this whole thing up. Sort of a figment of your imagination. It's the name of a constituency, Makefield, and it's a grouping of towns just south of Wigan. So you've got Ashton, Makefield Inc, Plattbridge, Orrell, Hindley. A sort of grouping of former mining towns on the border with Greater Manchester and Lancashire and Merseyside. And it is a sort of classic northern town. Lots of red brick, terraced houses. Each of those bits of town have their own sort of high street. Most of them, actually. I've got to say thriving, actually. They seemed really, really busy with lots of like little independent cafes and bars and restaurants and shops and things like that. Far fewer of those kind of vape shops and Turkish barbers that you see in towns a lot these days. It's a lovely little that is right at the sort of crosshairs, I think, of a country trying to sort of find its feet, its identity and its purpose, I think.

[Luke Jones]

And people at by elections like to obsess over the demographics of seats, try and think where it might nudge voters. I mean, we would describe Makerfield as what very simple.

[Daryl Morris]

It is 97% white British. 97% of people identify British as their main identity. Also, high levels of employment in comparison to the national average. You've got home ownership higher than the national average. Economic activity matches the national average. I've got to tell you, being there, it's a nice place. It isn't one of those places that you would a sort of traditional kind of red wall. Understanding those kind of tropes that we apply to a lot of these former mining towns in the northwest of England as being sort of a bit left behind. Makerfield's doing quite well.

[Luke Jones]

So let's get into the actual by election that's looming over us then. Obviously Andy Burnham is the front runner, I think that's fair to say, or one of the frontrunners for anyone who's been living under a rock who he.

[Daryl Morris]

So Andy Burnham is now the Mayor of Greater Manchester. He has had a lifetime in politics. He was the Member of Parliament for Leigh, which is next door to make Field. He served in government. He was in Tony Blair's government and in Gordon Brown's government. He was the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Culture Secretary. He was heavily involved in the Hillsborough inquiry During that period he was a Health Secretary as well. And during the Corbyn era of the Labour Party leadership, he stood for leader twice in 2010 and again in 2015.

[Andy Burnham]

I think I am a different voice in the campaign. I do bring a different perspective on things. I represent the seat where I grew up and I think I've got an ability to speak to people who have lost faith with Labour and after that

[Daryl Morris]

decided to retreat from Westminster and put himself forward to become the mayor, the newly founded position of the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

[Luke Jones]

And in that role, has his politics. Has what might be described as Burnhamism become clear?

[Daryl Morris]

If you ask Andy Burnham, what is Burnham ism, he would point you to Manchesterism. And in a way, I think that Manchesterism and this sort of ideology has been thrust upon him rather than him kind of carving it out for himself. When he became the mayor of Greater Manchester, the city region was thriving already. There were several key characters, Howard Bernstein and Richard Lees as well, who were sort of two leaders of Manchester Council who'd very successfully forged this sort of political ideology that was built around heavy investment in public services that sort of wrapped around encouraging enterprise and foreign investment. Right. You sort of piece those two things together. That's Manchesterism. And it has been hugely successful. Greater Manchester, generally speaking, has booked the trend in terms of kind of growth and prosperity and wages and job opportunities and all those sorts of kind of metrics that we sort of understand as being success. It's booked the trend in a country that's really struggled with those things. Right. So Andy Burnham has come along as the mayor of Greater Manchester and I think he sort of adopted that as his Persona, as his political ideology. He's also been on a journey in terms of kind of his personal brand as well. And you'll remember during the COVID pandemic, the way that he challenged the government

[Andy Burnham]

tier 3 lockdowns affect the lowest paid people in society. People who work in pubs, people who drive taxis, people who work on the doors in pubs. These are the people that Westminster politicians traditionally ignore. But we are not going to do that here.

[Daryl Morris]

You know, that's when he adopted that whole King of the north thing and he started to dress differently and talk differently and use social media.

[Luke Jones]

Lots of Fred Perry.

