Podcast Summary: "People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters"

Podcast: The Story (The Times)
Date: March 27, 2026
Hosts: Manveen Rana, Luke Jones
Key Guest: Chris Stokel Walker (Technology & Digital Culture Journalist)

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode explores the rapid rise and evolving impact of online prediction markets, focusing especially on their role during contemporary conflicts like the war in the Middle East. The discussion analyzes how these markets, operating on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow people to bet on real-world geopolitical events, including wars—sometimes with uncanny accuracy. The episode interrogates the ethical, legal, and societal consequences of this increasingly mainstream phenomenon, including concerns about insider information and the broader gamification of global crises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise of Prediction Markets

• Definition and Origins:

  • Prediction markets let users place bets on the outcome of future events (politics, wars, sports, etc.), blurring lines between gambling and speculation.
  • After the U.S. Supreme Court legalized sports betting in 2018, platforms like Kalshi (2018) and Polymarket (2020) seized on the new regulatory environment, especially leveraging the rise of cryptocurrency.

    "It becomes far more acceptable. And then ... you see adverts for betting platforms, betting companies on television and all sorts of things." –Chris Stokel Walker, 12:03

• Growth and Scale:

  • Market value soared by 400% between 2024 and 2025, now worth $64 billion overall.
  • Individual markets see tens of millions in bets, such as the $49M currently wagered on whether the war in Iran ends by year-end (07:16, 08:28).

2. Prediction Markets & War

• Betting on Conflict:

  • People bet on when wars will end, when key attacks or ceasefires occur, or even who will rule a country like Iran.

    "You'll see people betting on when the war will end, when US Ground forces might enter Iranian territory." –Narrator, 02:25

  • Recent U.S. strikes on Iran and earlier events like the Venezuela raid saw unusually accurate, high-value bets laid just before the events happened (18:45, 20:09).

• Accuracy and Allegations of Insider Trading:

  • Founder of Polymarket claims it's now "the most accurate forecast of geopolitical events in existence." (03:00)

    "It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball." —Polymarket Founder (03:00)

  • Scrutiny follows after bets apparently anticipate attacks or policy moves, raising concerns about insider trading and national security (03:12, 24:05).
  • Israeli authorities recently arrested individuals for using classified information to bet on military actions (24:05).

3. The Evolution and Social Impact

• From Niche Hobby to Mass Engagement:

  • Once specialized for crypto-savvy or techy communities, prediction markets went mainstream during volatile periods—especially following political surprises, such as Joe Biden’s precipitous drop in the 2024 US election (14:14-15:57).

    "It was his really poor performance in that 2024 US presidential debate that I think energized this space." –Chris Stokel Walker, 14:18

  • Massive sums were wagered—$3.6 billion on the 2024 US election alone. A single French punter reportedly made $85 million (15:57).

    "One individual trader... bet $30 million on Donald Trump winning. He ended up making $85 million on that bet." –Chris Stokel Walker, 15:57

• Gamification and Ethical Concerns:

  • Betting on serious human events—wars, assassinations, national disasters—turns global upheaval into a game (07:27, 34:18).
  • The host and guest reflect unease:

    "I think it detaches us from the humanity. The fact that you can effectively bet on assassinations is really horrific when you think about it." –Chris Stokel Walker, 34:18

4. Regulation and Legal Pushback

• Regulatory Grayzone:

  • US markets are regulated as commodity exchanges, not traditional gambling; this creates loopholes and patchy oversight (09:36, 10:57).

  • Some states (Arizona, Nevada) have brought lawsuits or banned platforms for enabling bets on politics or war (17:03, 27:17).

    "Arizona... charged Kalshi with allowing people to make illegal bets on election outcomes, using a state level law..." –Chris Stokel Walker, 27:17

  • The US “Bet Off Act” would ban wagers on war, terrorism, and other sensitive events (27:17).

  • Polymarket and Kalshi have updated rules to ban insider trading, restrict political candidates from betting on their own campaigns, and prohibit participants in events (like athletes) from wagering on them (29:03).

5. Potential Influence on Real-World Events

• Markets as Crystal Ball—or Steering Wheel?

  • Extremely accurate prediction odds potentially serve as early-warning signals for rivals and governments.

    "If you’re watching them very closely, you might be able to see what's happening and if you're a country, you might be able to respond accordingly." –Manveen Rana, 31:30

  • The gamification can even change behavior: companies have altered earnings calls to fulfill prediction market bets (31:33-32:22).

  • Governments and militaries might attempt to manipulate markets with disinformation, risking both national security and the integrity of the platforms (33:19).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Mindset Shift:

  "Everything almost seems like a game." —Chris Stokel Walker (07:27)

• On Uncanny Predictions:

  "A number of punters have reportedly made about a million US dollars by correctly predicting when the United States would strike Iran at the weekend." —Chris Stokel Walker (02:38)

• On Regulation’s Tightrope:

  "People like the opportunity to kind of strike it rich... They don’t like it if they think that the markets are fundamentally rigged against them. And that is the tightrope the platforms are having to walk." —Chris Stokel Walker (25:52)

• On the Ethical Line:

  "We're not just losing money here, we're potentially losing our humanity." —Chris Stokel Walker (34:18)

• On Potential Manipulation:

  "As an Israeli or as someone in the Israeli military, do you then start to try and seed false information to kind of give an indication that things are going in one direction and actually they're going in another? ... The problem... at the core of this, you don't just have two governments... you also have some bettors... they're the ones that ultimately would lose out because you're seeding false information." —Chris Stokel Walker (33:19)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction to Prediction Markets & War: 01:36 – 03:12
• Market Mechanics, Growth, and Main Players: 04:30 – 10:43
• UK/US Comparison and Regulatory Differences: 10:43 – 12:03
• Legalization of Sports Betting/Origins of Kalshi & Polymarket: 12:03 – 13:58
• Mainstreaming After Political Upheaval: 14:14 – 15:57
• Massive Bets/Examples of Winnings: 15:57 – 17:03
• Political Connections and Market Expansion: 17:15 – 18:45
• Cases of Uncanny Prediction (Venezuela, Iran): 18:45 – 21:13
• Insider Trading and Legal Pushback: 24:05 – 27:17
• State/Federal Regulatory Action, Companies’ Response: 27:17 – 30:23
• Potential to Influence Real Events/Business Example: 31:07 – 32:22
• Gamification, Disinformation, & Societal Impact: 33:19 – 34:18

Conclusion

The episode highlights the astonishing power—and deep ethical pitfalls—of prediction markets, especially as they increasingly intersect with war, politics, and global crises. While these markets can offer real-time insight into how informed crowds view world events, they risk becoming vectors for unethical profits, insider trading, and the trivialization of deeply serious subjects. As bet sizes and stakes escalate, governments and platforms alike are scrambling to keep pace, searching for regulatory solutions that balance innovation, transparency, fairness, and basic human decency.

For comments and feedback: thestory@thetimes.com

Producers: Sophie McNulty, Julia Webster
Executive Producer: Tim Walklate