Nigel Farage resigns. What now?

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Nigel Farage resigns. What now?"

Podcast: The Story
Host: The Times (Manveen Rana)
Date: July 8, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deeply into the political and ethical storm surrounding Nigel Farage’s surprise resignation as MP for Clacton following a string of controversies centered on his finances and alleged rule breaking. Journalists Manveen Rana, Gabriel Pogrand from the Sunday Times Insight team, and Times columnist Fraser Nelson unpack what led to Farage’s resignation, the investigations into his funding, and what might happen next for both Farage and Reform UK.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Resignation: Context and Farage’s Framing

• Announcement: With little warning, Farage called a press conference to resign as MP for Clacton, citing attempts by the "establishment" to undermine him through "foul means" after a wave of negative media coverage and standards inquiries ([01:08]).
• Framing: Farage positions his resignation as an act of democratic principle, promising a Clacton by-election and insisting that "the people" should judge him, not the Westminster establishment ([03:07]).
• Memorable quote:
  "Now I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by-election." – Nigel Farage ([03:07])

2. The Investigations: Sunday Times Reporting and Parliamentary Standards

• Media Investigation: The Sunday Times, led by Gabriel Pogrand, revealed that Farage failed to declare significant gifts from George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster and crypto entrepreneur ([05:24]).
• Key facts reported:
  • Farage received undeclared benefits from Cottrell, including security payments, use of properties, and staff support ([05:24]).
  • Cottrell himself is linked to a crypto gambling platform possibly involved in criminal activity ([05:24]).
• Farage’s response: Farage accuses the media and political rivals of pursuing a vendetta against his wealth and outside interests, rejecting that he had done anything wrong ([07:30]).
  • "Making money is not a crime." – Nigel Farage ([07:30])
• Parliamentary response: Parliamentary investigations into Farage’s finances were underway, including the £5 million gift from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne ([08:13], [23:01]).
• Journalism ethos:
  "You just want the words to be accurate and for them to hopefully collectively serve the public interest." – Gabriel Pogrand ([04:30])
  "The objective of journalism... is to examine the extent to which a powerful person’s interests may interact with their public role." ([14:15])

3. The Debate over Financial Transparency and Public Interest

• Public scrutiny: The journalists discuss why financial transparency from politicians like Farage, who aims for the highest office, is vital for democratic integrity ([14:15]).
• Farage’s position: He maintains that gifts like Harborne’s were entirely personal, not political, and thus not required to be declared ([21:49], [23:01]).
• Institutional rule:
  "Its language is very clear. It’s about upholding democracy by having a high level of transparency." – Gabriel Pogrand ([14:15])
• Continued skepticism:
  “If we don’t know that the interests exist, then it’s... impossible to make that determination.” – Gabriel Pogrand ([15:41])

4. Impact and Analysis: What Next for Farage and Reform UK?

• Investigations paused, but not over: Parliamentary standards inquiries are on hold during the by-election but will resume if Farage is re-elected ([23:53]).
• Strategic by-election: Farage is attempting to leverage the by-election as a show of public support to claim exoneration, rather than have it forced on him by a potential standards recall ([25:23]).
  • "He will claim that he has been exonerated by his constituents." – Fraser Nelson ([25:23])
• Possible party stances: Other parties might not stand candidates in Clacton, making a Farage re-election almost certain but potentially undermining its legitimacy ([25:56]).
• Parliamentary standards: The officials will maintain their process regardless of by-election outcomes ([26:49]).

5. The Role of Money and Reform’s Financial Backers

• Unprecedented cash: Farage’s personal and political finances are often opaque and now involve sums (notably Harborne’s £5m) unprecedented in UK politics ([19:44]).
• Crypto’s growing role: There’s concern about the political influence of crypto wealth, paralleling recent U.S. campaign trends ([21:49]).
  • "Crypto money is off the scale. I saw it transform American politics and I could see it attempting to transform British politics, hiding in plain sight." – Fraser Nelson ([22:35])
• Associations with convicted individuals: Reform UK and Farage are attracting criminally convicted donors and supporters, possibly reshaping power dynamics ([27:40]).
  • "Sometimes, to me, this doesn’t look like a populist revolt, it looks like a new establishment forming, getting ready to take power." – Fraser Nelson ([28:10])