[Daryl Morris]

Lots of Fred Perry, yeah, absolutely. And use social media in a different kind of way as well.

[Andy Burnham]

Hi, it's Andy, Day one in the office. Well, actually not yet in the office because I've come to the city centre to speak to people who've been here overnight sleeping rough.

[Daryl Morris]

You know, quite a lot of people are sort of keen to point out that he lost two leadership elections and has been in government. But I think the andy Burnham of 2015, certainly 2010, is very different to the Andy Burnham that we find in Makerfield today.

[Andy Burnham]

Maybe people don't realize just how much of my old constituency is in the Makerfield constituency. I've represented a third of this constituency before and it's been brilliant being out in Westleigh tonight because I've met a lot of people who I helped in the past, like Laura, who I work with to support.

[Luke Jones]

And when you went around Makerfield, did you find that he was popular when you spoke to people?

[Daryl Morris]

There's two sides to the coin really, so far as Andy Burnham is concerned and how people feel About Andy Burnham. I met a woman called Jamie who is a new mum.

[Local Resident / Voter]

So I'm a teacher at the minute, on maternity leave.

[Daryl Morris]

And so the beastful little baby in

[Local Resident / Voter]

the background, this is Lyra. Hi, Lyra. So, yeah, I feel like a lot of my personal.

[Daryl Morris]

She had a daughter with her who was just a couple of months old and she was talking about feeling the sort of pinch in her life and how her priorities had changed.

[Local Resident / Voter]

I'm really struggling at the minute and I'm trying to do enough research because I would never not vote, but I really want it to be informed and I want to do the right thing as much as I can.

[Daryl Morris]

She said that she sort of feels like she has different priorities to Andy Burnham. And you hear that a lot, actually, when you sort of speak to people, there is definitely this sort of niggling feeling that Andy Burnham is doing this for himself, that he has a grander plan.

[Local Resident / Voter]

I've always voted Labour, always. But at the moment, I kind of feel like his priorities are not what I prioritise. The whole thing for me was the carbon system, the clean air system, cleaner system that you put in. Thank you. And, you know, he spent so much money on these signs, then all of a sudden these signs have been taken down and I just kind of feel that, what are his priorities?

[Daryl Morris]

You know, he's been quite explicit. He's sort of as explicit as you can be without literally saying, I want to be the Prime Minister about that, hasn't he? I'm sorry, I don't know if you can hear the. Can you hear the rain?

[Luke Jones]

Oh, yeah.

[Daryl Morris]

Is the full experience of being in Greater Manchester? Yeah. You hear this a lot from people who sort of make this argument that they are a bit concerned about what his priorities are. And, you know, we don't hear this very often, but she was quite kind about Keir Starmer, actually. And if Andy Burnham is sort of setting himself up as the protest to Keir Starmer, she'd picked her side on that. Would you like Andy Burton to replace Keir Starmer?

[Local Resident / Voter]

No.

[Daryl Morris]

Would you prefer to keep Keir Starmer?

[Local Resident / Voter]

Yeah, I think I would, yeah. I think he's not the best, but I also don't think he's the worst.

[Luke Jones]

What about the flip side that you heard?

[Daryl Morris]

You have a lot of conversations with people who really hate Labour and are very frustrated with Kissed Armour, but Andy Burnham stands out as being a bit different. I spoke to one woman who was the mother of a family of five, again struggling.

[Local Resident / Voter]

Everything's just gone up at the moment. We used to be able to afford to go out for meals and, you know, go for days out, but now we just seem to be doing less and less. Just I'm shopping in blinking charity shops now, just everything's just gone up and we're just really struggling at the moment.

[Daryl Morris]

Her daughter's boyfriend was campaigning for Andy Burnham and had this kind of experience where he'd been subject to racial abuse.

[Local Resident / Voter]

But Andy Burnham actually messaged him to say, you know, I'm really sorry, what went on. And so he just. He just seemed like a really nice guy, to be honest.