6. Voter Response and Political Consequences

• Core supporters: Farage’s base is likely to stay loyal, viewing criticisms as partisan attacks ([28:40]).
  • "The core supporters double down." – Fraser Nelson ([28:40])
• Broader impact: Scandals and financial opacity risk triggering tactical anti-Reform voting among Labour and Conservative supporters, potentially isolating Farage and Reform further ([29:04]).
• Party toxicity: Reform’s growing “toxification” could make it harder for the party to build alliances, despite Farage’s continued appeal to his base ([30:40]).
  • "This toxification can make your core supporters doubly, trebly determined to vote for you. But it can also mean an anti-Reform coalition is formed in Britain and that makes a mockery of opinion polls." – Fraser Nelson ([30:40])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Farage addressing allegations:
  "I have done nothing wrong." – Nigel Farage ([01:30])
• Farage on family intrusion:
  "I will not tolerate intimidation of my family... Well, I’ve never been angrier in my life." – Nigel Farage ([06:50])
• Fraser Nelson on unprecedented financing:
  "We are seeing this level of money changing hands that we’ve never seen before in our democracy. A £5 million gift... People are entitled to ask why." ([20:58])
• Gabriel Pogrand on public interest:
  "If you are being secretly funded by people... the job of journalism from time to time is to remedy that." ([15:28])
• Nelson’s summation on future prospects:
  "This behavior from Nigel Farage will save him in the by-election, but I think it will make it even less likely that he forms the next government." ([31:24])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:08] – Farage announces resignation and frames by-election as "people vs establishment"
• [03:07] – Farage’s speech excerpt: decision to "let the people judge"
• [05:24] – Gabriel Pogrand summarizes the Sunday Times investigation
• [06:50] – Farage’s statement on family harassment and his anger
• [07:30] – Farage’s response to wealth criticism
• [14:15] – Gabriel Pogrand discusses the public interest in political financial transparency
• [19:44] – Fraser Nelson examines Farage’s finances and the entry of crypto money
• [25:23] – Fraser Nelson explains Farage’s by-election strategy
• [28:40] – Fraser Nelson: supporters will "double down," others may unite against Reform
• [30:40] – Impact of "toxification" on voting patterns

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Conclusion

This episode offers a sharp, in-depth look at one of the most turbulent moments in recent British politics. Through the dual lenses of investigative and political journalism, listeners are brought up to speed on the financial controversies staining Farage and Reform UK, the ongoing and paused Parliamentary investigations, and the complicated reactions of both his supporters and the wider electorate. The underlying question: who really funds populist politics in Britain—and what are the broader consequences for democracy?

For further details, the hosts recommend the Sunday Times investigation podcast "Posh George."

Transcript

[Nigel Farage]

Then I thought, what if I've scaled businesses? What if I scaled my philanthropy? What if I did as much in one year as I've done in my whole life?

[Fraser Nelson]

See how your wealth could have even

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[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Manveen Rana. With just over an hour's warning, Westminster was put on notice. Nigel Farage would be making a speech about his political future.

[Nigel Farage]

I have to say, the last two years, I've really enjoyed the job of being an mp. The people, the constituency. It's an office that I genuinely, genuinely adore.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

The leader of reform, who had been accused of avoiding interviews for weeks, was now addressing the country's media. Without having to answer any awkward questions about his finances.

[Nigel Farage]

He it seems to me that the establishment have now decided that they can't beat us fairly, so they've chosen to use foul means. Let me be absolutely clear, after the furore and the media pile on. Well, not just the media, the other political parties too. Let me be absolutely clear. I have done nothing wrong.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Farage, a seasoned political bruiser, has appeared rattled since the revelations of a 5 million pound gift from a crypto billionaire led to a Parliamentary Standards investigation. And then came the revelations over the weekend.

[Nigel Farage]

Now, Standards investigating me over the gift has now reared its head again as a result of a loss of copy. In this week's Sunday Times,

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

We'll hear from Gabriel Pogrand, the editor of Insight, the team behind the Sunday Times investigation. Why are we so worried about a crypto tycoon and a convicted fraudster, both of whom live abroad, funding a British politician?