[Daryl Morris]

It was really telling how she talked about this as being Burnham versus Reform rather than Labour versus Reform.

[Local Resident / Voter]

I think it's just cause Labour's won so many times around here, around Makefield, that's probably why. But I think a few people I've spoke to, actually Auntie, who's 80, she always used to vote for Labour and now she's got time to reform.

[Daryl Morris]

Why is that? What's that?

[Local Resident / Voter]

I don't know. I didn't like asking her because she'd just swear at me. So I'm not sure.

[Daryl Morris]

An example, I think of the sort of Burnham brand. He's gone to great lengths to achieve this standing apart from the Labour brand. And I think that you see lots of posters of his knocking about the place and leaflets knocking about the place and none of them have Labour on them. The placards and the posters just say, vote Andy for us and then they have the animated version of his face on them. So he is quite clearly at pains to separate himself as a completely separate entity, as a separate brand. So on the one hand you've got Andy Burnham who is sort of shunning the Labour brand and playing this sort of strong local card, and he is taking on another person very rooted in this community, another local guy who is standing for reform.

[Luke Jones]

What kind of a battle will Burnhamism Labour have with Faragist reform? By all accounts, it looks very close. Thestoryatthetimes.com is our email. Maybe you have a vote in this by election or live in the wider area and have thoughts. Let us know. We'll have more from Daryl coming up.

[Daryl Morris]

Par le tu francais, hablas espanol, Par le italiano.

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[Philanthropist / Business Speaker]

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[Podcast Narrator / Advertiser]

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[Daryl Morris]

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[Luke Jones]

Foreign. You're taking us on a tour of Makerfield as we all excitedly await this by election with huge national ramifications. As described, you mentioned how the other front runners are rough reform and their local candidate, this guy called Robert Kenyon. What do we know about he? What are his local credentials?

[Daryl Morris]

Yeah, Robert Kenyon is a local guy who runs a plumbing firm in Makefield and he was Reform UK's candidate at the general election in 2024. And he's kind of been like right at the center of kind of reform politics in and around Wigan and Makerfield for a while. And again you bump into people and the amount of people you speak to people and the amount of people who know him or know his dad or have used his plumbing firm or went to school with him. It's just really, really striking how kind of rooted in their community. Both of these main characters in this by election are.

[Luke Jones]

And it's not just reform that you've got. There is as well Rupert Lowe's party, Restore Britain, kind of challenger to the right of reform who are also making inroads in that part of the world with their candidate for Makerfield. Rect has been a lot of chat about if you are someone who wants to vote right wing, who do you go for?

[Daryl Morris]

Yes, it's very much on people's minds here. We're used to talking about the Conservative Party and reform being the sort of main challenges for the vote on the right. But increasingly in British politics and very present in this by election is Restore Britain. You had an early poll that put labor and reform pretty much neck and neck about 43% for Labour, 40% for Reform and Restore Britain were on 7% in that poll where you're talking about a margin of error of 3%, 7% could be a real decider. So I was kind of keen to understand from people who were reform minded if Restore was sort of in their view really, and how they reflected on the possibility of a split to understand that, I spoke to a guy called Andy.

[Luke Jones]

Not Burnham?

[Daryl Morris]

Not Burnham, no, different Andy, who was tying up his bike outside a shopping centre in Ashton, in Makerfield. Sorry to bother you, my name is Daryl, I'm with Times Radio. More join in.

[Andy Olse]

Sorry, Andy. Andy Olse.

[Daryl Morris]

Andy. He said that he was reform minded but had been perhaps quite swayed by Restore Britain.

[Andy Olse]

Obviously I've been a bit brainwashed with Restore because, you know, Rupert Law came to the place and all that, you know, it was really busy when he was there. They're all following him as a messiah, I suppose.

[Daryl Morris]

I think he was quite taken by their much more sort of hardline approach on immigration.