[Nigel Farage]

These are men who've gone off as entrepreneurs around the world and succeeded, the sort of people we used to admire over centuries. Now government ministers refer to them in Parliament as malign actors. Frankly, it is like living in a communist country.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

With his broadsides against the media and the establishment. Nigel Farage insisted on it was the people who should decide his Fate.

[Nigel Farage]

I will resign as a Member of Parliament for Clacton on Sea, thereby forcing a by election which should happen, I hope, in short order. Now I've decided that the people of Clapton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by election,

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

as we hurtled towards another by election, this time in Clacton. Will Farage prove that he's still backed by the people? And what happens to the parliamentary standards investigations into him now that he's resigned? The story today Farage resigns. What next?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

I'm Gabriel Pogrand, editor of Insight, the Sunday Times investigations team.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Very much man of the moment. Your investigation has had a huge impact. I mean, we're speaking on Tuesday afternoon. Earlier today, there was just a moment where there was a collective gasp across the newsroom when the news dropped that Nigel Farage was going to be making an announcement about his future. Where were you when that happened and what did you think?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

Well, I was with my colleagues Emanuel Modolo and Venetia Mingus, who, alongside the great George Greenwood at the Times, I did this report with. And we are a total team throughout. And it's one of those stories where we spent 5,000 words attempting to condense the sum total of some serious investigation that took us from Mayfair to Montenegro. And we never had any notion of what the impact might be. And I think in some ways, as a journalist, you don't really want to look for impact because it's not about getting any result. You just want the words to be accurate and for them to hopefully collectively serve the public interest. So I suppose it was just a case of kind of incredulity at the instantaneousness and extent of the impact.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

And Gabriel, for anyone who has missed the podcast and hasn't caught up with the story, just remind us of the headlines.

[Gabriel Pogrand]

So we reported on Sunday that Nigel Farage had failed to declare benefits received from George Cottrell, a convicted criminal and aristocrat who spent months in prison in the United States for his role in a Dark Web money laundering conspiracy. We said that Farage appeared to have broken parliamentary rules which require all benefits that are not purely personal to be divulged within 12 months of an MP's election. And we also followed the trail of George Cottrell from Mayfair to Montenegro, where he now has a penthouse, and examined his involvement in a crypto gambling platform, implicated in potential criminal wrongdoing.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

I mean, it was extraordinary. It's within about 48 hours after the story breaks and you've got headlines in the Sunday Times. There's a podcast, in fact, there's an entire series that if you haven't heard it, please do. It's called Posh George. This is an extraordinary outcome. You know, clearly Nigel Farage does seem to be rattled. When he gave his speech, we were all watching very closely. Just remind us of what he said. What is his version of where things stand?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

Well, he is extremely angry. He is angry at the media, he's angry at labor, he's angry at the Conservatives. He was incandescent about what he claimed was media intrusion into the life of his family.

[Nigel Farage]

I will not tolerate intimidation of my family. I will not tolerate the location of where they live being revealed. I will not tolerate any of my family being endangered because of what I choose to do in public life. So, yes, you can ask, am I angry? Well, I've never been angrier in my life.

[Gabriel Pogrand]

But more pertinently, he was full of righteous indignation about what he claimed was the premise underpinning some of the reporting that we, among others have done, which is this idea that it isn't acceptable in British public life to have made any money or to make any money.

[Nigel Farage]

Now, it would seem from the last couple of years, from the way I've been treated, that the press would rather our members of Parliament had no assets and no wealth at all. They seem to fundamentally object to any MP that has outside income. Indeed, they view those that have continuing business interests with severe, severe skepticism. Making money is not a crime.

[Gabriel Pogrand]

I suppose I can only say that the reality is we just put some information into the public domain to which he didn't have straightforward or necessarily adequate answers from a political perspective. And I think that was probably the same in relation to the 5 million reform.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

UK's leader, Nigel Farage said today he didn't have to declare that 5 million quid given to him by Thailand based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne because it was a private gift to fund his personal

[Gabriel Pogrand]

security which preceded our story, but which alongside it, you know, you'd have to say was the reason for today's announcement. And it's kind of fascinating situation because he actually, he acknowledged that our reporting on George Cottrell had led to a new investigation by the Standards Commissioner, or he said as much. I've not independently verified that myself since, but I suppose at the heart of it he didn't actually mention the allegations themselves. He didn't say here's why it's wrong or here's a list by itemized list of my objections to the facts. He's deciding to characterize the disclosure of these facts as part of some anti wealth, anti reform establishment agenda. So that's his position. And his hope is that he can use that to pulverize Labour in the Tories and reassert his political authority. How that works and how that interacts with both political reality, but also the reality of the rules of the palace of Westminster is now of the essence. Politically, those are going to be the determinative questions over the next few months.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Yeah, I mean, he was adamant that he had done nothing wrong. Obviously, there is a parliamentary standards inquiry that has been underway which would actually establish if that was true or not. That's now on hold. As you say, what we hadn't known before was that there was now going to be a second inquiry based on your story, based on that investigation. And for him, we've seen him looking quite rattled and uncomfortable in interviews, avoiding interviews over the last few weeks with one parliamentary inquiry, now with this one, it seems to have sort of been the tipping point for him. You know, this is all getting very uncomfortable. Do you think it's just that as somebody who's been in politics for such a long time, but not in Parliament, he's not really used to scrutiny or accountability.

[Gabriel Pogrand]

Well, it is true that clearly our report was what changed the conversation for him because he was on his way back from America, where he'd seen J.D. vance last week and was approached by a Sky News reporter who asked him whether he should have declared the funds from George Cottrell. And he was seething.

[Fraser Nelson]

Is it a mistake not to declare

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

the gifts from George Cottrell, sir?

[Nigel Farage]

You tell your bosses you harass my family anymore and I'll take you with serious consequences.

[Gabriel Pogrand]

That's what your organization has done this morning.

[Nigel Farage]

Go away.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Was it a mistake not to declare the gift, sir?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

Do not hear me. And by the way, I'm not saying he was angry as a dig at him. He himself repeatedly said today that he is angry. Angrier than he's ever been, he said, if I am recalling correctly. Why has he responded to this in this way? I suppose an important principle of journalism is not to attempt to insert oneself into another person's innermost thoughts. If I can just say one factual dimension of this, it's that the story itself has never been disputed. Reform UK's own Treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrich, on Sunday toured the broadcast rounds in which, no doubt very unhappily, he nevertheless did stand up. The core claims that we reported, among them, that Cottrell paid for Farage's staff Security drivers, that he had provided a house, which Farage had stayed in repeatedly, and that George Cottrell himself is involved with a crypto gambling platform, implicated in criminal wrongdoing. So those are the bits that are quite difficult to address directly. And of course, he has this relationship of profound depth, this deep, personal, emotional political bond with George Cottrell, for which reason the idea that he would ever come out and provide a full technicola commentary on the inside of their relationship seems unlikely. It might in this instance have been easier to just put a big circle around all of it, group together all these acts of intrusion or media hostility as he perceives it, and just say, I'm drawing a line under it, and I'll let the public have their say.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

It is an extraordinary story and it does seem to have had an instant impact across Westminster. As you say, reform, through some of the interviews they've done since, do seem to have confirmed many of the basic facts of the story. How did Nigel Farage respond?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

So Farage was conspicuous by his absence on Saturday and Sunday and on Monday. So the story broke on Saturday, I believe he gave a comment to the Daily Express claiming that he was considering legal action against the Sunday Times, but other than that, he sort of withheld comment until today. And what he said to date was that we were part of this wider plot, this establishment plot, and that we had an animus against him. That I had an animus against him, and that there were inaccuracies in the reporting. So he didn't specify what any of those were, but that was his position.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

And what about George Cottrell, for his part? What was his response?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

Well, PostGeorge has a Twitter account which hasn't posted of late. The primary way to communicate with him at this moment is through his lawyers at Carter Ruck, and they gave us a fair amount of information over the course of the weekend setting out his position on the allegations. I suppose the notion of rule breaking, parliamentary rule breaking, wasn't one for him. He did acknowledge paying for Farage's security as recently as Q1, 2024. The lawyers provided a statement saying that he had made transfers from a bank account held or from bank accounts held in his name to members of Farage's staff. And he said that he was not aware of any of the potentially criminal conduct that we examined connected to the gambling firm he's involved in.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Now, in his big statement, Nigel Farage, you know, while saying this is all part of a conspiracy by the establishment, does seem to say that, you know, his Finances and, you know, the finance of people are doing well are really none of our business. Why do you think there is a public interest in looking at where he's been getting his money from?