[Andy Olse]

He's more about getting rid of the illegals into rather than people who are invalid passports and working with visas and

[Daryl Morris]

all sorts of things, or so immigration,

[Andy Olse]

that's a big factor, isn't it? That's what everyone's going on about because that. That's where we believe all the money's been wasted.

[Daryl Morris]

Andy is a member of a. A social club in Ashton that used to be a Labor club and in recent years it has shed its labor credentials and just become an independent club and Restore Britain have made that club their sort of de facto headquarters and they've been very present, restoring their everyday.

[Andy Olse]

That's like the base for them. We're getting sick to death a bit, basically, because if we're just being overrun with the people who want to know this area till the 18th of June and they'll not want to know it after that.

[Daryl Morris]

So they're clearly trying to sort of create as much of a presence as they possibly can and quite literally reclaiming spaces once occupied by the Labour Party. They have done quite a good job, it feels, of sort of carving out a position for themselves to the right of Nigel Farage, who has had to play a different sort of game. Nigel Farage has had to build a coalition of people, hasn't he? And he's been quite explicit in rejecting Tommy Robinson's advances and wary of losing those people who might be put off by the sort of extreme end of the sort of rise of British politics at the moment. However, in the last 24, 48 hours, or so there's been a lot of reaction to the murder of 18 year old Henry Novak. And Nigel Farage has taken the opportunity, I guess, to make a point about this.

[Andy Burnham]

All the values and standards of living in a free country where everybody is judged equally before the law have been

[Daryl Morris]

trashed and thrown away. And you know, the way that Nigel Farage has reacted to this could easily be perceived as concern from him about being outflanked. On his right. We've seen lots of protests and actually those protests have brought together kind of Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson. Tommy Robinson has been present in some of those protests, which is kind of interesting. That's the sort of overlap that Nigel Farage had been for a long time trying to resist. And that resistance, I suppose, sort of created a bit of a gap for Restore Britain and for Rupert Lowe. However, Andy, who I spoke to, was very alert to the prospect that that split in the vote might help Labour in this by election.

[Andy Olse]

I know a Restore vote's gonna be a Labour vote because it's taking votes off. So I don't know, I just. There's, there's gonna have to be changes. There's nothing happening at the moment, is there?

[Daryl Morris]

And actually you speak to people a lot in Egg Field who are reform minded and if you bring up Restore Britain, they like them, they're inclined to vote for them, but they are really thinking through the potential consequences of that.

[Luke Jones]

What is the debate happening to the left of Andy Burnham? Are the Greens making much of a play here?

[Daryl Morris]

Yeah, the Green Party have had a big debate themselves about whether they should even be in this by election. Caroline Lucas, the former leader of the Green Party, suggested not standing a candidate. Zach Polanski said they weren't going to do that. They were going to stand a candidate. That didn't go very well. Chris Kennedy, who was the original Green Party candidate, stepped aside for what he described as personal and family reasons. He has to apologize for sharing social media posts which described an attack on ambulances run by a Jewish charity in London. He described that as a false flag. The new Green Party candidate, Sarah Wakefield is standing, but I think it's probably fair to say they are not giving it their all. We saw them in the Gorton and Denton by election throw everything at it. And I think there is a sort of conscious stepping back a bit from this by election for the Green Party

[Luke Jones]

talking about problems on social media. The Reform candidate and what he in the past had put online has been a massive story in the build up to this by election. What actually happened. And has it had much of an impact on his campaigning?

[Daryl Morris]

Yeah. Robert Kenyon has been subject to a sort of near constant drip of revelations from old social media posts, including lewd comments that he sort of made and supported about Carol Vorderman. Carol Vorderman's asked for an apology. That's kind of rumbled and rumbled. Covid skepticism suggesting Russia had the right to annex Crimea. Posts that people have been describing as quite explicitly misogynistic. Also, one contribution to an online forum where he hinted at the possibility that maybe he'd supported Romain as well. I mean. Yeah, exactly. What a plot twist. Absolutely. So it's been very present, I have to tell you. It's not the sort of thing at the forefront of people's minds. There is this sort of feeling that maybe for some it's a little bit kind of baked in. People are voting for Reform UK out of a sense of kind of real frustration that the status quo isn't working. But with the margins as tight as they are, sort of 3%, potentially between reform and Andy Burnham at the moment, is there enough people, women in particular, who will feel put off enough by this to do something different with their vote? I mean, it is the sort of thing that in a by election with such fine margins could make a difference.