[Gabriel Pogrand]

I think that the public interest in this, from my perspective, is visible from outer space. The objective of journalism, especially investigative journalism, is to examine the extent to which a powerful person's interests may interact with their public role. And that, by the way, is also the role of the MP's code of conduct. Its language is very clear. It's about upholding democracy by having a high level of transparency. That means that any reasonable person could be satisfied Both what an MP's interests are, but also whether those interests might have some effect on their words or actions as member. And the whole point of our system is that we know most politicians, most people don't like being accused of doing anything wrong, don't think of themselves as bad people, and so when from time to time, they do receive something, if they do, they're not going to say, I am now doing X, Y, Z because of the gift. They might think it's wholly coincidental. But the whole point of the rules is, well, let's have a world in which we all know what those benefits are, and then we can make our own determination as to whether you have acted because of this or that or the other. And then you can say, no, I haven't, and I can say, I think you might have. And it falls within the domain of political contestation and debate, which is the essence of politics. But the issue here has always been the idea that there are interests which have been concealed. Now, if Raj says interests weren't concealed, they were withheld because they never needed to be divulged in the first instance. And I suppose the question there is, well, does that really work? Does it work with the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner? But also, do people accept it as being reasonable? The point is that if we don't know that the interests exist, then it's difficult, it's impossible, to make that determination. And so therein lies what I think the public interest of this is. This is a man who wants to be Prime Minister, who therefore can reasonably expect to face general scrutiny, just as Keir Starmer did, just as Andy Burnham no doubt will now. And so I suppose, yeah, in that way it's reasonably straightforward. If you are being secretly funded by people, or people have previously given you monies that weren't visible to the public, the job of journalism from time to time is to remedy that.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

In response to the George Cottrell investigation. Nigel Farage said that he was the victim of an establishment hit job and that he's done nothing wrong, and he specifically denied that any benefits he received from George Cottrell required registration. He added, I followed the rules and I am now considering legal action against the Sunday Times. It's now clear the establishment nothing to hurt Reform. We want to smash their cosy consensus. Robert Jenrick, Reform UK's treasury spokesman, said Mr. Cottrell is an old friend of Nigel Farage's and has no formal role within Reform. George Cottrell, for his part, denies he expected any benefit from his relationship with Farage. Coming up having triggered a by election in Clacton. Will Nigel Farage definitely win, or is this a stunt that could backfire? And what does it all mean for the future of Reform uk? In a moment, we'll hear from Fraser Nelson.

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[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

It was the George Cottrell allegations that proved to be the tipping point for Nigel Farage. But questions around his finances had been swirling for months.

[Fraser Nelson]

When I did my documentary Inijah Farage, I tried to link the source of his finances. In the end, we didn't include it in the documentary because it was just too complicated.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Fraser Nelson is a columnist for the Times who's been delving into Farage's finances. He also presented a documentary on reform for Channel 4.

[Fraser Nelson]

Last year there were, broadly speaking, three parts to Farage Inc, if you want to call it that, that is media, property and crypto. And it was quite clear that he was building a very successful business. Now, it was never clear to me where he got the money. And earlier on this year, it turns out to be quite a small story in the Times on page three or something. Nigel Farage emerges as a strategic investor in Stack btc, a small crypto company chaired by Kwasi Kwartang. Now, to me, what jumped out was the fact that he had £225,000 to speculate on, on a very kind of risky crypto investment. Now, where on earth, I wondered, where do you got that amount of money from? Given that in 2017 he gave an interview saying that Brexit has left him broke. He's saying he separated and skint. I just couldn't work it out. We know he'd been given a million pounds for appearing on I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here. But a million pounds doesn't give you enough money to spend 200 grand on Kwazi Kwarteng's crypto company. So all of these things never made sense until the Guardian newspaper revealed that Christopher Harborne had given this £5 million, tax free, importantly, gift to Nigel Farage. That would have been transformative, but also we are seeing this level of money changing hands that we've never seen before in our democracy. A 5 million pound gift. Nothing remotely like this has ever been happened. And people are entitled to ask why. And of course this matters democratically because you have to ask, what does he want in return? Was it really a gift?

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

And we should say that Christopher Harborne, when he's been asked about that 5 million pound gift, has insisted that he wasn't expecting anything in return apart from ensuring Farage's safety. And he said he'd given the money to Faraj because of his great admiration for the decades of work that he'd done to achieve Brexit.

[Fraser Nelson]

If you look at Farage's policies, you'll find, lo and behold, there's a Crypto and Finance act which he would do, he says on day one of becoming Prime Minister, he would order the treasury to stop developing a rival to Bitcoin. The point here is we are living in unprecedented times. If a next Prime Minister arrives and all of a sudden starts to pass laws benefiting the crypto dealers and then we have to ask why that's happening. Now, when I wrote my very long two and a half thousand word essay on this for the Times, I spent weeks on that and it got almost no reaction. People were joking about how it was too dense. Perhaps I didn't write it as well as I could have done, I don't know. But I believed it was important because I had seen in the American election a wall of crypto money flood into those elections. Crypto money's coming behind candidate after candidate. All of a sudden they're flush with cash. And in the same way that reform is flush with cash, it's raising far more than any other political party because it's getting it from crypto. The crypto money is off the scale. I saw it transform American politics and I could see it attempting to transform British politics, hiding in plain sight because Farage is there presenting himself as a crypto investor.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Crypto in politics does feel very new, we should say, though Nigel Farage has denied any wrongdoing in relation to not declaring that 5 million pound gift from Christopher Harborne. He said, and I quote, the rules are very clear. There is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non political personal gift. Now, that is actually the subject of an inquiry by the parliamentary standards investigation which has been underway for a while now. What happens to that inquiry and any new inquiry which was about to be launched about George Cottrell, what happens to those investigations by Parliament?

[Fraser Nelson]

So we'd heard this morning that the interview scheduled for today was postponed until September.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

So today he would have been interviewed by the parliamentary standards, that's our understanding investigation.

[Fraser Nelson]

And later today they said, no, let's do it after the summer. And then we hear about his press conference. Now these investigations are paused for the by election, but of course they'll be resuming if he is re elected. And then of course, if they find against him, there could be a re competition and yet another by election. So those poor souls who might have to be forced into three elections for Nigel Farage in the space of three years. So we've got another inequality here. Nigel Farage doesn't need to hold a by election. This won't achieve anything, I don't think. All he's doing is using his voters as pawns, as extras in a great kind of political drama, mobilizing them out of the houses to go into the pulling booths because he's angry at journalists asking him questions. Now, I have always been very critical of politicians who do this for reasons of their own ego, whether it's Conservatives like Nadine Doris who held the by election because who didn't get into the House of Lords or other ones who wanted to leave Parliament. A year early to take a job and force people into by elections. As if this power of forcing everybody out of their houses and into the voting booths is something you do as a rhetorical flourish.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Nigel Farage is obviously framing this as him going to the people. He doesn't trust the establishment. He thinks everyone else is trying to bring him down, but the people will back him. He's trying to show that he's leaning into democracy, if anything. What do you think the game plan is here? Because, you know, one of the worries would have been if the investigation found against him, there would be a recall and he would face a by election. That's not something people normally welcome. Do you think he's very confident he'll win?

[Fraser Nelson]

Yes, and he should be, because he will win. Clacton is the most reformy part of the uk. Now, what he's seeking to do here is quite simple. He will claim that he has been exonerated by his constituents. My constituents. They voted for me again. I had a by election. Therefore all of these questions you're asking me about impropriety were answered in the by election. So here he's trying to use the by election almost as a form of clemency. Of course it's not that and it's not going to stop people having reservations about how reform is financed and how Farage behaves.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

We don't know how that contest will work out, but there are rumours already doing the rounds in Westminster this afternoon that all, all the other parties might just refuse to field a candidate, which would make the whole exercise utterly pointless. You know, Ed Davy, the leader of the Lib Dems, has said they don't want to give oxygen to Farage's vanity project. So there is a scenario where he stands alone and the whole thing looks a bit ridiculous, but he does get back to Parliament and these standards inquiries are relaunched. Is there a world in which he could say, but hang on, now you're asking questions about the funding I got in the year before I got into Parliament the last time round. Presumably he'll want to do anything he can to deflect from this. How seriously will those investigations still be taken if he comes back into Parliament in the autumn?