[Luke Jones]

Yes. Responding to all of that, Danny Kruger, who's a Reform MP for East Wiltshire, he described what Kenyon put on social media as inappropriate, but did say they were the private comments of an ordinary man. Thinking how this all shakes down, then, Daryl, it's not just a byelection, as you said. There's also this question of might the man who wins this, Andy Burnham, possibly go on to successfully challenge Keir Starmer? What do you think it will come down to when people are in the ballot box? Are people thinking about those big national questions or are they thinking about what the local MP from Acrefield might be able to do for them?

[Daryl Morris]

I think they are thinking extremely hard and deeply about all of it. I think they are very aware of national ramifications. I think there is a genuine appetite to give a Labour Party, the government, Keir Starmer, a kick in. And you know what's fascinating about this by election is that everybody on the ballot is offering that. Right. Everybody on the ballot is making that same argument about Westminster not working. Let's change things. You have people's online lives influencing how they think and divert. You've got the stories of people's online footprint running through this by election too. You've got Rupert Lowell from Restore Britain continuing to punch their weight. Andy Burnham, much more online as well, by the way, than most leading politicians. You see him seemingly answering criticism that you would hit him back. There's daily updates. I think there was a lot of the sort of stories of our times swirling around in this by election and people I think at the moment are trying to digest it, digest how they feel about these characters and digest how they feel about what comes next in British politics. I think they feel the weight of the decision that they are going to make and they're thinking about it very carefully. It feels like it's probably at the moment Andy Burnham's to lose because of his personal popularity. But it is incredibly close. And I think the one thing that is consistent though, and I can say for absolute certain is that you can smell the demise of Keir Starmer and his government in the air in Makerfield. It feels like you go there and you are at the scene of the end of his premiership, largely because everybody's making that argument. But the amount of people that you speak to who are just not sold on him and want to use this as an opportunity to tell him so is everywhere.

[Luke Jones]

In total there are 14 people standing in Makerfield. So in the aim of fairness, we should point out who they all. Jake Austin for the Liberal Democrats, Count Binface for the Count Binface party. Andy Burnham for the Labour Party, Dan Clark for the Libertarian Party, John Dyer, who's an independent. Ed Gemmell for the Climate Party, Paul Gould, who's an independent Alan Howling, Lord Hope, the official monster raving loony party. Robert Kenyon, Reform uk Robert Pownall, who is an independent. Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain. Sarah Wakefield, the Green Party, Peter Ward, rejoin eu and Michael Winstanley for the Conservative Party. We all know what they will be doing on by election night. What will you be doing, Darrell?

[Daryl Morris]

I'll be in the room. And they are sort of quite exciting moments, aren't they? Count declarations and you can very often feel like you have a front row seat to a moment of history. And so I'll be in the room again for a moment where we could very well see Westminster politics change with the reading of a result in a room in Wigan.

[Luke Jones]

Fabulous, Daryl, thank you so much. Thank you. Daryl Morris. You can hear him live on Times Radio every weekend evening from 10pm Also, we mentioned the murder of Henry Novak in this episode. We will have a full episode about that tomorrow. Thestoryatthetimes.com is our email. Maybe you're voting in Makerfield in a couple of weeks. Time, or you're from that part of the world and have thoughts, let us know what you think. The storyatthetimes.com that is it from us today. Today's producer was Olivia Case. The executive producer was Kate Lamble. And sound design and theme composition was by Malicetto. I'm Luke Jones.

[Daryl Morris]

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