[Fraser Nelson]

The parliamentary standards officials are quasi judicial. They will not really be moved by this. Either way, they've got a simple question to answer. Given that the rules tell MPs to disclose anything that others may see to be influential should Najafaraj have disclosed, the then decision they've got to make is whether is this going to be A serious breach or a moderate breach, if it's a serious one, that opens the door to a by election. But I don't think this process will be preempted or the wind taken out of its sails by this by election. To me, I think all of this risks getting away from the real point, which is who is funding our politics and why and whether he should have declared it are not the fact that the money is there, the financial relationships are there. The fact that Farage is linked to people who've had criminal convictions. I mean, George Cottrell served eight months in the federal penitentiary and was there at his right hand. We've got the leader of Reform in Wales, who's currently in prison for having been caught to take in Russian bribes. We've got Ben Delew, who was also convicted of some money laundering regulation, given a pardon by Trump, but he's now back living in Britain and only recently was signed up as a donor to Reform. Almost seems as if Reform UK is attracting people who have been pushed to the fringes by dint of criminal conviction or something else. And they're all getting in line behind Reform. And sometimes, to me, this doesn't look like a populist revolt, it looks like a new establishment forming, getting ready to take power via.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

And talking of that, I mean, how will this play out with Reform's core voters? You know, when they see the support of convicted criminals, when they see all the money that is coming in for a politician who's supposed to be a man of the people, does that change their image of him?

[Fraser Nelson]

No, it doesn't. There are now studies showing this kind of phenomenon that the core supporters double down. Donald Trump used to joke that he could step outside and shoot somebody dead and still wouldn't lose any opinion poll support. That's what political tribalism does. It means people aren't inclined to see all criticism as partisan attacks. But that is the core supporters. Now, there is a quote attributed to Margaret Thatcher. It doesn't matter how much people who don't vote for you don't like you. That isn't entirely true, because if people who don't vote for Reform come to see Reform as a racist party, as polls show about 40% do, if they come to see it as a real and present threat to our democracy, then this will trigger anti reform tactical voting. We've seen this in by election, after by election, and that means Labour voting, Tory, Tory voting, Labour simply to stop Reform. So it does matter. I think, even if Reform's base is absolutely galvanized by this. You can see it on social media. We don't care. We're voting for them through thick or thin. At the next election. If reform is still seen to be in contention for power, then we can see a situation where people will vote for whoever is most likely to stop reform. Now that will really put the kibosh under reform. It also means, by the way, that the Conservatives are under pressure to rule out any sort of coalition with them. Camille Behelich did that when she was at the Times CEO summit a few weeks ago. She was saying she's going to be standing on a Labour out stock cop reform ticket. Now she does that because she wants maximum votes. That's what politicians do. But she's figuring that reform is becoming so toxic that she will get left wing votes because left wingers will vote Conservative if they think the Conservatives are most likely to stop reform. So this toxification, if you like, can make your core supporters doubly troubly determined to vote for you. But it can also mean an anti reform coalition is formed in Britain and that makes a mockery of opinion polls. Opinion polls ask who you personally support, but that is becoming a very different question to who you're going to vote for. We saw this in Wales Reform were ahead in the polls and then you ended up with Labour and Tory voting for Plaid Cymru because Plaid would plausibly stop reform. So this behavior from Nigel Farage will save him in collection, but I think it will make it even less likely that he forms the next government. He still is the bookmaker's favorite to succeed Andy Burnham, but I would now bet against that in the way that I wouldn't have done a year ago.

[Nigel Farage]

Foreign.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

That was the Times columnist Fraser Nelson. And before that you heard from the Sunday Times Insight editor Gabriel Pogrand. There's more coverage on the times.com and you can listen to the Sunday Times investigation podcast series Posh George, the Criminal Behind Farage, wherever you get your podcasts. And episode three is dropping tomorrow. The producers today were Sophie McNulty and Harry Stott. The executive producer was Edward Drummond. Sound design and theme composition were by Marlisetto. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

[Nigel Farage]

Because you didn't just say how can I provide these investments? You'd be how do I holistically provide everything? How do I bring in the legal, the accounting, all this and do it at a price point? No one else is doing it.

[Fraser Nelson]

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